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(High-Res Soil Models)
+
(Seasonal Forecasts of Temperature and Precipitation) =
(Soil Moisture/Drought Forecasts)
Using Soil Moisture Models to Monitor Drought at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center
“Leaky Bucket” model: a 1-layer hydrological model. Uses observed precip. and temps to calculate soil moisture for a soil column of 1.6 meters.
www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/leaky_glb.htm
NLDAS 1-m and 2-m soil column; 4 separate models and ensemble; versions produced by NOAA EMC and the University of Washington
www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/drought/
The NLDAS uses four land surface models: Noah, Mosaic, SAC and VIC, run in near real-time at the NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center to support the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and US Drought Monitor.
North American Land Data North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDASAssimilation System (NLDAS)
NLDAS
NOAA/NCEP NASA/GSFC
NOAA/OHDPrinceton and
Univ. of Washington
Sponsored by the ClimatePrediction Program
of the Americas (CPPA)
What Goes Into the Models?What Goes Into the Models?Hourly input: gauge precipitation, air temperature, air specific
humidity, wind speed, etc.
Water F
luxes
En
erg
y F
luxe
s
State Variables: soil moisture, soil temperature, skin temperature, snow cover, snow water equivalent, snow depth
“Land data assimilation systems, with their high quality representations of soil moisture, present an ideal platform for drought monitoring….” Brian Cosgrove, NASA GSFC
Using the NLDAS Ensemble Mean Soil Moisture as a Drought Indicator
Ensemble Mean
NCEP Noah
NASA Mosaic
OHD SAC Princeton VIC
Shallow layers of soil moisture can be used as agricultural drought indicators. Model runoff as hydro indicators.
Percentile soil moisture levels correspond to U.S. Drought Monitor levels D0 to D4
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/drought/
CPC U.S. Drought Outlook: Short and Long-Term Forecast Contributions
Start with latest U.S. Drought Monitor D1 areas
Extended Range (e.g.,2-week
Soil Moisture Forecasts)
3-monthPrecipitation and
Temperature Outlooks
Constructed Analogue Soil Model
Medium-Range Fcst
Palmer 4-moProbabilities
CPC Long-LeadPrecip. Outlook
Selected Drought Outlook Inputs
Challenges
• Blending short-term forecasts with seasonal forecasts
• Improving skill of forecasts at all time ranges
• Providing useful information for both the agricultural and hydrologic community
• Next step –develop an objective & probabilistic outlook
Next Step in Drought Forecasting
• A seasonal forecast of drought probabilities
• Consideration of agriculture and hydrology (short-term and long-term drought)
• Inclusion of short-term forecasts
• Potential of 1-Month Outlook (ag related) and Expansion to include Canada/Mexico
Two-Path Approach to Improving Drought Forecasts
Continue to improve current seasonal forecasts
Continue to improve current seasonal forecasts
Develop probabilistic seasonal
forecasts for agriculture and water
supplies
Develop probabilistic seasonal
forecasts for agriculture and water
supplies
Quantitative forecasts bring improvement
Improved Drought Forecasting and Early Warning
NLDAS land models can be linked to downscaled seasonal forecast models to produce soil moisture and drought probability forecasts NOAA’s Climate
Prediction Center is working with its partners to develop operational numerical drought forecast products.
Forecast Soil Moisture Anomaly for April 2010
Issued March 2010
June 2010
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/forecast/TSM/prob/
NWS River Forecast Centers: New Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Candidate for a national hydrological forecast system
Proposed Suite of Probabilistic Proposed Suite of Probabilistic Seasonal Drought ForecastsSeasonal Drought Forecasts
Probability of Ag. Drought
Probability of Hydro Drought
Probability of Drought
Total Column 2-m Soil Moisture
Change Map
Change in soil moisture percentiles
Change Map
Top 40 cm or root zone soil moisture
Change in soil moisture percentiles
Probability of Runoff or Streamflows
Change Map
Change in runoff or streamflow percentiles
Total Drought
Agricultural (Short-term) Drought
Hydro (Long-term) Drought
Future Plans: Developing New and Innovative Forecast Products
• Develop next-generation drought forecast tools that provide probabilistic information on seasonal time scales
• Work with our partners in academia and the government to develop prototype products
• Potential expansion to a North American domain