CRITICAL SKILLS RELATED TO TROPICAL CYCLONES (OPERATIONS AND RESEARCH)

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL* PERSPECTIVES

Russell L. Elsberry

*Nearly all of the U. S. Navy and U. S. Air Force M.S.-level education is at the Naval Postgraduate School. Most of the Ph.D.-level education is also at NPS. When these officers leave the service or retire, they frequently fill civilian positions in meteorology.

OFCM Mini-workshop addressing federal community critical skill shortages related to meteorology23 September 2009

BACKGROUND

Educational skill requirements for the M.S.-level curricula in meteorology/oceanography (METOC) for the U. S. Navy and in meteorology for the U. S. Air Force are established in curriculum reviews with senior officers in each service (see PPT 3).

Program modifications are then made to add, delete, or restructure the courses to fit into a course matrix (see PPT 4).

U. S. Navy course adjustments are difficult since they impact both meteorology and oceanography department courses.

U. S. Air Force required courses are less restrictive, but each officer has an assigned specialization to meet needs of his/her next duty station.

3

Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA

1.1. Understand principles of Understand principles of physical and dyn. prop. Of physical and dyn. prop. Of oceans and atm. Also an oceans and atm. Also an understanding of numerical understanding of numerical models and their processes.models and their processes.

2.2. Able to observe, assimilate, Able to observe, assimilate, analyze, interpret, predict ocean analyze, interpret, predict ocean and atmos. parameters and and atmos. parameters and conditions using field conditions using field experimentation, direct and experimentation, direct and remote sensing observational remote sensing observational techs, statistics, and analysis techs, statistics, and analysis and numerical models.and numerical models.

3.3. Critical thinking skills to solve Critical thinking skills to solve environ. challenging problems in environ. challenging problems in METOC related fields for the METOC related fields for the navy using scientific research navy using scientific research tech., tools, equip. with an tech., tools, equip. with an emphasis in one of three areas: emphasis in one of three areas:

AcousticsAcoustics Physical Oceanography Physical Oceanography MeteorologyMeteorology(specific needed skills in each listed)(specific needed skills in each listed)

4.4. Thesis requirement emphasizing Thesis requirement emphasizing operational applicability.operational applicability.

5.5. Understanding of GI&S and PTA.Understanding of GI&S and PTA.

6.6. Complete all NPS requirements Complete all NPS requirements for the Joint MS in Meteorology for the Joint MS in Meteorology and Oceanography.and Oceanography.

Draft Educational Skill RequirementsDraft Educational Skill Requirements(ESR’s) for 6401P-Code(ESR’s) for 6401P-Code

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Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA

Proposed Matrix for 373 Program Proposed Matrix for 373 Program 6401P Code6401P Code

CHALLENGES IN EDUCATING METOC OFFICERS

• Navy wants “generalist” officer able to serve in both meteorologist and oceanographer billets, so curriculum has many more courses than required for M.S. degree

• Navy also wants specialist capabilities to serve in positions such as Typhoon Duty Officers at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

• Some officer students do not have mathematical and physics background required for curriculum, and may be several years removed from college

• Computer skills (if any) limited to “games” versus scientific programming

LBFS&I-New Sensors-Gliders-UUVs

Products-Performance Surface

Production-New models-GI&S

Decision support

Master Engagement

C-1 School

A School

Master

Journeyman

Apprentice

MPN

CIV

CIV

CIV/MPN

Functionality of METOC officer changes in new concept of operations:1. Becomes an interpreter, monitor, or quality controller of (automated) products

generated by numerical forecast systems.2. The fundamental change is to a probablistic approach to allow the decision-

maker to quantify risk (exception may be on mesoscale space/time).

LBFS&I-New Sensors-Gliders-UUVs

Products-Performance Surface

Production-New models-GI&S

Decision support

Master Engagement

C-1 School

A School

Master

Journeyman

Apprentice

MPN

CIV

CIV

CIV/MPN

Educational implications of new concept of operations:1. Bottom tier implies a fundamental understanding of in situ and remote-sensing

observations in both atmosphere and ocean.2. Tier-1 forecast implies a fundamental understanding of numerical model

forecast systems, including data assimilation and ensemble prediction systems

LBFS&I-New Sensors-Gliders-UUVs

Products-Performance Surface

Production-New models-GI&S

Decision support

Master Engagement

C-1 School

A School

Master

Journeyman

Apprentice

MPN

CIV

CIV

CIV/MPN

Educational implications of new concept of operations:1. Tier-2 implies a fundamental knowledge of the performance (capabilities,

accuracies, limitations) of all forecast system products (atmosphere and ocean)2. Tier-3 implies a knowledge of how the accuracy of the forecast system product

will be a factor in the decisions of all customers

GENERALIST EDUCATION IN NEW CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS

• Clearly statistics is of high importance – should differential or partial differential equations be a requirement for an interpreter of numerical model products?

•An implicit assumption is that the numerical model guidance is so accurate (at least in the middle latitudes) that human intervention will be required only in extreme forecast busts

• Are midlatitude (quasi-geostrophic) dynamics courses necessary?

• Are midlatitude synoptic meteorology classes necessary?

•Does the METOC officer have to know fundamentals of thenumerical model, e.g., finite difference schemes, spectralmethods, parameterization of physical processes, three- orfour-dimensional variational data assimilation?

GENERALIST EDUCATION AT THE NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL

• Continue to teach thermodynamics, dynamics of midlatitudes, and two midlatitude synoptic meteorology courses as have always taught, except synoptic laboratory exercises are computer-generated (click and interpret).

• Numerical model course (required for U. S. Navy but optional for U. S. Air Force) is a survey of the atmospheric model forecast system, which now includes an introduction to ensemble prediction

Justification: Even if the generalist position is only to interpret numerical model products, the decision maker (Ship Captain, Base Commander, Fleet Admiral) will only accept guidance if the METOC officer is perceived to have credibility based on education, understanding “how the atmosphere works”, and how it affects the mission.

SPECIALIST EDUCATION AT THE NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL

• Tropical meteorology is taught (three hour lecture, four hour laboratory) as a “sponsor-required course” for the U. S. Navy and optional for the U. S. Air Force

• Tropical cyclones are about two-thirds of lectures and all of the laboratory exercises, and the approach is primarily how do tropical cyclones differ from extratropical cyclones covered in the core synoptic course

• Key tropical cyclone-related topics such as remote sensing observation systems, numerical models and statistics are covered somewhat in other courses

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTINGIN THE FUTURE

• Forecasts will be extended to medium-range and beyond– Forecasts will be extended from 5 days to 7 days

– Intraseasonal (10-30 day) forecasts of tropical cyclone eventswill become available

– Seasonal forecasts will be primarily dynamically based rather than statistical, and more focus will be on regions (rather than basins) and on likely number of landfalls

• Intensity, structure, and precipitation forecast will (necessarily) be probablistic rather than deterministic

•More specific impacts (storm surge, flooding) forecasts will be required, but the issue will be how to convey risk and uncertainty in the warnings

RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONES - I

• Much improved global models, both for deterministic and ensemble forecasts, and for providing initial and lateral boundary conditions for regional tropical cyclone models

– Higher horizontal and vertical resolution

– Improved physics, especially for convection

– Improved data assimilation in the tropics

– Coupling with the ocean, especially for intraseasonal

• Much improved regional models for intensity and precipitation– Higher horizontal resolution

– Improved physics, especially for boundary layer and convection

– Improved data assimilation on the mesoscale

– Coupling with the ocean

– Multiple skillful regional models for consensus forecasting

RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONES - II

• Impact models (deterministic and ensemble)– Storm surge plus wind wave

– River and bay flooding

– Localized damaging winds

• Societal and economic research on tropical cyclones– Development of effective warning system strategies for a diverse society

– Understanding and improving appropriate response to warnings

– Improved data assimilation on the mesoscale

– Effective mitigation and preparedness strategies

RESEARCHER SHORTFALLS

• Lack of global model developers (Dr. Simon Chang, NRL)– Universities are not doing this kind of research

• Data assimilation on the mesoscale

• Convection and boundary layer in high winds

• Ocean data assimilation and prediction for strongly forced conditions