Creating a Shared Vision Model

Creating a Shared Vision Model

Macintosh II

What is a Shared Vision Model?What is a Shared Vision Model?

A “Shared Vision” model is a

collective view of a water resources

system developed by managers and

stakeholders. It is used to facilitate plan

development, implementation and

maintenance.

Wait a second!

Why discuss Shared Vision Models now?

Are Shared Vision Models part of the seven steps?

Shared Vision Models can enhance each stage of the planning process

Shared Vision Models Can Shared Vision Models Can

Establish the status quo

Highlight important problems

Communicate constraints

Focus planning objectives

Identify promising strategies

Fine-tune targets

Assess the impacts of a plan

Shared Vision Models Can Shared Vision Models Can

Shared Vision Models Can Shared Vision Models Can

Facilitate plan implementation

Perform environmental assessments

Brief decision makers

Inform the public

Shared Vision Models Can Shared Vision Models Can

Conduct Virtual Drought Exercises

Review strategic plans

Maintain plan effectiveness

Models In Water Resources Planning

Models In Water Resources Planning

One of the earliest non-military applications of computers was to water resources

Harvard Water Program foresaw the major impacts of computers

Simulation and optimization models have been used to provide operational guidance, forecast future conditions, and facilitate planning for many years

Traditional ModelsTraditional Models

Traditional water resources models

Developed and used by analysts

Developed for the use of a single agency

Created with little outside input

Written in FORTRAN

Run on mainframe computers

Limitations of Traditional Models as Planning Tools

Limitations of Traditional Models as Planning Tools

Common model limitations as planning tools

Require extensive time to create

Require extensive training

Require extensive data that may be difficult to obtain

Common Model Limitations as Planning Tools

Common Model Limitations as Planning Tools

Are viewed as black boxes by non-developers

Can not be customized to facilitate planning decisions

Can not be run interactively and lack transportability

Represent a single vision

Object Oriented: Flexible - Interactive - Transparent

Run on Multiple Platforms: Transportable

Jointly Developed and Used: Neutral - Accessible

And as a result Shared Vision models are: Useful - Trusted - Endorsed

Characteristics of Today's Shared Vision Models

Characteristics of Today's Shared Vision Models

Traditional Environments Object Oriented Environments

Model Development

InterfaceProcedural Code Graphical

Model Development

Training Required

High Moderate

Programming Effort High Low/Moderate

Modification Effort High Very Low

Mode of Use Batch Interactive

User Interface Input File Graphical

Training to Use High Low

Ease of Understanding Low High

Comparison of Traditional and Object-Oriented Simulation Environments

Comparison of Traditional and Object-Oriented Simulation Environments

Perceived Advantages of Shared Vision Models

Perceived Advantages of Shared Vision Models

Shared Vision Models

Improve analysis

Are more flexible

Communicate more effectively

Cost less to develop than traditional approaches

Modeling PhilosophyModeling Philosophy

Shared Vision Models should Be developed with wide support Improve communication among

managers and stakeholders Disseminate information equally Improve planning and management

of water resources Serve as a basis for effective negotiation

Gain Stakeholder Endorsement

Structure Model Development

Process

Overview of Model Development Process

Overview of Model Development Process

Define Modeling Objectives

Conceptualize System

Construct Model

Test and Validate Model

Establish Ongoing Role For Model

Enhance/Modify Model

Desired Characteristics of Model Developer(s)

Desired Characteristics of Model Developer(s)

Collectively the model development team should possess

Respect and trust of stakeholders

Strong communication skills

Previous modeling experience

Strong technical skills

A broad-based understanding of the system

Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model Development

Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model Development

Advisory

Participate in interviews

Share knowledge of the system

Shape modeling objectives

Critique prototypes

Active Assessments

Independently test and use model

Participate in virtual drought exercises

Hands-On

Participate in model construction

Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model Development

Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model Development

Steps in Creating Shared Vision Models

Steps in Creating Shared Vision Models

Step 1. Define modeling objectives

Step 2. Structure the model development process

Step 3. Conceptualize the system

Step 4. Construct model

Step 5. Evaluate and test the model

Step 6. Confirm stakeholder endorsement

Step 7. Enhance/modify model

Step 8. Establish guidance for ongoing model use

Step 1. Define Modeling Objectives

Step 1. Define Modeling Objectives

Modeling objectives define what should be accomplished by the modeling effort.

To define modeling objectives we must ask Who will use the model? How will it be used?

As well as Who will be impacted by the model? What are the planning objectives?

Step 2. Structure the Model Development Process

Step 2. Structure the Model Development Process

Involve managers and stakeholders

Identify constraints and potential obstacles

Identify tasks and establish a time line

Identify resource requirements

Assign roles and responsibilities

Step 3. Conceptualize the SystemStep 3. Conceptualize the System

Interview managers and stakeholders and review previous studies

Delineate required components

Determine what is not required

Define appropriate level of system detail

Identify an appropriate time step

Identify performance measures that will be modeled

Step 4. Construct ModelStep 4. Construct Model

Steps in Model Construction:

Identify Module Functions

Layout System Components

Indicate Which Components are

RelatedSpecify Functional Relationships

Gather Necessary Data

Incorporate Data Into the Model

Document Model Diagram and Equations

Create Tables and Graphs

Create User Interface

Typical Components of a Shared Vision Model

Typical Components of a Shared Vision Model

Planning objectives Hydrology

Reservoirs Ground water supplies

Demands Forecasts

Operating policies Constraints

Triggers Water rights priorities

Regulations & policies Performance measures

Robust documentation Modeling assumptions

Step 5. Evaluate and Test the ModelStep 5.

Evaluate and Test the Model

Developers must

Verify the model

Validate the model

Identify areas of uncertainty and sensitivity

Model VerificationModel Verification

Stakeholders, managers, and analysts must verify that

The model contains all critical components

Components are correctly related

System behavior

Model ValidationModel Validation

With the verified model, we must ensure that the model can mimic past system behavior:

Average conditions

Extreme conditions

Appropriate metrics must be used to compare model output with historical data.

Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity Analysis

During sensitivity analysis we determine

How changes in variables or assumptions impact system performance

Which input variables are most uncertain

This provides an understanding of

Which input variables most influence system performance

Where more reliable information is needed

Step 6. Confirm Stakeholder Endorsement

Step 6. Confirm Stakeholder Endorsement

To obtain model endorsement, model developers must Ensure that model content is understood Convey assumptions Demonstrate model validity Illustrate model’s value in planning and decision

making Address concerns that are raised

Step 7. Enhance/Modify ModelStep 7. Enhance/Modify Model

Before making model enhancements

Identify requested changes

Identify why the change is needed

Prioritize requested modifications

Consider available resources

Document changes (who, why, when, how)

Step 8. Establish Guidance for Ongoing Model Use

Step 8. Establish Guidance for Ongoing Model Use

To ensure continued model usefulness managers and stakeholders must

Identify a caretaker for the model

Identify how the model will be maintained

Create training opportunities

Develop ground rules for model distribution and use

SummarySummary

A “Shared Vision” model represents the collective view of water resource managers and stakeholders. It facilitates plan development, implementation and maintenance.

Shared Vision models have several desirable characteristics that enhance their usefulness as planning tools.

Model development teams must be carefully chosen.

Stakeholder input is essential to shared vision model development.

Guidelines for long-term model use, distribution, and maintenance should be established.

ExerciseExercise