12

Click here to load reader

CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

TTK Prestigue

Citation preview

Page 1: CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

RESEARCH

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

Enhancing investment decisions

TTK Prestige Ltd

Q2FY15 Results Update

Page 2: CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process – Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL Fundamental Grade Assessment

CRISIL Valuation Grade Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP) 4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP) 3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP) 2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP) 1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

About CRISIL Limited CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are India’s leading ratings agency. We are also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world’s largest banks and leading corporations. About CRISIL Research CRISIL Research is India's largest independent integrated research house. We provide insights, opinion and analysis on the Indian economy, industry, capital markets and companies. We also conduct training programs to financial sector professionals on a wide array of technical issues. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 86 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 5,000 primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are the largest provider of valuation of fixed income securities to the mutual fund, insurance and banking industries in the country. We are also the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today the country's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macro-economy and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. Our talent pool comprises economists, sector experts, company analysts and information management specialists. CRISIL Privacy CRISIL respects your privacy. We use your contact information, such as your name, address, and email id, to fulfil your request and service your account and to provide you with additional information from CRISIL and other parts of McGraw Hill Financial you may find of interest.

For further information, or to let us know your preferences with respect to receiving marketing materials, please visit www.crisil.com/privacy. You can view McGraw Hill Financial’s Customer Privacy Policy at http://www.mhfi.com/privacy.

Last updated: August, 2014 Analyst Disclosure Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias the grading recommendation of the company. Disclaimer: This Company commissioned CRISIL IER report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable. CRISIL Ltd. (CRISIL) does not represent that it is accurate or complete and hence, it should not be relied upon as such. The data / report is subject to change without any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The subscriber / user assume the entire risk of any use made of this data / report. CRISIL especially states that, it has no financial liability whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this report. This report is for the personal information only of the authorised recipient in India only. This report should not be reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person – especially outside India or published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.

Page 3: CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

Revenue

RESEARCH

TTK Prestige Ltd

Revenue growth picking up but earnings continue to disappoint

Fundamental Grade 5/5 (Excellent fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 3/5 (CMP is aligned)

Industry Household Durables

1

October 17, 2014

Fair Value ₹3,690 CMP ₹3,857

For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

TTK Prestige Ltd’s (TTK’s) Q2FY15 revenues were in line but earnings were below CRISIL Research’s expectations. Revenues grew 10.5% y-o-y to ₹3,820 mn driven by healthy growth in cookware and cooker segments. Owing to higher contribution from premium products and lower import cost, material cost as a percentage of sales declined by 295 bps to 56.3% from 59.2% in Q2FY14, which led to gross margin expansion. Despite this, EBITDA margin contracted by 76 bps y-o-y to 12.1% as low utilisation in the newly commissioned Gujarat plant resulted in higher overheads. Lower EBITDA margin coupled with higher depreciation and tax outflow pulled down PAT by 7.7% y-o-y to ₹280 mn. We expect TTK to post higher revenue growth in H2FY15 compared with the first half owing to a gradual revival in consumer demand, new product launches and easing regional concerns in the key southern markets. Subsequently, operating leverage arising out of higher top line is expected to aid EBITDA margin expansion. We maintain our fundamental grade of 5/5.

New product launches and pick-up in consumer sentiment to support revenue growth Driven by healthy growth in cooker and cookware segments, TTK’s revenues grew 10.5% y-o-y. Introduction of a range of new products, which were well accepted by the consumers, translated into sturdy growth in cooker (14% y-o-y, excluding microwave cookers) and cookware (32% y-o-y) segments. Although the appliances segment registered muted y-o-y sales growth of 3%, growth is expected to bounce back in the subsequent quarters owing to the low base of H2FY14. The regional concerns in key southern markets (power deficit in Tamil Nadu and political unrest in Andhra Pradesh) are easing, which is likely to be beneficial for the company going forward. Moreover, consumer sentiments are showing signs of pick-up. TTK plans to launch new products which are likely to boost growth. Driven by these factors, top line is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.4% over FY14-16E. However, intensifying competition in the highly fragmented kitchen appliances space may play spoilsport and, hence, is a monitorable.

Calibrated price increases and higher operating leverage to boost margins in H2FY15 Despite raw material cost as a percentage of sales going down by 295 bps y-o-y owing to change in the product mix, EBITDA margin contracted by 76 bps y-o-y to 12.1% as lower utilisation in the newly commissioned cooker and cookware facility in Gujarat resulted in under-absorption of fixed overheads. Earnings growth continues to disappoint (EPS growth has not been higher than 1% in the past six quarters); PAT declined 7.7% y-o-y to ₹280 mn. Going forward, we expect EBITDA margin to improve in H2FY15 as increase in top line is likely to result in positive operating leverage, which is expected to boost earnings growth.

Earnings estimates revised downwards; fair value maintained at ₹3,690 We have lowered our earnings estimates by 2% each for FY15 and FY16. However, the impact of lowered earnings estimates on valuation is negligible as we maintain our estimates for the explicit forecast period post FY16. Thus, we reiterate our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based fair value of ₹3,690. At the current market price of ₹3,857, our valuation grade is 3/5.

KEY FORECAST

(₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E Operating income 11,046 13,598 12,955 14,725 17,254 EBITDA 1,781 2,121 1,680 1,881 2,454 Adj net income 1,133 1,329 1,045 1,725 1,673 Adj EPS (₹) 99.9 117.0 89.6 148.0 143.6 EPS growth (%) 34.7 17.1 (23.4) 65.2 (3.0) Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 RoCE (%) 63.8 47.5 27.3 25.3 29.0 RoE (%) 47.5 39.0 21.3 26.5 21.6 PE (x) 38.6 33.0 43.0 26.1 26.9 P/BV (x) 15.3 11.1 7.7 6.3 5.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 24.8 21.0 26.7 23.3 17.5

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY/SENSEX 7780/26109

NSE/BSE ticker TTKPRESTIG/

TTKPRES Face value (₹ per share) 10 Shares outstanding (mn) 11.6 Market cap (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 44,897/729 Enterprise value (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 43,723/710 52-week range (₹)/(H/L) 4,832/2,693 Beta 1.0 Free float (%) 29.6% Avg daily volumes (30-days) 20,216 Avg daily value (30-days) (₹ mn) 84

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-mTTK Prestige -14% 0% 25% 16%CNX 500 5% 4% 1% 4%

ANALYTICAL CONTACT Mohit Modi (Director) [email protected] Sayan Das Sharma [email protected] Bhaskar Bukrediwala [email protected] Client servicing desk +91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

Fund

amen

tal G

rade

Poor Fundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

Str

ong

Dow

nsid

e

Str

ong

Ups

ide

70.0% 70.0% 70.4% 70.4%

20.8% 22.1% 20.9% 21.0%2.8% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4%6.4% 6.4% 6.7% 6.2%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14

Promoter FII DII Others

Page 4: CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

2

Q2FY15 Results Summary (₹ mn) Q2FY15 Q1FY15 Q2FY14 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY15 H1FY14 y-o-y (%) Net sales 3,820 3,364 3,456 13.5 10.5 7,183 6,519 10.2 Raw materials cost 2,149 1,855 2,047 15.9 5.0 4,004 3,833 4.5 Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 56.3% 55.1% 59.2% 114bps -295bps 55.7% 58.8% -305bps Employee cost 267 254 229 5.3 16.5 521 450 15.7 Other expenses 941 845 736 11.4 27.9 1,786 1,378 29.6 EBITDA 462 410 444 12.6 4.0 872 858 1.7 EBITDA margin 12.1% 12.2% 12.9% -11bps -76bps 12.1% 13.2% -102bps Depreciation 48 46 40 5.0 20.9 94 64 47.1 EBIT 414 365 404 13.5 2.3 778 794 (2.0) Interest and finance charges 11 6 22 78.0 (51.8) 16 53 (68.8) Operating PBT 403 359 383 12.4 5.4 762 742 2.8 Other income 11 12 26 (9.0) (57.8) 23 44 (46.6) PBT 414 371 409 11.7 1.3 785 785 0.0 Tax 135 106 106 27.3 27.3 240 224 7.2 PAT 280 265 303 5.5 (7.7) 545 561 (2.9) Adj PAT 280 265 303 5.5 (7.7) 545 561 (2.9) Adj PAT margin 7.3% 7.9% 8.8% -56bps -145bps 7.6% 8.6% -102bps No. of equity shares (mn) 11.6 11.6 11.6 - - 11.6 11.6 - Adj EPS (₹) 24.0 22.8 26.0 5.5 (7.7) 46.8 48.2 (2.9)

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Q2FY15: Product category-wise sales break-up

(₹ mn) Q2FY15 Q1FY15 Q2FY14 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY15 H1FY14 y-o-y (%) Cookers* 1,480 1,350 1,380 9.6 7.2 2,830 2,570 10.1 Cookware 740 560 560 32.1 32.1 1,300 1,040 25.0 Appliances 1,550 1,400 1,500 10.7 3.3 2,950 2,880 2.4 Others 140 130 90 7.7 55.6 270 180 50.0 Total 3,910 3,440 3,530 13.7 10.8 7,350 6,670 10.2

* Includes microwave cookers Revenues increased 11% y-o-y and 14% q-o-q Cooker segment grew 7% y-o-y

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

3,35

6

4,37

1

2,83

3

3,06

3

3,45

6

3,69

4

2,72

5

3,36

4

3,82

0

11%

31%

22%

1% 3%

-15%

-4%

10% 11%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

Q2F

Y13

Q3F

Y13

Q4F

Y13

Q1F

Y14

Q2F

Y14

Q3F

Y14

Q4F

Y14

Q1F

Y15

Q2F

Y15

(₹ mn)

Revenues y-o-y growth (RHS)

1,33

0

1,58

0

980

1,19

0

1,38

0

1,33

0

1,04

0

1,35

0

1,48

0

20%

37%

10%

-2%4%

-16%

6% 13% 7%

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Q2F

Y13

Q3F

Y13

Q4F

Y13

Q1F

Y14

Q2F

Y14

Q3F

Y14

Q4F

Y14

Q1F

Y15

Q2F

Y15

(₹ mn)

Cooker sales y-o-y growth (RHS)

Page 5: CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

RESEARCH

TTK Prestige Ltd

3

Cookware segment registered healthy growth of 32% y-o-y Appliances sales growth continues to be muted

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research High overheads pulled down EBITDA margin to 12.1%... ...Leading to 8% decline in adjusted PAT

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-Indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research

610

760

550

480

560

710

520

560

740

-52%

3%

25%

-9% -8% -7% -5%

17%32%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q2F

Y13

Q3F

Y13

Q4F

Y13

Q1F

Y14

Q2F

Y14

Q3F

Y14

Q4F

Y14

Q1F

Y15

Q2F

Y15

(₹ mn)

Cookware y-o-y growth (RHS)

1,37

0

1,99

0

1,26

0

1,38

0

1,50

0

1,62

0

1,13

0

1,40

0

1,55

0

7%

41%33%

13% 9%

-19%-10%

1% 3%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Q2F

Y13

Q3F

Y13

Q4F

Y13

Q1F

Y14

Q2F

Y14

Q3F

Y14

Q4F

Y14

Q1F

Y15

Q2F

Y15

(₹ mn)

Appliances sales y-o-y growth (RHS)

497 621 430 414 444 461 283 410 462

14.8%14.2%

15.2%13.5%

12.9% 12.5%

10.4%

12.2% 12.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q2F

Y13

Q3F

Y13

Q4F

Y13

Q1F

Y14

Q2F

Y14

Q3F

Y14

Q4F

Y14

Q1F

Y15

Q2F

Y15

(₹ mn)

EBITDA EBITDA margin (RHS)

303 441 280 258 303 306 181 265 280

9.0%10.1% 9.9%

8.4% 8.8% 8.3%

6.6%7.9%

7.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Q2F

Y13

Q3F

Y13

Q4F

Y13

Q1F

Y14

Q2F

Y14

Q3F

Y14

Q4F

Y14

Q1F

Y15

Q2F

Y15

(₹ mn)

Adjusted PAT PAT margin (RHS)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Apr

-09

Aug-

09

Dec

-09

Apr

-10

Aug-

10

Dec

-10

Apr

-11

Aug-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

Jun-

14

Oct

-14

TTK Prestige CNX 500

01002003004005006007008009001,000

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Apr

-12

Jun-

12

Aug-

12

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep-

13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

Ma y

-14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

('000)(₹)

Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair ValueTTK Prestige

Page 6: CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

4

Earnings Estimates Revised Downwards

Particulars Unit FY15E* FY16E

Old New % change Old New % changeRevenues (₹ mn) 14,725 14,725 0% 17,254 17,254 0%

EBITDA (₹ mn) 1,967 1,881 -4% 2,543 2,454 -4%

EBITDA margin % 13.4% 12.8% -59bps 14.7% 14.2% -52bps

PAT (₹ mn) 1,759 1,725 -2% 1,712 1,673 -2%

PAT margin % 11.9% 11.7% -23bps 9.9% 9.7% -22bps

EPS ₹ 151.0 148.0 -2% 146.9 143.6 -2%

*FY15 earnings include one-time cash flow (shown in other income) of ₹710 mn from the real estate project Reasons for changes in estimates Line item FY15E FY16E

Revenues No change

EBITDA margin Lowered as the ramp-up in capacity utilisation in the newly commissioned plant in Gujarat has been below our expectations, resulting in lower-than-expected EBITDA margin in H1FY15

PAT/PAT margin Lowered in line with EBITDA margin estimates

Page 7: CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

RESEARCH

TTK Prestige Ltd

5

Valuation Grade: 3/5 We have lowered our earnings estimate by 2% each for FY15 and FY16. However, the impact

of the downward revision in earnings estimates on valuation is negligible as we maintain our

estimates for the explicit forecast period post FY16. We continue to value TTK by the DCF

method and reiterate our fair value of ₹3,690. We have valued the core business (excluding

the one-time income from real estate) at ₹3,657, which implies P/E multiples of 34.2x and

25.4x FY15E and FY16E EPS respectively. We value the revenues from the real estate

project at ₹33/share. The stock is currently trading at ₹3,857, which implies P/E multiples of

36.6x and 27.1x FY15E and FY16E EPS respectively (excluding the one-time real estate

income of ₹710 mn in FY15). At the current market price, the valuation grade is 3/5. One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research P/E – premium / discount to CNX 500 P/E movement

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Aug

-12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Aug

-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

(₹)

TTK Prestige 15x 20x25x 30x 35x

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Aug-

12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Aug-

13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

(₹ mn)

EV 8x 12x 16x 20x

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%180%200%

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Aug-

12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Aug-

13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Premium/Discount to CNX 500Median premium/discount to CNX 500

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Aug-

12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Aug-

13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

(Times)

1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE

+1 std dev

-1 std dev

Page 8: CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

6

CRISIL IER reports released on TTK Prestige Ltd

Date Nature of report Fundamental

grade Fair value Valuation grade CMP

(on the date of report) 07-Dec-11 Initiating coverage 5/5 ₹2,392 2/5 ₹2,787 24-Jan-12 Q3FY12 result update 5/5 ₹2,392 3/5 ₹2,401 15-May-12 Q4FY12 result update 5/5 ₹2,950 3/5 ₹3,098 11-July-12 Q1FY13 result update 5/5 ₹2,950 2/5 ₹3,297 16-Oct-12 Q2FY13 result update 5/5 ₹2,800 2/5 ₹3,203 12-Dec-12 Detailed report 5/5 ₹3,250 2/5 ₹3,827 22-Jan-13 Q3FY13 result update 5/5 ₹3,250 3/5 ₹3,278 23-May-13 Q4FY13 result update 5/5 ₹3,250 3/5 ₹3,513

22-July-13 Q1FY14 result update 5/5 ₹3,050 3/5 ₹3,354

28-Oct-13 Q2FY14 result update 5/5 ₹3,050 3/5 ₹3,262

27-Jan-14 Q3FY14 result Update 5/5 ₹3,050 2/5 ₹3,398

28-Mar-14 Detailed report 5/5 ₹3,050 3/5 ₹3,051

05-Jun-14 Q4FY14 result Update 5/5 ₹3,050 3/5 ₹3,302

31-Jul-14 Q1FY15 result Update 5/5 ₹3,690 3/5 ₹3,888

17-Oct-14 Q2FY15 result update 5/5 ₹3,690 3/5 ₹3,857

Page 9: CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

RESEARCH

TTK Prestige Ltd

7

Annexure: Financials

Note: FY15 earnings include one-time cash flow (shown in other income) of ₹710 mn from the real estate project Source: CRISIL Research

Income statement Balance Sheet(₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E (₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16EOperating income 11,046 13,598 12,955 14,725 17,254 LiabilitiesEBITDA 1,781 2,121 1,680 1,881 2,454 Equity share capital 113 114 117 117 117 EBITDA margin 16.1% 15.6% 13.0% 12.8% 14.2% Reserves 2,738 3,841 5,737 7,031 8,202 Depreciation 62 90 148 199 209 Minorities - - - - - EBIT 1,718 2,031 1,533 1,682 2,244 Net worth 2,851 3,955 5,853 7,147 8,318 Interest 103 202 135 27 - Convertible debt - - - - - Operating PBT 1,615 1,830 1,398 1,655 2,244 Other debt 597 1,151 269 - - Other income 17 20 46 810 146 Total debt 597 1,151 269 - - Exceptional inc/(exp) 1 2 61 - - Deferred tax liability (net) 68 101 205 205 205 PBT 1,632 1,852 1,505 2,465 2,390 Total liabilities 3,516 5,207 6,327 7,353 8,524 Tax provision 499 521 400 739 717 AssetsMinority interest - - - - - Net f ixed assets 1,507 1,658 3,378 3,520 3,414 PAT (Reported) 1,134 1,331 1,106 1,725 1,673 Capital WIP 868 1,529 271 30 32 Less: Exceptionals 1 2 61 - - Total fixed assets 2,375 3,188 3,649 3,550 3,445 Adjusted PAT 1,133 1,329 1,045 1,725 1,673 Investments 4 0 0 0 0

Current assetsRatios Inventory 1,749 2,355 2,668 3,054 3,578

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E Sundry debtors 1,060 1,432 1,491 1,695 1,891 Growth Loans and advances 1,424 584 505 574 586 Operating income (%) 44.5 23.1 (4.7) 13.7 17.2 Cash & bank balance 223 326 296 1,086 2,042 EBITDA (%) 40.5 19.1 (20.8) 11.9 30.5 Marketable securities - - 90 90 - Adj PAT (%) 34.7 17.3 (21.4) 65.2 (3.0) Total current assets 4,457 4,697 5,050 6,498 8,097 Adj EPS (%) 34.7 17.1 (23.4) 65.2 (3.0) Total current liabilities 3,320 2,700 2,391 2,714 3,128

Net current assets 1,137 1,997 2,660 3,784 4,970 Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure - 23 18 18 18 EBITDA margin (%) 16.1 15.6 13.0 12.8 14.2 Total assets 3,516 5,207 6,327 7,353 8,434 Adj PAT Margin (%) 10.3 9.8 8.1 11.7 9.7 BS NOT MRoE (%) 47.5 39.0 21.3 26.5 21.6 Cash flowRoCE (%) 63.8 47.5 27.3 25.3 29.0 (₹ mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16ERoIC (%) 54.2 38.8 23.1 43.1 29.5 Pre-tax profit 1,631 1,850 1,444 2,465 2,390

Total tax paid (463) (488) (295) (739) (717) Valuations Depreciation 62 90 148 199 209 Price-earnings (x) 38.6 33.0 43.0 26.1 26.9 Working capital changes (619) (757) (603) (335) (319) Price-book (x) 15.3 11.1 7.7 6.3 5.4 Net cash from operations 611 694 694 1,590 1,563 EV/EBITDA (x) 24.8 21.0 26.7 23.3 17.5 Cash from investmentsEV/Sales (x) 4.0 3.3 3.5 3.0 2.5 Capital expenditure (1,523) (925) (605) (100) (105) Dividend payout ratio (%) 15.0 14.9 21.1 21.4 25.6 Investments and others 222 4 (90) - 90 Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 Net cash from investments (1,301) (921) (695) (100) (15)

Cash from financingB/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) - 0 1,053 12 - Inventory days 58 63 75 76 76 Debt raised/(repaid) 574 554 (882) (269) - Creditors days 57 52 52 52 52 Dividend (incl. tax) (197) (232) (272) (431) (502) Debtor days 35 38 42 42 40 Others (incl extraordinaries) 1 7 73 (12) - Working capital days 20 35 56 61 59 Net cash from financing 378 329 (28) (700) (502) Gross asset turnover (x) 7.7 6.4 4.1 3.5 3.9 Change in cash position (312) 102 (29) 790 1,047 Net asset turnover (x) 11.5 8.6 5.1 4.3 5.0 Closing cash 223 326 296 1,086 2,042 Sales/operating assets (x) 6.7 4.9 3.8 4.1 4.9 Current ratio (x) 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.6 Debt-equity (x) 0.2 0.3 0.0 - - Quarterly financialsNet debt/equity (x) 0.1 0.2 (0.0) (0.2) (0.2) (₹ mn) Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15Interest coverage (EBITDA/interest) 20.5 8.3 14.0 91.2 NM Net Sales 3,456 3,694 2,725 3,364 3,820 Interest coverage (EBIT/Interest) 16.6 10.1 11.4 62.5 NM Change (q-o-q) 13% 7% -26% 23% 11%

EBITDA 444 461 283 410 462 Per share Change (q-o-q) 7% 4% -39% 45% 4%

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E EBITDA margin 12.9% 12.5% 10.4% 12.2% 12.1%Adj EPS (₹) 99.9 117.0 89.6 148.0 143.6 PAT 303 295 262 265 280 CEPS 105.4 124.9 102.3 165.1 161.5 Adj PAT 303 306 181 265 280 Book value 251.5 348.3 502.2 613.2 713.7 Change (q-o-q) 18% 1% -41% 46% -8%Dividend (₹) 15.0 17.5 20.0 31.6 36.8 Adj PAT margin 8.8% 8.3% 6.6% 7.9% 7.3%Actual o/s shares (mn) 11.3 11.4 11.7 11.7 11.7 Adj EPS 26 26 16 23 24

Page 10: CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

CRISIL Research Team

President

Mukesh Agarwal CRISIL Research +91 22 3342 3035 [email protected]

Analytical Contacts

Sandeep Sabharwal Senior Director, Capital Markets +91 22 4097 8052 [email protected]

Prasad Koparkar Senior Director, Industry & Customised Research +91 22 3342 3137 [email protected]

Binaifer Jehani Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 4091 [email protected]

Manoj Mohta Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 3554 [email protected]

Sudhir Nair Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 3526 [email protected]

Mohit Modi Director, Equity Research +91 22 4254 2860 [email protected]

Jiju Vidyadharan Director, Funds & Fixed Income Research +91 22 3342 8091 [email protected]

Ajay D'Souza Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3567 [email protected]

Ajay Srinivasan Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3530 [email protected]

Rahul Prithiani Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3574 [email protected]

Business Development

Hani Jalan Director, Capital Markets +91 22 3342 3077 [email protected]

Prosenjit Ghosh Director, Industry & Customised Research +91 22 3342 8008 [email protected]

Business Development – Equity Research Vikram Thirani – Associate Director Email : [email protected] Phone : +91 9820199188

Saurabh Sabharwal – Business Development Manager Email : [email protected] Phone : +91 9650228684

Priyanka Murarka – Regional Manager Email : [email protected] Phone : +91 9903060685

Page 11: CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

RESEARCH

Our Capabilities

Making Markets Function Better

Economy and Industry Research ■ Largest team of economy and industry research analysts in India

■ Acknowledged premium, high quality research provider with track record spanning two decades

■ 95% of India’s commercial banking industry by asset base uses our industry research for credit decisions

■ Coverage on 86 industries: We provide analysis and forecast on key industry parameters including demand, supply, prices,investments and profitability, along with insightful opinions on emerging trends and impact of key events

■ Research on sectors and clusters dominated by small and medium enterprises covering analysis of relative attractiveness,growth prospects and financial performance

■ High-end customised research for many leading Indian and global corporates in areas such as market sizing, demandforecasting, project feasibility and entry strategy

Funds and Fixed Income Research ■ Largest and most comprehensive database on India’s debt market, covering more than 18,000 securities

■ Largest provider of fixed income valuations in India

■ Provide valuation for more than Rs.70 trillion (USD 1,167billion) of Indian debt securities

■ Sole provider of fixed income and hybrid indices to mutual funds and insurance companies; we maintain 37 standard indicesand over 100 customised indices

■ Ranking of Indian mutual fund schemes covering 73% of assets under management and Rs.7.2 trillion (USD 120 billion) byvalue

■ Business review consultants to The Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) and The National Pension System(NPS) Trust in monitoring performance of their fund managers

Equity and Company Research ■ Largest independent equity research house in India,; coverage exceeds 140 companies

■ First research house to release exchange-commissioned equity research reports in India; covered 1,488 firms listed andtraded on the National Stock Exchange

■ Assigned the first IPO grade in India; graded more than 100 IPOs till date

Executive Training ■ Conducted 1000+ training programs on a wide spectrum of topics including credit, risk, retail finance, treasury, and

corporate advisory; trained 20,000 more than professionals till date

■ Training programs being conducted in India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh through an extensive network of well-qualifiedfinancial professionals

Page 12: CRISIL Research Ier Report Ttk Prestige 2014 Q2FY15

Our Office

Ahmedabad 706, Venus Atlantis Nr. Reliance Petrol Pump Prahladnagar, Ahmedabad, India Phone: +91 79 4024 4500 Fax: +91 79 2755 9863

Hyderabad 3rd Floor, Uma Chambers Plot No. 9&10, Nagarjuna Hills, (Near Punjagutta Cross Road) Hyderabad - 500 482, India Phone: +91 40 2335 8103/05 Fax: +91 40 2335 7507

Bengaluru W-101, Sunrise Chambers, 22, Ulsoor Road, Bengaluru - 560 042, India Phone: +91 80 2558 0899

+91 80 2559 4802 Fax: +91 80 2559 4801

Kolkata Horizon, Block 'B', 4th Floor 57 Chowringhee Road Kolkata - 700 071, India Phone: +91 33 2289 1949/50 Fax: +91 33 2283 0597

Chennai Thapar House, 43/44, Montieth Road, Egmore, Chennai - 600 008, India Phone: +91 44 2854 6205/06

+91 44 2854 6093 Fax: +91 44 2854 7531

Pune 1187/17, Ghole Road, Shivaji Nagar, Pune - 411 005, India Phone: +91 20 2553 9064/67 Fax: +91 20 4018 1930

Gurgaon Plot No. 46 Sector 44 Opp. PF Office Gurgaon - 122 003, India Phone: +91 124 6722 000

Stay Connected | CRISIL Website | Twitter | LinkedIn |

YouTube | Facebook

CRISIL Ltd is a Standard & Poor's company

CRISIL Limited CRISIL House, Central Avenue, Hiranandani Business Park, Powai, Mumbai – 400076. India Phone: +91 22 3342 3000 | Fax: +91 22 3342 8088 www.crisil.com