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Cradle Mountain Demand Potential Assessment
February 2016
2
Contents
Introduction
Interstate findings
Intrastate findings
Overall execution imperatives
Appendix
3
Background and objectives
Background
−Cradle Mountain is a primary gateway to the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area
− It has been identified that the region would benefit from ‘precinct revitalisation’, hence the
development a Cradle Mountain Revitalisation Master Plan has been proposed
−BDA was commissioned to undertake a consumer demand assessment to provide input
to the Master Plan, in the form of a Cradle Mountain Demand Potential Assessment ►The demand potential assessment included online surveys in both interstate and intrastate markets
Primary objectives
−To provide consumer feedback in relation to the Cradle Mountain Master Plan concept
−To provide estimates of potential incremental demand for the region resulting from the
redevelopment
−To provide execution imperatives for the Cradle Mountain Master Plan
−To assess potential incremental benefit for Tasmania from the development
4
Fieldwork
BDA conducted the research via online surveys
− Interstate sample: ►644 interstate residents were surveyed, all of whom were considering visiting Tasmania for a holiday
in the next 2 years
• For the purposes of the demand projections international demand is assumed to convert in line with the tested interstate market
►A subset of 208 interstate residents were later recontacted to provide additional outputs, all of whom
had previously indicated that they were likely to visit Cradle Mountain
− Intrastate sample: ►211 Tasmanian residents were surveyed
Survey structure
−Respondents were exposed to stimulus of the Cradle Mountain experience
today, then the Cradle Mountain Master Plan concept
−Responses and intended behaviour measured for each element of the concept
5
Interstate findings
Recent demand trends
Pre-stimulus
−Past and future travel
Cradle Mountain today (post-stimulus)
−Core metrics and impact on intention
−Barriers
Redeveloped Cradle Mountain (post-stimulus)
−Core metrics and impact on intention
−Details of intended Cradle Mountain trip
−New Cradle Mountain experiences
−Barriers
−Transport preference and pricing expectation
Incremental demand estimates
Summary and implications
6
Steady growth in Aus
overnight trips −Both interstate & inbound
demand up 7% year on year Interstate holidays growing but not as
strongly, up 2% year on year
Australia travel demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
Aus Interstate demand Overnight (millions) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from NVS
Total
Holidays
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
Aus Inbound demand Overnight (millions) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from IVS
Total
Holidays
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
Tas travel demand
Total Tas demand
growing in line with Aus − Total Interstate growing 6%
year on year, inbound 7% Both largely in line with national
trends, hence share is steady
Tas holiday demand
very strong − Interstate growing 17% year
on year, Inbound 11%
−Both gaining share of Aus
demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Tas Interstate demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS
Tas % of Aus Interstate Share of interstate trips (%)
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS
Total
Holidays
Total
Holidays
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
020406080
100120140160180
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Tas Inbound demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS
Tas % of Aus Inbound Share of inbound (%)
Derived by BDA from TVS / IVS
Total
Holidays
Total
Holidays
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
Cradle Mountain overnight demand
Cradle Mtn demand
also growing strongly − Interstate & Inbound both up
over 20% year on year And trending similarly
Nearly all trips are holidays
−Share of Tas trips recovering
from recent dip Early growth in recent cycle was
largely to Hobart..
..but regional areas (including Cradle
Mtn) now lifting strongly
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Cradle Mountain Interstate demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS
Cradle Mountain % of Tas Interstate Share of interstate trips (%)
Derived by BDA from TVS
Total
Holidays
Total
Holidays
05
10152025303540
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
0
20
40
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
Cradle Mountain Inbound demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS
Cradle Mountain % of Tas Inbound Share of inbound (%) Derived by BDA from TVS
Total
Holidays
Total
Holidays
9
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
Cradle Mountain day trip demand
Interstate day trip
demand steady −Not as strong as overnight,
hence day trips % is down
Inbound day trips
growing strongly − Largely in line with overnight
demand
0
20
40
60
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
Cradle Mountain Interstate day trips Day trips (000's) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS
Day trip share of total CM Interstate Share of interstate trips (%)
Derived by BDA from TVS
Total
Holidays
Total
Holidays
05
1015202530354045
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
02468
1012141618
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
9
Jun 1
0
Jun 1
1
Jun 1
2
Jun 1
3
Jun 1
4
Jun 1
5
Cradle Mountain Inbound day trips Day trips (000's) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS
Day trip share of total CM Inbound Share of inbound (%) Derived by BDA from TVS
Total
Holidays
Total
Holidays
Day trip demand refers to those who visited and
stopped at Cradle Mountain but did not stay overnight
10
Past & future travel (Pre-stimulus)
75
70
52
Overnight within own state
Travelled to another state
Travelled overseas
7
14
35
23
10
11
Day trip
1
2
3
4
5+
Leisure travel over the last 12 months (%)
Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn
region in the next 2 years (%)
# nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs
Widely travelled −¾ have travelled intrastate,
70% interstate and ½ OS
− 100% considering visiting
Tas in next 2 years (by def'n) Big eastern states also considered by
~1/3, other slower
− 36% have been to Cradle
Mountain before
− 45% intend to visit Cradle in
the next two years i.e. very likely or certain to visit
1
13
31
32
13
10
Not at all likely
Not likely
Likely
Very likely
Certain
Not sure
36
64
Yes
No
Ever visited the Cradle Mountain
region in Tasmania (%)
100
68
64
64
57
51
45
39
Tas
Qld
Vic
NSW
WA
SA
NT
ACT
States considering travelling to for
leisure in the next 2 years (%)
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Which of the following have you done in the last year? Which of the following
states would you consider travelling to for leisure in the next 2 years? Have you ever visited
the Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania?
Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip
in the next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle
Mountain region in Tasmania?
11
Stimulus – Cradle Mountain today
12
Base appeal of Today's Cradle Mtn
52% had No to Low
prior awareness of CM − 1/3rd were moderately aware,
only 15% high/very high
After being shown CM
experience stimulus… −…>85% found it appealing With 44% rating it 'very appealing'
CM experience generally
considered to be unique − 34% rated it 'very unique'…
−…while 57% said it was just
'somewhat unique'
4
3
7
42
44
Very unappealing
Somewhat unappealing
Neither/ not sure
Somewhat appealing
Very appealing
Appeal of the Cradle Mountain
experience (%)
0
1
7
57
34
Not at all unique
Not very unique
Neither/ not sure
Somewhat unique
Very unique
Uniqueness of the Cradle Mountain
experience (%)
23
29
34
10
5
No awareness
Low awareness
Moderate awareness
High awareness
Very high awareness
Previous awareness of the Cradle
Mountain experiences (%)
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Before reading this information, how aware were you of the depth and range of
the Cradle Mountain experience? How appealing is the Cradle Mountain experience?
Questions: Thinking of all the different places you have travelled to, how unique would you
say the Cradle Mountain experience is?
13
Stimulus impact on intention
Minimal impact on intention to visit −While CM was considered appealing,
intention to visit is largely unchanged
−Again, a 2-3 nights the most preferred length
of stay
Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn in the next 2
years, after seeing stimulus (%)
3
8
32
28
15
14
Day trip
1
2
3
4
5+
# of nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % now Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs
2
11
31
32
13
11
Not at all likely
Not likely
Likely
Very likely
Certain
Not sure
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain in the
next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain
region?
Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%)
-13
-11
-1
-2
32
32
13
13
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
45
46
Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely
14
Barriers to visiting today's Cradle Mtn
Amongst those unlikely to visit CM… −…Cradle Mtn's current offer just failing to
generate sufficient interest
−Nearly half said they had other places they'd
rather visit, and ¼ have it down the to-do list
− 19% have already been to Cradle Mountain
and are not interest in returning
−Cost and distance also a deterrent for some
49
26
19
18
15
10
9
8
6
3
3
3
1
1
There are other places I’d prefer to travel to
I would like to go, just not right now
Have been to Cradle Mountain before and amnot interested in returning
It costs too much to get there
I’m just not interested
The climate is unappealing
Too far from where I live
Not enough activities that I like to participate in
Don't see the value in this holiday experience
It takes too long / too hard to get there
Not intending to visit Tasmania
Not suitable for children
The accommodation is not appealing
I don’t know enough about it
Reasons why are you unlikely to visit Cradle Mountain,
after seeing stimulus % now Not at all/Not likely to visit in next 2 years, n=80
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Which of the following are reasons why are you unlikely to visit Cradle
Mountain? (choose as many as apply)
15
Not intending to visit Cradle Mountain − Other destinations more appealing
►Other parts of Australia are more appealing
►I'll be mostly travelling overseas for the next few years
►Nothing to do there
− Been before, would rather go somewhere new
►Have been there before - would rather visit other places in
Australia that I haven't been to before
►I have been before, and whilst very enjoyable, I have lots
of other places on my list to see
►I was there not long ago & would like to see other places
− Outdoor activities unappealing for some
►Hiking & outdoor activities are not for me
►I don't like fishing or camping, bushwalking
►More interested in food and wine
− Current experience not suitable for all
►I have small children and small children can not walk that
long. Cradle Mountain is more for adults or teenagers
►Too old to enjoy all the experiences
►When I visited Cradle Mountain in years past I was much
fitter, one of the best things to do is the walks and I don't
think I would be up to it.
Intending to visit Cradle Mountain − Unique, remote wilderness where you can relax
►Beautiful rugged part of Australia unlike any other in its
wild and cool beauty: nature at its best
►Seems unique and very wild, not many people around
►A great place to get away from the busy Sydney life with
lots to do and relaxation
►The climate & landscape are so different to Queensland
− Experience nature through walks & other activities
►While I'm still able & fit enough to do some bushwalking
and experience the wonderful scenery and peacefulness
►I love visiting natural landmarks and enjoy walking in
nature and seeing wildlife.
►I can enjoy the beautiful view of Dove Lake, have a short
rainforest walk & see Tasmanian Devils. I also want to
experience canyoning which sounds very intriguing
− Positive recommendations/past experience
►The views and tranquillity were breath taking and I will go
back at one stage or another
► Friends have recommended I go there, and I've always
planned on doing so - I never realised though that it was
more than just a pretty view
CM today intention – Qualitative summary
Remote wilderness attractive & WOM positive, but not appealing enough / suitable for all
Question: Please briefly explain why you are likely / not likely to visit Cradle Mountain in the
next 2 years
16
Stimulus – Redeveloped Cradle Mountain
Note: abbreviated stimulus shown
17
Clear gains in intentions
for visit Cradle Mountain
region… −…with redevelopment of the
visitor experience Gaining in both the general likelihood
of visiting, and in degree of certainty
18% 'Certain' to visit redeveloped
CM, up from 13% as it is today..
..’Very likely’ also lifted from 32% to
37%
−Very low negative response 2% are ‘Not at all’ likely to visit
Shift summary: Intention to visit
Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain in next 2 years (%)
45
46
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
55
Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip
in the next two years? Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle
Mountain in the next two years?
Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how
likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years?
-13
-11
-9
-1
-2
-2
32
32
37
13
13
18
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus
Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely
18
Again, CM stands out as being highly unique −Redevelopment strengthens proportion that count it as 'very
unique; up from 34% to 43%
Redevelopment also lifting likelihood of visiting − 74% more likely to visit Cradle Mountain in light of the
proposed improvements..
− ..and over ½ intend to visit in the next 2 years Length of stay remains fairly steady (around 2-3 nights), though slightly more
now considering a longer visit (4+ nights lifting from 29% to 34%)
Impact of CM redevelopment
Uniqueness of the redeveloped
Cradle Mountain (%)
1
3
9
43
43
Not at all unique
Not very unique
Neither / not sure
Somewhatunique
Very unique
3
8
27
28
16
18
Day trip
1
2
3
4
5+
Likelihood of visiting the redeveloped
Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years (%)
# of nights would spend in redeveloped
CM region % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs
2
9
22
37
18
12
Not at all likely
Not likely
Likely
Very likely
Certain
Not sure
Redevelopment impact on likelihood
of visiting the Cradle Mountain (%)
2
3
21
43
31
Much less likely
Less likely
Neither more orless likely
More likely
Much more likely
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Thinking of all the different places you have travelled to, how unique would you
say redeveloped Cradle Mountain region is? Given the redevelopment of the visitor
experience at Cradle Mountain, would you be more or less likely to visit Cradle Mountain?
Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how
likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Given the redevelopment,
how many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?
19
− Enhanced accessibility for older visitors & children
►It makes the area accessible and more comfortable for
older visitors
►The area seems to be much more accessible and I
would very much like to take my children to see the area
− Lots to do other than bushwalking
►A lot more to do there these days other than go
bushwalking. I like the fact that this area has been
especially developed for day visitors by the inclusion of
organized group tours and the bistro and lounge areas
Not intending to visit redeveloped CM
− Some prefer it as is, development will bring crowds
►Just leave it alone, the whole reason to go there is to
enjoy natural beauty, anything manmade gets in the way
►I think it would still be worth visiting, but given that it
would attract more people and small children, I'd be less
willing to stay for a long time. It would be too crowded
− Less developed or overseas destinations preferred
►Have been before and would rather see other places. My
preference is to visit less developed natural areas
►I prefer to spend my holidays overseas
Intending to visit redeveloped CM
− Redevelopment adds to the experience
►Always wanted to return – this redevelopment, in
particular the skyrail, makes it even more appealing
►I love the region. The last visit was bleak and cold but
still enjoyable. The redevelopment would make it 200%
more enjoyable and memorable
►Warm and welcoming, hopefully this development goes
ahead. I always thought Cradle Mountain was a bit hard to
access, but this sounds very inviting
− Attractive facilities with increased comfort
►Haven't been on a skyrail before & views look amazing. I
enjoy the comforts of indoors but also enjoy the outdoors
►Everything sounds amazing, great places to eat,
beautiful location, great education, wonderful facilities
►Sounds like the kind of experience I would enjoy. I like
the idea of visiting CM but have been put off by the cold
and physical activity which I am not up to any more
− Showcasing the natural environment
►It is an amazing area and the redevelopment will
enhance but not detract (as it seems environmentally
friendly) from the area’s beautiful surroundings
Redeveloped CM intention: Qual. summary
Redevelopment enhances experience, comfort & accessibility though some prefer it as is
Question: Please briefly explain why you are likely / not likely to visit the redeveloped Cradle
Mountain region
20
Redeveloped Cradle Mtn Experiences
Very high appeal for redeveloped Cradle Mountain experiences: 83% finding the proposed changes appealing, 53% rating the overall
development 'very appealing‘ and Cable Car higher at 63% ‘very appealing’. Dove Lake Viewing Shelter next with 50%, though slightly higher
overall appeal. Other elements also rating very well. Events held at the Alpine Village Courtyard least appeal but still largely positive.
Appeal of redeveloped Cradle Mountain experiences (%)
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: How appealing are each of the following newly developed experiences?
-4
-3
-3
-4
-5
-5
-3
-3
-6
-4
-7
-3
-4
-3
-4
-2
-2
-4
30
21
35
39
38
39
43
45
40
53
63
50
42
36
36
35
35
29
Overall redevelopment
Cable car
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
Pod Shelters along Dove Lake
The Cradle Feast
Alpine Village Guest Lounge Bar
Reimagined Visitor Centre
Visitor Centre Café
Alpine Village Courtyard Events
Very appealing Very unappealing Somewhat appealing Somewhat unappealing
21
Cradle Mtn Experience Appeal
Cable Car clearly the
most appealing element − 65% ranking it as the most
appealing aspect..
− ..of the Cradle Mountain
redevelopment Pod shelters a distant 2nd on 7%
No clear loser − 1/3rd not considering any of
the experiences unappealing
−Guest lounge most likely to
have least appeal..
− ..but still only 13%
13
12
9
8
8
7
6
6
32
Guest Lounge Bar at theAlpine Village
Events held at the AlpineVillage Courtyard
The Cradle Feast
Visitor Centre Café
Pod Shelters along the DoveLake Circuit Walk
Reimagined Visitor Centre
Cable Car
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
None of the above
65
7
7
7
4
4
3
3
1
Cable Car
Pod Shelters along the DoveLake Circuit Walk
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
The Cradle Feast
Visitor Centre Café
Guest Lounge Bar at theAlpine Village
Reimagined Visitor Centre
Events held at the AlpineVillage Courtyard
None of the above
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Least appealing experience of the
CM redevelopment % of those Likely-Certain to visit redeveloped CM
n=494
Most appealing experience of the
CM redevelopment % of those Likely-Certain to visit redeveloped CM
n=494
Questions: Which of the following newly developed experiences do you find the most
appealing? Which of the following newly developed experiences do you find the least
appealing?
22
Cable Car & Dove Lake
Viewing Shelter most likely to
be used −Cable Car tops the list with 83%
− 56% said they would use the
redesigned Visitors Centre
−Alpine Village events & facilities
have lowest planned engagement
Elements of the new visitor experience
Experiences would engage in, if visited Cradle Mountain % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=494
83
74
65
60
56
53
52
41
Cable Car
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
Visitor Centre Café
Pod Shelters along the DoveLake Circuit Walk
Reimagined Visitor Centre
The Cradle Feast
Guest Lounge Bar at the AlpineVillage
Events held at the Alpine VillageCourtyard
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following newly developed
experiences would you engage in?
23
Viewing window & heated
natural shelters top appeal… −…of Dove Lake elements Hold greatest appeal for over ½
Experiencing nature in a comfortable,
independent and low impact way
−Activity booking and park info key
elements of the new Visitor Centre Booking activities most appealing to 61% of
those who would use the reimagined Visitor
Centre
Elements of the new visitor experience
61
51
47
38
35
34
29
28
26
17
1
Large viewing window overlooking Dove Lake
Warm viewing shelter crafted from natural materials
Heated, low impact pod shelters around Dove Lake
Information on local flora, fauna and history
Picnic facilities at Dove Lake
Café/kiosk at the Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
One-on-one park ranger engagement
Low impact space for contemplation
Dove Lake arrival terminal
Special children's area staffed by park rangers
None of the above
Most appealing elements of the new Dove Lake Mtn experience % that would engage in Dove Lake experiences if they visited Cradle Mountain, n=399
61
55
36
32
3
Booking activities such as horse riding, kayaking, quad biketours, canyoning, cycle hire and guided walks
National Park information
Outdoor equipment, local handicrafts and souvenir space
Regional interpretation
None of the above
Most appealing elements of the reimagined Visitor Centre % that would use the Visitor Centre if they visited Cradle Mountain, n=278
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Experiences would engage in, if visited CM % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=494
83
74
65
60
56
53
52
41
Cable Car
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
Visitor Centre Café
Pod Shelters along Dove Lake
Reimagined Visitor Centre
The Cradle Feast
Guest Lounge Bar, Alpine Village
Events at Alpine Village
Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following newly developed
experiences woud you engage in? Which of the following elements of the new Dove Lake
mountain experience do you find most appealing? Please select as many as apply.
Questions: Which of the following elements of the reimagined Visitor Centre do you find
most appealing? Please select as many as apply.
24
− Very good value
► It looks breathtaking and quite reasonably priced as well
►Offers the best viewing of the entire park with an
affordable price tag
− Positive past experience with cable cars
►I believe there should be more skyrails in Australia. The
one in Cairns is a tourist delight and perhaps more tourists
would be drawn to Tasmania with this unique experience
►I love skyrails!
− Ability to carry outdoor equipment attractive
►Being able to take outdoor gear on in the carriages
would make camping more appealing
− Accessible for elderly & children
►As an older person it sounds like a great way to get
close to nature and see it comfortably
►Even small children can enjoy the fun and scenery
− Concerns about spoiling wilderness for a minority
►CM is a recognised wilderness experience. Visitors
should be prepared to hike and deal with the elements.
Skyrail will degrade one of the world's most unique areas
►The construction of this will wreck the area, it is too
touristy and not in keeping with nature
− Fear of heights/water also a problem for some
►I don't like heights, or being over water
Cable Car
− Engage with beautiful environment in a spectacular
and low impact way
►It looks amazing! The ability to travel above the trees,
rivers and lakes and see the wildlife would be spectacular!
►Beautiful panoramic views and gliding through the air in
a nature wilderness is very appealing
►25 minutes of some of the best scenery on the planet
►Able to see everything - the spectacular scenery from
the top and those areas not accessible by foot
►This is the most genuinely appealing. Nobody can
improve on nature and this is what the Skyrail will show
►See the overall beauty of the place without disturbing it
− Comfortable, weather proof & no hiking required
►Able to experience the area in comfort all year round
►I never imagined I would be able to see that much of the
lake & surrounding valley, without trekking through there
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please
briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing?
-3 -7 21 63 Appeal
Very appealing Very unappealing Somewhat appealing Somewhat unappealing
25
Pod Shelters along Dove Lake
− Great for resting & shelter on independent walks
►I like the idea of being able to stop, rest, get warm,
maybe have a picnic, then moving on
►Getting older now and the ability to rest in the warmth
on a day walk is very appealing
►It's great to have shelter from the elements if necessary
►I prefer to explore by myself. Most of the other
attractions seem 'shared‘
− Man made structures may detract from nature
►For a 6km walk, I would hope there's not more then two
(one at the end of the walk, one midway). Too many of
these man-made structures would ruin the natural beauty
►Do not look particularly natural based on current design
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
− Enjoy the peace and views in a natural setting
►I enjoy mostly the peace and serenity of Cradle Mountain
and I find the viewing shelter to be more useful to me and
the reason why I visit there
►It appears to be one aspect which won't disrupt the
natural area so much. It blends into the environment
►So relaxing and beautiful. I could sit there for hours
− Not really necessary and may spoil beauty
►I would not really need a viewing shelter to enjoy the lake
►Has the possibility of tainting the lake’s natural beauty
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please
briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing?
-3 -3 35 50 Appeal -4 -4 39 42 Appeal
Very appealing Very unappealing Somewhat appealing Somewhat unappealing
26
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
The Cradle Feast
− Enjoy tasting local cuisine, fun for the kids
►Have heard a lot of positive things about Tasmanian
cuisine
►We love experiencing food of the local area
►More for the kids to do and see
− But some prefer to spend time alone with
family and find food options unappealing
►Don't drink wine, and when on holidays I prefer to
spend time with loved ones not others
►Not much of a fan of overpriced gourmet food -
would rather have simpler choices of food and drink
Guest Lounge Bar
− Welcoming & comfortable after a day of hiking
►The thought of sitting at the end of a day out hiking with
a drink in front of a fire sounds amazing
►I would enjoy a quiet drink whilst viewing the beautiful
scenery
►It would be a welcome place to unwind after my
adventure
− Some feel it is 'touristy' and out of place
►You go there to look at the beauty of the place not to
drink and party. Sounds resorty and too touristy for me
►Looks expensive and too fancy for my tastes
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please
briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing?
-5 -3 38 36 Appeal -5 -4 39 36 Appeal
Very appealing Very unappealing Somewhat appealing Somewhat unappealing
27
►It would be nice to relax with a coffee and cake after
exploring the area
►Will provide a nice break and spot to take in the views
− Some don’t consider the café a big attraction
►Seen one seen them all. No one travels to see a visitor
centre cafe.
►I would rather see the experiences than eat at a café
Events at Alpine Village
− Provide variety other than scenery
►I like to see and hear different things, not just visit scenery
►Sounds like a unique experience
►Varied and interesting, lively
− Some prefer quieter wilderness holidays
►We are there to view pristine nature: leave that kind of
razzamatazz to the more urban areas!!!
►I don't like crowds of people and prefer quieter places
when on holiday
Reimagined Visitor Centre
− Good for information, park services & views
►A great place to hang out before & after exploring the area
►Good for all information on Cradle Mountain activities
►I can learn more about the region
►The range of services it will offer
− ‘Just a visitor centre’ to some, info online anyway
►Just a visitor centre. There's more exciting stuff out there
►Can find this information on the internet if you wish
►Entrance looks dull. Needs some murals and cultural
welcome signs as with many tourist info centres
Visitor Centre Café
− Current café could be improved, nice spot to relax
►The existing Visitor Centre Cafe is very basic and could be
improved a great deal
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please
briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing?
-3 -2 43 35 Appeal
-3 -2 45 35 Appeal
-6 -4 40 29 Appeal
Very appealing Very unappealing Somewhat appealing Somewhat unappealing
28
Barriers to visiting tomorrows Cradle Mtn
A general lack of interest remains
the primary barrier for those still not
intending to visit Cradle Mtn −While the new experiences cuts down the %
that had already crossed CM off the 'to-do'
list (i.e. been before, don't want to return) Down to 10% from 19% after Cradle Mountain Today
stimulus
−…stronger pull of other destination, & cost of
Tas holiday, still keeping some away
Reasons why unlikely to visit redeveloped Cradle
Mountain region % now Not at all/Not likely to visit in next 2 yrs, n=70
40
27
16
14
11
10
7
7
7
6
3
1
There are other places I’d prefer to travel to
I would like to go, just not right now
I’m just not interested
Don't see the value in this holiday experience
It costs too much to get there
Have been to Cradle Mountain before and amnot interested in returning
The climate is unappealing
Not enough activities that I like to participate in
It's negative impact on the local environment
Too far from where I live
It takes too long / too hard to get there
I don’t know enough about it
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Which of the following are reasons why are you unlikely to visit the redeveloped
Cradle Mountain region? (choose as many as apply)
29
Transport preference & pricing
Use of Cable Car would be
central to redeveloped CM − 86% would use it to travel between the
visitors centre & Dove Lake…
−…some combining it with a walk/cycle
to/from the lake
Cable Car considered good value −Cheaper than expected for 53%
Transport would use to travel between the Visitor
Centre & Dove Lake % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=494
86
46
20
2
Valley Skyrail
Walk to/from Dove Lake
Cycle to/from Dove Lake
None of the above
Ticket pricing of Cable Car experience % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=494
2
5
40
39
14
Much more than expected
More than expected
What I expected
Cheaper than expected
Much cheaper than I expected
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following transport options
would you use to travel between the Visitor Centre and Dove Lake? If you would like to catch
the Valley Skyrail to Dove Lake and walk the return trip, please select both options.
Questions: The return trip Valley Skyrail experience will cost $10 for an adult and $30 for a
family. Are these ticket prices more or less than you would have expected?
30
Shift summary: Duration of stay
More likely to visit CM under
redevelopment…
…and likely to stay longer −More considering staying 4+ night in
redeveloped region (34%)…
−…than in current conditions (29%)
− Intended average length of stay up to 3.5
nights # of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region:
Post 'Today' Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)
3
8
32
28
15
14
Day trip
1
2
3
4
5+
# of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region: Post
'Tomorrow' Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)
3
8
27
28
16
18
Day trip
1
2
3
4
5+
# of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region:
Pre-Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)
7
14
35
23
10
11
Day trip
1
2
3
4
5+
Average # of nights would stay at Cradle Mountain
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus
2.9
3.2
3.5
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region? Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how
many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?
31
Shift summary: Been to CM vs Not
Strong impact on those who have
been before −Previous visitors have higher intention to
visit redeveloped Cradle Mountain..
−…and the impact of the redevelopment was
also greater
−Previous visitors also likely to stay longer if
visiting again
Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) n=401
42
45
53
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus
Avg # of nights would stay at CM n=401
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus
2.8
3.2
3.4
Have visited Cradle Mountain Before Have never been to Cradle Mountain
Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) n=229
51
49
59
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus
Avg # of nights would stay at CM n=229
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus
3.1
3.4
3.6
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip
in the next two years? Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain,
how likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years?
Questions: How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?
Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how many nights do
you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?
-14
-13
-10
-2
-2
-1
31
32
37
19
17
21
-13
-10
-8
-1
-2
-2
32
33
36
9
11
17
Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely
32
New demand profile
New demand = those who
became intenders − After seeing the redevelopment
− A range of demographics make
up new demand Largely similar to total intenders
− Though more new demand from
the older age groups New demand also more likely to have low
(retirees) or very high income
Slightly more likely from NSW, WA and NT
6
23
18
13
17
23
9
23
21
17
13
16
18-24 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
55-64 years
65+ years
34
24
21
14
3
3
1
33
25
24
10
6
1
1
NSW
VIC
QLD
WA
SA
NT
ACT
33
27
16
7
5
4
3
4
34
29
12
8
5
3
6
3
Partner
Partner & dependents
Alone
With parents
Partner & adult children
Single with dependents
Flatmates
Other
24
15
21
10
10
5
8
3
2
19
17
16
19
11
7
7
2
2
Less than $40k
$40k-$60k
$60k-$80k
$80k-$100k
$100k-$125k
$125k to $150
$150k to $200k
$200k to $250k
$250k or more
Age (%) Location (%)
Household income (%) Household situation (%)
*NB: New demand = Not intending to visit current CM experience in next 2 years but 'Very
likely' – 'Certain' under redevelopment. Intenders = 'Very likely' – 'Certain' to visit
redeveloped CM.
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
48
52
50
50
Male
Female
Gender (%)
New demand (n=95) Total Intenders (n=354)
33
Assessing incremental demand
Core assumptions
− All potential visitors are assumed to be aware of the redeveloped Cradle Mountain
− All purposes of visitor are assumed to convert at the rate measured in the research
►All international demand is assumed to convert at the rate measured for Interstate respondents
− The results reflect visitors to Tasmania only, intrastate demand was not in scope
►Hence, any incremental demand from within Tasmania would be additional to the following estimates
− Excluding the impact of the redevelopment, the region and Tasmania are assumed to hold share of
national tourism demand (i.e. the Trend outlook)
− The tested impact is assumed to reflect an opening date of January 2018 and tested demand is
assumed to be fully realised by the YT Dec 2018
− The current mix of day and overnight visitors to the region is applied into the future
►Hence, any conversion of day visitors into overnight visitors would be additional nights over and above the following estimates
− Base expenditure in Cradle Mountain is estimated as follows:
►For overnight visitors to the region, average nightly accommodation expenditure in Tas by Cradle Mtn visitors is applied to all
nights spent in Cradle Mountain + 50% of average daily ‘other’ expenditure in Tas by Cradle Mtn visitors (excluding transport)
►For day visitors to the region, 50% of average spend per day (excluding accommodation and transport) is applied to all day
visits to Cradle Mountain
►Expenditure per night / day is assumed to grow in line with inflation forecasts
− Incremental expenditure scenarios are then applied:
►Scenario 1: Cable Car only. 83% would engage in Cable Car. At $10 per person = incremental $8.30 per person
►Scenario 2: Cable Car + additional F&B. 85% would engage with at least one of the visitors café, lounge bar, village events or
Cradle Feast. At an assumed additional expenditure of $10 per person = incremental $8.50 per person (+$8.30 for Cable Car)
34
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
Dec 0
8
Dec 0
9
Dec 1
0
Dec 1
1
Dec 1
2
Dec 1
3
Dec 1
4
Dec 1
5
Dec 1
6
Dec 1
7
Dec 1
8
Dec 1
9
Dec 2
0
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Significant incremental
visitor demand −Redevelopment estimated to
bring in 41k additional trips..
− ..in addition to demand
provided by market growth
−Majority of additional trips
are overnight
Visitors to Cradle Mountain
Total visitors to Cradle Mountain Interstate and International – All purposes of trip (000’s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO
Trend outlook
Projected demand
with redevelopment
2018 projections Trend outlook Projected with
redevelopment Incremental demand
Total visitors 203.7k 244.4k 40.7k
Overnight visitors 136.1k 163.3k 27.2k
Day visitors 67.5k 81.0k 13.5k
35
75
125
175
225
275
325
375
425
Dec 0
8
Dec 0
9
Dec 1
0
Dec 1
1
Dec 1
2
Dec 1
3
Dec 1
4
Dec 1
5
Dec 1
6
Dec 1
7
Dec 1
8
Dec 1
9
Dec 2
0
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
79k more nights in CM
from redevelopment − 29% more nights than would
otherwise be achieved
−Via from more visitors and
increased length of stay Resulting from the redevelopment
Nights at Cradle Mountain
Total nights at Cradle Mountain Interstate and International – All purposes of trip (000’s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO
Trend outlook
Projected demand
with redevelopment
2018 projections Trend outlook Projected with
redevelopment Incremental demand
Total nights 276.0k 355.2k 79.2k
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dec 0
8
Dec 0
9
Dec 1
0
Dec 1
1
Dec 1
2
Dec 1
3
Dec 1
4
Dec 1
5
Dec 1
6
Dec 1
7
Dec 1
8
Dec 1
9
Dec 2
0
Mil
lio
ns
Scenario 1: −Additional spend from
incremental visits & nights..
− ..plus Cable Car expenditure
−Substantial lift in regional
expenditure An additional $18m estimated in 2018
resulting from the redevelopment
Vast majority coming from overnight
visitors
Scenario 2: −Additional spend from
incremental visits & nights..
− ..plus Cable Car spend &
additional F&B spend
−Greater lift again in regional
expenditure An additional $22m estimated in 2018
resulting from the redevelopment
Again most from overnight visitors
Expenditure at Cradle Mountain
Total expenditure at Cradle Mountain Interstate and International – All purposes of trip ($millions) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO
Trend outlook
Scenario 1: Projected $
with redevelopment + Cable
Car expenditure
2018 projections Trend
outlook
Projected with
redevelopment
(scenario 1)
Incremental
demand
(scenario 1)
Projected with
redevelopment
(scenario 2)
Incremental
demand
(scenario 2)
Total expenditure $50.9m $68.9m $18.0m $72.6m $21.7m
Spend by
overnight visitors $47.7m $64.3m $16.6m $67.4m $19.7m
Spend by day
visitors $3.2m $4.5m $1.3m $5.2m $2.0m
Scenario 2: Projected $ with
redevelopment + Cable Car
and F&B expenditure
37
Redevelopment
provides an additional: − 41k visitors and 79k nights to
the Cradle Mountain region
−Scenario 1 = $18m in
incremental expenditure
−Scenario 2 = $22m in
incremental expenditure
−Majority of new demand from
overnight visitors
Incremental demand summary
Additional
Trips to CM
Additional
Nights in CM
Additional
expenditure in
CM
(scenario 1)
Additional
expenditure in
CM
(scenario 2)
Total visitors 40.7k 79.2k $18.0m $21.7m
Overnight
visitors 27.7k 79.2k $16.6m $19.7m
Day visitors 13.5k n/a $1.3m $2.0m
Forecast incremental demand resulting from Cradle
Mountain Redevelopment (at YT Dec 2018)
38
Cable Car vs Shuttle Bus
Cable Car vastly preferred
over shuttle bus (83%) − 58% consider the redevelopment
less appealing without Cable Car
−…and 38% would be less likely to
visit Cradle Mountain
Cable Car vs Shuttle Bus: Option preferred as
part of the CM redevelopment (%)
83
9
8
Valley Skyrail
Shuttle bus
Neither / not sure
Impact on likelihood of visiting redeveloped Cradle Mountain if Shuttle
Bus replaced the Cable Car (%)
12
26
51
5
7
Much less likely to go if shuttle replaced Skyrail
Less likely to go if shuttle replaced Skyrail
Neither more or less likely/ Not sure
More likely to go if shuttle replaced Skyrail
Much more likely to go if shuttle replaced Skyrail
Impact on view of the Cradle Mountain redevelopment if Shuttle Bus
replaced the Cable Car (%)
20
38
26
8
8
Much less appealing if shuttle replaced Skyrail
Less appealing if shuttle replaced Skyrail
Neither more or less appealing/ Not sure
More appealing if shuttle replaced Skyrail
Much more appealing if shuttle replaced Skyrail
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Which of these options would you prefer? If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with
a shuttle bus service, how would this change your view of the redeveloped CM region?
Questions: If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with a shuttle bus service, would you be more
or less likely to visit the redeveloped Cradle Mountain region?
Information: There is the potential for the Valley Skyrail not to be part of
the Cradle Mountain redevelopment. The Valley Skyrail could instead be
replaced with the existing shuttle bus service. The shuttle bus would
operate as it does today, travelling between the Visitor Centre and a
parking area and basic shelter near Dove Lake. The price of the shuttle
service would be the same as the Valley Skyrail ($10 adult return, $30
return for a family) and would operate when weather permits, whereas
the Valley Skyrail would operate year round in all weather conditions.
39
Intention if Cable Car replaced (New demand)
Cable Car major driver of
new demand − If the Cable Car was replaced with
the shuttle bus..
− ..only 14% of new demand stays
'Very likely' or 'Certain' to visit
−Hence, 86% of incremental
demand is at risk 43% now do not intend or aren’t sure and a
further 42% have shifted back to ‘likely’
Likelihood of visiting redeveloped Cradle Mountain in the
next 2 years, for those unlikely to visit CM today % of New Demand, n=95
0
0
0
93
7
0
Not at all likely
Not likely
Likely
Very likely
Certain
Not sure
Likelihood of visiting redeveloped Cradle Mountain in the
next 2 years if Shuttle Bus replaced the Cable Car % of New Demand, n=95
6
31
42
12
2
7
Not at all likely
Not likely
Likely
Very likely
Certain
Not sure
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with a shuttle bus service, how likely would
you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how
likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years?
New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit
the current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became
‘very likely’ – ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain
concept stimulus.
40
Cable Car: Importance to redevelopment Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: How important is the Valley Skyrail to the overall appeal of the redeveloped
Cradle Mountain experience?
AVERAGE 7.8/10 AVERAGE 7.6/10
4
1
14
40
42
1-2
3-4
5-6
7-8
9-10
5
2
14
43
36
1-2
3-4
5-6
7-8
9-10
New demand* Total intenders
10 = Very
important
1 = Very
unimportant
Cable Car key to appeal
of the development − 82% of total intenders rate
importance 7 or above 42% consider it 9-10
Very few consider the Cable Car
unimportant to the appeal of the
redevelopment
−Cable Car is similarly
important with New Demand i.e. those who became intenders after
being informed of the redevelopment
Importance of Cable Car to appeal of
redeveloped Cradle Mountain % of respondents very likely-certain to visit in the next 2 years, n=148, % of New Demand, n=42*
*Low sample size, indicative only. Sample derived from a recontacted subsample of the total interstate sample.
41
− Better value for money
►More fun then an old bus
►Better views of the beautiful scenery, worth the money
− More environmentally-friendly long term
►The Skyrail may be more expensive to set up but would
be cheaper and more environmentally friendly to run
Shuttle Bus − Lower perceived environmental impact
►It runs on roads already there, it won’t add to the
destruction of the natural beauty
►Less environmental impact. Although no transport would
be better still - just keep the bus for emergencies and keep
the tracks for walkers/hikers only
− May become too 'touristy'
►You will turn the place into just another tourist trap. The
beauty of the Tasmanian wilderness is because it's
unspoiled and undeveloped . What's next - carnival rides?
− Preferable for those with a fear of heights
►I don't like heights!
Cable Car the major driver for
visitation ►The rest of the development is really good, but the
skyrail makes the difference
►To be honest all the items are attractive but the Skyrail
would be amazing for the area & visitors. Sounds brilliant.
►Skyrail would be a reason to visit again
►The skyrail was the most eye catching feature for me,
without it my craving would drastically decrease
►We wouldn't spend as long there if this wasn't available
− More exciting and unique with better views
►Climbing above the tree tops with a great view of the
surroundings or on a shuttle bus - a bit of a no-brainer
►A wonderfully unique scenic experience could be had.
Without the Skyrail it is doubtful we would visit
►Having used skyrail in Qld, it is a more private and better
way to view the area. Also 360º photo opportunities
►More exciting and the view would be stupendous
− Can see CM in all seasons and all weather
►I would like to go in winter and see the snow
►If you hit bad weather and the bus does not operate,
your entire 2 days are wasted
Cable Car vs Shuttle bus – Qualitative
Cable Car exciting, unique & major drawcard, Bus less perceived impact for small minority
Questions: Please briefly explain why you would prefer the Skyrail/Shuttle bus. Please
briefly explain why you would be more likely/less likely to go if shuttle bus replaced Valley
Skyrail.
42
Influence of redevelopment (New Demand)
Of those who became intenders
of Cradle Mountain.. − ..after being informed of the
redevelopment i.e. ‘New Demand’ for Cradle Mountain resulting
from the redevelopment
− 12% said that development was the
primary reason for visiting Tas
− 67% were somewhat influenced by the
redevelopment .. … but may have chosen to visit Tas anyway
− 21% said that the development did not
influence their decision to travel to Tas Though still represent incremental for Cradle Mtn,
i.e. would not visit Cradle without the redevelopment
Influence of CM redevelopment on intended Tas trip % of New Demand, n=42*
12
67
21
Primary influence, unlikely to visitTas otherwise
Some influence, may visit Tasanyway
No influence, likely to visit Tasanyway
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Recontact Survey
Questions: You indicated you were likely to visit Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years.
Which of the following best describes that intended trip?
New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit the
current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became ‘very likely’
– ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain concept stimulus.
*Low sample size, indicative only. Sample derived from a recontacted subsample of the total interstate sample.
43
An additional 40.7k visitors are estimated to visit the Cradle Mt region − 16% of those would not travel to Tas if the redevelopment was not built
Hence, 6.6k visitors are incremental to Tasmania
Incremental demand to Tasmania
100
150
200
250
Dec 0
8
Dec 0
9
Dec 1
0
Dec 1
1
Dec 1
2
Dec 1
3
Dec 1
4
Dec 1
5
Dec 1
6
Dec 1
7
Dec 1
8
Dec 1
9
Dec 2
0
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Visitors to Cradle Mountain Interstate and International (000’s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO
41k incremental
visitors to Cradle Mt (day & overnight visitors)
Influence of redevelopment % of New Demand, n=42*
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
84
16
Yes, I would mostlikely still travel to
Tasmania in the next2 years
No, I would most likelynot travel to Tasmania
in the next 2 years
6.6k incremental
visitors to
Tasmania
Question: If the proposed Cradle Mountain redevelopment was not built, would you still
travel to Tasmania in the next 2 years?
New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit the
current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became ‘very likely’
– ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain concept stimulus. *Low sample size, indicative only. Sample derived from a recontacted subsample of the total interstate sample.
44
More opportunity in shoulder seasons with Cradle Mtn redevelopment −March the most popular month for 19% of those intending to visit CM, Feb & Apr also popular Winter months are least popular, just 11% would visit in June-August
−Demonstrates a potential for an increase in demand for shoulder seasons
Seasonal demand
8 13
19 11
5 3 5
3 8 8 8 8
JanuaryFebruary
MarchAprilMay
JuneJuly
AugustSeptember
OctoberNovemberDecember
Preferred month of travel to redeveloped CM: Total intenders % very likely-certain to visit in next 2 years, n=148
Derived by BDA from CM Recontact Survey
Question: What month do you think you would most likely visit Cradle Mountain?
18 10
12 11
5 5
4 3
6 7
9 11
JanuaryFebruary
MarchAprilMayJuneJuly
AugustSeptember
OctoberNovemberDecember
Current seasonal demand for CM % of inbound & interstate holiday overnight and day trips to CM –
2YT September ‘15 (n=2,000) Derived by BDA from TVS
29 36
11 24
Summer (Dec-Feb)
Autumn (Mar-May)
Winter (Jun-Aug)
Spring (Sep-Nov)
39 28
11 22
Summer (Dec-Feb)
Autumn (Mar-May)
Winter (Jun-Aug)
Spring (Sep-Nov)
Monthly demand Monthly demand
Seasonal demand Seasonal demand
Note: Sample derived from a recontacted subsample of the total interstate sample.
45
Accommodation requirements
Indicative implications for accommodation requirements resulting
from interstate / inbound demand
−While specific supply requirements were not in the scope of this study, indicative
implications of 79k additional visitor nights can be assessed
−At 1.8 visitors per room 79k visitor nights provides 44k room nights per year or
~120 per day
−To meet this demand an additional 160 rooms would be required (at 75%
occupancy)
►Assuming: no impact on current accommodation and that all additional nights require roomed
accommodation
46
Key point summary (1)
A positive tourism environment
−National tourism demand growing with Tasmania very strong, gaining share of holidays ►Cradle Mountain now growing at least in line with total Tas, after losing share in recent years
Cradle Mountain today is an appealing destination but lacks the triggers
to unlock any substantial latent demand with existing experiences
−Considered a unique destination with high appeal driven by an interest in remote,
unique wilderness
−However, no shift in intention was evident after viewing the current offer
►For many, the experience is just not appealing enough vs other destinations, others have been before and not
interested in returning and some deem it unsuitable for their lifestage (older, families etc.)
Very strong response to the redevelopment concept
− Intention lifted substantially from Cradle Mtn today, and intended trips were longer
−The redevelopment was perceived to enhance the core experience & engagement with
the environment..
− ..while opening the destination to a wider pool of potential visitors and also providing
past visitors with a reason to return
47
Key point summary (2)
All elements of redevelopment were well received but Cable Car was the
standout
− Cable Car had clearly highest level of raw appeal and intended engagement
►Highly appealing to a majority and the most preferred element for 65% (next was 7%) and > 80% would engage
►Provides the ability to observe the stunning natural environment in a comfortable, low impact way, added benefit of
good value
− Dove Lake shelter and pods were next most appealing, a peaceful means of enjoying the area
− Other elements also contribute to the attraction of the redevelopment
Significant incremental demand was evident from the redevelopment
− The redevelopment tested is estimated to provide 41k visitors, 79k nights and up to $22m in
incremental demand over and above the trend outlook
►This represents a ~30% increase in nights and > 40% increase in expenditure in the region
− For 79% of those intending to visit, the redevelopment had some influence on the decision travel
to Tasmania, 16% (7k) would be unlikely to travel to Tas if the redevelopment did not go ahead
− Conversion of day visitors to overnight would provide additional demand
►Incremental demand has been applied equally to current levels of day and overnight visitation
►Any conversion of current day visitors into overnight visitors would provide additional nights and expenditure into the
region
48
Intrastate findings
Recent demand trends
Pre-stimulus
−Past and future travel
Cradle Mountain today (post-stimulus)
−Core metrics and impact on intention
−Barriers
Cradle Mountain tomorrow (post-stimulus)
−Core metrics and impact on intention
−Details of intended Cradle Mountain trip
−New Cradle Mountain experiences
−Barriers
−Transport preference and pricing expectation
Incremental demand estimates
Summary and implications
49
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
Tas intrastate travel demand
Strong growth for total
intrastate trips… − Total Tas demand up 10%
year on year Stronger than national growth of 6%
−Holiday demand weaker
− Tas intrastate holidays -5% Aus holidays up slightly 3%, but not
as strong as all purpose demand
Day trips growing for
Aus and Tas − Tas growth stronger than
national growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
Aus intrastate demand Overnight (millions) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from NVS
Total
Holidays
Tas intrastate demand Overnight (000's) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from NVS
Total
Holidays
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
020406080
100120140160180200
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
Aus day trip demand Daytrips (millions) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from NVS
Total
Holidays
Tas day trip demand Daytrips (millions) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from NVS
Total
Holidays
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS
50
0
2
4
6
8
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
Cradle Mtn overnight intrastate demand
Recent lift in trips &
nights to Cradle Mt −However, CM outpaced by
strong Tas holiday demand Hence losing share of holiday trips
3.5% of intra Tas holiday trips include
a stopover in Cradle Mt…
… down from 5% in ’10
020406080
100120140160
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
Cradle Mt intrastate nights Overnight trips (000's) - 24MMA
Derived by BDA from NVS
Cradle Mt % of Tas intrastate nights Share of intrastate overnight trips (%)
Derived by BDA from NVS
Total
Holidays
Total
Holidays
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS
Day trip demand refers to those who visited and stopped at Cradle Mt but did not stay overnight.
0
2
4
6
8
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
Cradle Mt intrastate trips Overnight trips (000's) - 24MMA
Derived by BDA from NVS
Cradle Mt % of Tas intrastate trips Share of intrastate overnight trips (%)
Derived by BDA from NVS
Total
Holidays
Total
Holidays
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
Average nights per trip in Cradle Mt Average no. nights per trip - 24MMA
Derived by BDA from NVS
Total
Holidays
51
Cradle Mountain day trip demand
Daytrips account for >70% of all
intrastate trips to Cradle Mt − Total daytrips to Cradle Mt lifting over the
past year Growth of 14% year on year
Similar trend for holiday daytrips
40
50
60
70
80
90
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
Cradle Mountain intrastate day trips Daytrips (000's) - 24MMA
Derived by BDA from NVS
Day trip share of total Cradle Mt intrastate trips Share of total intrastate trips: overnight trips & daytrips (%)
Derived by BDA from NVS
Total
Holidays
Total
Holidays
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS
Day trip demand refers to those who visited and stopped at Cradle Mt but did not stay overnight.
52
Past & future travel (Pre-stimulus)
73
72
33
Overnight within own state
Travelled to another state
Travelled overseas
14
17
42
14
9
3
Day trip
1
2
3
4
5+
Leisure travel over the last 12 months (%)
Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn
region in the next 2 years (%)
# nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs
Most travel around Aus − >70% travelled within Aus for
leisure in past year 1/3 travelled overseas
Vic top considered interstate dest'n
−High Cradle Mtn visitation &
intention Over ¾ have ever visited
Nearly ½ intend to visit within 2 years
−Short trips most likely 2 nights easily most preferred, 1 night
and also popular
5
14
27
28
20
7
Not at all likely
Not likely
Likely
Very likely
Certain
Not sure
79
21
Yes
No
Ever visited the Cradle Mountain
region in Tasmania (%)
64
49
45
33
28
24
19
Vic
Qld
NSW
SA
WA
NT
ACT
Others states considering travelling
to for leisure in the next 2 years (%)
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Which of the following have you done in the last year? Which of the following
states would you consider travelling to for leisure in the next 2 years? Have you ever visited
the Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania?
Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip
in the next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle
Mountain region in Tasmania?
53
Stimulus – Cradle Mountain today
54
Base appeal of Today's Cradle Mtn
~½ had high awareness
of Cradle Mtn experience − 35% moderate awareness
CM considered very
appealing & unique −After viewing stimulus on the
CM experience… 80% considered it appealing (41% very
appealing)
92% rated the experience unique (very
unique for 30%)
3
6
11
39
41
Very unappealing
Somewhat unappealing
Neither/ not sure
Somewhat appealing
Very appealing
Appeal of the Cradle Mountain
experience (%)
1
1
6
62
30
Not at all unique
Not very unique
Neither/ not sure
Somewhat unique
Very unique
Uniqueness of the Cradle Mountain
experience (%)
2
16
35
30
17
No awareness
Low awareness
Moderate awareness
High awareness
Very high awareness
Previous awareness of the Cradle
Mountain experiences (%)
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Before reading this information, how aware were you of the depth and range of
the Cradle Mountain experience? How appealing is the Cradle Mountain experience?
Questions: Thinking of all the different places you have travelled to, how unique would you
say the Cradle Mountain experience is?
55
Stimulus' impact on intention
Stimulus had some impact on
intention − 7% more intend to visit (very likely / certain)
− Trips of 2 nights again most popular Increase in intended 3 night trips
Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mtn in the next 2
years, after seeing stimulus (%)
11
15
39
20
11
4
Day trip
1
2
3
4
5+
# of nights would spend in Cradle Mtn % now Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs
2
11
25
32
23
6
Not at all likely
Not likely
Likely
Very likely
Certain
Not sure
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain in the
next two years? How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain
region?
Likelihood of visiting CM
in next 2 years (%)
-14
-11
-5
-2
28
32
20
23
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
48
55
Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely
56
Barriers to visiting today's Cradle Mtn
Over ½ of those not intending to visit
Cradle Mtn prefer other places −A high proportion (over 40%) have already
been and don't want to return A further 21% are interested, just not at the moment
Cost and lack of interest stop others from planning a visit
'Other' reasons include the expense and having no one to
travel with
52
41
21
10
10
7
7
7
3
3
17
Prefer to travel to other places
Been before and not interested in returning
Would like to go, just not right now
Just not interested
It costs too much to get there
It takes too long / too hard to get there
The climate is unappealing
Don't see the value in this holiday experience
Too far from where I live
Not enough things to do / activities I like
Other
Reasons why are you unlikely to visit Cradle Mountain,
after seeing stimulus % now Not at all - Not likely to visit in next 2 years, n=29*
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Which of the following are reasons why are you unlikely to visit Cradle
Mountain? (choose as many as apply)
*Low sample size. Indicative only.
57
− A desire to show CM to friends / relatives
►I have a cousin from UK coming to stay and I would want
to show him and his wife Cradle Mountain
− Close proximity increases attraction
► I live close by in Launceston so it is within easy access
►It is beautiful, affordable and close
Not intending to visit CM − Already been, would prefer to go somewhere new
►Been before, nothing new or interesting to go back for
►I live quite near Cradle Mt and have seen it enough, so
would prefer to travel to other parts of Tasmania first
►I would prefer to visit places I have not been to
− A few put off by expense and development
►Too developed, expensive
− However, many would still take visitors there
►The only reason I'd go back again would be to show
friends around
►
Wilderness, peace & proximity inspire many to visit and return
Intending to visit CM − Positive past experiences inspire many to return
►I love this place. Have been twice before and will
definitely be going again
►We travel to Cradle Mountain every winter for 2 nights
− Enjoy the wilderness and mountain scenery
►Favourite place to go, like the wilderness experience
►Good family experience, especially for the youngsters to
get more acquainted with nature and their environment
►See the snow and take the kiddies on an adventure
►To smell the mountain air and enjoy the scenery
►It is pristine wilderness and has easy walks
►Love the many and varied walks one can do. The fact that
it may snow at any time, even in summer makes it a
fascinating area. Wildlife is a unique attraction.
− A peaceful escape
►I love the peace and tranquillity that radiates there
►It is a magical place, serene and just beautiful
CM today intention – Qualitative summary
Question: Please briefly explain why you are likely / not likely to visit Cradle Mountain in the
next 2 years
58
Stimulus – Cradle Mountain tomorrow
Note: abbreviated stimulus shown
59
-14
-11
-7
-5
-2
-4
28
32
36
20
23
27
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus
Redevelopment lifts
Cradle Mtn intention
further −An extra 8% very likely or
certain to visit after seeing
redevelopment stimulus 'Very likely' and 'certain' both gain
~4% after presentation of
redevelopment stimulus
Shift summary: Intention to visit Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip
in the next two years? Having seen this information, how likely are you to visit Cradle
Mountain in the next two years?
Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how
likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years?
48
55
63
Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain in next 2 years (%)
Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely
60
Redeveloped CM also considered unique − Those rating CM 'very unique' rises from 30% to 40%
Improvements impact on likelihood of visiting − 2/3 more likely to visit because of the redevelopment
−With over 60% now intending a visit within 2 years Longer 3 night trips continue to increase in popularity, though 2 nights still
chosen by over 1/3 and most common
Impact of CM redevelopment
Uniqueness of the redeveloped
Cradle Mountain (%)
1
4
12
43
40
Not at all unique
Not very unique
Neither / not sure
Somewhatunique
Very unique
10
13
35
25
12
5
Day trip
1
2
3
4
5+
Likelihood of visiting the redeveloped
Cradle Mountain in the next 2 years (%)
# of nights would spend in redeveloped
CM region % Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs
4
7
19
36
27
8
Not at all likely
Not likely
Likely
Very likely
Certain
Not sure
Redevelopment impact on likelihood
of visiting the Cradle Mountain (%)
3
4
27
41
26
Much less likely
Less likely
Neither more orless likely
More likely
Much more likely
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Thinking of all the different places you have travelled to, how unique would you
say redeveloped Cradle Mountain region is? Given the redevelopment of the visitor
experience at Cradle Mountain, would you be more or less likely to visit Cradle Mountain?
Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how
likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Given the redevelopment,
how many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?
61
− Supporting Tas economy
►I live in Tasmania and I like to support all good development
►A complete new experience for all, and of course jobs
►Anything revamped in Tasmania must be visited by
Tasmanians then shouted out to the world if it's fantastic.
Tourism is all we have now
− A reason to return
►I think it is needed as I have been there many times. It would
be something new to enjoy
Not intending to visit redevelopment − Concerns the natural beauty will be spoilt
►The total opposite experience to what I want at Cradle. It is
already too commercial & there are enough adventure & flight
experiences for those who can't be bothered to go for a walk
►I go there to enjoy the natural beauty, not to be sucked into
lavish man made surroundings which I would imagine you will
be charging and arm and a leg to see
− May be too expensive for Tas residents
►There is little incentive for locals i.e. Tasmanians to stay at
such expensive resorts in their own State. If locals were given
discounted rates it may encourage more locals to visit
Enhances appeal, comfort & uniqueness while supporting Tas
Intending to visit redeveloped CM − Going anyway but redevelopment enhances appeal
►The revamp only adds to the experience, already had
plans to go to CM so it would be given even higher priority
►An enhanced experience - as long as the skyrail is done
sympathetically to the surroundings
►It's such a special place that I would go there even if the
redevelopment didn't happen
− Explore natural beauty with increased comfort
►Makes the whole experience much easier to see and
includes all the creature comforts that I need
►Very scenic and relaxing with adventure and warmth
►It just looks so relaxing, there's plenty to do & it just looks
like such a beautiful place. I really want to go there now!
►All that you are doing will allow a lot more people to see
the real beauty of the region
− A unique experience
►What a unique experience. I have travelled to Switzerland
and used their skyrail but this Cradle Mt. development
would be as good if not better
►Completely different, there is nothing in Tasmania like it
Redeveloped CM intention: Qual. summary
Question: Please briefly explain why you are likely / not likely to visit the redeveloped Cradle
Mountain region
62
Redeveloped Cradle Mtn Experiences
Overall, the Cradle Mountain redevelopment has very high appeal: ‘very appealing' to ~1/2 and appealing to 85%. The Cable Car was rated
'very appealing' by the most respondents with 55% vs 44% for the Dove Lake Viewing Shelter in 2nd place, though similar overall appeal.
Visitor centre and Alpine Village events least appealing overall but still appeal to over 70%.
Appeal of redeveloped Cradle Mountain experiences (%)
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: How appealing are each of the following newly developed experiences?
-4
-1
-5
-5
-4
-5
-4
-2
-5
-6
-8
-4
-6
-5
-5
-4
-6
-6
36
24
35
36
40
39
49
42
42
49
55
44
36
36
34
34
33
30
Overall redevelopment
Cable Car
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
Pod Shelters along the Dove Lake
Alpine Village Guest Lounge Bar
The Cradle Feast
Visitor Centre Cafe
Reimagined Visitor Centre
Alpine Village Courtyard Events
Very appealing Very unappealing Somewhat appealing Somewhat unappealing
63
Cradle Mtn Experience Appeal
Cable Car stands out as
clear top experience −Most appealing to 57% of
those who intend to visit Dove Lake Viewing Shelter and
Cradle Feast top for nearly 10%
−¼ found none of the options
least appealing The Visitor Centre was voted least
appealing by the most respondents…
…though the Cable Car & guest
lounge received a similar response
26
12
11
11
10
10
9
6
3
None of the above
Reimagined Visitor Centre
Cable Car
Guest Lounge Bar at theAlpine Village
Events at the Alpine Village
The Cradle Feast
Pod Shelters along DoveLake Circuit Walk
Visitor Centre Cafe
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
57
9
9
6
5
5
5
4
0
Cable Car
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
The Cradle Feast
Reimagined Visitor Centre
Pod Shelters along DoveLake Circuit Walk
Guest Lounge Bar at theAlpine Village
Visitor Centre Cafe
Events at the Alpine Village
None of the above
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Least appealing experience of the
CM redevelopment % of those Likely-Certain to visit redeveloped CM
n=172
Most appealing experience of the
CM redevelopment % of those Likely-Certain to visit redeveloped CM
n=172
Questions: Which of the following newly developed experiences do you find the most
appealing? Which of the following newly developed experiences do you find the least
appealing?
64
The Cable Car would be used
by 76%... −…of those intending to visit CM The Dove Lake Viewing Shelter would also be
highly utilised, by 63%
The majority of visitors would engage with the
Visitor Centre Café
Events at the Alpine Village lowest, though still
41%
Elements of the new visitor experience
Experiences would engage in, if visited Cradle Mountain % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172
76
63
59
49
49
48
47
41
2
Cable Car
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
Visitor Centre Café
Pod Shelters along the DoveLake Circuit Walk
The Cradle Feast
Reimagined Visitor Centre
Guest Lounge Bar at the AlpineVillage
Events at the Alpine Village
Other
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following newly developed
experiences would you engage in?
65
Viewing window is the most
#1 Dove Lake element −With 56% finding it most appealing Warm natural shelters are the next most
appealing
−Booking activities & park info most
appealing Visitor Centre elements Most appealing for 44-48% of those who
would use the reimagined Visitor Centre
Elements of the new visitor experience
56
45
39
32
32
26
23
20
19
12
1
Large viewing window overlooking Dove Lake
Heated, low impact pod shelters around Dove Lake
Warm viewing shelter crafted from natural materials
Cafe/kiosk at the Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
Picnic facilities at Dove Lake
Information about the local flora, fauna and history
Low impact space for contemplation
Children's area staffed by trained park rangers
One-on-one park ranger engagement
Dove Lake arrival terminal
None of the above
Most appealing elements of the new Dove Lake experience % that would engage in Dove Lake experiences if they visited Cradle Mountain, n=124
48
44
37
35
2
Booking activities such as horse riding, kayaking, quad biketours, canyoning, cycle hire and guided walks
National Park information
Outdoor equipment, local handicrafts and souvenir space
Regional interpretation
None of the above
Most appealing elements of the reimagined Visitor Centre % that would use the Visitor Centre if they visited Cradle Mountain, n=82
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Experiences would engage in, if visited CM % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172
76
63
59
49
49
48
47
41
Cable Car
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
Visitor Centre Café
Pod Shelters along Dove Lake
The Cradle Feast
Reimagined Visitor Centre
Guest Lounge Bar
Events at the Alpine Village
Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following newly developed
experiences would you engage in? Which of the following elements of the new Dove Lake
mountain experience do you find most appealing? Please select as many as apply.
Questions: Which of the following elements of the reimagined Visitor Centre do you find
most appealing? Please select as many as apply.
66
− Favourable comparisons to NZ, Cairns
►Have experienced similar in N.Z. and it was amazing
►The Skyrail in Cairns was a fantastic ride over the rain
forests and would fit perfectly at Cradle Mountain
− Allows everyone to explore nature
►Would give young & old a chance to see our wilderness
►It's family-oriented and not expensive
− Some believe it is environmentally conscious…
►A nice way to view the wilderness without scarring it
►Without stuffing up the local flora and fauna, I get to see
some magnificent scenery
− …though others are concerned about the impact
on Cradle Mountain's natural beauty
►I do not want a suspension gondola moving overhead
and messing about with the wilderness of the park
►People visit for the isolation and natural beauty. This
would spoil the amazing photos people travel there to take
►It would detract from the natural environment and make
the experience too touristy
►Ugly, obtrusive, invasive
− Fear of heights limits appeal for some
► I hate heights and can't cope with travel on these
Cable Car
− An exciting and unique adventure
►It all looks wonderful, but the skyrail would be very
exciting. The view from it would be incredible.
►Exciting way to see the wilderness area in comfort
►Fantastic idea. Never seen it done in Tassie
►Unique panoramic adventure & sightseeing opportunity
− Affordable way to experience more of the Cradle
Mountain wilderness
►It would be a whole new way of experiencing Tassie's
great Cradle Mountain and surrounds
►Getting a birds eye view but also being able to walk as
well, to be able to see it all
►A perfect way to see this beautiful lake. Fantastic idea!
►A fantastic concept which would be an added bonus for
visitors. Getting a birds eye view for a moderate price.
►It looks like the best value for money. Everything else
looks like it will be overpriced
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please
briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing?
-1 -8 24 55 Appeal
Very appealing Very unappealing Somewhat appealing Somewhat unappealing
67
Pod Shelters along Dove Lake
− Wonderful views and shelter from changeable
weather
►It is a great idea because the weather can be very
changeable and somewhat dangerous at times
►It looks so nice to be in the shelters during winter time, if it
was snowing all around
►They are different, there’s nothing else like it in Tas.
Wonderful views
− Appeals to those who enjoy walking/hiking
►I love going for walks
►These look amazing - these would be even better if you
could stay overnight in one
►They are essential for walkers
− Some concerns about impact on surroundings and
whether they are necessary
►I think it might ruin the natural setting
►It seems a bit complicated and not necessary
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Dove Lake Viewing Shelter
− Modern, well-designed structure from which to view
the lake's natural beauty
►I think it would be wonderful to go there and just
experience the lake in all it's beauty in this way
►It looks so beautiful and you look like you're on the water
►Very modern and lovely, to me it looks as if I would get the
best view there and it's very appealing to the eye
►A beautifully designed structure, fits the Park's character
►Seeing the lake from a purpose designed shelter – great!
− More people would gain access to the environment
►Because it would make a special place more accessible
− Though some believe it detracts from environment
►It feels like it would detract or conflict with the natural-ness
and beauty of the lake with it's sleek, modern design.
►The least amount of man made structures around the
NATIONAL PARK, the better
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please
briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing?
-5 -4 35 44 Appeal -5 -6 36 36 Appeal
Very appealing Very unappealing Somewhat appealing Somewhat unappealing
68
The Cradle Feast
− Gourmet dining featuring Tasmanian produce
►Sounds gourmet - love to indulge in wine and fine dining
►You get to taste the fabulous Tasmanian food,
showcasing produce from the local area
►Lovely Tasmanian food and wine
− A unique offer that would add to the natural
experiences, family friendly too
►It's a most exiting concept that will add to the natural
beauty a great draw card for Tasmania
►Most diverse and interesting offering
►It sounds like a great family experience
− But some more interested in wilderness activities
and peace than sharing a meal
►More interested in activities than eating expensive food
►When I go to the wilderness I go for the peace as much
as the beauty. This does not promise to be peaceful
Guest Lounge Bar
− Relax and unwind after day of walking or in
cold weather
►It's nice to unwind with a cold drink after a long quiet
walk in the wilderness
►It looks comfortable and cool so you can sit back
and relax with a couple of mate and chill
►If it's cold you can stay warm and have a nice meal
►Great place to relax with a drink after a busy day
►To be able to get high quality food and drink would
be great after a day of walking
− Though others prefer outdoor / family activities
►Prefer to be out and about doing things
►Looks great but not as family-focused, not outdoors
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please
briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing?
-4 -5 40 36 Appeal -5 -5 39 34 Appeal
Very appealing Very unappealing Somewhat appealing Somewhat unappealing
69
Reimagined Visitor
Centre
− Somewhere to get information and
begin your experience
►It is the hub of where the true
amazing experience starts and finishes
►Shows you things to do at Cradle Mtn
− Modern aesthetic makes an
impression
►It's cool looking
►It looked amazing
− Though less interesting than other
aspects of the redevelopment
►There is so much to see up there,
most of it is outside the centre
►A little boring compared to the other
changes
Visitor Centre Café
− Inviting place to try produce, drink
coffee and rest
►It would be great to try some fresh
Tasmanian produce at this cafe to
showcase our produce
►Great coffee and a place to rest
►It has a nice atmosphere and a
friendly feel
►It looks very inviting
►Seems like a very good idea for the
region
− Some feel it is 'just a café'
►It's just a cafe and would probably be
expensive
CM Experiences – Qualitative Summary
Questions: Please briefly explain why you found [experience] the most appealing? Please
briefly explain why you found [experience] the least appealing?
Events at Alpine Village
− Entertaining end to day & chance
to interact with other visitors
►Sounds like a nice entertaining way
to finish a beautiful day outdoors
►A chance to interact with other
people from interstate & overseas
►It offers the opportunity to partake in
good times with good fare
− Alternative option for those who
don’t like walking
►I am not into bushwalking or anything
too strenuous
− But natural attractions more
appealing to some
►I am attracted more by the natural
attractions the area offers
-4 -4 49 34 Appeal -2 -6 42 33 Appeal -5 -6 42 30 Appeal
Very appealing Very unappealing Somewhat appealing Somewhat unappealing
70
Recommendation of redevelopment
Very strong intended advocacy for
redeveloped Cradle Mountain − 85% of those intending to visit very likely or
certain to recommend to interstate visitors Only 1% are unlikely to recommend the experience
Recommend to interstate visitors % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172
0
1
12
44
41
2
Not at all likely
Not likely
Likely
Very likely
Certain
Not sure
Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how
likely would you be to recommend this experience to friends or relatives visiting from
interstate?
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
71
Barriers to visiting Cradle Mountain
Not being interested and preferring
other places the major barriers… −…for those not intending to visit the
redeveloped Cradle Mtn experience (27%)
− ‘Prefer other places’ and ‘Been before’ much
lower for redeveloped CM than CM today 'Other' reasons include spoiling the natural beauty with
manmade structures and making CM too 'touristy'
Reasons why unlikely to visit redeveloped Cradle
Mountain region % now Not at all/Not likely to visit in next 2 yrs, n=22*
27
27
23
18
14
9
9
9
5
5
27
I'm just not interested
There are other places I'd prefer to travel to
I would like to go, just not right now
I have been to Cradle Mountain before and Iam not interested in returning
It costs too much to get there
The climate is unappealing
I do not see the value in this holidayexperience
I don't know enough about it
Too far from where I live
It takes too long / too hard to get there
Other
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Which of the following are reasons why are you unlikely to visit the redeveloped
Cradle Mountain region? (choose as many as apply)
*Low sample size. Indicative only.
72
Transport preference & pricing
Cable Car preferred form of
transport for the majority… − 76% intend to use the Cable Car
between the Visitor Centre and Dove
Lake Walking also popular, 42% would complete some of
the journey on foot
…and great value for money − 64% find the Cable Car cheaper than
they expected
Transport would use to travel between the Visitor
Centre & Dove Lake % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172
76
42
15
1
Valley Cable Car
Walk to/from Dove Lake
Cycle to/from Dove Lake
None of the above
Ticket pricing of Cable Car experience % of those Likely-Certain to visit the redeveloped CM, n=172
1
3
33
51
13
Much more than expected
More than expected
What I expected
Cheaper than expected
Much cheaper than I expected
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: If you were to visit Cradle Mountain, which of the following transport options
would you use to travel between the Visitor Centre and Dove Lake? If you would like to catch
the Valley Skyrail to Dove Lake and walk the return trip, please select both options.
Questions: The return trip Valley Skyrail experience will cost $10 for an adult and $30 for a
family. Are these ticket prices more or less than you would have expected?
73
Shift summary: Duration of stay
Length of intended trip greater for
redeveloped CM experience −Average nights increase to 2.7 Compared to 2.4 pre-stimulus
− Initially 2-night trips dominated… …with day trips & 1 night stays also popular
−After redevelopment stimulus… …day trips & 1-2 night trips declined, 3-4 night trips rose
# of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region:
Post 'Today' Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)
11
15
39
20
11
4
Day trip
1
2
3
4
5+
# of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region: Post
'Tomorrow' Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)
10
13
35
25
12
5
Day trip
1
2
3
4
5+
# of nights would spend at Cradle Mtn region:
Pre-Stimulus (% Likely-Certain to visit in next 2 yrs)
14
17
42
14
9
3
Day trip
1
2
3
4
5+
Average # of nights would stay at Cradle Mountain
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus
2.4
2.5
2.7
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region? Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how
many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?
74
Shift summary: Been to CM vs Not
Greater shift in intention for new
visitors − From same base, those who haven't been
are more likely to visit with redevelopment…
−…and intend to stay slightly longer
− Though positive shift also observed with
those who have been before
Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) n=43*
51
56
72
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus
Avg # of nights would stay at CM n=43*
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus
2.6
2.5
2.7
Have visited Cradle Mountain Before Have never been to Cradle Mountain
Likelihood of visiting CM in next 2 years (%) n=165
48
56
61
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus
Avg # of nights would stay at CM n=165
Pre Stimulus
Post 'Today' Stimulus
Post 'Tomorrow' Stimulus
2.3
2.5
2.6
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: How likely are you to visit Cradle Mountain region in Tasmania on a leisure trip
in the next two years? Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain,
how likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years?
Questions: How many nights do you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?
Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how many nights do
you think you would spend in the Cradle Mountain region?
*Low sample size. Indicative only.
Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely Certain Not at all Very Likely Not likely
-14
-12
-7
-5
-3
-4
28
31
34
20
25
27
-14
-12
-7
-2
0
-2
28
37
44
23
19
28
75
New demand profile
New demand = those who
became intenders − After seeing the redevelopment
− New demand predominantly
from young workers and retirees 18-34 and 65+ age groups
− Compared to total intenders… More likely to live with partner or parents
Have a household income under $80k
21
24
7
10
14
24
14
20
17
17
16
15
18-24 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
55-64 years
65+ years
31
31
31
7
0
0
39
25
21
2
9
3
Work full time
Work part time
Retired
Looking for work
Home duties
Other
34
21
14
10
7
7
3
3
28
20
24
5
7
5
7
4
Partner
Alone
Partner & dependents
With parents
Partner & adult children
Other relatives
Flatmates
Other
26
22
26
7
7
4
7
0
0
23
20
11
12
8
5
7
11
2
Less than $40k
$40k-$60k
$60k-$80k
$80k-$100k
$100k-$125k
$125k to $150
$150k to $200k
$200k to $250k
$250k or more
Age (%) Employment situation (%)
Household income (%) Household situation (%)
*NB: New demand = Not intending to visit current CM experience in next 2 years but 'Very
likely' – 'Certain' under redevelopment. Intenders = 'Very likely' – 'Certain' to visit
redeveloped CM.
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
45
55
46
54
Male
Female
Gender (%)
New demand (n=29*) Total Intenders (n=132)
*Low sample size. Indicative only.
76
Assessing incremental demand
Core assumptions for the intrastate incremental demand forecast
− All potential visitors are assumed to be aware of the redeveloped Cradle Mountain
− All purposes of visitor are assumed to convert at the rate measured in the research
►All international demand is assumed to convert at the rate measured for Interstate respondents
− The results reflect visitors who live in Tasmania
− Excluding the impact of the redevelopment, the region and Tasmania are assumed to hold share of
national tourism demand (i.e. the Trend outlook)
− The tested impact is assumed to reflect an opening date of January 2018 and tested demand is
assumed to be fully realised by the YT Dec 2018
− The current mix of day and overnight visitors to the region is applied into the future
►Hence, any conversion of day visitors into overnight visitors would be additional nights over and above the following estimates
− Base expenditure in Cradle Mountain is estimated as follows:
►For overnight visitors to the region, average nightly accommodation expenditure in Tas by Cradle Mt visitors is applied to all
nights spent in Cradle Mountain 93% of average daily ‘other’ expenditure in Tas by Cradle Mt visitors (excluding transport)*
►This same proportion of average spend per day has also been applied to the region for all day trips to Cradle Mountain
►Expenditure per night / day is assumed to grow in line with inflation forecasts
− Incremental expenditure scenarios are then applied:
►Scenario 1: Cable Car only. 76% would engage in Cable Car. At $10 per person = incremental $7.60 per person
►Scenario 2: Cable Car + additional F&B. 81% would engage with at least one of the visitors café, lounge bar, village events or
Cradle Feast. At an assumed additional expenditure of $10 per person = incremental $8.10 per person (+$7.60 for Cable Car)
*87% of overnight visitors to Cradle Mt have a single stopover on their trip. These visitors are assumed to spend 100%
of their daily ‘other’ expenditure in Cradle Mt. The remaining 13% are assumed to spend 50% of their daily ‘other’
expenditure in Cradle Mt. Hence, overall 93% of daily ‘other’ expenditure is spent in Cradle Mt
77
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Dec 0
8
Dec 0
9
Dec 1
0
Dec 1
1
Dec 1
2
Dec 1
3
Dec 1
4
Dec 1
5
Dec 1
6
Dec 1
7
Dec 1
8
Dec 1
9
Dec 2
0
Incremental visitor
demand is evident −Redevelopment estimated to
bring in 18k additional trips..
− ..in addition to demand
provided by market growth
− 14% additional demand
Visitors to Cradle Mountain
Total visitors to Cradle Mountain Intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip (000’s) - 24MMA
Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / NVS
Trend outlook
Projected demand
with redevelopment
2018 projections Trend outlook Projected with
redevelopment Incremental demand
Total visitors 129.4k 147.3k 17.8k
Overnight visitors 39.1k 44.5k 5.4k
Day visitors 90.3k 102.8k 12.5k
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS.
78
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Dec 0
8
Dec 0
9
Dec 1
0
Dec 1
1
Dec 1
2
Dec 1
3
Dec 1
4
Dec 1
5
Dec 1
6
Dec 1
7
Dec 1
8
Dec 1
9
Dec 2
0
23k more nights in CM
from redevelopment − 20% more nights than would
otherwise be achieved
−Via more visitors and
increased length of stay Resulting from the redevelopment
Nights at Cradle Mountain
Total nights at Cradle Mountain Intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip (000’s) - 24MMA
Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / NVS
Trend outlook
Projected demand
with redevelopment
2018 projections Trend outlook Projected with
redevelopment Incremental demand
Total nights 112.6k 135.5k 22.9k
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS.
79
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dec 0
8
Dec 0
9
Dec 1
0
Dec 1
1
Dec 1
2
Dec 1
3
Dec 1
4
Dec 1
5
Dec 1
6
Dec 1
7
Dec 1
8
Dec 1
9
Dec 2
0
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Scenario 1: −Additional spend from
incremental visits & nights..
− ..plus Cable Car expenditure
− Lift in regional expenditure An additional $5.6m estimated in
2018 resulting from the
redevelopment
Most from overnight visitors
Scenario 2: −Additional spend from
incremental visits & nights..
− ..plus Cable Car expenditure
& additional F&B spend
−Greater lift in regional spend An additional $7.5m estimated in
2018 resulting from the
redevelopment
Expenditure at Cradle Mountain
Total expenditure at Cradle Mountain Intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip ($millions) - 24MMA
Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / NVS
Trend outlook
Scenario 1: Projected $
with redevelopment + Cable
Car expenditure
2018 projections Trend
outlook
Projected with
redevelopment
(scenario 1)
Incremental
demand
(scenario 1)
Projected with
redevelopment
(scenario 2)
Incremental
demand
(scenario 2)
Total expenditure $19.9m $25.4m $5.6m $27.4m $7.5m
Spend by
overnight visitors $15.7m $19.9m $4.2m $21m $5.3m
Spend by day
visitors $4.2m $5.5m $1.4m $6.4m $2.2m
Scenario 2: Projected $ with
redevelopment + Cable Car
and F&B expenditure
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS.
80
Redevelopment
provides an additional: − 18k visitors and 23k nights to
the Cradle Mountain region
−Scenario 1 = $5.6m in
incremental expenditure
−Scenario 2 = $7.5m in
incremental expenditure
Incremental demand summary
Additional
Trips to CM
Additional
Nights in CM
Additional
expenditure in
CM
(scenario 1)
Additional
expenditure in
CM
(scenario 2)
Total visitors 17.8k 22.9k $5.6m $7.5m
Overnight
visitors 5.4k 22.9k $4.2m $5.3m
Day visitors 12.5k n/a $1.4m $2.2m
Forecast incremental demand resulting from Cradle
Mountain Redevelopment (at YT Dec 2018)
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS.
81
Cable Car vs Shuttle Bus
Strong preference for Cable
Car over shuttle bus −¾ prefer the Cable Car… …and over 50% find the redeveloped Cradle
Mtn less appealing without it
A further 42% would be less likely to visit if
they had to use the shuttle bus instead
Cable Car vs Shuttle Bus: Option preferred as
part of the CM redevelopment (%)
75
12
13
Cable Car
Shuttle bus
Neither / not sure
Impact on likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain redeveloped if Shuttle
Bus replaced the Cable Car (%)
18
24
40
7
5
6
Much less likely to go if shuttle bus replaced cable car
Less likely to go if shuttle bus replaced cable car
Neither more or less likely
More likely to go if shuttle bus replaced cable car
Much more likely to go if shuttle bus replaced cable car
Not sure
Impact on view of the Cradle Mountain redevelopment if Shuttle Bus
replaced the Cable Car (%)
27
25
28
9
8
4
Much less appealing if shuttle bus replaced cable car
Less appealing if shuttle bus replaced cable car
Neither more or less appealing
More appealing if shuttle bus replaced cable car
Much more appealing if shuttle bus replaced cable car
Not sure
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: Which of these options would you prefer? If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with
a shuttle bus service, how would this change your view of the redeveloped CM region?
Questions: If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with a shuttle bus service, would you be more
or less likely to visit the redeveloped Cradle Mountain region?
Information: There is the potential for the Valley Skyrail not to be part of
the Cradle Mountain redevelopment. The Valley Skyrail could instead be
replaced with the existing shuttle bus service. The shuttle bus would
operate as it does today, travelling between the Visitor Centre and a
parking area and basic shelter near Dove Lake. The price of the shuttle
service would be the same as the Valley Skyrail ($10 adult return, $30
return for a family) and would operate when weather permits, whereas
the Valley Skyrail would operate year round in all weather conditions.
82
Intention if Cable Car was replaced
New demand driven
predominantly by Cable Car −Replacing the Cable Car with a
shuttle bus...
−…risks 83% of incremental
demand
−With only 17% now 'very likely' or
'certain' to visit 34% shift back to ‘likely’, 49% do not intend
or are unsure
Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain redeveloped in the
next 2 years, for those unlikely to visit CM today % of New Demand, n=29*
0
0
0
79
21
0
Not at all likely
Not likely
Likely
Very likely
Certain
Not sure
Likelihood of visiting Cradle Mountain redeveloped in the
next 2 years if Shuttle Bus replaced the Cable Car % of New Demand, n=29*
14
21
34
10
7
14
Not at all likely
Not likely
Likely
Very likely
Certain
Not sure
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: If the Valley Skyrail was replaced with a shuttle bus service, how likely would
you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years? Questions: Given the redevelopment of the visitor experience at Cradle Mountain, how
likely would you be to visit Cradle Mountain in the next two years?
*Low sample size. Indicative only.
New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit
the current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became
‘very likely’ – ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain
concept stimulus.
83
− Low environmental impact
►Buses get stuck in snow, leave toxic fumes
►Less environmental impact
− Very affordable
►Skyrail is something different, at $10 I would do it for sure
►I have seen it all at foot & bus level. The sky rail is new,
trendy and when costs are taken in would cost similar
Prefer shuttle bus − Less impact on the landscape & environment
►The Shuttle bus already operates and is very popular. The
skyrail would have a massive impact on the environment
and is a permanent fixture, whereas the shuttle buses can
leave when not in use or if no longer profitable, unlike
massive towers etc that would be required to build a skyrail
►Fits with the wilderness image, it's not as intrusive
►It won't spoil the landscape
►I may use the skyrail if it's built but would prefer it was left
pristine, as is
− Fear of heights motivates some to choose shuttle
►I'm not at all keen on heights so wouldn't go on a sky rail
Prefer Cable Car − Cable Car is unique & exciting versus a bus ride
►A bus is a bus whereas a skyrail is a unique experience
►Everyone has been on a bus. Nothing exciting. Skyrail,
can't wait!
►Bring on the magical Skyrail. Such a wonderful idea.
►Much more comfortable and fun way of travelling
− Novel perspective and opens up new areas
►Offers a unique perspective on the region, whereas the
bus is more-or-less the same as walking, just faster
►You go over the lake, its very scenic and much cooler
►Aerial views are better as you can see more
►It would enable access to areas not available by bus
− The highlight of the redevelopment plans
►Skyrail sounds like the best part of the redevelopment
and one of the main reasons I would want to visit again
►It is one of the highlights and would be great for the kids
− All weather, all year round and safer too
►Wouldn't result in me being disappointed should the
weather turn bad and result in cancellation of the bus
►Exceptional experience year round and safer in winter
Cable Car vs Shuttle bus – Qualitative
summary Unique & exciting, the all-weather Cable Car is the highlight
Questions: Please briefly explain why you would prefer the Skyrail/Shuttle bus. Please
briefly explain why you would be more likely/less likely to go if shuttle bus replaced Valley
Skyrail.
84
Cable Car vital to appeal
of CM redevelopment − 86% of intenders rate
importance 7 or above Mean score is 8.2
37% consider it 9-10
−Similar importance with New
Demand Very few consider the Cable Car
unimportant to the redevelopment
Cable Car: Importance to redevelopment Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
Questions: How important is the Valley Skyrail to the overall appeal of the redeveloped
Cradle Mountain experience?
*Low sample size. Indicative only.
Importance of Cable Car to appeal of
redeveloped Cradle Mountain % of respondents very likely-certain to visit in the next 2 years, n=132, % of New Demand, n=29*
AVERAGE 8.1/10 AVERAGE 8.1/10
3
3
8
39
47
1-2
3-4
5-6
7-8
9-10
0
3
17
34
45
1-2
3-4
5-6
7-8
9-10
New demand* Total intenders
10 = Very
important
1 = Very
unimportant
85
Additional 17.8k intrastate trips are forecast as a result of the development −Of those, 5.4k are overnight trips and 12.5k are daytrips
− For 24% of the New Demand, the Cradle trip would replace an inter/OS trip
Hence there are 4.3k incremental trips for Tasmania
Incremental demand for Tasmania
Visitors to Cradle Mountain Intrastate overnight and day visitors (000’s) - 24MMA
Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / NVS
17.8k incremental
visitors to Cradle Mt (12.5k day & 5.4 overnight)
Replacement of overseas or interstate trip % of New Demand, n=29*
Derived by BDA from Cradle Mountain Development Survey
3
21
76
Replace a planned overseastrip
Replace a planned interstatetrip
Not replace either a plannedoverseas or interstate trip
4.3k incremental
visitors for
Tasmania
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Dec 0
8
Dec 0
9
Dec 1
0
Dec 1
1
Dec 1
2
Dec 1
3
Dec 1
4
Dec 1
5
Dec 1
6
Dec 1
7
Dec 1
8
Dec 1
9
Dec 2
0
Questions: Would this trip to Cradle Mountain in the next two years...
New demand = New Demand respondents were not intending to visit the
current Cradle Mountain experience in next 2 years but became ‘very likely’
– ‘certain’ after seeing the redeveloped Cradle Mountain concept stimulus.
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS. Incremental intrastate
visitors, all of whom would be replacing a planned interstate or overseas trip, are assumed to be
overnight visitors to Cradle Mountain.
86
March the most popular month for 16% of those intending to visit Cradle Mt − June, August, February & April also popular months, each with over 10% preference End of the year is least preferred
−Demonstrates some potential increase in demand for shoulder seasons and winter
Seasonal demand
5 10
16 10
8 14
8 11
6 5 6
2
JanuaryFebruary
MarchAprilMay
JuneJuly
AugustSeptember
OctoberNovemberDecember
Question: What month do you think you would most likely visit Cradle Mountain?
18 4
11 13
12 8
13 8
1 5 4
3
JanuaryFebruary
MarchAprilMayJuneJuly
AugustSeptember
OctoberNovemberDecember
17 33
32 17
Summer (Dec-Feb)
Autumn (Mar-May)
Winter (Jun-Aug)
Spring (Sep-Nov)
25 36
29 10
Summer (Dec-Feb)
Autumn (Mar-May)
Winter (Jun-Aug)
Spring (Sep-Nov)
Monthly demand Monthly demand
Seasonal demand Seasonal demand
Preferred month of travel to redeveloped CM: Total intenders % very likely-certain to visit in next 2 years, n=132
Derived by BDA from CM Development Survey
Current seasonal demand for CM % of intrastate holiday overnight & daytrips to CM –
3YT September ‘15 (n=236) Derived by BDA from NVS
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS
87
Accommodation requirements
Indicative implications for accommodation requirements resulting
from intrastate demand
−While specific supply requirements were not in the scope of this study, indicative
implications of 23k additional visitor nights can be assessed
−At 1.8 visitors per room 23k visitor nights provides 13k room nights per year or
~35 per day
−To meet this demand an additional 46 rooms would be required (at 75%
occupancy)
►Assuming: no impact on current accommodation and that all additional nights require roomed
accommodation
88
Key point summary (1)
Intrastate travel has grown nationally and in Tasmania
− Cradle Mountain demand is also growing, although holiday demand is lagging behind the
strong demand trends for Tasmania
Cradle Mountain today has strong appeal and intention
− Even with reasonably high awareness and past visitation
− Considered a unique and highly appealing destination ►Core wilderness and positive past experience driving the strong appeal
A strong positive response to the redevelopment concept
−Most respondents are more likely to visit as a result or the redevelopment and there was an
increase in intention from Cradle Mountain today ►An increased intended length of stay was also evident
− The redevelopment was generally perceived to add unique, highly appealing experiences and
greater comfort to the destination, while providing benefits to Tasmania
− The Cable Car was the stand out element of the concept particularly in terms of driving new
demand to the region
− Dove Lake developments also appealed strongly ►The visitor centre, lounge and café and events where also positively received
89
Key point summary (2)
The redevelopment would likely drive strong advocacy from locals
−85% of those interested are very likely or certain to recommend to interstate visitors
The redevelopment is projected to provide incremental intrastate
demand for the region
−The redevelopment tested is estimated to provide 18k visitors, 24k nights and up to
$7.5m in incremental demand over and above the trend outlook
►This represents a 20% increase in nights and 38% increase in expenditure in the region
►~4k of the incremental visitors were replacing an interstate or overseas trip
Several potential sources of additional demand also exist
− Incremental demand has been applied equally to current levels of day and overnight
visitation
►But any conversion of current day visitors into overnight visitors would provide additional nights and
expenditure into the region
−Additional demand potential was also evident for Cradle Mountain today
►If the redevelopment was to make more Tasmanians aware of the existing experiences then more
demand could be achieved
90
Execution imperatives – Inter & Intra
Incremental demand requires new, highly appealing and world class
experiences
The Cable Car is the core element of the Cradle Mountain concept and is
central to incremental demand
− Up to 85% of interstate/inbound incremental demand is at risk if the Cable Car is not part of the
redevelopment
− Similarly, up to 83% of intrastate incremental demand is at risk if the Cable Car is passed over
− The delivery of the experience must also live up to the expectation of potential visitors
Other elements must support this experience by delivering on key factors:
− Enabling visitors to engage more enjoyably with a highly appealing natural environment
− Providing comfort and accessibility for all to widen the potential audience
− Delivering a rewarding experience with minimal impact on the pristine environment
Awareness of experiences is also required to deliver incremental demand
− Those interested in the region need to know of the experiences and their core consumer benefits
− Positive word of mouth via experience delivery is vital, content & digital asset development is key
91
Appendix
Cradle Mountain performance
Accommodation requirement summary
Combined demand forecast
Incremental demand summary
92
Cradle Mtn share of Tas demand
Cradle Mt share of trips
down over past 5 yrs −CM % of interstate trips
down to 25% From 30% pre-2012
Some improvement over the past 2
years though
− Inbound share trend similar Down by 10%, from 48% to 38%
over five years, though now lifting
− Intrastate share weaker Steady losses over the past 3 years
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS.
Trips to Cradle Mountain include day trips and overnight visitors
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
Cradle Mt % of Tas interstate trips Share of interstate holiday trips to Tas
(%) – 12MMT Derived by BDA from NVS
202530354045505560
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
Cradle Mt % of Tas inbound trips Share of inbound holiday trips to Tas
(%) – 12MMT Derived by BDA from NVS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sep 0
8
Sep 0
9
Sep 1
0
Sep 1
1
Sep 1
2
Sep 1
3
Sep 1
4
Sep 1
5
38%
3%
25%
Cradle Mountain % of Tas Intrastate Share of intrastate holiday trips, day & overnight
trips (%) – 24MMA Derived by BDA from TVS
93
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Dec 0
8
Dec 0
9
Dec 1
0
Dec 1
1
Dec 1
2
Dec 1
3
Dec 1
4
Dec 1
5
Dec 1
6
Dec 1
7
Dec 1
8
Dec 1
9
Dec 2
0
Incremental visitor
demand −Redevelopment estimated to
bring in 59k additional trips..
− ..in addition to demand
provided by market growth
− 18% additional demand
Visitors to Cradle Mountain
Total visitors to Cradle Mountain Interstate, international and intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip
(000’s) – Annual volume Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / TVS / NVS
Trend outlook
Projected demand
with redevelopment
2018 projections Trend outlook Projected with
redevelopment Incremental demand
Total visitors 333.1k 391.6k 58.6k
Overnight visitors 175.2k 207.8k 32.6k
Day visitors 157.9k 183.8k 26k
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS.
94
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Dec 0
8
Dec 0
9
Dec 1
0
Dec 1
1
Dec 1
2
Dec 1
3
Dec 1
4
Dec 1
5
Dec 1
6
Dec 1
7
Dec 1
8
Dec 1
9
Dec 2
0
102k additional nights
in Cradle Mountain − 26% more nights than would
otherwise be achieved
−Resulting from more visitors
and increased length of stay
Nights at Cradle Mountain
Total nights at Cradle Mountain Interstate, international and intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip
(000’s) – Annual volume Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / TVS / NVS
Trend outlook
Projected demand
with redevelopment
2018 projections Trend outlook Projected with
redevelopment Incremental demand
Total nights 388.6k 490.7k 102.1k
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS.
95
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec 0
8
Dec 0
9
Dec 1
0
Dec 1
1
Dec 1
2
Dec 1
3
Dec 1
4
Dec 1
5
Dec 1
6
Dec 1
7
Dec 1
8
Dec 1
9
Dec 2
0
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Scenario 1: −Additional spend from
incremental visits & nights..
− ..plus Cable Car expenditure
− Lift in regional expenditure An additional $23.6m estimated in
2018 resulting from the
redevelopment
Most from overnight visitors
Scenario 2: −Additional spend from
incremental visits & nights..
− ..plus Cable Car expenditure
& additional F&B spend
−Greater lift in regional spend An additional $29.2m estimated in
2018 resulting from the
redevelopment
Expenditure at Cradle Mountain
Total expenditure at Cradle Mountain Interstate, international and intrastate (overnight and day visitors) – All purposes of trip
($millions) – Annual volume Derived by BDA from BDA AUSMO / TVS / NVS
Trend outlook
Scenario 1: Projected $
with redevelopment +
Cable Car expenditure
2018 projections Trend
outlook
Projected with
redevelopment
(scenario 1)
Incremental
demand
(scenario 1)
Projected with
redevelopment
(scenario 2)
Incremental
demand
(scenario 2)
Total expenditure $70.8m $94.3m $23.6m $100.0m $29.2m
Spend by
overnight visitors $63.1m $84.2m $20.8m $88.4m $25.0m
Spend by day
visitors $7.4m $10.0m $2.7m $11.6m $4.2m
Scenario 2: Projected $ with
redevelopment + Cable Car
and F&B expenditure
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS.
96
Redevelopment
provides an additional: − 59k visitors and 102k nights
to the Cradle Mtn region
−Scenario 1 = $23.6m in
incremental expenditure
−Scenario 2 = $29.2m in
incremental expenditure
Incremental demand summary
Additional
Trips to CM
Additional
Nights in CM
Additional
expenditure in
CM (scenario 1)
Additional
expenditure in
CM (scenario 2)
Total
visitors 58.6k 102.1k $23.6m $29.2m
Overnight
intrastate visitors 5.4k 22.9k $4.2m $5.3m
Day
intrastate visitors 12.5k n/a $1.4m $2.2m
Overnight
interstate &
inbound visitors 27.2k 79.2k $16.6m $19.7m
Day
Interstate &
inbound visitors 13.5k n/a $1.3m $2.0m
Forecast incremental demand resulting from Cradle
Mountain Redevelopment (at YT Dec 2018)
Note: Cradle Mountain region defined as Sheffield-Railton in the NVS.
97
Accommodation requirement summary
Indicative implications for accommodation requirements
−While specific supply requirements were not in the scope of this study, indicative implications
of 79k additional interstate/international and 23k intrastate visitor nights can be assessed
Accommodation requirements for interstate and international
− At 1.8 visitors per room 79k visitor nights provides 44k room nights per year or ~120 per day
− To meet this demand an additional 160 rooms would be required (at 75% occupancy)
►Assuming: no impact on current accommodation and that all additional nights require roomed
accommodation
Accommodation requirements for intrastate
− At 1.8 visitors per room 23k visitor nights provides 13k room nights per year or ~35 per day
− To meet this demand an additional 46 rooms would be required (at 75% occupancy)
►Assuming: no impact on current accommodation and that all additional nights require roomed
accommodation
As a result of the Cradle Mountain redevelopment, a total estimate of
206 rooms would be required to meet the additional demand
98
Estimated impact of Tas incremental demand
6.6k incremental interstate & international visitors
to Tasmania
Expenditure:
Applying average spend per person of $3,200 in Tasmania by current Cradle
Mountain visitors, an additional $21 million is estimated to result from
incremental visitors to Tasmania.
Nights spent in Tasmania:
Applying average length of stay of 13 nights in Tasmania by current Cradle
Mountain visitors, an additional 84k nights are estimated to result from
incremental visitors to Tasmania.
Other regional visits:
Applying average number of destinations visited of 4.2 other regions visited by
current Cradle Mountain visitors, other regions in Tasmania are estimated to
gain an additional 28k visits resulting from the incremental visitors to
Tasmania.
Incremental demand for Tasmania
Note: Current interstate & inbound behaviour by Cradle Mountain visitors is derived from
overnight visitors as measured in the TVS. Current intrastate behaviour by Cradle Mountain
visitors is derived from overnight visitors as measured in the NVS
4.3k incremental intrastate visitors for Tasmania
Expenditure:
Applying average spend per person of $420 in Tasmania by current Cradle
Mountain visitors, an additional $2 million is estimated to result from
incremental visitors for Tasmania.
Nights spent in Tasmania:
Applying average length of stay of 3.2 nights in Tasmania by current Cradle
Mountain visitors, an additional 14k nights are estimated to result from
incremental visitors for Tasmania.
Other regional visits:
Applying average number of destinations visited of 0.2 other regions visited by
current Cradle Mountain visitors, other regions in Tasmania are estimated to
gain an additional 1k visits resulting from the incremental visitors for
Tasmania.
99
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