Crime Statistics User Event

Sandra CampbellJustice Analytical Services

6 October 2014

Overview

• Two sources of crime statistics

• Key strengths and limitations

• Users and uses

• What do the statistics tell us?

• Police reform

• Statistics from 2013-14 onwards

• Next steps

Crime Statistics in Scotland

Two complementary sources:

1. Police Recorded Crime

2. Scottish Crime and Justice Survey

Police Recorded Crime

Key strengths:

•Frequency – annual data

•Geography – local authority level

•Time series – historical time series

Police Recorded Crime

Limitations:

•Not all crimes are reported to the police – what are the barriers?

•No information on characteristics of victims and perpetrators e.g. age and gender or on circumstances of the crime e.g. locus of the crime

Users and Uses

Scottish Government:

•Justice Strategy

•Policy development

Also:

•Local authorities, Community Partnerships, Academia, Scottish Parliament, ISD Scotland, Charities and Support groups …… and many more

Justice Strategy

Policy context

Priority - to reduce crime, particularly violent crime•Reducing violence•No Knives, Better LivesThe No Knives Better Lives campaign informsyoung people about the dangers of carrying knives.

•Scottish Index of Multiple DeprivationPolice recorded crime data used inthe creation of the crime domain

Police Recorded Crime

Background:

•Scottish Crime Recording Standard

•Around 470 crime codes

•Seven crime groups

•Crimes and offences

•Independently audited by HMICS

Police Recorded Crime

• What do we know?

• What are the longer term trends?

• What are the most recent changes?

Number of crimes recorded by the police

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12

Nu

mb

er o

f cr

imes

rec

ord

ed

Financial year

Introduction of SCRS

1 April 2004

Crimes broken down by group

3%

3%

50%

22%

23%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Non-sexual crimes of violence

Sexual offences

Crimes of dishonesty

Fire-raising, vandalism etc.

Other crimes

Percentage of crimes recorded, 2012-13

Summary of crime and offence changes

Motor vehicle offences, 3%

Miscellaneous offences,

-3%

Other crimes, -8%

Fire-raising, vandalism etc,

-21%

Crimes of dishonesty,

-12%

Sexual offences,

5%

Non-sexual crimes of violence,

-21%

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%Percentage change 2011-12 to 2012-13

Change in crimes recorded by police force

-14

-11

-15

-12

-13

-16

-14

-6

-18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

Central

Dumfries & Galloway

Fife

Grampian

Lothian & Borders

Northern

Strathclyde

Tayside

Percentage change in recorded crime, 2011-12 to 2012-13

Group 1 - Non-sexual crimes of violence

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Nu

mb

er

Financial Year

Homicide Attempted murder & serious assault Robbery Other

Group 2 - Sexual offences

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Nu

mb

er

Financial year

Rape & attempted rape Sexual assault Offences associated with prostitution Other

Group 3 - Number of crimes of dishonesty

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Nu

mb

er

Financial year

Housebreaking Theft by opening a lockfast place (OLP) Theft from a motor vehicle by OLP Theft of a motor vehicle Shoplifting Other theft Fraud Other

Group 4 – Crimes of Fire-raising and vandalism etc.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Nu

mb

er

Financial year

Fire-raising Vandalism etc.

Group 5 - Other crimes

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Nu

mb

er

Financial year

Crimes against public justice Handling an offensive weapon Drugs Other

Groups 6 and 7 - Offences

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Nu

mb

er

Financial year

Miscellaneous offences Motor vehicle offences

Group 6 – Miscellaneous offences

• Miscellaneous offences – down 3%

– Common assault – down 12%– Drunkenness - down 2%– Breach of the peace etc. – down 1%– Other offences – up 4%

Group 7 – Motor vehicle offences

• Motor vehicle offences – up 3%

– Dangerous and careless driving – up 7%– Driving under the influence offences – down 14%– Speeding offences – up 3%– Unlawful use of vehicle – down 1%– Vehicle defect offences – up 1%– Other motor vehicle offence – up 5%

Summary

• Overall, number of recorded crimes down 13% between 2011-12 and 2012-13 – just over 41,000 fewer crimes

– Non-sexual crimes of violence – down 21%– Sexual offences – up 5%– Crimes of dishonesty – down 12%– Crimes of fire-raising, vandalism – down 21%– Other crimes (including drug crimes) – down 8%

Police Reform

The Police and Fire Reform (Scotland) Act 2012 Prior to 1 April 2013:

•Eight police forces•Scottish Police Services Authority •Scottish Crime and Drug Enforcement Agency

From 1 April 2013 onwards:

•Police Scotland •Scottish Police Authority

Statistics from 2013-14 onwards

First set of statistics since establishment of Police Scotland following police reform.

Main changes:

•Geography – police force areas not presented

•Time series – local authority information for the past ten years

User Guide

• Scottish Crime Recording Standard and Counting Rules – summary

• Roles of organisations

• Data quality and QA procedures

• Classification of crimes and offences

• Changes to classifications/new legislation

• HMICS audits

• Comparability across the UK

Next steps - future consultation

Presentation of information in the forthcoming statistical bulletin

Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2013-14

•Focus on crime groups

•Interactive web tables

•Ten year trend information for local authorities

….as well as potential future considerations