Country Partnership Strategy: Pakistan, 2015–2019

COUNTRY AND PORTFOLIO INDICATORS

Table 1: Progress Toward the Millennium Development Goals and Targets

Goals and Targets Country Status Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Target 1.A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day Target 1.B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people Target 1.C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

Pakistan’s poverty rate, based on the national poverty line, decreased from 34.4% in FY2001 to 22.3% in FY2006. Preliminary estimates indicate further decline to 17.2% and 12.4% in FY2008 and FY2011 respectively. Pakistan is on track for MDG indicator 1. While the decline in urban and rural poverty was consistent with overall trend during this period, there are significant variations across regions. The labor force participation rate increased from 50.5% in FY2002 to 53.1% in FY2013. However the rate for women (24.3% in FY2013) was less than a third of that for men. The employment to population increased from 46.5% in FY2002 to 49.9% in FY2013. The employment to population ratio stagnated around 50% since FY2006 reflecting slower economic growth. The unemployment rate rose from 5.1% in FY2007 to 6.0% in FY2014. Low quality of employment (low productivity and wage rate) remains an issue. The incidence of underweight, malnutrition, and stunting among children under 5 years of age decreased from 41.5% in FY2001 to 31.5% in FY2012 against MDG target of 20% in 2015. At the current rate of progress, achieving this MDG target will be a challenge for Pakistan.

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

The MDG 2 for Pakistan targets 100% net primary school enrolment, 100% completion of education from grades 1-5 and an 88% literacy rate. Net enrolment (NER) and completion rates at primary level increased up to the mid-2000s but thereafter slowed, and in FY2014 were 57% and 51% respectively. NER for boys (60%) is higher than for girls (53%). Similarly, completion rates are 58% for boys and 40% for girls. The literacy rate increased to 58% overall in FY2014 from 35% in FY1991, but this is highly skewed towards males. Pakistan is off-track on all three targets, and therefore not likely to achieve MDG 2.

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Target 3.A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015

In promoting gender equality and empowering women (MDG 3), Pakistan’s progress is mixed. National indicators include gender parity index (GPI) for literacy, share of women in wage employment and the proportion of women in national parliament. Progress is lagging on GPI for youth literacy at 0.81 against a target of 1.0, secondary education (0.84 against a target of 0.94) and primary education (0.88 against target of 1.0). Pakistan achieved one of the

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Goals and Targets Country Status highest ratios of women parliamentarians in the South Asia region. The proportion of women in the national parliament (National Assembly and Senate) stands at 22.2% after 2013 elections. The share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector increased from 8.7% in FY1991 to 10.6% in FY2012, but is still below the 14% MDG target for 2015. There is a considerable degree of regional variation in gender parity. It is unlikely that the targets for gender parity will be achieved across all districts and regions.

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Target 4.A: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate

Progress on this indicator has been slow. Pakistan is off track regarding progress on child and infant mortality targets. The number of deaths of children, under 1 year of age per 1000 live births, declined from 104 per 1000 live births in FY1991 to 84 in FY2002 and 69 in FY2013 against the target of 40 in 2015. The under-5 mortality rate declined from 136 per 1000 live births in FY1991 to 102 in FY2005 and further to 89 in FY2011. Pakistan has achieved its target for the proportion of children under five who suffered from diarrhea in the last month and received ORT. Lady health workers’ coverage of target population increased from 34% in FY2001 to 80% in FY2005 and 83% in FY2012. The percentage of children (under 1 year) immunized against measles increased only marginally from 80% in FY1991 to 81% in FY2012 against a target of above 90%. The percentage of children fully immunized (12-23 months old) increased from 73% in FY2008 to 80% in FY2012 (male: 81%; female: 79%) against a target of 90%.

Goal 5: Improve maternal health

Target 5.A: Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio Target 5.B: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health

Pakistan considerably lags behind the MDG targets by 2015 for improving maternal health, especially in reducing the maternal mortality ratio and increasing the proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel. The maternal mortality ratio declined from 550 per 100,000 live births in FY1991 to 230 in FY2005 and 170 in FY2013, compared with the MDG target of 140 per 100,000 live births. The proportion of deliveries attended by skilled health personnel (including trained traditional birth attendants) at 58% in FY2014 is slightly over half the target of above 90%. The contraceptive prevalence and rate improved from 12% in FY1991 to 30% in FY2008 and 30.8% in FY2012. The fertility rate declined from 5.4 between 1993-1995 to 4.5 during 1998-2000 and further to 3.9 in FY2014.

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Goals and Targets Country Status The proportion of women (15-49 years) who had given birth during the previous 3 years and received at least one pre-natal care consultation during pregnancy increased from 15% in FY1991 to 35% in FY2002 and further to 72% in FY2014 against the target of 100% in FY2015.

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases

Target 6.A: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS Target 6.B: Achieve, by 2010, universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need it Target 6.C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases

With historically low prevalence of HIV among the population, Pakistan has surpassed the target for reducing HIV prevalence among 15-24 year old pregnant women and vulnerable groups. Progress in the proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured, is on track with Pakistan expected to achieve its target for 2015. The incidence of tuberculosis with growth in cases up to 230 cases/10,000 population against a target of 45/10,000) is, however, a challenge. Population living in malaria risk areas with access to and using effective treatment increased from 20% in FY2002 to 30% in FY2009 which is low against the target of 75% and 40% in FY2011.

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Target 7.A: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs and reverse the loss of environmental resources Target 7.B: Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving, by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of loss Target 7.C: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation Target 7.D: By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers

Pakistan lags behind on indicators of forest cover. The percentage of land area covered by forest (included state-owned and private forest and farmlands) increased marginally from 4.8% in FY1991 to 5.2% in FY2012 and is short of 6% target. Pakistan is on track to meet the target for land protection for the conservation of wildlife as a percentage of total land area. The land area protected for the conservation of wildlife increased from 9.1% in FY1991 to 11.6% in FY2012 against 12% as target. Against the target of 93%, the proportion of population with access to improved water sources was 89% in FY2012 indicating Pakistan’s status is on track. Pakistan lags behind on the target proportion of population with access to sanitation. The percentage of the population with access to improved sanitation (flush toilet use) increased from 30% in FY1991 to 72% in FY2012 against a target of 90%.

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

Target 8.A: Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system Target 8.B: Address the special needs of the least developed countries Target 8.C: Address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing states (through the Programme of Action for the Sustainable

For Pakistan, efforts to improve market access regionally and globally achieved mixed results. There was an impasse in the Doha Round of WTO negotiations, bilateral trade with India remains hampered by security concerns and mutual mistrust. Pakistan gained access to the European Union’s Generalized Scheme of Preferences (GSP) Plus in 2014 and signed preferential trade agreements with a number of key partners (e.g. Malaysia, Iran, China, Sri Lanka). Average tariffs faced by Pakistan in developed

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Goals and Targets Country Status Development of Small Island Developing States and the outcome of the twenty-second special session of the General Assembly) Target 8.D: Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures in order to make debt sustainable in the long term Target 8.E: In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries Target 8.F: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications

markets are comparatively high at 8% compared to 6% for developing economies. Total public debt was on the high side at 64.2% of GDP in FY2014; external debt was moderate at 22.2% of GDP. The IMF’s debt sustainability analysis notes that public debt is expected to decline gradually over time supported by a strong fiscal adjustment, assuming a continuation of economic reforms. ODA as a percentage of Pakistan’s GNI has mostly remained in the range of 0.9-1.7% since 2001. In absolute terms, aid per capita fluctuated between US$ 5-20 and total ODA between US$ 732 million to US$ 3.5 billion per year during this period. Building on the National Plan of Action, the federal and sub national governments are finalizing MDG Acceleration Framework Action Plans which will offer cross-sector strategies to accelerate progress towards universal primary education.

GDP = gross domestic product; GNI = gross national income; IMF = International Monetary Fund; ODA = official development assistance; ORT: oral rehydration therapy; WTO: World Trade Organization. Sources: Government of Pakistan. Pakistan Economic Survey 2013-14. Islamabad. www.finance.gov.pk Government of Pakistan. Pakistan Millennium Development Goals Reports 2005, and 2013. Islamabad Government of Pakistan. Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey 2012, and 2013. www.pbs.gov.pk

Government of Pakistan. Pakistan Household Income and Expenditures Survey 2012. www.pbs.gov.pk

Government of Pakistan. Pakistan Employment Trends 2013. www.pbs.gov.pk

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Table 2: Country Economic Indicators

Fiscal Year

Item 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

A. Income and Growth 1. GDP per capita ($, current market prices) 1,022.5 1,207.0 1,243.7 1,255.0 1,296.3 2. GDP growth (%, constant factor cost) 2.6 3.6 3.8 3.7 4.0 a. Agriculture 0.2 2.0 3.6 2.7 2.7 b. Industry 3.4 4.5 2.5 0.6 4.5 c. Services 3.2 3.9 4.4 5.1 4.4 B. Saving and Investment (% of GDP, current prices)

1. Gross domestic investment 15.8 14.1 15.1 15.0 15.0 2. Gross national saving 13.6 14.2 13.0 13.9 13.7 C. Money and Inflation (annual % change)

1. Consumer price index 10.1 13.7 11.0 7.4 8.6 2. Liquidity (M2) 12.5 15.9 14.1 15.9 12.5 D. Government Finance (% of GDP)

1. Revenue and grants 14.0 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.5 2. Expenditure and onlending 20.2 18.9 21.6 21.4 20.0

3. Overall fiscal surplus (deficit) (6.2) (6.5) (8.8) (8.2) (5.5)

E. Balance of Payments 1. Merchandise trade balance (% of GDP)

(6.5) (4.9) (7.0) (6.6) (6.8)

2. Current account balance (% of GDP) (2.2) 0.1 (2.1) (1.1) (1.3) 3. Merchandise export ($) growth

(annual % change) 2.9 28.9 (2.5) 0.3 1.1

4. Merchandise import ($) growth (annual % change)

(1.7) 14.9 12.8 (0.5) 3.8

F. External Payments Indicators

1. Gross official reserves (including gold, $ million)

12,958.2

14,783.6

10,803.3

6,008.4

9,097.5

2. Gross official reserves (in months of current year’s imports of goods and services)

4.1 4.1 2.7 1.5 2.2

3. External debt service (% of exports of goods and services)

16.7 11.3 14.5 19.0 22.4

4. External debt (% of GDP) 30.9 27.9 24.9 22.0 22.2 G. Memorandum Items 1. GDP (current market prices, Rs. billion) 14,867.0 18,276.4 20,046.5 22,378.9 25,068.1 2. Exchange rate (Rs./$, average) 83.8 85.5 89.2 96.7 102.9 3. Population (million) 173.5 177.1 180.7 184.4 188.0

Note: External Debt includes external liabilities. GDP = gross domestic product; Rs = rupees. Sources: Government of Pakistan. Ministry of Finance. Pakistan Economic Survey, various issues. http://www.finance.gov.pk; State Bank of Pakistan economic data. http:www.sbp.gov.pk/ecodata, accessed 30 June 2015.

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Table 3: Country Poverty and Social Indicators

Item

FY2000

FY2005

Latest Year

A. Population Indicators 1. Population (million) 139.4

a 152.5

a 188.0

a (2014)

2. Population growth (annual % change) 2.3 1.9 2.0 (2014) B. Social Indicators 1. Fertility rate (births/woman) 4.5

b 3.8

b 3.9

n (2014)

2. Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 live births) 280m 230

m 170

m (2013)

3. Infant mortality rate (below 1 year, per 1,000 live births) 88.0b 80.0

b 69.0

b (2013)

4. Life expectancy at birth (years) 64.0b 65.0

b 66.0

b (2012)

a. Female 65.0b 66.0

b 67.0

b (2012)

b. Male 63.0b 64.0

b 66.0

b (2012)

5. Adult literacy of 10 years and older (%) 47.1c 53.0

n 58.0

n (2014)

a. Female 35.4c 40.0

c 47.0

n (2014)

b. Male 59.0c 65.0

c 70.0

n (2014)

6. Primary school gross enrollment (%) 72.0e (2002) 86.0

e 90.0

n (2014)

7. Secondary school gross enrollment (%) 42.0e (2002) 44.0

e 58.0

n (2014)

8. Child malnutrition (% below 5 years old) 41.5g (2001) … 31.5

f (2012)

9. Population with access to safe water sources(%) … … 89.0d (2012)

10. Population with access to sanitation (%) … 54.0n 72.0

d (2012)

11. Public education expenditure (% of GDP) 2.1a 2.1

a 2.1

o (2014)

12. Human development index rank 135/174j 135/177

i 146/187

h (2013)

13. Gender-related development index rank … 112/115k (2006) 132/134

k (2013)

C. Poverty Indicators 1. Poverty incidence 34.5

a (2001) 22.3

a (2006) 12.4

a (2011)

a. Urban 22.7a (2001) 13.1

a (2006) 7.1

a (2011)

b. Rural 39.3a (2001) 27.0

a (2006) 15.1

a (2011)

2. Poverty gap 7.0l (2001) 4.8

l 4.0

l (2006)

3. Poverty severity index 2.1l (2001) 1.5l 1.1

l (2006)

4. Gini index 33.0m (1999) 31.2

m 29.6

m (2011)

… = not available, GDP = gross domestic product. a

Government of Pakistan. 2014. Pakistan Economic Survey 2013–2014. Islamabad

b World Bank. World Bank data by country. (http://data.worldbank.org)

c Government of Pakistan. 2008. Pakistan Economic Survey 2007-08. Islamabad

d Government of Pakistan. 2014. Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurements Survey (PSLM) 2012–2013, Islamabad.

e Government of Pakistan. 2008. Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurements Survey (PSLM) 2006–2007, Islamabad.

f Government of Pakistan. Pakistan Millennium Development Goals Report 2013. Islamabad

g Government of Pakistan. Pakistan Millennium Development Goals Report 2005. Islamabad

h UNDP. Human Development Report 2013.

I UNDP. Human Development Report 2005.

j UNDP. Human Development Report 2000.

k World Economic Forum. 2013. The Global Gender Gap Report. Geneva

l Government of Pakistan. Pakistan Economic Survey 2007–2008, Islamabad

m World Development Indicator online (http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators)

n Government of Pakistan. Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurements Survey (PSLM) 2013–2014,

Islamabad. o Government of Pakistan. 2015. Pakistan Economic Survey 2014–2015. Islamabad.

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Table 4: Country Environment Indicators

Indicator Latest Year

A. Energy Efficiency of Emissions 1. GDP/unit of energy use (PPP$/kgoe)

b 4.1 (2004) 8.8 (2011)

2. Traditional fuel use (% of total energy use)a … 25 (2012)

3. Carbon dioxide emissions (million tons)b … 161.4 (2010)

4. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita (ton)b 0.8 (2003) 0.9 (2010)

B. Water Pollution: Water and Sanitation 1. % urban population with access to safe water

a 62 (2007) 92 (2012)

2. % rural population with access to safe water a 65 (2007) 88 (2012)

3. % urban population with access to sanitation a 64 (2007) 97 (2012)

C. Land Use and Deforestation 1. Forest area (million hectares)

c … 4.3 (2012)

2. Average annual deforestation (km2) 304.0 (FY2000) …

3. Average annual deforestation (% change) 1.6 (2005) … 4. Rural population density (people/km

2 of arable land) 476.7 (2005) …

5. Arable land (% of total land)c 27.6 (2005) 38.0 (2012)

6. Permanent cropland (% of total land)b 1.1 (2011) 1.1 (2012)

D. Biodiversity and Protected Areas 1. Nationally protected area (million hectares)

a 3.8 (2003) 9.9 (2012)

2. Nationally protected area (% of total land)a 4.9 (2003) 11.5 (2012)

3. Mammals (number of threatened species) 19 (2002) … 4. Birds (number of threatened species) 17 (2002) … 5. Higher plants (number of threatened species) … … 6. Reptiles (number of threatened species) … … 7. Amphibians (number of threatened species) … … E. Urban Areas 1. Urban population (million)

b 55.7 (2007) 68.9 (2013)

1. Urban population (% of total population)b 34.9 (2005) 37.9 (2012)

2. Per capita water use (liters/day) … … 3. Wastewater treated (%) … …

4. Solid waste generated per capita (kg/day) … …

… = not available, GDP = gross domestic product, kg = kilogram, kgoe = kilograms of oil equivalent, km2

= square kilometer, PPP = purchasing power parity. Sources: a

Government of Pakistan. Ministry of Finance. 2013. Pakistan Economic Survey (2012-2013). Islamabad. b

World Bank, World Development Indicators online (http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/reports/tableview.aspx?isshared=true&ispopular=country&pid=10)

c Pakistan Bureau of Statistics website (http://www.pbs.gov.pk/population-tables)

d United Nations Statistics Division, Environmental Indicators Greenhouse Gas emissions (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment/air_co2_emissions.htm)

e UN Environment Data Explorer (http://geodata.grid.unep.ch/mod_table/table.php;

http://geodata.grid.unep.ch/mod_table/table.php)

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Table 5: Development Coordination Matrix

Sectors and Themes

Current ADB Strategy and/or

Activities

Other Development Partners’ Strategies and/or Main Activities

Multilateral Institutions and the UN System Bilateral

Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Rural Development

Policy reforms to promote freer markets in agricultural inputs and outputs, community-based area development; rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure; development of water resources to support investments and reforms in irrigation, drainage and flood protection

EU Natural resource management, local development, community mobilization, rural development, irrigation, rural roads, light weight bridges, drinking water schemes and flood protection structures

Australia Dfat Irrigation and water supply infrastructure, water rights, water management, water policies, PPPs

FAO Food security; support through farm inputs, storage facilities, farmers training

Netherlands Wetland, mangroves, biodiversity, livelihoods

IFAD Skills development, vocational training, access to finance, and access to market for rural households

SDC Sustainable practices for use of natural resources, construction of microhydel

WB Irrigation infrastructure, rainwater harvesting, water management, water policies, rights, capacity development in R&D, monitoring and evaluation

USAID Water storage and irrigation, agricultural processes, farming technology/ practices, on farm water management, capacity development of R&D, dairy farming, agribusinesses access to market WFP Food and nutritional security, disaster

preparedness and response to shocks

UNDP Food security

Education Education and skills development

EU Education Sector Budget Support and TA Support to TVET sector (policy, province level)

Australia Dfat Quality of education, social assistance

WB Increasing access and quality, girls education, low-cost private schools, effective school councils, education reforms

CIDA Quality of education, teachers’ skills/ competencies development

DFID Quality education, educational attainment/ enrolment rates, education assessment system; girls’ scholarships; support to education reforms; school infrastructure; low cost private schools; skills development

Netherlands Vocational education/training, construction of schools and improved facilities

USAID Higher education, student enrolment/ assessment, early-grade reading, teachers’ training for quality education

Emergency assistance for disaster

Rehabilitation and reconstruction in earthquake and flood-affected areas

EU Humanitarian assistance provided via ECHO Australia Dfat Emergency response and reconstruction

UNDP Disaster risk management, post-flood relief and recovery

CIDA Post-flood relief and recovery

WB Disaster and risk assessment, response and management, emergency assistance for recovery.

DFID Preparedness for emergency relief and early recovery

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Sectors and Themes

Current ADB Strategy and/or

Activities

Other Development Partners’ Strategies and/or Main Activities

Multilateral Institutions and the UN System Bilateral

WFP Enhancing national resilience to disasters, crises and external shocks

SDC Emergency response and reconstruction, disaster reduction

USAID Post-flood and post-conflict reconstruction

Energy (i) Power generation, transmission, distribution, renewable energy, and energy efficiency; (ii) energy sector reforms.

ISDB Energy infrastructure, renewable energy projects

JICA Institutional technical capacity building

EU Capacity building and development of hydropower; construction of micro-hydro power units ranging from 25-500 KW, all in off-grid areas

WB

Power distribution and transmission; gas distribution; hydropower/other renewable power generation; energy efficiency, regional power trade; power sector reforms

Germany (KfW)

Renewable energy and energy efficiency, hydropower plants, power substations, off-grid solutions and transmission lines.

USAID Capacity development, policy reforms, repair/maintenance of power plants.

Germany (GIZ) Strategy for renewable energy/ energy efficiency

France (AFD)

Renewable energy, energy efficiency, hydropower plants and transmission lines.

PRC Power generation and transmission

Finance Infrastructure finance, PPPs, financial sector reforms, financial inclusion

WB Micro insurance, insurance laws, financial inclusion, SME finance, support to MFIs

DFID Financial (microfinance) services, skills training, SME finance

Germany (KfW)

Capacity development for microfinance

SDC Microenterprise development

USAID SME finance, debt capital market, public debt management

Health Support for health-related MDGs

EU Nutrition and food security Australia Dfat Training, medical services

UNAIDS HIV/AIDS control CIDA Health service delivery

UNESCO

Health education DFID Family planning, maternal and child health, nutrition, essential primary and preventative health care, health sector reforms

UNFPA Reproductive health JICA Health information system

UNICEF Maternal and child health USAID Health service delivery, maternal and child health, disease surveillance, access to family planning services, building health care systems

WB Health sector reforms, HIV/AIDS control, nutrition, polio eradication

WHO Health system, disease early warning, disease surveillance, EPI, polio eradication

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Sectors and Themes

Current ADB Strategy and/or

Activities

Other Development Partners’ Strategies and/or Main Activities

Multilateral Institutions and the UN System Bilateral

Public Sector Management

PSE reforms and capacity building, sector reforms in infrastructure, procurement and result-based management, social safety nets

EU Public finance management reforms DFID Revenue mobilization, improved service delivery, security and access to justice, accountability, electoral process and reforms

WB Public management reforms, financial reporting and audit, land records management, cities governance, social safety net, reforms for private and financial sector, revenue mobilization, industrial competitiveness

Transport Regional and national connectivity, reconstruction of national and provincial roads, improvement of trade and border crossing, rehabilitation of rail links, institutional revitalization, policy dialogue, PPP, trade facilitation policy, road safety, and asset management

IDB

Port infrastructure and allied road-network; national roads; rail network, Institutional capacity building. PPP (development of toll roads)

PRC Highways/road infrastructure, railway, port and shipping and mass transit to support economic corridor.

WB Trade facilitation policy, rural roads DFID Economic corridors

JICA National highways, rural roads, urban transport; transport policy, training and research, institutional strengthening

USAID Connectivity and regional trade: and roads infrastructure for cross border trade

Water and Other Urban Infrastructure and Service

Urban renewal, integrated urban planning, provision of basic services, urban transport and mass transit systems; improved market logistics facilities

UNICEF Urban policies, laws, budgets and planning, capacity development, awareness raising, emergency preparedness and response, disaster risk reduction

JICA Urban master planning (mass transit, water and sanitation and urban transport) circular rail link

UNDP Urban transport, national strategy, capacity building, institutional systems

DFID Support to local governments (systems and rules) in KP and Punjab Piloting GIS cells to help district planning in 12 districts in KP and Punjab

WB Secondary cities, restoration of old cities, water and sanitation management and reforms

USAID Urban master planning; water and sanitation infrastructure

Theme

Economic Growth

Infrastructure development, institutional strengthening, and policy reforms

EU Income and employment generation Pipeline programme focusing on rural employment and business opportunities (2017)

Australia Dfat Skills development

IMF Fiscal, monetary, energy sector, public sector enterprise, finance, and the private sector policy reforms to promote sustainable growth

UNDP Income and employment, rural productivity community based organizations

CIDA Improving labor conditions, polices, legislation, skill development

WB Economic and policy analysis, skill DFID Economic reforms for inclusive growth

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Sectors and Themes

Current ADB Strategy and/or

Activities

Other Development Partners’ Strategies and/or Main Activities

Multilateral Institutions and the UN System Bilateral

development, reforms for private and financial sector, revenue mobilization, industrial competitiveness

USAID Entrepreneur development, SME development

Environmental Sustainability

Public sector capacity building environmental audits; monitoring of environmental safeguards compliance of ADB projects (energy, transport, irrigation, and urban sector); poverty-environment analysis

EU

Capacity building on climate change adaptation in coastal areas of Pakistan Capacity building of sustainable production and consumption in industrial SMEs

DFID

Improving resilience

UN GEF

Disaster risks and vulnerabilities; sustainable land management; standards and labeling; biodiversity conservation; energy efficiency

France (AFD)

Green energy (hydropower development and energy efficiency)

UNDP

Disaster management; climate change adaptation and mitigation

Japan (JICA) Environmental monitoring system

WB Analytical work on environmental management and sustainability, integration and implementation of environmental management plans in projects

Netherlands Integrated water resource management, PPP for clean production technologies; renewable energy, strengthening capacity of disaster management

Regional Cooperation and Integration

Promoting and facilitating regional cooperation in transport, trade facilitation, trade policy, and energy

EU Enabling climate for trade – trade-related TA program, capacity building in multilateral trade system, quality standards and intellectual property rights, regulatory framework for standards, competition policy and regional trade, capacity building in labor and environmental standards

CIDA Cross border services and cooperation for trade

UNODC Control of illicit human trafficking and border management

USAID Improving trade environment; trade policy implementation; enhanced capacity

WB Trade and transport logistics/ corridors, private sector facilitation policy environment for regional trade

Gender Equity Gender mainstreaming in ADB operations/sectors at both design and implementation level, monitoring and reporting of gender equality results

ILO Equal access to decent employment CIDA Women empowerment, improved labor conditions, data collection and monitoring for women contribution, skill development

IOM Migrant women, sexual exploitation and abuse, gender equality and women empowerment

DFID Support for education, women’s rights, domestic violence, women’s economic empowerment & financial inclusion, voice & accountability, social cash transfers

UN Women

Home based workers’ policies and laws, access to decent wages, income opportunities and social security benefits, support for women development departments

USAID Women’s incomes, skills development, entrepreneurial opportunities/access to financial resources, gender-based violence, women empowerment

WB Gender mainstreaming in operations, youth development, social protection, health and

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Sectors and Themes

Current ADB Strategy and/or

Activities

Other Development Partners’ Strategies and/or Main Activities

Multilateral Institutions and the UN System Bilateral

Education, skill development

Private Sector Development

Interventions in the power, energy, and financial sectors, trade finance, interventions in social sectors such as education and health

EU Market access through GSP+ status DFID

Access to finance for SMEs and individuals

IFC Infrastructure projects and microfinance institutions

WB SMEs capacity building (mining and agro sectors) France

(PROPARCO) Infrastructure projects, agribusiness and microfinance institutions

Governance PSE reforms and capacity building for procurement and financial management, sector reforms in infrastructure, procurement and result based management

EU Peace building, human rights, stability and conflict prevention, social cohesion, state-citizen relations, capacity building of law enforcement agencies, prosecution and judiciary; legal aid, local governance and decentralization

Australia Dfat Democratic governance, human rights

UNDP Democratic governance, rule of law, electoral cycle, peace building, decentralization

DFID Service delivery, peace building and stability, strengthening democracy, transparency accountability and electoral process, rule of law

WB Governance reforms Netherlands Electoral reforms, strengthening public institutions, human rights, capacity building for judiciary and parliament functions, training of diplomats

USAID Rule of law, counter-narcotics, democratic governance

Australia Dfat=Government of Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade; CIDA = Canadian International Development Agency; DFID = Department for International Development; ECHO = The European Commission's Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department; EPI = expanded program on immunization; EU = European Union; FAO = Food and Agriculture Organization; GIZ = Deutsche Gesellschaft Für Internationale; GSP = Generalized Scheme of Preferences; IFAD = International Fund for Agricultural and Development; IFC = International Finance Corporation; ILO = International Labor Organization; IMF = International Monetary Fund; IOM = International Organization for Migration; JICA = Japan International Cooperation Agency; M&E = monitoring and evaluation; PPP = Public Private Partnership; PRC = Peoples Republic of China; PROPARCO = Investment and Promotions Company for Economic Cooperation (France); R&D = research and development; SDC = Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation; TA = technical assistance; TVET = technical and vocational education and training; UN = United Nations; UNDP = United Nations Development Program; UNGEF = United Nations Global Environment Fund; UNIDO = United Nations Industrial Development Organization; UNODC = United Nations Office for Drug Control; USAID = US Agency for International Development; WB = World Bank; WFP = World Food Program. Sources: UN 2014. Donors Profile in Pakistan. UN Resident Coordinator’s Office Pakistan; www.usaid.gov; www.worldbank.org; www.devtracker.dfid.gov.uk/countries/PK/projects; ADB Project staff.

13

Table 6: Portfolio Indicators—Portfolio Amounts and Ratings a Sovereign Loans, as of 31 December 2014

a Projects are rated using the five performance indicators; technical, procurement, disbursement, financial management and safeguards . These indicators have

equal weight b There are total 35 loans for 25 Projects (17 ongoing, 6 new , and 2 completed projects). Of 17 ongoing projects, 11 were rated “On-Track”, 4 were

rated “Potential Problem”, 1 “Actual Problem” project, and 1 is not rated being a Program Loan.

c The five indicator ratings are aggregated into a single project rating by generating an average rating score for the project. The following values are assigned to

each rating Green = 1 point, Amber = 0.5 point and Red = 0 points. The assigned values for each of the five indicators are summed and divided by 5 to produce an overall project rating score between 0 and 1. Applying the percentage thresholds only, a project with a total rating score greater than or equal to 0.9 is on-track (Green); a project with a total rating score of 0.7–0.89 is a potential problem (Amber); and a project with a total rating score of less than 0.69 is an actual problem (Red), and is ‘at-risk’

d Active loans which were recently approved and implementation has not started yet

Source: ODB

Sector

Net Loan Amount

Total

Rating c

On Track Potential Problem

Actual Problem

Not Rated d

$ million % No. b

% No. % No. % No. % No. %

Agriculture, natural resources and rural development 732.5 13.3 7 20.0 2 11.1 2 25.0 - 3 37.5

Energy 2,727.1 49.5 16 45.7 10 55.6 4 50.0 - 2 25.0

Public sector management 432.9 7.8 2 5.7 1 5.6 - - 1 12.5

Transport 1,487.5 27.0 7 20.0 4 22.2 - 1 100.0 2 25.0 Water and other urban infrastructure and services 134.5 2.4 3 8.6 1 5.6 2 25.0 - -

Grand Total 5,514.5 100.0 35 100.0 18 100.0 8 100.0 1 100.0 8 100.0

14

Table 7: Portfolio Indicators—Disbursements and Net Transfers of Resources Sovereign Loans, as of 31 December 2014

Disbursements and Transfers OCR ADF Total

Disbursements a

Total funds available for withdrawal ($ million) 2794.3 814.7 3609.0 Disbursed amount ($ million, cumulative) 1431.4 675.8 2107.2 Percentage disbursed (disbursed amount/total available) 51.2 82.9 58.4 Disbursements ($ million, 2014) 333.8 523.1 856.9 Disbursement ratio (%)

b 13.87 63.10 26.49

Net Transfer of Resources ($ million)c

2008 1,032.4 377.7 1,410.1 2009 340.2 152.6 492.8 2010 184.1 17.5 201.6 2011 86.1 (304.5) (218.3) 2012 (81.2) (353.2) (434.4) 2013 2014

(33.3) (134.6)

(282.7) 163.9

(316.0) 29.3

ADF = Asian Development Fund, OCR = Ordinary Capital Resources a Active loans as of 31 December 2014

b Please note that the denominator for DR formula effective 2014 consists of : (1) net undisbursed balance of loans and grants approved and effective as at the beginning of the year and (2) net undisbursed balance of loans and grants approved but were not yet made effective as at the beginning of the year.

c Includes private sector projects

Source: ODB and CTLA

15

Table 8 (a): Project Success Rate PCR Results (Projects), 1995–2014a

Sector HS/GS/S PS US Total

No. % No. % No. % No. %

Agriculture, Natural Resources and Rural Development 22 61 10 28 4 11 36 32

Education 4 57 1 14 2 29 7 6

Energy 6 55 5 45 0 - 11 10

Finance 2 18 7 64 2 18 11 10

Health & Social Protection 3 43 3 43 1 14 7 6

Industry & Trade 2 40 1 20 2 40 5 4

Public Sector Management 2 22 4 44 3 33 9 8

Transport & Information & Communication Technology 10 77 3 23 0 - 13 12

Water & Other Municipal Infrastructure & Services 4 57 3 43 0 - 7 6

Multisector 2 33 4 67 0 - 6 5

Total 57 51 41 37 14 13 112 100

LTS=less than successful, GS=generally successful, HS=highly successful, PCR=project completion report, PS=partly successful, S=successful, S=unsuccessful. a

PCRs have no rating prior to 1995. Ratings reported are based on the new guidelines implemented from 2001 onwards. Source: ADB Staff

16

Table 8 (b): Project Performance Evaluation Reports 1996–2014 a

Sector HS S PS/LTS US Total

No. % No. % No. % No. % No. %

Agriculture & Natural Resources 0 0 2 25.0 4 50.0 2 25.0 8 23.5

Education 0 0 0 - 2 66.7 1 33.3 3 8.8

Energy 0 0 1 33.3 2 66.7 0 0.0 3 8.8

Finance 0 0 1 25.0 2 50.0 1 25.0 4 11.8

Health & Social Protection 0 0 2 50.0 2 50.0 0 0.0 4 11.8

Industry & Trade 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 0.0 0 0.0

Public Sector Management 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 0.0 0 0.0

Transport & ICT 0 0 2 66.7 1 33.3 0 0.0 3 8.8

Water & Other Municipal Infrastructure & Services 0 0 0 - 1 25.0 3 75.0 4 11.8

Multisector 0 0 2 40.0 2 40.0 1 20.0 5 14.7

Total 0 0 10 29.4 16 47.1 8 23.5 34 100.0

HS = highly successful, I = Information & Communication Technology, LTS = less than successful, PS = partly successful, US = unsuccessful a The new 4-category rating system was retrofitted to projects/programs evaluated since 1996.

Source: ADB Staff

17

Table 9: Portfolio Implementation Status Sovereign Loans, as of 31 December 2014 a

SEC

Loan No Title

Net Loan Amount

($ million) Cumulative Disbursements

($ million) Approval

Date Signing

Date

Closing Date Progress b

(%)

OCR ADF OCR ADF Original Rev

/Actual

AN 2299 MFF-Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Investment Program - Project 1

208.99 - 141.01 - 18.Dec.06 22.Jun.07 30.Sep.13 30.Sep.15 67.5

AN 2300 MFF-Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Investment Program - Project 1

- 10.19 - 7.53 18.Dec.06 22.Jun.07 30.Sep.13 30.Sep.15 74.0

AN 2841 Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Investment Program (Tranche 2)

- 253.55 - 77.17 22.Dec.11 18.Jan.12 31.Dec.16 30.4

AN 2971 MFF: Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Investment Program-Project 3

73.00 - 11.48 - 13.Dec.12 30.Apr.13 31.Mar.17 15.7

AN 3239 Federally Administered Tribal Areas Water Resources Development Project

- 42.47 - - 15.Dec.14 30.Sep.20

AN 3159 Trimmu and Panjnad Barrages Improvement Project

50.00 - - - 22.Sep.14 5.Dec.14 31.Mar.21

AN 3160 Trimmu and Panjnad Barrages Improvement Project

- 94.26 - - 22.Sep.14 5.Dec.14 31.Mar.21

EN 2286 MFF-Renewable Energy Development Sector Investment Program-Project1

116.18 - 62.19 - 13.Dec.06 05.Oct.07 30.Jun.12 30.Jun.16 53.5

EN 2287 MFF-Renewable Energy Development Sector Investment Program-Project I

- 5.32 - 2.87 13.Dec.06 05.Oct.07 30.Jun.12 30.Jun.16 54.0

EN 2290 MFF-Power Transmission Enhancement Investment Program-Tranche 1

- 10.05 3.60 13.Dec.06 16.Jan.07 31.Dec.16 35.8

EN 2396 MFF-Power Transmission Enhancement Investment Program-Project II

165.00 - 149.10 - 17.Dec.07 20.May.08 31.Dec.13 31.Dec.14 90.4

EN 2846 Power Transmission Enhancement Investment Program-Tranche 3

243.24 - 13.98 - 22.Dec.11 18.Jan.12 30.Jun.16 5.7

EN 2439 MFF-Power Distribution Enhancement Investment Prog-Tranche1,Support Program

- 9.03 - 3.51 12.Sep.08 29.Nov.08 31.Dec.18 38.9

EN 2727 MFF-Power Distribution Enhancement Investment Program -Tranche 2

172.30 - 100.00 - 14.Dec.10 28.Jan.11 30.Sep.15 58.0

EN 2972 MFF: Power Distribution Enhancement Investment Program-Project 3

245.00 - 11.12 - 14.Dec.12 09.Sep.13 31.Dec.16 4.5

EN 3096 MFF: Power Distribution Enhancement Investment Program-Tranche 4

167.20 - 0.11 - 13.Dec.13 30.Apr.14 30.Jun.17 0.1

EN 2552 MFF-Energy Efficiency Investment Program - Tranche 1

30.00 - 24.32 - 22.Sep.09 29.Apr.10 31.Jul.12 30.Jun.14 81.1

EN 2553 MFF-Energy Efficiency Investment Program - Tranche 1

- 18.56 - 0.67 22.Sep.09 29.Apr.10 31.Mar.17 3.6

EN 3126 Sustainable Energy Sector Reform Program - 399.16 - 399.16 24.Apr.14 28.Apr.14 30.Jun.15 100.0

EN 3090 Jamshoro Power Generation Project 840.00 - - - 09.Dec.13 12.Feb.14 31.Mar.19

EN 3091 Jamshoro Power Generation Project 30.00 - - - 09.Dec.13 12.Feb.14 30.Jun.24

EN 3092 Jamshoro Power Generation Project - 28.11 - - 09.Dec.13 12.Feb.14 31.Mar.19

EN 3203 MFF: Power Transmission Enhancement Investment Program-Project 4

248.00 - - - 3.Dec.14 31.Dec.16

18

SEC

Loan No Title

Net Loan Amount

($ million) Cumulative Disbursements

($ million) Approval

Date Signing

Date

Closing Date Progress b

(%)

OCR ADF OCR ADF Original Rev

/Actual

PS 3049 Social Protection Development Project - 413.35 - 68.18 22.Oct.13 25.Nov.13 30.Jun.19 16.5

PS 3214 Public Sector Enterprise Reforms Project - 19.52 - - 4.Dec.14 30.Jun.20

TR 2540 MFF-National Highway Development Sector Investment Program-Project 2

230.00 - 211.25 - 26.Aug.09 02.Sep.09 31.Dec.13 30.Dec.14 91.8

TR 2400 MFF-National Trade Corridor Highway Investment Program-Project 1

146.00 - 119.85 - 17.Dec.07 03.Dec.08 30.Jun.14 31.Mar.15 82.1

TR 3121 MFF: National Trade Corridor Highway Investment Program-Tranche 2

200.00 - 0.01 - 1.Apr.14 17.Sep.14 31.Dec.17

TR 3197 MFF: National Trade Corridor Highway Investment Program-Tranche 3

127.00 - - - 25.Nov.14 10.Dec.17

TR 2742 Component A and B: National Highways and Provincial Roads

373.94 - 248.04 - 30.Mar.11 14.Apr.11 30.Sep.14 25.May.15 66.3

TR 2742 Component C: Irrigation and Drainage and Flood Protection

167.88 - 165.55 - 30.Mar.11 14.Apr.11 30.Sep.14 25.May.15 98.6

TR 2743 Flood Emergency Reconstruction Project - 47.72 - 41.02 30.Mar.11 14.Apr.11 30.Sep.14 86.0

TR 3134 National Highway Network Development in Balochistan Project

195.00 - - - 27.Jun.14 31.Dec.18

WS 2499 MFF-Sindh Cities Improvement Investment Program-Project 1

- 38.08 - 38.01 19.Dec.08 06.Feb.09 31.Dec.12 30.Jun.14 97.3

WS 2975 MFF: Sindh Cities Improvement Investment Program-Project 2

25.10 - 1.46 - 18.Dec.12 08.May.13 31.Aug.17 5.8

WS 2976 MFF: Sindh Cities Improvement Investment Program-Project 2

- 70.29 - 4.24 18.Dec.12 08.May.13 31.Aug.17 6.0

TOTAL 4,053.83 1,460.65 1,259.48 645.96

ADF = Asian Development Fund; AN = agriculture and natural resources; EN = energy; No. = number; OCR = ordinary capital resources; PS = public sector management; TR = transport; WS = water and other urban infrastructure and services a Source: ODB 31 December 2014

b Based on cumulative disbursements as % of net loan amount.