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SRA:E NORDIC 2015 - LUND UNIVERSITY | CenCIP & LUCRAM | Jonas Johansson | 2015-11-16
Critical Infrastructures – Concepts and five challenges
from a risk perspective on interdependencies
LUND UNIVERSITY / CENCIP & LUCRAM / SWEDEN
J. JOHANSSON, H. HASSEL, A. CEDERGREN, L. SVEGRUP., B. ARVIDSSON & F. LANDEGREN
SRA:E NORDIC 2015 - LUND UNIVERSITY | CenCIP & LUCRAM | Jonas Johansson | 2015-11-16
Critical Infrastructures?
• “…those assets or parts thereof which are essential for the maintenance of
critical societal functions, including the supply chain, health, safety, security,
economic or social well-being of people” (EPCIP – COM, 2006)
• Brief history – From sector regulation towards holistic infrastructure protection
– Starting point for the field; Executive Order 13010 (Executive Order, 1996), creating
PCCIP in the USA.
– 9/11 in 2001 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005 illuminated the importance and
vulnerability of critical infrastructure. Creation of DHS and intensified work.
From terrorism towards all-hazard approaches.
– In Europe, the EPCIP program was initiated in 2006.
– Today most countries around the world have programs
focused towards CIP, i.e. moving from earlier
“sector-divided” approaches towards more
holistic infrastructure protection approaches.
– A response to the interconnectedness of todays
infrastructures – the backbone of society.
SRA:E NORDIC 2015 - LUND UNIVERSITY | CenCIP & LUCRAM | Jonas Johansson | 2015-11-16
Why?
• Society heavily dependent on the
services of critical infrastructures,
widespread disruption entails large-
scale societal impacts.
• Hence:
– Proactive risk and vulnerability
methods and actions
fundamental
– Increasing our understanding
the limits of critical
infrastructures of essence
• However, there exist several
research challenges for a holistic
understanding and a need for
method development in this field. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Incu
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SE
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1. Agriculture, hunting and related service activities2. Forestry, logging and related service activities3. Fishing industry4. Mining of coal and lignite; extraction of peat
5. Mining of metal ores, Other mining and quarrying6. Manufacture food and beverages
7. Manufacture of textiles8. Manufacture of wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur9. Tanning and dressing of leather
10. Manufucture wood and products of wood11. Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products
12. Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media13. Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuels
14. Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products15. Manufacture of rubber and plastic products16. Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products
17. Manufacture of basic metals18. Manufacture of metal products19. Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.
20. Manufacture of office machinery and computers21. Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus
22. Manufacture of medical equipment23. Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
24. Manufacture of other transport equipment25. Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing n.e.c.
26. RecyclingElectricity Sector: 396 MSEK/day
28. Gas, steam and hot water supply29. Collection, purification and distribution of water
30. Construction31. Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles
32. Wholesale trade and commission trade33. Retail trade
34. Hotels and restaurants35. Land transport; transport via pipelines
36. Water transport37. Air transport
38. Supporting and auxiliary transport activities39. Post and telecommunications
40. Financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding41. Insurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security
42. Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation43. Real estate activities
44. Renting of machinery and equipment45. Computer and related activities
46. Research and development, Other business activities47. Public admnistration and defense
48. Education49. Health and social work
50. Sewage and refuse disposal, sanitation and similar activities51. Activities of membership organisation n.e.c.
52. Recreational, cultural and sporting activities53. Other service activities54. Private households with employed persons55. Imports
56. Exports
Economic loss (MSEK/day)
SRA:E NORDIC 2015 - LUND UNIVERSITY | CenCIP & LUCRAM | Jonas Johansson | 2015-11-16
Five challenges
I. Capturing interdependencies between societal functions (SRA-Nordic contribution by Henrik Hassel et al.)
II. Modelling and simulation of interdependent critical
infrastructures (SRA-Nordic contribution by Linn Svegrup et al.)
III. Safety margins, recovery and resilience of critical
infrastructures (SRA-Nordic contribution by Finn Landegren et al.)
IV. Empirical data for cascading effects in critical infrastructures (SRA-Nordic contribution by Björn Arvidsson et al.)
V. Risk governance of critical infrastructures (SRA-Nordic contribution by Alexander Cedergren et al.)
SRA:E NORDIC 2015 - LUND UNIVERSITY | CenCIP & LUCRAM | Jonas Johansson | 2015-11-16
El
Fjärrvärme
Bränsle och drivmedel
Betalningssystem
Tillgång kontanter
Värdepappershandel
Försäkringar
Tillverkningsindustri
Akutsjukvård
Primärvård
Läkemedel- & Materialförsörjning
Omsorg om barn
Funktionshindrade
Äldrevård
Socialtjänst
Smittskydd
Telefoni (fast)
Telefoni (mobil)
Elektronisk kommunikation
Internet
Radiokommunikation Satellit / GNSS
Dagstidningar
Webbaserad information
MedierTV
Radio
Dricksvattenförsörjning
Avloppshantering
Renhållning
Väghållning
Distribution livsmedel
Primärproduktion livsmedel
Tillverkning livsmedel
Kontroll av livsmedel
Lokal ledning
Regional ledning
Nationell ledning
Polis
Räddningstjänst
Alarmeringstjänst (t.ex. SOS)
Tullkontroll
Bevaknings & säkerhet
Militärt försvar
Sjuk- & arbetslöshetsförsäkring
Flygtransport
Järnvägstransport
Sjötransport
Vägtransport
Kollektivtrafik
Kompetent personal/entreprenörer
Förskolor och skolor
Sjö
Liv och hälsa
Funktionalitet
Grundläggande värden
Samhällsviktig verksamhet
Teknisk infrastruktur
Allmänheten
Personal
Challenge 1 Interdependencies between societal functions
• Dependencies between societal
functions seems to be increasing
• The overall “societal system”
more tightly interconnected
• Trends such as globalisation,
urbanisation, and technological
development drivers for
efficiency but also introduces
new vulnerabilities and
changes the risk picture.
• The understanding of the
interconnectedness of these
functions and the mechanisms of
how consequences can spread
limited. Need for new approaches
and empirical data.
SRA:E NORDIC 2015 - LUND UNIVERSITY | CenCIP & LUCRAM | Jonas Johansson | 2015-11-16
Challenge 2 Modelling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructures
150 200 250 300 350
200
300
400
500
600
0
20
40
60
80
100
• Technical infrastructures, such as power systems, railways, air
transportation and telecommunication, form a subpart of critical
infrastructures.
• Here data of individual systems exist, however data of their
interdependencies and models of accounting for the “system-of-system”
behaviour of interdependent technical infrastructures lacking.
• From a Swedish governance perspective,
adequate mechanisms for
managing risk and vulnerabilities
from “system-of-system”
perspective lacking.
• Efforts needed to develop models
and simulation methods to inform
decisions from a more holistic
perspective.
SRA:E NORDIC 2015 - LUND UNIVERSITY | CenCIP & LUCRAM | Jonas Johansson | 2015-11-16
Challenge 3 Safety margins, recovery and resilience of critical infrastructures
• Technical infrastructures are inherently socio-technical by nature, the
infrastructures are designed, operated, maintained and restored by
humans.
• In general, research in this field tends to focus
rather narrowly on “everyday” incidents (based
on historical data) and technical aspects.
• To better grasp the resilience of infrastructures
more work is necessary towards their limits
towards large-scale disruptions, e.g. their
ability to recover functionality.
• Approaches needs to merge the pure technical
parts of the infrastructures with models able to
capture the capacity of the organisation in
responding to disruptions beyond normal.
SRA:E NORDIC 2015 - LUND UNIVERSITY | CenCIP & LUCRAM | Jonas Johansson | 2015-11-16
Challenge 4 Empirical data for cascading effects between critical infrastructures
• To support the research in the field of critical infrastructures, one important
aspect is the access to empirical data.
• In general, good quality data with respect to the consequences that arise
when infrastructure collapses are lacking. For example traditional accident
investigation methods do not focus on interdependencies.
• This type of data is essential to improve our understanding of how society is
dependent on the services infrastructures provide, how this picture has
changed and increase our understanding of the mechanisms behind
interdependencies leading to cascading effects.
1 2 3 4 5 60
5
10
15
20
Initiating event
1. Power supply
13. Agriculture
19. Public
2. Telecommunication
3. Water supply
5. Oil and gas
7. Health care
8. Education
9. Road transportation
10. Rail transportation
13. Agriculture
14. Business & Industry
15. Media
16. Financial
19. Public
13. Agriculture
14. Business & Industry
17. Governmental
18. Emergency response
19. Public 19. Public
SRA:E NORDIC 2015 - LUND UNIVERSITY | CenCIP & LUCRAM | Jonas Johansson | 2015-11-16
Challenge 5 Risk governance of critical infrastructures
• The operation and management of many critical infrastructures has become
divided between a larger set of stakeholders, resulting in a dispersion of
responsibility.
• In this institutionally fragmented setting, traditional risk management tools
are not always suitable to deal with risks in a feasible manner.
• No single stakeholder has the superior authority or overview to make and
implement holistic risk-reducing decisions.
• Research needs related to
stakeholders’ diverse
framings of risk, communication
challenges, sub-contracting and
cross-scale interactions.
SRA:E NORDIC 2015 - LUND UNIVERSITY | CenCIP & LUCRAM | Jonas Johansson | 2015-11-16
Centre for Critical Infrastructure
Protection Research (CenCIP)
• Newly formed centre of excellence at LU, 2015-2020 (MSB).
• Descriptive and normative research within three areas:
– Interdependencies and societal consequences
– A holistic view on terms, concepts and methods
– Governance, measuring and learning
SRA:E NORDIC 2015 - LUND UNIVERSITY | CenCIP & LUCRAM | Jonas Johansson | 2015-11-16