Cross-country paper on the theme of Environment

World Conference on South Asia: Democracy,

Sustainable Development and Peace

Regional Overview

Physical Features Social and Cultural Patterns Economy

Physical FeaturesPhysical Features

South Asia houses some of the world’s largest river systems

Fresh water: Most important natural resource shared between nations

Significant variation in spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall

Social and Cultural PatternsSocial and Cultural Patterns

Birthplace of popular socio-cultural groups, shelter for immigrants.

Diversity in terms of religion, language, ethnicity, traditions, values, culture and the way of life.

Out of the 7 Nations, two are predominantly Hindu, four are predominantly Muslim, two are predominantly Buddhist

The diversity demands a multifaceted approach to look at development and the various challenges

EconomyEconomy

Figure: share of different sector on South Asian economy and their growth rate

Source: ADB 2010

Key Environmental Issues

Land Degradation Water Stress

Transboundary water resources management

Land DegradationLand Degradation

Country Sq kilomete

rs

% Territor

y

% Global

degrading area

% Total populatio

n

Affected people

Afghanistan

7656 1.17 0.025 2.56 671770

Bangladesh

68422 47.52 0.199 49.12 72728775

Bhutan 27011 57.47 0.073 54.99 1332662

India 592498 18.02 1.751 16.50 177437809

Nepal 54704 38.85 0.182 48.93 13332932

Pakistan 20644 2.57 0.073 3.58 5838072

Sri Lanka 21057 32.09 0.060 25.62 4788637

Source: Bai ZG 2008

Statistics of land degradation for the south Asian countries

Land DegradationLand Degradation Primary Drivers:

Poor Agricultural Practices: intensive use of chemical fertilizers, non-arable agriculture, increasing livestock population

Increase in Irrigation: leads to water logging and top soil erosion and over extraction of water renders the land in the downstream saline

Poor policy regime: imposition of taxes/subsidies has facilitated land degradation at certain places

Industrialization and deforestation

Water StressWater Stress

Indicators GBM Basi

n

Indus Basi

n

Available water resources (m3 per capita per year) 3473 1329

Total water use (billion m3 per year) 304 257

Available Water resources (billion m3 per year) 2025 287

Access to Improved Source of Drinking Water (AISDW) (percent of population)

83 87

Wastewater volume (billion m3 per year) 92.0 54.7

Vegetation cover (percent of basin area) 20.0 39.1

GDP (PPP) US$ per capita 1807 1002

Population (million people) 582.9 215.8

Access to Improved Sanitation Facility (AISF) (percent of population)

40.0 51.8Source: Compiled from MS Babel, S M Wahid 2009

Statistics for water resources for the GBM and Indus basins

Transboundary water resources management

Issues in the GBM Basin can be divided into three broad categories: sharing of river waters cooperative development of water resources sharing of data and information on common rivers

to facilitate flood forecasting and water quality control

Conflicting interests must be resolved by the integrated approach towards the management of transboundary water resources

Climate Change and South Asia

Observed Climate Change Future Impacts

Observed Climate Change

Country Change in temperature Change in precipitation

Bangladesh

Increasing trend of about 1oC in May and 0.5 oC in November from 1985 to 1998

Decadal rain anomalies above long term averages since 1960s

India 0.68 oC increase per century with increasing trends in annual mean temperature and warming more pronounced during post monsoon and winter

Increase in extreme rains in north-west during summer monsoon in recent decades and lower number of rainy days along east cost.

Nepal 0.09 oC increase per year in Himalayas and 0.04 oC in Terai region with more in winter

No distinct long-term trends in precipitation records for 1948-1994

Pakistan 0.6-1.0 oC increase in mean temperature in coastal areas since early 1900s

10-15% decrease in coastal belt and hyper arid plains and increase in summer and winter precipitation over the last 40 years in northern Pakistan

Sri Lanka 0.016 oC increase per year between 1961 to 90 over entire country and 2 oC increase per year in central highlands

An increase trend in February and decrease trend in JuneSource: Cruz et al. 2007

Future Impacts

Warming would be significant in Himalayan Highlands including the Tibetan Plateau and arid regions of Asia (IPCC 2007 )

Increase in occurrence of extreme weather events is projected in South Asia (Lal 2003)

Inter-annual variability of daily precipitation would increase in the Asian summer monsoon (Lal et al. 2000; Giorgi and Bi 2005).

By 2050, the annual runoff in the Brahmaputra is projected to decline by 14 percent and the Indus by 27 percent (IPCC 2001).

Challenges in key sectors

Water Agriculture and Food Security Health Social Issues including

population dislocation

Water The key challenge would be to balance variable

water supplies with accelerating water demands.

Country Climate-change Priorities Scale and Magnitude

Priority Focus Areas

Afghanistan Glacier melting in the Himalayas

Regional Himalayan Hindu Kush

Lake outburst Local to national Hill and mountain areas

Floods and droughts National to regional Helmand and Kabul basins

Bangladesh Floods National to regional Ganges, Brahmaputra, Meghna basins

Increase in natural disasters National to regional Coastal zones

Saltwater intrusion Local Coastal zones

Bhutan Glacier melting in the Himalayas

Regional Himalayan Hindu Kush

Lake outburst Local to national Hill and mountain areas

Floods National to regional Ganges tributary basins

Droughts Local to national Throughout

Water Resources in South Asia: Climate-change issue and Priority Areas

Contd….

Country Climate-change Priorities Scale and Magnitude

Priority Focus Areas

India Glacier melting in the Himalayas

Regional Himalayan Hindu Kush

Floods National to regional Ganges, Brahmaputra, Meghna basins

Droughts Local to national Throughout

Increase in natural disasters (cyclones)

National to regional Coastal zones

Saltwater intrusion Local Coastal zones

Maldives Increase in natural disasters (cyclones and sea-level surges); loss and land mass

Local to national Himalayan Hindu Kush

Nepal Glacier melting in the Himalayas

Regional and national

Himalayan Hindu Kush

Lake outburst Local to national Hill and mountain areas

Floods National to regional Ganges tributary basins

Droughts Local to national Throughout

Saltwater intrusion Local to provisional Coastline

Wetland desiccation and degradation

Local to national The Ramsar Sites

Water Resources in South Asia: Climate-change issue and Priority Areas (Contd.)

Contd….

Country Climate-change Priorities Scale and Magnitude

Priority Focus Areas

Pakistan Glacier melting in the Himalayas

Regional Himalayan Hindu Kush

Increased water scarcity and droughts

Local to national Indus basin

Saltwater intrusion Local Coastal zones

Sri Lanka Increase in natural disasters (cyclones and sea-level surges)

Local to national Coastal zones

Water Resources in South Asia: Climate-change issue and Priority Areas (Contd.)

Source: SARSDD 2009

Agriculture and Food Security The changing hydrological characteristics of the

extreme events will affect agricultural production Sea-level rise would trigger inundation and changes in

the sediment balance and salinity profile of coastal areas

The Terrai plains, which constitute 43% of the total cultivated land, would be severely impacted by recurring natural disasters.

The economy of Nepal where agriculture employs 80% of the population will be badly hit

Sri Lanka’s rice output would be reduced by 5.91% with a temperature increase of 0.5°C.

Agriculture and Food Security

Country Farm Area

(1,000ha)

Output per Hectare

(US$)

Output (US$ mil)

Afghanistan

7,827 313 2,448

Bangladesh 8,429 1,355 11,421

India 170,115 777 132,140

Nepal 3,294 728 2,399

Pakistan 22,120 856 18,935

Sri Lanka 1,916 1,808 3,465

Estimates of Climate change related Impacts onAgricultural Production by 2080

Source: Cline 2007

Health

Key determinants of health: clean air and water, disease vectors, and the availability of food would be impacted

Increase in the frequency of floods would have significant direct and induced health impacts.

Induced health impacts pose the greatest harm: major portions of South Asia have limited access to clean water and sanitation

Increases in diarrheal disease, cholera, dysentery, and typhoid are of specific concern (Morgan, O., M. Ahern, and S. Cairncross. 2005)

Social Issues including population dislocation Future changes in precipitation, sea level, glacial cover,

and incidence of extreme events could stall the progress made in achieving the MDGs

The rural poor whose livelihoods are based on agriculture will be directly impacted

Households dependent upon pastoral lands for livelihoods would be the worst hit

Climate change may render about 125 million migrants, comprising about 75 million from Bangladesh and the remaining from densely populated coastal regions as well as other vulnerable parts of India homeless by the end of this century (S.C. Rajan, 2008).

Social Issues including population dislocation

Area of LECZ

Population in LECZ

Urban Population in

LECZ

Fraction of Urban Population in LECZ in Cities

Exceeding 5(square

km)

Bangladesh

54,461 65,524,048 15,428,668 33%

India 81,805 63,188,208 31,515,286 58%

Pakistan 22,197 4,157,045 2,227,118 92%Source: http://sedac.ciesin.org, accessed on 27/12/2010

Summary of Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) statistics for countries in South Asia

Devising a framework for regional Co-operation on Adaptation

Co-operation framework on environmental issues

Shortcomings Lessons to be learnt

Co-operation framework on environmental issues Three intergovernmental organizations:

South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) South Asia Cooperative Environment Programme (SACEP) International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

(ICIMOD)

Periodic meetings of the SAARC Environment Ministers have been held to enhance regional cooperation

Shortcomings

Environmental issues have occupied an important position in SAARC summits but no commensurate outcomes

Mutual differences between the member states was acknowledged during the 16th summit

Projects have been identified, but implementation is slow - visible outputs are yet to be seen from the Coastal Zone management Centre in Maldives (2005) and the Forestry centre in Bhutan (2008)

Lessons to be learnt

A clear strategy highlighting the possible areas of co-operation among the SAARC countries is required.

Measurable indicators to evaluate the goals should be initiated

The existing regional centres should ensure the completion of agreed initiatives

Initiatives should be made broad-based - professionals, the business community and the civil society must be included

Adaptation strategies for key sectors

Water Agriculture and Food

Security Health and Social

Development

Water Widening the knowledge base in terms of technology

and best practices TERI has been endorsed as the Knowledge Hub for Water

and Climate Change Adaptation in South Asia

Integrated water resource management (IWRM) Conjunctive use and management of surface and

groundwater The use of indigenous knowledge for water

management Risk Management capacity should be enhanced Improving Governance and facilitating Finance

Agriculture and Food Security Integration of land use policies with policies on

forest and water management Practicing Organic Agriculture Conserving Biodiversity National food security programmes should focus on

creating food grains buffer stock Strengthening food grain distribution Institutionalising regional food security programmes Formulation and implementation of appropriate

policies Improving Agricultural productivity

Health and Social Development

Activity Purpose

Awareness of the health implication of climate change

To improve policy and decision makers understanding of the implications of climate change and the need for strategic planning

Disease surveillance To improve government’s ability to detect and monitor injuries, environmental exposures, infectious diseases, and chronic diseases that are sensitive to climate change

Response capacity To improve the population-base public health awareness, interventions and health system capacity for climate-change sensitive issues and diseases

Assess current and future impact of climate change

To assess current health burden due to climate change and to project it into the future in order to inform policy directions

Engage in a Country and regional approach

To develop a plan with short-medium and long term country strategies and to integrate with regional strategies

Action Matrix for Climate Change in South Asia

Source: SARSDD 2009

References

ADB 2010Asia Development Outlook 2010Asian Development Bank

Bai ZG 2008Global assessment of land degradation and improvement. 1. Identification by remote sensing. Report 2008/01

Cruz RV, Harasawa H, Lal M, Wu S, Anokhin Y, Punsalmaa B, Honda Y, Jafari M, Li C, Huu N (2007) Asia. Climate change, 2007, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (eds) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 469–506

Giorgi F, Bi X (2005) Regional changes in surface climate interannual variability for the 21st century from ensembles of global model simulations. Geophys Res Lett 32:L13701. doi:10.1029/2005GL023002

IPCC. 2001. Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2001. Summary for Policymakers. Wembley, United Kingdom, September 24–29.

IPCC 2007Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Quin D, Manning M, Chen X, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor HL, Miller M (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1–996

Contd…

Lal M, Meehl GA, Arblaster JM (2000) Simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its intraseasonal variability. Reg Environ Change 1:163–179

Lal M (2003) Global climate change: India’s monsoon and its variability.J Environ Stud Policy 6:1–34

Morgan, O., M. Ahern, and S. Cairncross. 2005. Revisiting the Tsunami: Health Consequences of Flooding.PLoS Medicine 2, no. 6: 491–93.

MS Babel, SM Wahid 2009Freshwater Under Threat South Asia: Vulnerability Assessment of Freshwater Resources to Environmental ChangeUNEP, AIT

SARSDD 2009South Asia: Shared Views on Development and Climate ChangeSouth Asia Region Sustainable Development Department – The World Bank

S.C. Rajan, 2008Climate Migrants in South Asia: Estimates and Solutions – A report by GreenpeaceGreenpeace India Society