1

Covid-19 Webinar:The “Great Reset”?

2Contents

2

Covid-19 & Travel Restrictions

3

4

Macro Travel and Shopping Forecasts

The “Great Reset” of Consumer Behaviour?

1

Latest Shopping Trends

33

Things are slowly improving…

44

Covid-19 & Travel Restrictions

55

COVID-19 Impact on the World’s Top Economies

Source: Global Data

GDP Growth(2020 Estimate)

United States 2,113,372 6,385 116,135 5.5% 4,984 72.14 1.2% -6.4%

China 83,221 58 4,634 5.6% 504 74.52 0.6% 0.8%

Japan 17,439 138 929 5.3% 2,171 36.9 -3.7% -5.0%

Germany 187,682 2,240 8,807 4.7% 1,378 53.57 -5.3% -6.4%

India 332,424 241 9,520 2.9% 273 76.19 -13.6% -1.3%

United Kingdom 298,315 4,394 41,821 14.0% 452 76.19 -15.0% -8.9%

France 194,305 2,977 29,439 15.2% 500 69.05 -12.7% -9.0%

Italy 237,290 3,925 34,371 14.5% 921 53.57 -15.6% -10.6%

Brazil 888,271 4,179 43,959 4.9% 236 76.9 -31.3% -6.1%

Canada 100,763 2,670 8,228 8.2% 144 70.95 -7.2% -6.1%

(YTD Change)

Stimulus ($ Bill ion)

Stringency IndexCountries Confirmed

Cases

Cases per

Million CapitaDeaths

Case Fatality

RateMarket Index

Note: Case Fatality Rate is the ratio of total death to total confirmed case. Market Index data is based on MSCI index of respective country. GDP growth estimates are based on consensus data from various analysts and firms. Stringency index, created by Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), is the aggregated score based on several different common policy responses governments have taken, such as school and workplace closures and restrictions on travel and gatherings etc.

66

Most sectors have been negatively affectedEmployee layoffs play a significant role across sectors

Fears of a second wave in China have led to renewed uncertainty in recent days

Online penetration set to rise significantly as COVID-19 attracted new customers to digital shopping

The global slowdown in foodservice will result in a net loss of market value of US$1tn

Falling demand and geopolitical ambitions are greatly impacting this sector

Reduced footfall drives a shift online and shakes out weaker operators

The long-term prospects for payments look bright as consumers shift to electronic tools over cash

Travel & TourismImpact Level

ApparelImpact Level

RetailImpact Level

FoodserviceImpact Level

Oil & GasImpact Level

PaymentsImpact Level

Source: Global Data

77

Notable Travel Restrictions

Source: Global Data

NORTH AMERICA & CARRIBEANBahamas: Borders are closed.

Canada: Passengers are not allowed to enter Canada. Certain exceptions apply, most notably for some passengers arriving from the United States.

United States: Passengers who have transited or have been in Austria, Belgium, China (People's Rep.), Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Iran, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland or in the United Kingdom (excluding overseas territories outside of Europe), in the past 14 days are not allowed to enter the USA. Certain exceptions apply.

SOUTH AMERICAArgentina: Passengers are not allowed to enter Argentina. Certainexceptions apply.

Brazil: Passengers are not allowed to enter Brazil. Certain exceptionsapply.

MENAEgypt: Flights to Egypt are suspended.

Morocco: Flights to Morocco are suspended.

South Africa: Flights to South Africa are suspended. Certain exceptions apply.

Saudi Arabia: Passengers are not allowed to enter Saudi Arabia..

UAE: Dubai will start to welcome foreign tourists from 7 July 2020

88

Notable Travel Restrictions

Source: Global Data

EUROPEBrussels have asked EU governments to reboot free travel from June 15 —but that doesn’t mean Schengen is fully revived.EU leaders continue ban on a number of countries, including the US

France: Passengers arriving from a non-Schengen Member State are not allowed to enter France. Certain exceptions apply.

Spain: Tourists will no longer need to quarantine for 14 days from July 1.

UK: A two-week quarantine period for anyone arriving in the UK has been in force since June 8. Arrivals have to provide an address where they will remain for 14 days. People not adhering to the rules risk fines.

ASIA-PACIFCAustralia: Passengers are not allowed to enter Australia. Certain exceptions apply.

China: Temporarily suspended entry by foreign nationals holding visas or residence permits still valid to the time of this announcement, effective from 00:00 local time, 28 March 2020. Entry by foreign nationals with APEC Business Travel Cards also suspended.

99

China 5-1 (Five-One) Policy

Source: Civil Aviation Administration of China

Dubbed the Five-One policy, the rule limits all Chinese airlines to one international flight per week to each country.

Foreign airlines can fly into China no more than once per week.

No flight should be filled to more than 75% of capacity

1010

Infection Peak and Decline Forecasts for Select Countries

Source: Global Data

Date MAR APR MAY JUN JUL

(Weeks) 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 20 27

US

Brazil

Russia

UK

India

Spain

Italy

Peru

France

Germany

Iran

Estimated Recovery Weeks and Decline to Zero New Cases for Top Infected Countries (Excluding China)

Note: Trends from China showed a steep drop after reaching peak. However, recent trends from US, UK, Italy, Spain, and other markets showed slower declines after peak than China, and in some markets, a long extended plateau without obvious peak or decline. Recovery forecast will now be trended along the new running average model taking into account the more drawn out recovery observed in recent weeks unless data suggests otherwise. Additional surges after initial peak are also likely due to countries opening up

1111

Latest Shopping Trends

1212

Tax Free Shopping Summary: YTD

Tax Free sales turnover

Vouchers / transactions

Avg. transaction Values

France -60% -60% 0%

United Kingdom -49% -52% +6%

Italy -67% -67% -1%

Spain -62% -62% -1%

Germany -56% -58% 6%

Top 5 destination markets

Tax Free sales turnover

Vouchers / transactions

Avg. transaction Values

China -66% -71% 17%

USA -63% -68% 16%

Russia -53% -53% 0%

South Korea -55% -52% -7%

Taiwan -62% -61% -2%

-58%Total sales

-59%Total vouchers

+1%Total ATV

1313

Tax Free Sales reached ‘Ground Zero’ around mid-March…

30%13% 14%

37%

-18%-34%

-18% -21%-40%

-61%

-93%wc 5 Jan wc 12 Jan wc 19 Jan wc 26 Jan wc 2 Feb wc 9 Feb wc 16 Feb wc 23 Feb wc 1 Mar wc 8 Mar wc 15 Mar

Europe Y-Y Sales (%)

69%

15% 22%62%

-48%-81% -74% -73% -70% -86% -97%

wc 5 Jan wc 12 Jan wc 19 Jan wc 26 Jan wc 2 Feb wc 9 Feb wc 16 Feb wc 23 Feb wc 1 Mar wc 8 Mar wc 15 Mar

Chinese Tourist Y-Y Sales (%)

50%18% 22% 20% 9% 10% 19% 3%

-18%-58%

-97%

wc 5 Jan wc 12 Jan wc 19 Jan wc 26 Jan wc 2 Feb wc 9 Feb wc 16 Feb wc 23 Feb wc 1 Mar wc 8 Mar wc 15 Mar

American Tourist Y-Y Sales (%)

Source: Planet

25th Jan 2020: CNY 2020

30th Jan 2020: WHO declares outbreak as Public Health

Emergency of Int’l Concern (PHEIC) 5th Feb 2020:

CNY 2019

8th Mar 2020: Italy lockdown announcement

11th Mar 2020: WHO declares virus as a pandemic

1414

…however, there are signals of a recovery

wc 29 Mar wc 05 Apr wc 12 Apr wc 19 Apr wc 26 Apr wc 03 May wc 10 May wc 17 May wc 24 May wc 31 May wc 07 Jun wc 14 Jun

Weekly Sales (€)

-98.6%

+272.8%

-33.3%

+280.1%

+20.9%

+200.7%

+36.7% +41.1% +34.0% +22.6% +29.8%+81.0%

wc 29 Mar wc 05 Apr wc 12 Apr wc 19 Apr wc 26 Apr wc 03 May wc 10 May wc 17 May wc 24 May wc 31 May wc 07 Jun wc 14 Jun

W-W Sales Growth (%)

-99.5% -99.5% -99.5% -99.4% -99.4% -99.2% -99.1% -98.9% -98.7% -98.7% -98.5%

-96.6%

wc 29 Mar wc 05 Apr wc 12 Apr wc 19 Apr wc 26 Apr wc 03 May wc 10 May wc 17 May wc 24 May wc 31 May wc 07 Jun wc 14 Jun

Y-Y Sales Growth (%)

Source: Planet

1515

Tax Free Shopping Sales: 14 to 20 Jun 2020

-91%

-94%

-87%

-97%

-97%

-95%

GB

FR

DE

IT

ES

Rest

Sales Y-Y (%)Top Destinations

-94%

-90%

-75%

-90%

-97%

-95%

Paris

London

Manchester

Frankfurt Am Main

Milan

Rest

Sales Y-Y (%)

Top Cities

-96%

-92%

-86%

-97%

-94%

Apparel - Luxury

Department Store

Watches & Jewellery

Apparel - Mainstream

Rest

Sales Y-Y (%)

Top Categories

-93%

-97%

Full Price

Outlet

Sales Y-Y (%)

Outlet vs Full Price

Source: Planet

15%

21%

29%

13%

9%

13%

10%

12%

20%

10%

13%

34%

€0-250

€250-750

€750-3k

€3-5k

€5-10k

GT €10k

Sales Mix (%) wc 16 Jun2019

wc 20 Jun2020

Tax Free Shopping Sales Mix by Band

1616

Payments data highlights rebound in domestic consumption14 to 20 Jun 2020

64%

-49%

-61%

-90%

-16%

-79%

Grocery Stores, Supermarkets

Clothing Stores

Department Stores

Hotel & Lodging

Electronic Sales

Rest

Sales Y-Y (%)

Top Categories

-40%

-63%

-84%

Domestic

EU

Non-EU

Sales Y-Y (%)Domestic vs EU vs Non-EU

Source: Planet

1717

Footfall and Scheduled seat capacity are gradually returning….

Source: Routesonline, ShopperTrak

-56.7%

-29.9%

-44.9%

-44.8%

-38.1%

-100.0%

-90.0%

-80.0%

-70.0%

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

wc 29Mar

wc 05Apr

wc 12Apr

wc 19Apr

wc 26Apr

wc 03May

wc 10May

wc 17May

wc 24May

wc 31May

wc 07Jun

wc 14Jun

Store Footfall – Traffic Index - Aggregated by Week

UK FR

IT ES

DE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Dep

artu

re S

eats

(Mill

ions

)

Scheduled Weekly Capacity By Region

Africa APAC

Europe LATAM

Middle East North America

1818

Macro Travel and Shopping Forecasts

1919

The consensus is a global recession…

-2.6%

-6.4%

0.8%

-5.0%

-6.4%

-1.3%

-8.9%

-9.0%

-10.6%

-6.1%

-6.1%

-4.7%

-13.0%

-5.1%

-7.1%

-8.4%

-4.5%

-13.6%

-11.3%

-18.0%

-11.6%

-11.5%

2.6%

-3.4%

3.3%

-1.8%

-5.0%

0.8%

-4.5%

-5.1%

-7.0%

-1.8%

1.7%

-18% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%

Real GDP Growth (%) Rate Projections

Low Estimate Mean Estimate High Estimate

India

UK

France

Italy

Brazil

Canada

Worldwide

Germany

Japan

China

US

Source: Global Data

2020

With so many differing views pertaining to international travel, it is hard to predict the future of international travel.

From the early days of the pandemic, below were a range of 12-18month predictions from various bodies…

International tourists arrivals forecasts in 2020

Source: IATA, UNWTO, Bain & Co

20-30%Reduction Forecast

44%Reduction Forecast

15-35%Reduction Forecast

(-100%)

(-80%)

(-60%)

(-40%)

(-20%)

0%

20%

% c

hange Y

ear-

on-y

ear

At this stage, predicting travel volumes over the net 12-18 months is near impossible…

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Impact of Recession

Q4 50% recovery international

markets, reduced by recession

Q3 recovery domestic

markets, reduced by recession

impact

Q2 Q3 Q4

Demand RPK Y-Y -82% -56% -33%

Global RPK Growth

2121

A “Nike Swoosh” Recovery

Source: UNWTO , IATA, Heathrow

UNWTO scenarios projection for International Travel(Y/Y monthly change, %)

Global airline traffic expectations (% decrease vs. 2019)

+2%

(9%)

(57%)

(100%)

(80%)

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

+0%Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec-20

Actual Data Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1

(78)%

(70)%

(58)%

• Scenario 1 ; (58)% vs. FY19: based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early July 2020

• Scenario 2 ; (70)%: based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early September 2020

• Scenario 3 ; (78)%: based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions only in early December 2020

Q2’20 Q3’20 Q4’20 FY20

IATA -85% -60% -33% -48%

UNWTO #1 (1) -85% -65% -35% -58%

UNWTO #2 (1) -85% -85% -65% -70%

UNWTO #3 (1) -85% -85% -80% -78%

40

60

80

100

120

140

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

International RPK’s will lag domestic air travel marketsInternational air travel may not recover to 2019 levels until 2023-24

Global domestic and international RPK’s, indexed 2019=100

Domestic RPK’s

International RPK’s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

(-100%)

(-80%)

(-60%)

(-40%)

(-20%)

0%

20%

Ja

n-2

0

Feb

-20

Mar-

20

Apr-

20

May-2

0

Ju

n-2

0

Ju

l-20

Aug

-20

Sep

-20

Oct-

20

No

v-2

0

De

c-2

0

Ja

n-2

1

Feb

-21

Mar-

21

Apr-

21

May-2

1

Ju

n-2

1

Ju

l-21

Aug

-21

Sep

-21

Oct-

21

No

v-2

1

De

c-2

1

Passengers

(m

)

% c

hange v

s 2

019

Heathrow expects a staged recovery in traffic over the course of H2 2020 and 2021

2222Source: https://www.ft.com/content/149c4be8-9fd9-46ff-a161-86f3ef86a2d6

China will drive the rebound in luxury but it will be domestically

By nationality By region

By channel By generation

2019 estimates

2025 forecasts

2019 estimates

2025 forecasts

2019 estimates

2025 forecasts

2019 estimates

2025 forecasts

Bricks & mortar

Chinese

Americans

EuropeansJapanese

Other

Online

Europe

Americans

Other Asia

China

OtherJapan

Gen Z

Gen Y

Gen X

Baby Boomers

Silent Gen

Bain & Co - Estimated Luxury Sales - % of Total

2323

PESTEL Analysis: International Tourist Sales Impact

Source: Planet

2424

PESTEL Analysis: International Tourist Sales Impact

Source: Planet

2525

Chinese policies to boost domestic consumption

2626

The “Great Reset” of Consumer Behaviour?

2727

As incomes have decreased, many are not planning on increasing spend

Source: McKinsey & Co

Many with Higher number of Covid-19 cases

2828

However, consumers report that they miss travelling more than anything else: US, UK, IT & FR

Source: https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/covid-consumer-sentiment-survey-snapshot-5-18-20.aspx

Leisure travel

Restaurant diningOut-of-home entertainment

Out-of-home entertainmentRestaurant dining

Business travelCosmeticsAccessories,

fashion

Women’s clothing

Accessories, fashion

Public transportation

Gambling(ranks lower in other developed markets)

Most missed categoriesTravel and tourism related

01

02

03

04

05

Rank

60%-69%

18%-36%

“can’t wait to start travelling again”

“can see themselves going on a vacation

this summer”

Gen Z and Millennials (18-40) Gen X (41-55)

Baby boomers+(56+)

Highest quartile

Lowest quartile

Age Household income per capita

>

2929

Eight potential consumer shifts and attitudes as a result of COVID-19

01ConsciousSpendingConsumer will likely become conscious and planned spenders as the future of the economy becomes uncertain

05SafeEnvironmentsSafety of interaction inspace will potentiallybecome an expectationfor some consumers

02Engaging E-CommerceE-commerceConsumers will likelyexpect an even moreinclusive, convenient andengaging E-commerceexperience

06WellbeingConsumers will likelyprioritise their physicaland mental wellbeingas remote working,social distancing anduncertainty prevails

03SustainabilityConsumers are likelyto become moresustainable in theirbehaviours andexpectations

07Closer ProximityConsumer are likely to travel domestically andshop in local and shortdistance stores

04Trust andPositive ImpactConsumers will be likelyto trust and support asmall set of brands thatdeliver positive impactand encourage consumerinvolvement

08SmallConsumer are likely toprefer smaller shoppingspaces, avoiding largecrowded space suchas malls

Source: McKinsey & Co, Planet

Prolonged time at home

Reduced Income Restricted movement Increased Anxiety

Global change in experience…

…a Global “reset” in behaviour?

3030

3C Acquisition

payments amplified

• 3C Payment operate the world’s leading hospitality payment gateway

• Wide range of strategic partnerships with world leading Property Management System and POS providers, supporting retail, hospitality, F&B & transport partners

• Ability to offer its customers revenue generating products such as acquiring, currency conversion and VAT refund processing as part of the customer payment journey

• Together, we will process almost 800 million transactions (€45bn) for businesses serving nearly 600,000 merchants worldwide

3131

Q & A

3232