Upload
winifred-warner
View
215
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
CPA
CPA
Presented to AIChE, Metro New York SectionNew York Institute of Technology, Gallery 61 Studio
16 West 61st Street - 11th Floor (61st Street and Broadway), NYC
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010
Howard R. Blum & Lee DiestelowChemicals & Plastics Advisory “CPA”Ambler, PAContact: +1-215-802-0052
May 17, 2010
CPA
Background
Fuels
Chemicals
Polymers
Conclusion
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 2
CPA Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 3
Background
CPA Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 4
Biomass is not new – it has always been here - trees, grasses, other plants, and the sea (e.g. algae) , and of course animals
Ironically, fossil fuels come from very ancient biomass sources, but are not considered biomass because the contained carbon has been "out" of the carbon cycle for a long time Therefore, fossil fuel emissions such as CO2 or CO are “additive” to the overall content
of today’s atmospheric carbon gases and considered by many as an environmental problem
Examples of fuels derived from biomass: wood chips, methane, ethanol & bio-diesel Outside the fuels market, the global chemical industry, including polymers is estimated to
exceed $3 Tril. in sales Chemicals enable many adjacent industries such as pharmaceuticals & healthcare, paints
& coatings, adhesives, packaging, building products, soap & detergents and many more There are literally hundreds of biomass derived chemicals including bio-ethylene, various
polyols, propanediol, surfactants and many types of specialties for personal care There are also many types of biomass derived polymers, such as bio-polyethylene,
polylactic acid (PLA), polyhydroxy alkanoate (PHA), epoxy resins, alkyd resins, regenerated cellulosics and many more
Chemicals and polymers, combined with adjacent end use sectors represent a broad and fertile potential for biomass derivatives
CPA
Economically attractive biomass conversion, and therefore successful monetization of biomass feedstock and its derivatives, are partly based on the competitive price point for using competitive fossil fuels and derivatives
Government legislation of laws and codes that promote biomass conversion will play a strong role in terms of numerous impact-points; e.g.
Tax incentives to produce biomass feedstocks and biofuels
Carbon trading and carbon taxes
Rules on environmental outputs; e.g. VOCs
The public’s interest to consume so-called “green” products has seen exceptional motivation since oil price escalation in mid-2008 and the general mistrust of the political system
Therefore, competitive technology and raw material sourcing will be key ingredients in achieving success in bio-derivatives
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 5
CPA Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 6
Ultimately, routes to Biorenewability succeed if they enable economic paths to complete the Carbon-cycle – from biomass to derivatives & back again
CPA Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 7
Fuels
CPA
6996
1882
1033
996
958
827
506
1377BBL/Day (000)
Domestic Production
Canada
Mexico
Nigeria
Saudia Arabia
Venezuela
Iraq
25 Others
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 8
US Crude Oil Sources, 2009
CPA
2010 2022
10084
1015
0 21non-Corn Starch- pirrenial crops, forest sources, waste oil greases, virgin plant oils,algea Corn Starch
Hydrocarbon
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 9
Production Targets and Projected Fuel Demand
CPA Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 10
RFS1 notes 7.5 BG in
2012
RFS2: Higher renewable fuel volumes by 2012 and beyond
CPA
Renewable Fuel Standard RFS2 was set by EISA 2007
The EPA Administers Transportation Bio-fuels; biofuel production requirements were recently revised (Feb 2010), adjusting cellulosic ethanol timeframe & clarifying biofuel sources
Biofuel production requirements: Implementation timeframe adjusted to reflect R&D reality
9.0 Bil. Gal. in 2008 & 12.95 Bil. Gal. in 2010
36.0 Bil. Gal.- 2022 (requires 21.0 Bil. Gal. from cellulosic ethanol)
Four types of fuel described as CBAR (60% GHG reduction of lifecycle emissions by 2022 vs the RFS1 commercial gasoline pool of 2005):
Type C Cellulosic Biofuels must show a 60% GHG reduction – (produce 16 BG)
Type B Biomass-Based Diesel must show a 50% GHG reduction – (produce >1 BG TBD)
Type A Advanced Biofuels must show at least a 50% GHG reduction – (produce 21 BG)
Type R Renewable fuel (total) must show at least a 20% GHG reduction – 37 BG)
Existing ethanol production facilities are subject to grandfathering requirements that exempt them from the GHG performance requirements for a defined period of time
RFS2 further supports:
Corn Ethanol, Advanced- Ethanol, other alcohols (butanol), multiple feed stocks- cellulose, ligno-cellulose, algae, and biodiesel
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 11
GHG=Green House Gases
CPA
The energy debate: how do we perceive the balance of energy? Energy Inputs > or = or < Energy Output (how to measure)? Inputs must be less than outputs to win the argument – use LCA LCA (Life Cycle Analysis) includes:
Energy Input from all Sources- Raw Material Production, Supply Chain, Processing Water Consumption Fertilizer
ETOH – Easiest & most common – but not the best source Corn – Energy balance is open to debate, But USDA studies
confirm viability of corn as a feed stock Non-food sources are cellulosics…
Rice straw Corn Stover Bagasse Corn Fiber Dedicated Energy Crops
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 12
CPA Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 13
Major Liquid Fuels
FuelEnergydensity
Air-fuelratio
Specificenergy
Heat ofvaporization RON MON
Gasoline & biogasoline
32 MJ/L 14.6 2.9 MJ/kg air 0.36 MJ/kg 91–99 81–89
Butanol fuel 29.2 MJ/L 11.1 3.2 MJ/kg air 0.43 MJ/kg 96 78
Ethanol fuel 19.6 MJ/L 9.0 3.0 MJ/kg air 0.92 MJ/kg 107 89
Methanol 16 MJ/L 6.4 3.1 MJ/kg air 1.2 MJ/kg 106 92
[e
CPA Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 14
Thermochemical Reactor
Biochemical Pyrolysis
Proven commercial equipment exists for biofuels from ligno-cellulosics Thermochemical Rx
Equipment &Biochem. Pyrolysis
Source: European Biofuels Technical Platform- Biofuel STP.EU
CPA
1st Generation Biofuels
Ethanol- Clean burning oxygenate, high octane gasoline replacement & extender Commercial since 1970’s Brazil, US New studies confirm favorable net
energy balance 1.67:1 (neg. in 1990s) USDA- 2002, 2004- 34% more energy
released than put in Corn ethanol is cost competitive with
gasoline when crude is priced above $50/BBL; ($30/BBL sugar cane)
Has a 35% gain in the bushel/ lb fertilizer; yield per acre up 50% to 125 BU/Acre
Biodiesel- high cetane, sulfur free alternative for diesel and heating oil Europe commercialized in 1990’s
2nd Generation Biofuels
R&D Efforts- Increasing range of feedstocks
(cellulosics; e.g. corn stover) Reducing biomass to liquid costs Two technology platforms
o Biochemical path- cellulose to sugars followed by fermentation to alcohols (C2, C4)
o Thermochemical path- gasification to syngas followed by synthesis to fuels
Commercial renewable diesel plants being built
CPA
DOE’s Joint BioEnergy Institute (JBEI) - engineered a strain of E-Coli for advanced biofuel from biomass
‘Permitting’ concerns exist over use of GMO’s - an issue dependent on local regulations
E-coli produces fatty acids that are bound to carrier proteins; accumulation of bound fatty acids limits production of additional fatty acid
E-coli are efficient in the use of energy and don’t produce excess fatty acid. By breaking the bond with the carrier protein, additional fatty acid will be produced
This diverts fatty acid metabolism to produce fuels & chemicals from glucose
JBEI E-Coli strain of enzymatic bacteria produce hemicellulose (complex sugars - the major portion of biomass)
In the same step, the enzymes can ferment the hemicellulose
E-Coli that ferments both cellulose and hemicellulose eliminates the need for costly enzymes; greatly improves economics of Biofuels - maximizes conversion efficiency
Furthermore, the costs of recovering biodiesel are less than cost to distill ethanol
CPA
Algae to:Methanol, Ethanol, Butanol & Biodiesel
Major Players in Algae based Bio-fuels
2nd Generation 15 start ups demonstrate viability Backing is coming from major energy
producers like Shell, BP and Chevron
Bio-butanol Butamax: DuPont & BP JV
demonstration Conventional feedstocks include corn
and sugarcane But will move into cellulosics
(grasses and corn stalks) and even algae lipid feedstock
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 17
CPA
Corn starch
While under considerable scrutiny, Corn starch routes to ETOH appear to have a positive energy balance using current data
Scalability and demand vs. food supply use remain an issue; (public’s perception)
Targets are being met
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 18
Ligno-cellulosics
Advances in Enzyme technology are improving economicsSupply Chain Logistics and material handling techniques are being improved & proven Commercial material preparation methods are being adapted for new processes
Algae and Bacterial derived Fuels
Demonstrated technologies can produce biodiesel and bioethanolScale up and efficiency gains are required for sustainable businesses
CPA Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 19
Chemicals
CPA20Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010
The NREL and DOE have proposed a very complex biobased product flow
Source: NREL / DOE
CPA
The 12 building block chemicals are produced from sugars via biological or chemical conversions, and subsequently converted to a number of high-value bio-based chemicals or materials
The building block chemicals are molecules with multiple functional groups that possess the potential to be transformed into new families of useful molecules, including:
• 1,4 succinic, fumaric and malic acids• 2,5 furan dicarboxylic acid• 3 hydroxy propionic acid• aspartic acid• glucaric acid• glutamic acid• itaconic acid• levulinic acid• 3-hydroxybutyrolactone• glycerol• sorbitol• Xylitol / arabinitol
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 21
CPA22Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010
Various pathways exist for creating the building blocks
Source: NREL / DOE
• The top building blocks and their derivatives can be converted in a two-part pathway:
1st part is the transformation of sugars to the building blocks
2nd part is the conversion of the building blocks to secondary chemicals or families of derivatives
• Biological conversion account for the majority of routes from plant feedstocks to building blocks, but going from the building blocks to derivatives uses chemical conversion routes
• The challenges and complexity of conversion pathways means that R&D still needs to improve the production economics
CPA23Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010
3-Hydroxypropionic acid & succinic acid are good example of building block conversion to various intermediates
The acrylics chain
&Polyesters,
Polyurethanes
BDO & its derivatives, THF
& Pyrrolidone
Source: NREL / DOE
CPA Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 24
Polymers
CPA
Ironically, biopolymers are more than 100 years old and led much of the early commercial success for petrochemical analogues
Today we see co-mingling of bio and synthetic polymers in many applications
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 25
1839 1862 1863 190818941872
Natural Rubber (Goodyear)
Cellulose Nitrate; films & billiard balls
Parkesine; molded cellulose
Polyvinylchloride (PVC)
Viscose Rayon; regen. cellulose fibers
Cellophane film (viscose based)
Polymer Timeline; Biopolymers – The First PolymersPolymer Timeline; Biopolymers – The First Polymers
1909
Bakelite; phenol-formaldehyde resin
PetrochemPolymers
100 YEARS >>>
2009
BiopolymersRe-emerge
CPA
Global polymer value approaches $600 million Over the last ten years, Asia has become the leader in global polymer share of demand Thermoplastics represent more than 65% of all global polymer demand
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 26
Regional Polymer Demand Share, 2008 Estimate
Europe 25%
N. America25%
Asia Pacific35%
ROW 15%
World Consumption of All Polymers, 2008250 million MT (550 billion lb.)
Biorenewable ?
Bio-building blocks or Biopolymers or biomaterials ?
Biodegradable ?
Biosustainable ?
Bioplastics ?
CPA
Biopolymer demand is a fraction of total polymer demand
Highest demand biopolymers include starch-based, cellulosics, polyesters and polyurethanes
It is interesting to note that thermoplastics are perceived more ‘green’ than thermosets due to their inherent melt-processable recyclability.
Biopolymer thermoplastics will therefore provide a unique blend of biorenewability and recyclability, especially for consumer needs. But, this only works if active recycling exists
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 27
Biopolymer Global Demand, 2007-2008 Estimate
Developing Markets
25%
Key CommercialProducts
80%
World Consumption of Biopolymers, 2007-08600 Thousand MT (1.3 billion lb.)
• Epoxy resins• Bio-polyethylene• Bio-PVC• Bio-nylons (11 and 610)• PDO-based• Poly-succinates• Bio-elastomers & rubber• PPC (CO2 based) e.g. pp-carbonate
• Starch blends• PLA• Cellulosics e.g. viscose & regen.
• Alkyds (vegetable oil based)• Bio-polyols (urethanes)• PDO-based e.g. PTT, other polyesters• PHA
CPA
Cost of fossil-fuels is likely the most impacting on future competitive acceptance of biopolymers Monomer feedstock costs for the incumbent petrochemical derived polymers, are generally the most
impacting cost element in the overall manufacturing process Therefore, the competitive price-point for biopolymers is very much influenced by the cost
relationship of the incumbent fossil-fuel derived polymers
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 28
Eco
no
mic
Via
bil
ity
$40 + > $100$75
Epoxies
Polyethylene
Poly-succinates
PDO-polyesters
Polylactic acid
Polyhydroxy- alkanoates
Bio-polyols(urethanes)
Starch-Blends
Crude Price ($/bbl)
Biopolymer Economic Viability vs. Crude oil Pricing
We are here today
CPA
There are many new biopolymer suppliers and technologies that have created a broad portfolio of grades suitable for both commodity and performance end uses
Many producers provide a much stronger asset base than existed in previous years – a ‘critical mass’ large enough to self-perpetuate as long as demand maintains
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 29
CPA Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 30
De
gre
e o
f B
io-D
eg
rad
ab
ilit
y (
%)
100%Bio
100 %FossilDegree of Bio-Renewability vs. Fossil Fuel (%)
Glycerin from Bio-Diesel Soy & Castor Oils:
For Polyols-UPR & PU
Product Biorenewability - Illustrative
0
100
Polymer / Natural Fibers Compounds & Composites
Polylactic Acid (PLA)NatureWorksPoly-Hydroxy
Alkanoate (PHA)Metabolix (Telles)
others
Naphtha or Gas to C2 & C3
olefins to PE & PP Resins
DuPont SoronaBio-PDO to PTT,
PU, PTMEG Fibers/Elastomers
Cargill Ecoflex Modified Aliphatic
Polyester
Cargill Ecovia Compound of Ecoflex & PLA
Dow & Braskem Bio-PE from Sugar
cane
Bio-Epoxy/Composites Dow: Glycerin to ECH
Non-starch Bio-
Degradable Compounds
Bio-Succinates Polymer Derivatives
Novomer CO2 Bio-polycarbonate
Provided by courtesy of Kline & Company
Bio-Degradable Starch
Compounds
CPA Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 31
Conclusion
CPA
In conclusion, the issue of whether biorenewable processes and products can succeed can be viewed as: “not if, but when”?
We continue to undergo an extended period of energy transition and economic uncertainty Uncertainties also continue to surround the future of fossil fuels vs. alternative approaches and
the resulting energy costs Although we know another oil shortage is coming, we don’t know when
We however do know that a sufficient critical mass has been built in many chemical sectors that will drive new technologies and new approaches in achieving biorenewable solutions
The resulting new industry dynamics is causing a shift in the competitive position of many producers and in many cases a shift towards biorenewable systems
But, capitalizing on these opportunities and creating greater value will not be easy Longer term however, fossil fuel costs will escalate to economically critical levels and regulations
will drive greater use of biorenewables Just as the petrochemical industry has found success from added-value business models and
integrating production economics, biorenewables will likely adapt analogous models This concept of an integrated approach extends to technology and processes, beginning with
enabling “white biotechnology” such as enzymes & microorganisms and integrated through fuels, to chemical building blocks and monomers to the biopolymers
Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010 32
CPA33Chemicals & Plastics Advisory ©2010
TypicalChemicalProducts
Acetylene
Olefins Coal
SynthesisGas
Aromatics
Oil
BiomassBio-renewables
Energy Generation
NGL‘s
Conclusion, fossil fuels will remain the key feedstock for some time, BUT… biorenewables will increasingly be integrated into all chemical pathways