PPENDIX

Critical Timelines of Real-World

Companies

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Appendix178

he following pages offer a selection of critical timelines (CTLs) that represent different companies as players across different markets-as-a-game. each CTL identifies the game dimension in terms of the geography of the game and the process. The process includes product,

technology or innovation, as defined from the discussion in the book — consumers do not buy products but functionalities or characteris-tics. For example, in the case of Starbucks, the process is the ‘coffee experience’ or for Geely, it is the technology acquired from Volvo. it could simply be the product, as in a can of pepsi, but a broader defini-tion facilitates a richer dataset of signals.

each CTL was constructed during the case preparation at the MBA Workshops and the team affiliations for each case are credited in the Acknowledgements. The cases are a representative sample of analysis and include Apple, Geely, HSBC, Microsoft, nissan, nokia, pepsi and Starbucks. in each case, the game dimension G is defined with respect to geography and process and a time period of five years. The objective is to identify a pattern in the signals and identify the near-rival — that competitor in the sum of competitors who is more likely to react first.

A game, G, occurs when player A acts and player B reacts. A sub-game, g, occurs when a sequence of moves appear reversed as player A reacts to player B. The sub-game can be observed in both the Microsoft and pepsi CTLs. The decision tree in the nissan case allows us to define an extensive form of the game as observed. The HSBC case includes the causality with the share price performance. Further examples of the casual link between CTLs and key performance indicators (Kpis) can be found on www.patrickmcnutt.com in the icon ‘eLearning and Games Academy’.

The pattern observed provides an insight into the player’s strategy set, that is, the sequence of moves in the market-as-a-game. if the pattern observed is only a pattern of price signals, a Bertrand pattern has been observed; if the pattern does not include price signals, a Cournot pattern is observed. The research commitment can be intense; over three days of gathering market intelligence, each group assembles the collected intelligence into a CTL and presents a hypothesis.

CHAPTER 1 Strategic Reasoning

TC

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CTLs oF ReAL-WoRLd CoMpAnieS 179

A1.1 — Apple vs RIM

APPLE RIM

JUNiPhone 3GS launched

JULiPhone 3G launched

JUNiPhone launched

JANiPhone announced

SEPBlackBerry 8820 Curve launched

MAYBlackBerry 8800 Curve launched

FEBBlackBerry 8800 Curve announced

JULBlackBerry 8820 Curve announced

OCTBlackBerry 9000 Bold launched

MAYBlackBerry 9000 Bold announced

NOVBlackBerry Storm announced

AUGBlackBerry Storm launched

2008

2009

2007599

399

199

199

199

299

299

49

199

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Appendix180

A1.2 — Geely vs TATA

GEELY TATA

JULAcquired Volvo for US$1.8 billion

MAYSet target price of IG at US$2,250 at Beijing Motor Show

JANUnveiled Nano electric car in the United Kingdom

NOVLaunched Eagle Cross Series

APRAnnounced the Gleagle and IG concept at Shanghai Motor Show

APRLaunched Eagle Panda minicar at Beijing Auto Show

SEPAnnounced plans to sell Nano in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. More than 50,000 cars sold since. Launched Nano Plus.

APRFirst Nano car sold

MARSought injunction to prevent imitation of Nano

MARJaguar Land Rover acquired

JANNano unveiled at Ninth Auto Expo in Delhi

MAYSigned 90-year land lease to build Nano car plan

MAYAnnounced Nano electric car at Geneva Motor Show 2012

2009

2010

2007

2008

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CTLs oF ReAL-WoRLd CoMpAnieS 181

A1.3 — Nissan vs Toyota (Decision tree)

L

II

I

LL

I = Infiniti (Nissan)L = Lexus (Toyota)KPI = 1Concept car announced in April 2012

Introduced concept car

Launched carCV ≠ 0

Launched car earlier

Retained production

plan

Entered market

0 No Entry

2

Entered market

–1 No Entry

0

Entered market (FMA)

2

No reactionCV = 0

No Entry

0

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Appendix182

A1.4 — Nokia vs Samsung

NOKIA SAMSUNG

MAR–APRAnnounced acquisition of Novarra and MetaCarta for mobile Web browser and location search services

APRLaunched free DRM with music

OCTOvi store launched

JUNLaunched N1208 at RMB269

NOVLaunched N1202 at RMB300

MAYLaunched N1200 at RMB350

MAYAnnounced expansion into Internet business

OCT–JUL 2008Acquired Navteq for digital mapping data

FEBAnnounced new mobile operating system, MeeGo

AUG–OCTAcquired Loudeye for online music service

OCTLaunched N1112 at RMB499

SEPLaunched N1110 at RMB699

FEBLaunched C128 at RMB690

NOVAnnounced entry into low-end market in China

MAR 13Launched C168 at RMB440

SEPGalaxy S series launched

MAYApps store launched

FEBLaunched E1100 at RMB299

JANLaunched E1100 at RMB320

2010

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

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CTLs oF ReAL-WoRLd CoMpAnieS 183

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Appendix184

A1.6 — Microsoft vs Google

Sub-game joins main game

B

Microsoft teamed up with Nokia to offer Windows phone

A

Google signalled acquisition of Motorola

B

New product development by Microsoft: Windows phone

A

Goggle developed Android platform and offered it as a free product; formed Android alliance

B

Microsoft launched first-generation mobile operating system

Nokia fighting ship? Moonshot?

Newborn

g1 SUB-GAMESG1 MAIN GAMES

A

Google joined the search business

B

Microsoft entered search business

A

Google extended services and features

B

Microsoft joined alliance with Yahoo!

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CTLs oF ReAL-WoRLd CoMpAnieS 185

WAHAHA PEPSI

A1.7 — Pepsi vs Wahaha (Game G1)

Launched new healthy drinks range

Launched RTD Tea

RTD Tea production ceased

Announced 100 new stores

Invested $1.5 billion in beverages

Finalized alliance with Tingyi

Announced alliance with Tingyi

Invested $2.5 billion over three years

Invested $1 billion in new plants

Launched new Tropicane Juices

2012

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

G1

G2

5.8%

6.0%

5.6%

5.1%

4.4%

?%

0%0%

7.7%

7.2%

6.7%

?%

Percentage ofmarket share

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Appendix186

A1.8 — Pepsi vs Coca-Cola (Sub-game g1)

PEPSI COCA-COLA

Announced sponsorship of 2008 Olympics

$2.4 billion bid for Huiyuen blocked

Announced investments of $3 billion

Sponsorship of EXPO 2010

Invested $4 billion over 3 years

Construction of 41st bottling plant completed

New management structure

Announced alliance with Tingyi

Finalized alliance with Tingyi

Invested $2.5 billion over three years

Sponsored US pavillion at EXPO 2010

Invested $1 billion in new plants

Announced sponsorship of Chinese team at 2008 Olympics

Percentage ofmarket share

2012

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

5.8%

6.0%

5.6%

5.1%

4.4%

?%

15.1

%15

.8%

16.3

%15

.4%

15.1

%?%

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CTLs oF ReAL-WoRLd CoMpAnieS 187

A1.9 — Starbucks vs Nestlé

STARBUCKS NESTLÉ

20 SEPVerismo launched at US$199–399

FEBVUE signalled at US$130–700

FEBPixie launched at US$229

Launched four machines for the first time

Coffee, capsule focus signalled

Nestlé is already in the instant coffee and machine business

Zenius, Aguila launched

JUNK-Cups launched

15 MARVerismo signalled

AUGK-Cups signalled

29 JANSold K-Cups via Green Mountain

FEBVIA instant coffee launched

FEBSchultz rejoined as CEO and signalled focus on innovation

2012

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

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