Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
ThankyouFor additional information contact:Grant Davey Managing DirectorE: [email protected] +61 8 9389 2000
Panda Hill Niobium Project
Cradle Definitive Feasibility Study – Panda Hill
Investor Update April 2016
2
Panda Hill Overview
Cradle owns 50% of the Panda Hill Project
Single Open Pit Operation
Mining 72Mt at 0.54% Nb over 30 years
Producing 1.3Mtpa ramping up to 2.6Mtpa after 4th year of production
Mining Licence and Environmental Licences are in place
Panda Hill is located in Mbeya region in South Western Tanzania
• 680km west of capital Dar es Salaam
• Tanzania has a well-established mining industry and culture
• Panda Hill deposit is covered by three Mining Licenses
• Title of these licenses extended to 16 Nov 2026
Excellent local infrastructure
• TAZARA Rail line (2km away)
• Dar es Salaam – Tunduma Highway (5km away)
• Songwe Airport (8km away)
• Major power infrastructure in Mbeya (26km away)
• 26km from industrial city Mbeya
Panda Hill Overview
Panda Hill Project
Panda Hill Niobium Deposit
Panda Hill Proximity to Infrastructure
3
Panda Hill will be the worlds next Niobium mine due to robust economics
DFS Overview• NPV8 US$542M (post tax)
• LOM average EBITDA of US$112Mpa
• 4.75 year pay back
• Initial capital expenditure of US$196M (expansion US$93m in year 4 to increase capacity from 1.3Mtpa to 2.6Mtpa)
• LOM of 30+ years
• LOM Average Niobium price of US$41.89/kg
DFS results demonstrated• NPV8 US$542M (post tax)
• NPV10 US$404M (post tax)
• IRR 27% (post tax)
• LOM C1 US$18.30/kg
• LOM Total Opex US$21.34/kg
Panda Hill Overview
Panda Hill Project DFS Results
Panda Hill Operations
Panda Hill 2015 ResourceReported Above a 0.3% Nb2O5 Lower Cut-off
Combined Carbonatite
Classification Million Tonnes Nb2O5 % Nb2O5 Content (KT)
Measured 16 0.63 9Indicated 53 0.50 263Inferred 109 0.48 528
Total 178 0.50 891
Panda Hill Resource
4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
FY2
016
FY2
018
FY2
019
FY2
020
FY2
021
FY2
023
FY2
024
FY2
025
FY2
026
FY2
028
FY2
029
FY2
030
FY2
031
FY2
033
FY2
034
FY2
035
FY2
036
FY2
038
FY2
039
FY2
040
FY2
041
FY2
043
FY2
044
FY2
045
FY2
046
FY2
048
US$
M
Low Capex, strong margin & long life generates compelling economics and returns with significant leverage to positive niobium outlook
Panda Hill Overview
Compelling Economics
Project Free Cashflow
Niobium Price (US/kg Nb) 38 40 42 44 46
Ungeared NPV10 (post-tax) 282 343 404 465 526
Project IRR (post-tax) 23% 25% 27% 30% 32%
NPV & IRR Sensitivity to LT Niobium Price (Management Case)
Running NPV10 (100% basis ungeared)
Peak NPV10~US$898m
Assumed Case
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
(150)
(100)
(50)
-
50
100
150
FY2
016
FY2
018
FY2
020
FY2
022
FY2
024
FY2
026
FY2
028
FY2
030
FY2
032
FY2
034
FY2
036
FY2
038
FY2
040
FY2
042
FY2
044
FY2
046
FY2
048
Cu
mu
lati
ver
Cas
hfl
ow
(U
S$M
)
Cas
hfl
ow
(U
S$M
)
Cashflow
Cumulative Cashflow
5
$122,533
$96,667
$37,615
Elk Creep (NioCorp) Aley (Taseko) Panda Hill (Cradle)
Low capital costs due to favourable metallurgy & existing infrastructure, making Panda Hill extremely capital efficient vs. other undeveloped niobium deposits
Panda Hill Overview
Panda Hill Project Capital Cost
Capital Intensity vs. Other Undeveloped Deposits (US$/t annual Nb Production)
Capital Costs Summary
1
1. Production based on average LOM
Item US$m %
Summary
Project Capital Costs 165.2 84%
Pre Production 30.5 16%
Total 195.6 100%
Project Capital Costs
Mining 3.1 2%
Plant 75.4 46%
Infrastructure 7.8 5%
TSF & Water 42.5 26%
In-directs 4.2 3%
Management Costs 14.3 9%
Subtotal 147.3 90%
Project Contingency 17.8 10%
Project Escalation 0.0 0%
Total 165.2 100%
Pre-Production
First Fills 2.7 9%
Spares 1.9 6%
Owners 4.7 15%
Pre Production 15.0 50%
Prison Relocation 6.2 20%
Total 30.5 100%
1. Figures have been rounded2. Peak Working Capital is estimated at US$8.7M
6
DFS Demonstrates a Highly Economic Project
Initial 10 years mining predominantly in the higher grade Angel Zone of exclusively Measured and Indicated Resources
Key production figures for first 10 years:
• Average grade: 0.68% Nb2O5
• Average recovery: 61%
• Strip ratio: 2.5 to 1
Key production figures for Life Of Mine:
• Average grade: 0.54% Nb2O5
• Average recovery: 61%
• Strip ratio: 1.5 to 1
Mining Study:
• SRK performed the pit optimisation using Whittle based on the following parameters
• LOM Average Niobium price of US$44/kg
• Processing cost US$22.5 to US$23.3/tonne (depending on material type)
• Processing recoveries of 55% to 68% (depending on material type)
• Average LOM mining cost
• $11.35/t ore ($4.42/t TMM)
• Pit wall angles of bench-stack pit slope angles of 46° and 49° for weathered domains and 55° for fresh material domains
• 30 year mine life
Panda Hill Overview
Panda Hill Project DFS Parameters
Panda Hill Ore Body
7
$22.00/kg
$15.00/kg$18.30/kg
$21.96/kg
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Niobec(Magris)
Catalão(AngloAmerican)
Panda Hill LOM(Cradle)
Panda Hill Yrs 1-4(1.3Mtpa)(Cradle)
Operating costs are predominately mining & processing and provide a robust margin relative to long term niobium price
Panda Hill Overview
Robust Operating Costs
Mine Site Cash Costs
Assumed Long term Niobium PriceUS$42/kg Nb
US$/kg Nb
Average Niobium Price over Last 5 YearsUS$41/kg Nb
It is widely accepted in the industry that CBMMis the lowest cost producer given its enhanced
scale & grade, although does not publicly release any financial information
LOM Production Cost Breakdown US$/kg Nb
$5.01/kg
$11.62/kg
$1.67/kg
$18.30/kg
$3.03/kg
$21.34/kg
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Mining Processing General &Admin
Mine SiteCash Cost
Transport,Marketing &
Royalties
Total CashCost
8
Design based on successful existing operational Niobium processing facilities
• The flotation process is similar to Niobec
• The concentrate leach is similar to Catalao
• Final step in the conversion process is similar to CBMM
Process Plant Design and Flowsheet
• Based on extensive testwork undertaken at SGS Canada, including 3 piloting campaigns
• Expandable plant designed ramping up from 1.3Mtpa to 2.6Mtpa after 4th year of production
Panda Hill Overview
Processing Development
Panda Hill Flow Sheet
9
Significant Resource Upside
• Total Carbonatite Mineral Resource of 178Mt at 0.50% Niobium
• Only ~40% of the area of the carbonatite has been properly drill-tested
• Mineralisation open in all directions
• Exploration upside potential for remaining untested 60% of carbonatite
contained with 22.1km2 of mining licenses
• Represents long asset life in a growing market positioning Panda Hill to
become a long term producer of Niobium
Panda Hill Overview
Geology
Carbonatite Boundary
Carbonatite Boundary
10
37 37.2
41.142.9 42.8
41.1 40.8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Niobium has a history of stable prices given increasing underlying demand and supply responsibility
Niobium Overview
Stable Pricing
Niobium Price History (Average annual value of ferroniobium imports, US$/kg)
Between 2006 and 2008 there was a significant increase in prices, instigated by CBMM to address the structural under-valuing of ferroniobium. The market accepted the increase and stability has been retained at the higher level.
11
Demand has steadily increased since 2000 and is forecast to grow at ~3.0% p.a.
Niobium Overview
Global Demand for Niobium
Global Ferroniobium Demand Forecast (kt FeNb)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Base Demand Demand Growth (Expected Steel Growth) Demand Growth (Normal Nb Intensity increase) Demand Growth (Increased China Nb Intensity to 60g/t)
4.1%
3.0%
1.5%
CAGRThe amount of Nb used per tonne of steel (Niobium Intensity) has been steadily
increasing as Nb steel represents the high quality, new-age end of the steel market.
12
Next Steps
Finalise offtake agreements
Secure debt financing
Value engineering to look at cost reduction opportunities
Front end engineering and design on critical items to reduce the construction period
Construction permitting processes
Procurement of some long lead items
Early site establishment from the main site based contractor
Formal decision to Mine Q4 CY2016
Project Development
Where to from here?