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TTK Prestigue
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RESEARCH
CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
Enhancing investment decisions
TTK Prestige Ltd
Q2FY15 Results Update
CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix
The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process – Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).
CRISIL Fundamental Grade Assessment
CRISIL Valuation Grade Assessment
5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP) 4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP) 3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP) 2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP) 1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)
About CRISIL Limited CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are India’s leading ratings agency. We are also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world’s largest banks and leading corporations. About CRISIL Research CRISIL Research is India's largest independent integrated research house. We provide insights, opinion and analysis on the Indian economy, industry, capital markets and companies. We also conduct training programs to financial sector professionals on a wide array of technical issues. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 86 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 5,000 primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are the largest provider of valuation of fixed income securities to the mutual fund, insurance and banking industries in the country. We are also the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today the country's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macro-economy and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. Our talent pool comprises economists, sector experts, company analysts and information management specialists. CRISIL Privacy CRISIL respects your privacy. We use your contact information, such as your name, address, and email id, to fulfil your request and service your account and to provide you with additional information from CRISIL and other parts of McGraw Hill Financial you may find of interest.
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Last updated: August, 2014 Analyst Disclosure Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias the grading recommendation of the company. Disclaimer: This Company commissioned CRISIL IER report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable. CRISIL Ltd. (CRISIL) does not represent that it is accurate or complete and hence, it should not be relied upon as such. The data / report is subject to change without any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The subscriber / user assume the entire risk of any use made of this data / report. CRISIL especially states that, it has no financial liability whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this report. This report is for the personal information only of the authorised recipient in India only. This report should not be reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person – especially outside India or published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.
Revenue
RESEARCH
TTK Prestige Ltd
Revenue growth picking up but earnings continue to disappoint
Fundamental Grade 5/5 (Excellent fundamentals)
Valuation Grade 3/5 (CMP is aligned)
Industry Household Durables
1
October 17, 2014
Fair Value ₹3,690 CMP ₹3,857
For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.
TTK Prestige Ltd’s (TTK’s) Q2FY15 revenues were in line but earnings were below CRISIL Research’s expectations. Revenues grew 10.5% y-o-y to ₹3,820 mn driven by healthy growth in cookware and cooker segments. Owing to higher contribution from premium products and lower import cost, material cost as a percentage of sales declined by 295 bps to 56.3% from 59.2% in Q2FY14, which led to gross margin expansion. Despite this, EBITDA margin contracted by 76 bps y-o-y to 12.1% as low utilisation in the newly commissioned Gujarat plant resulted in higher overheads. Lower EBITDA margin coupled with higher depreciation and tax outflow pulled down PAT by 7.7% y-o-y to ₹280 mn. We expect TTK to post higher revenue growth in H2FY15 compared with the first half owing to a gradual revival in consumer demand, new product launches and easing regional concerns in the key southern markets. Subsequently, operating leverage arising out of higher top line is expected to aid EBITDA margin expansion. We maintain our fundamental grade of 5/5.
New product launches and pick-up in consumer sentiment to support revenue growth Driven by healthy growth in cooker and cookware segments, TTK’s revenues grew 10.5% y-o-y. Introduction of a range of new products, which were well accepted by the consumers, translated into sturdy growth in cooker (14% y-o-y, excluding microwave cookers) and cookware (32% y-o-y) segments. Although the appliances segment registered muted y-o-y sales growth of 3%, growth is expected to bounce back in the subsequent quarters owing to the low base of H2FY14. The regional concerns in key southern markets (power deficit in Tamil Nadu and political unrest in Andhra Pradesh) are easing, which is likely to be beneficial for the company going forward. Moreover, consumer sentiments are showing signs of pick-up. TTK plans to launch new products which are likely to boost growth. Driven by these factors, top line is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.4% over FY14-16E. However, intensifying competition in the highly fragmented kitchen appliances space may play spoilsport and, hence, is a monitorable.
Calibrated price increases and higher operating leverage to boost margins in H2FY15 Despite raw material cost as a percentage of sales going down by 295 bps y-o-y owing to change in the product mix, EBITDA margin contracted by 76 bps y-o-y to 12.1% as lower utilisation in the newly commissioned cooker and cookware facility in Gujarat resulted in under-absorption of fixed overheads. Earnings growth continues to disappoint (EPS growth has not been higher than 1% in the past six quarters); PAT declined 7.7% y-o-y to ₹280 mn. Going forward, we expect EBITDA margin to improve in H2FY15 as increase in top line is likely to result in positive operating leverage, which is expected to boost earnings growth.
Earnings estimates revised downwards; fair value maintained at ₹3,690 We have lowered our earnings estimates by 2% each for FY15 and FY16. However, the impact of lowered earnings estimates on valuation is negligible as we maintain our estimates for the explicit forecast period post FY16. Thus, we reiterate our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based fair value of ₹3,690. At the current market price of ₹3,857, our valuation grade is 3/5.
KEY FORECAST
(₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E Operating income 11,046 13,598 12,955 14,725 17,254 EBITDA 1,781 2,121 1,680 1,881 2,454 Adj net income 1,133 1,329 1,045 1,725 1,673 Adj EPS (₹) 99.9 117.0 89.6 148.0 143.6 EPS growth (%) 34.7 17.1 (23.4) 65.2 (3.0) Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 RoCE (%) 63.8 47.5 27.3 25.3 29.0 RoE (%) 47.5 39.0 21.3 26.5 21.6 PE (x) 38.6 33.0 43.0 26.1 26.9 P/BV (x) 15.3 11.1 7.7 6.3 5.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 24.8 21.0 26.7 23.3 17.5
NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price
Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates
CFV MATRIX
KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY/SENSEX 7780/26109
NSE/BSE ticker TTKPRESTIG/
TTKPRES Face value (₹ per share) 10 Shares outstanding (mn) 11.6 Market cap (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 44,897/729 Enterprise value (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 43,723/710 52-week range (₹)/(H/L) 4,832/2,693 Beta 1.0 Free float (%) 29.6% Avg daily volumes (30-days) 20,216 Avg daily value (30-days) (₹ mn) 84
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET
Returns
1-m 3-m 6-m 12-mTTK Prestige -14% 0% 25% 16%CNX 500 5% 4% 1% 4%
ANALYTICAL CONTACT Mohit Modi (Director) [email protected] Sayan Das Sharma [email protected] Bhaskar Bukrediwala [email protected] Client servicing desk +91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]
1 2 3 4 5
1
2
3
4
5
Valuation Grade
Fund
amen
tal G
rade
Poor Fundamentals
ExcellentFundamentals
Str
ong
Dow
nsid
e
Str
ong
Ups
ide
70.0% 70.0% 70.4% 70.4%
20.8% 22.1% 20.9% 21.0%2.8% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4%6.4% 6.4% 6.7% 6.2%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14
Promoter FII DII Others
CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
2
Q2FY15 Results Summary (₹ mn) Q2FY15 Q1FY15 Q2FY14 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY15 H1FY14 y-o-y (%) Net sales 3,820 3,364 3,456 13.5 10.5 7,183 6,519 10.2 Raw materials cost 2,149 1,855 2,047 15.9 5.0 4,004 3,833 4.5 Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 56.3% 55.1% 59.2% 114bps -295bps 55.7% 58.8% -305bps Employee cost 267 254 229 5.3 16.5 521 450 15.7 Other expenses 941 845 736 11.4 27.9 1,786 1,378 29.6 EBITDA 462 410 444 12.6 4.0 872 858 1.7 EBITDA margin 12.1% 12.2% 12.9% -11bps -76bps 12.1% 13.2% -102bps Depreciation 48 46 40 5.0 20.9 94 64 47.1 EBIT 414 365 404 13.5 2.3 778 794 (2.0) Interest and finance charges 11 6 22 78.0 (51.8) 16 53 (68.8) Operating PBT 403 359 383 12.4 5.4 762 742 2.8 Other income 11 12 26 (9.0) (57.8) 23 44 (46.6) PBT 414 371 409 11.7 1.3 785 785 0.0 Tax 135 106 106 27.3 27.3 240 224 7.2 PAT 280 265 303 5.5 (7.7) 545 561 (2.9) Adj PAT 280 265 303 5.5 (7.7) 545 561 (2.9) Adj PAT margin 7.3% 7.9% 8.8% -56bps -145bps 7.6% 8.6% -102bps No. of equity shares (mn) 11.6 11.6 11.6 - - 11.6 11.6 - Adj EPS (₹) 24.0 22.8 26.0 5.5 (7.7) 46.8 48.2 (2.9)
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Q2FY15: Product category-wise sales break-up
(₹ mn) Q2FY15 Q1FY15 Q2FY14 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY15 H1FY14 y-o-y (%) Cookers* 1,480 1,350 1,380 9.6 7.2 2,830 2,570 10.1 Cookware 740 560 560 32.1 32.1 1,300 1,040 25.0 Appliances 1,550 1,400 1,500 10.7 3.3 2,950 2,880 2.4 Others 140 130 90 7.7 55.6 270 180 50.0 Total 3,910 3,440 3,530 13.7 10.8 7,350 6,670 10.2
* Includes microwave cookers Revenues increased 11% y-o-y and 14% q-o-q Cooker segment grew 7% y-o-y
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
3,35
6
4,37
1
2,83
3
3,06
3
3,45
6
3,69
4
2,72
5
3,36
4
3,82
0
11%
31%
22%
1% 3%
-15%
-4%
10% 11%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000
Q2F
Y13
Q3F
Y13
Q4F
Y13
Q1F
Y14
Q2F
Y14
Q3F
Y14
Q4F
Y14
Q1F
Y15
Q2F
Y15
(₹ mn)
Revenues y-o-y growth (RHS)
1,33
0
1,58
0
980
1,19
0
1,38
0
1,33
0
1,04
0
1,35
0
1,48
0
20%
37%
10%
-2%4%
-16%
6% 13% 7%
-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Q2F
Y13
Q3F
Y13
Q4F
Y13
Q1F
Y14
Q2F
Y14
Q3F
Y14
Q4F
Y14
Q1F
Y15
Q2F
Y15
(₹ mn)
Cooker sales y-o-y growth (RHS)
RESEARCH
TTK Prestige Ltd
3
Cookware segment registered healthy growth of 32% y-o-y Appliances sales growth continues to be muted
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research High overheads pulled down EBITDA margin to 12.1%... ...Leading to 8% decline in adjusted PAT
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation
-Indexed to 100
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research
610
760
550
480
560
710
520
560
740
-52%
3%
25%
-9% -8% -7% -5%
17%32%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q2F
Y13
Q3F
Y13
Q4F
Y13
Q1F
Y14
Q2F
Y14
Q3F
Y14
Q4F
Y14
Q1F
Y15
Q2F
Y15
(₹ mn)
Cookware y-o-y growth (RHS)
1,37
0
1,99
0
1,26
0
1,38
0
1,50
0
1,62
0
1,13
0
1,40
0
1,55
0
7%
41%33%
13% 9%
-19%-10%
1% 3%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Q2F
Y13
Q3F
Y13
Q4F
Y13
Q1F
Y14
Q2F
Y14
Q3F
Y14
Q4F
Y14
Q1F
Y15
Q2F
Y15
(₹ mn)
Appliances sales y-o-y growth (RHS)
497 621 430 414 444 461 283 410 462
14.8%14.2%
15.2%13.5%
12.9% 12.5%
10.4%
12.2% 12.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Q2F
Y13
Q3F
Y13
Q4F
Y13
Q1F
Y14
Q2F
Y14
Q3F
Y14
Q4F
Y14
Q1F
Y15
Q2F
Y15
(₹ mn)
EBITDA EBITDA margin (RHS)
303 441 280 258 303 306 181 265 280
9.0%10.1% 9.9%
8.4% 8.8% 8.3%
6.6%7.9%
7.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Q2F
Y13
Q3F
Y13
Q4F
Y13
Q1F
Y14
Q2F
Y14
Q3F
Y14
Q4F
Y14
Q1F
Y15
Q2F
Y15
(₹ mn)
Adjusted PAT PAT margin (RHS)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Apr
-09
Aug-
09
Dec
-09
Apr
-10
Aug-
10
Dec
-10
Apr
-11
Aug-
11
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep-
12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep-
13
Jan-
14
Jun-
14
Oct
-14
TTK Prestige CNX 500
01002003004005006007008009001,000
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
Dec
-11
Feb
-12
Apr
-12
Jun-
12
Aug-
12
Oct
-12
Dec
-12
Feb
-13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep-
13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
Ma y
-14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
('000)(₹)
Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair ValueTTK Prestige
CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
4
Earnings Estimates Revised Downwards
Particulars Unit FY15E* FY16E
Old New % change Old New % changeRevenues (₹ mn) 14,725 14,725 0% 17,254 17,254 0%
EBITDA (₹ mn) 1,967 1,881 -4% 2,543 2,454 -4%
EBITDA margin % 13.4% 12.8% -59bps 14.7% 14.2% -52bps
PAT (₹ mn) 1,759 1,725 -2% 1,712 1,673 -2%
PAT margin % 11.9% 11.7% -23bps 9.9% 9.7% -22bps
EPS ₹ 151.0 148.0 -2% 146.9 143.6 -2%
*FY15 earnings include one-time cash flow (shown in other income) of ₹710 mn from the real estate project Reasons for changes in estimates Line item FY15E FY16E
Revenues No change
EBITDA margin Lowered as the ramp-up in capacity utilisation in the newly commissioned plant in Gujarat has been below our expectations, resulting in lower-than-expected EBITDA margin in H1FY15
PAT/PAT margin Lowered in line with EBITDA margin estimates
RESEARCH
TTK Prestige Ltd
5
Valuation Grade: 3/5 We have lowered our earnings estimate by 2% each for FY15 and FY16. However, the impact
of the downward revision in earnings estimates on valuation is negligible as we maintain our
estimates for the explicit forecast period post FY16. We continue to value TTK by the DCF
method and reiterate our fair value of ₹3,690. We have valued the core business (excluding
the one-time income from real estate) at ₹3,657, which implies P/E multiples of 34.2x and
25.4x FY15E and FY16E EPS respectively. We value the revenues from the real estate
project at ₹33/share. The stock is currently trading at ₹3,857, which implies P/E multiples of
36.6x and 27.1x FY15E and FY16E EPS respectively (excluding the one-time real estate
income of ₹710 mn in FY15). At the current market price, the valuation grade is 3/5. One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research P/E – premium / discount to CNX 500 P/E movement
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
Jun-
12
Aug
-12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Aug
-13
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
(₹)
TTK Prestige 15x 20x25x 30x 35x
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
Jun-
12
Aug-
12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Aug-
13
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
(₹ mn)
EV 8x 12x 16x 20x
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%180%200%
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
Jun-
12
Aug-
12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Aug-
13
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
Premium/Discount to CNX 500Median premium/discount to CNX 500
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
Jun-
12
Aug-
12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Aug-
13
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
(Times)
1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE
+1 std dev
-1 std dev
CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
6
CRISIL IER reports released on TTK Prestige Ltd
Date Nature of report Fundamental
grade Fair value Valuation grade CMP
(on the date of report) 07-Dec-11 Initiating coverage 5/5 ₹2,392 2/5 ₹2,787 24-Jan-12 Q3FY12 result update 5/5 ₹2,392 3/5 ₹2,401 15-May-12 Q4FY12 result update 5/5 ₹2,950 3/5 ₹3,098 11-July-12 Q1FY13 result update 5/5 ₹2,950 2/5 ₹3,297 16-Oct-12 Q2FY13 result update 5/5 ₹2,800 2/5 ₹3,203 12-Dec-12 Detailed report 5/5 ₹3,250 2/5 ₹3,827 22-Jan-13 Q3FY13 result update 5/5 ₹3,250 3/5 ₹3,278 23-May-13 Q4FY13 result update 5/5 ₹3,250 3/5 ₹3,513
22-July-13 Q1FY14 result update 5/5 ₹3,050 3/5 ₹3,354
28-Oct-13 Q2FY14 result update 5/5 ₹3,050 3/5 ₹3,262
27-Jan-14 Q3FY14 result Update 5/5 ₹3,050 2/5 ₹3,398
28-Mar-14 Detailed report 5/5 ₹3,050 3/5 ₹3,051
05-Jun-14 Q4FY14 result Update 5/5 ₹3,050 3/5 ₹3,302
31-Jul-14 Q1FY15 result Update 5/5 ₹3,690 3/5 ₹3,888
17-Oct-14 Q2FY15 result update 5/5 ₹3,690 3/5 ₹3,857
RESEARCH
TTK Prestige Ltd
7
Annexure: Financials
Note: FY15 earnings include one-time cash flow (shown in other income) of ₹710 mn from the real estate project Source: CRISIL Research
Income statement Balance Sheet(₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E (₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16EOperating income 11,046 13,598 12,955 14,725 17,254 LiabilitiesEBITDA 1,781 2,121 1,680 1,881 2,454 Equity share capital 113 114 117 117 117 EBITDA margin 16.1% 15.6% 13.0% 12.8% 14.2% Reserves 2,738 3,841 5,737 7,031 8,202 Depreciation 62 90 148 199 209 Minorities - - - - - EBIT 1,718 2,031 1,533 1,682 2,244 Net worth 2,851 3,955 5,853 7,147 8,318 Interest 103 202 135 27 - Convertible debt - - - - - Operating PBT 1,615 1,830 1,398 1,655 2,244 Other debt 597 1,151 269 - - Other income 17 20 46 810 146 Total debt 597 1,151 269 - - Exceptional inc/(exp) 1 2 61 - - Deferred tax liability (net) 68 101 205 205 205 PBT 1,632 1,852 1,505 2,465 2,390 Total liabilities 3,516 5,207 6,327 7,353 8,524 Tax provision 499 521 400 739 717 AssetsMinority interest - - - - - Net f ixed assets 1,507 1,658 3,378 3,520 3,414 PAT (Reported) 1,134 1,331 1,106 1,725 1,673 Capital WIP 868 1,529 271 30 32 Less: Exceptionals 1 2 61 - - Total fixed assets 2,375 3,188 3,649 3,550 3,445 Adjusted PAT 1,133 1,329 1,045 1,725 1,673 Investments 4 0 0 0 0
Current assetsRatios Inventory 1,749 2,355 2,668 3,054 3,578
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E Sundry debtors 1,060 1,432 1,491 1,695 1,891 Growth Loans and advances 1,424 584 505 574 586 Operating income (%) 44.5 23.1 (4.7) 13.7 17.2 Cash & bank balance 223 326 296 1,086 2,042 EBITDA (%) 40.5 19.1 (20.8) 11.9 30.5 Marketable securities - - 90 90 - Adj PAT (%) 34.7 17.3 (21.4) 65.2 (3.0) Total current assets 4,457 4,697 5,050 6,498 8,097 Adj EPS (%) 34.7 17.1 (23.4) 65.2 (3.0) Total current liabilities 3,320 2,700 2,391 2,714 3,128
Net current assets 1,137 1,997 2,660 3,784 4,970 Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure - 23 18 18 18 EBITDA margin (%) 16.1 15.6 13.0 12.8 14.2 Total assets 3,516 5,207 6,327 7,353 8,434 Adj PAT Margin (%) 10.3 9.8 8.1 11.7 9.7 BS NOT MRoE (%) 47.5 39.0 21.3 26.5 21.6 Cash flowRoCE (%) 63.8 47.5 27.3 25.3 29.0 (₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16ERoIC (%) 54.2 38.8 23.1 43.1 29.5 Pre-tax profit 1,631 1,850 1,444 2,465 2,390
Total tax paid (463) (488) (295) (739) (717) Valuations Depreciation 62 90 148 199 209 Price-earnings (x) 38.6 33.0 43.0 26.1 26.9 Working capital changes (619) (757) (603) (335) (319) Price-book (x) 15.3 11.1 7.7 6.3 5.4 Net cash from operations 611 694 694 1,590 1,563 EV/EBITDA (x) 24.8 21.0 26.7 23.3 17.5 Cash from investmentsEV/Sales (x) 4.0 3.3 3.5 3.0 2.5 Capital expenditure (1,523) (925) (605) (100) (105) Dividend payout ratio (%) 15.0 14.9 21.1 21.4 25.6 Investments and others 222 4 (90) - 90 Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 Net cash from investments (1,301) (921) (695) (100) (15)
Cash from financingB/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) - 0 1,053 12 - Inventory days 58 63 75 76 76 Debt raised/(repaid) 574 554 (882) (269) - Creditors days 57 52 52 52 52 Dividend (incl. tax) (197) (232) (272) (431) (502) Debtor days 35 38 42 42 40 Others (incl extraordinaries) 1 7 73 (12) - Working capital days 20 35 56 61 59 Net cash from financing 378 329 (28) (700) (502) Gross asset turnover (x) 7.7 6.4 4.1 3.5 3.9 Change in cash position (312) 102 (29) 790 1,047 Net asset turnover (x) 11.5 8.6 5.1 4.3 5.0 Closing cash 223 326 296 1,086 2,042 Sales/operating assets (x) 6.7 4.9 3.8 4.1 4.9 Current ratio (x) 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.6 Debt-equity (x) 0.2 0.3 0.0 - - Quarterly financialsNet debt/equity (x) 0.1 0.2 (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) (₹ mn) Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15Interest coverage (EBITDA/interest) 20.5 8.3 14.0 91.2 NM Net Sales 3,456 3,694 2,725 3,364 3,820 Interest coverage (EBIT/Interest) 16.6 10.1 11.4 62.5 NM Change (q-o-q) 13% 7% -26% 23% 11%
EBITDA 444 461 283 410 462 Per share Change (q-o-q) 7% 4% -39% 45% 4%
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E EBITDA margin 12.9% 12.5% 10.4% 12.2% 12.1%Adj EPS (₹) 99.9 117.0 89.6 148.0 143.6 PAT 303 295 262 265 280 CEPS 105.4 124.9 102.3 165.1 161.5 Adj PAT 303 306 181 265 280 Book value 251.5 348.3 502.2 613.2 713.7 Change (q-o-q) 18% 1% -41% 46% -8%Dividend (₹) 15.0 17.5 20.0 31.6 36.8 Adj PAT margin 8.8% 8.3% 6.6% 7.9% 7.3%Actual o/s shares (mn) 11.3 11.4 11.7 11.7 11.7 Adj EPS 26 26 16 23 24
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Mukesh Agarwal CRISIL Research +91 22 3342 3035 [email protected]
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Prosenjit Ghosh Director, Industry & Customised Research +91 22 3342 8008 [email protected]
Business Development – Equity Research Vikram Thirani – Associate Director Email : [email protected] Phone : +91 9820199188
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