Creating a Data-Based 2016 NBA Mock Draft

Lucas Mentch & Ben Risk SAMSI Interdisciplinary UG Workshop May 23, 2016

OverviewNBA Consists of 30 teams; 15 in the Western Conference, 15 in the Eastern Conference

Each year, the top 8 teams from each conference make the playoffs

The bottom 7 from each conference (14 total) get the first 14 picks in next years draft

However, order among those 14 is determined at random

Draft OrderDo determine draft order among the bottom 14 teams, 14 ping pong balls numbered 1 - 14 are placed into lottery machine

4 balls selected one at a time to determine a “four digit” combination, but without regard to order

1 thrown out; each team assigned a number of remaining combinations based on record

✓14

2

◆ = 1001 total combinations

Draft OrderTeam matching the first combination drawn gets the first pick

Same for the second and third picks

After first three picks are established, remaining order goes in order of regular season record

Team with worst record can pick no less than 4th

Team with 2nd worst record can pick no less than 5th

Team with 3rd worst record can pick no less than 6th

Draft Order

Source: http://www.nba.com/news/draft/nba-draft-lottery-what-will-happen-2016/

2016 Draft Order

This year the draft lottery was held on May 17, 2016

For the first time, the order followed the record exactly (teams with worst record picked first; those with best picked last)

Nobody thought much of this but it raises a lot of potentially interesting questions:

Potential QuestionsJust how likely/unlikely is it for the draft order to go in exact (reverse) order of record?

How likely would it be if all (14) teams were given an equal shot? All 30 teams?

Gets into questions about the cost/benefit of tanking?

How much does a team stand to lose by tanking vs gain by getting a high pick?

Primary Question(s)Assuming each player p has some value v(p), can we assign a ‘proper’ order in which players should be drafted? (i.e. create a mock draft of sorts)

Does player value stay constant across teams or are there certain rosters that benefit significantly more from drafting one position or another?

Really a thresholding question: certainly if a prospect’s estimated value is extremely high, it is probably worth drafting that player anyway but how high does it need to be?

ConsiderationsHow should we estimate v(p)?

Popular measures usually involve a plus/minus (+/-, pm) value (point differential while on floor)

Variations on this such as ESPN’s Real Plus Minus

Tries to take into account (and remove) team effects

Can also come up with other measures based on statistics relative to other players/positions

ConsiderationsWhat factors (most) influence v(p)?

Previous experience: college statistics & accomplishments; international competition

Physical Measurables: height, weight, speed

“Advanced Metrics”: catch-and-shoot, pull-up shooting, post-touches

Potential: age, development rate

Data Sources

stats.nba.com / espn.com: basic box-score style statistics and historical data, some advanced statistics

draftexpress.com: more in depth statistics, advanced statistics, physical measurables

basketball-reference.com: more detailed statistics and more easily accessible historical data

Wrap-upMany potentially different questions that can be investigated:

Rarity of correct draft order and cost/benefit analysis of tanking

Determining whether current roster / team impacts draft value and player development

Determining role of previous production, measurables, potential on “true value” vs perceived value

Use this to create 2016 mock draft

Compare with current and/or historical mock drafts