Crossroad roadmap ict2010

National Technical University of Athens

(Coordinator)(Coordinator)

Tech4i2 Limited European Projects & Management Agency

University Koblenz-Landau Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission

David Osimo, Yannis CharalabidisDavid Osimo, Yannis Charalabidis

ICT 2010 Networking SessionBrussels, September 27th, 2010

Society increasingly interconnected, flexible, fast-evolving, unpredictable

Governance often silos-based, linear, obscure, hierarchical, over-simplified

Policies Health R&D Social

Disciplines

Economics

Mathematics

ICT

Actors Government

Citizens Industry

Brussels, September 27th, 2010 2

More people involved

More accurate analytical, modeling and simulation tools

More data available

2010

2030


Model-based Model-based collaborative collaborative governancegovernance

Data-Data-powered powered collective collective

intelligence intelligence and actionand action

Government Government service service utilityutility

Science base of ICT Science base of ICT enabled governanceenabled governance


State of the art: State of the art: research pushresearch push

Future Future scenarios: scenarios:

demand pulldemand pullGapsGaps

GrandGrand challenges challenges (draft)(draft)

Research Research challengechallenge

ss


ss

Research Research roadmap roadmap

(final)(final)


State of the art: State of the art: research pushresearch push

Future Future scenarios: scenarios:

demand pulldemand pullGapsGaps

GrandGrand challenges challenges (draft)(draft)


ss


ss

Research Research roadmap roadmap

(final)(final)


Toda’sy policy modeling:Large human effort > only on major policy decisions (e.g. REACH directive); using mainly econometric models and overlooking human behaviour; unable to account for human behavior and tipping points. Social simulation and agent-based models are marginal, black-box, fragmented and single-purpose; built by domain computational science specialist, at high cost for involving lateral domain experts or interested stakeholders. Progress in modeling software has not matched advances in computing power (Post).Designing, reviewing and updating formal models from qualitative and quantitative data is costly.


Integrated, composable and reusable modelsmodels composability and interoperability (between software and modelling methods) to build on existing modelsShort term research: definition of procedures for composition and repositories Long term research: model interoperability and SOA / GRID

Collaborative modellingintuitive model building and simulation tools to allow all stakeholders to take part in transparent formal modelling at large scaleShort term: transparent and intuitive modelling interfacesLong-term: mass-collaboration modelling framework

Easy access to information and knowledge creation methods of information elicitation that, during the overall model building and use processes, will help decision makers to learn how a certain system works and ultimately gain insights (knowledge) and understanding (apply the extracted knowledge from those processes) in order to successfully implement a desired policy.Short-term: interoperability of data sources, information elicitationLong-term: user-behavior information generation; mass-interactive learning environments


Model validationReliability of models plays a crucial role in policy modeling and simulation. A policy model should be developed for a specific purpose (or context) and its validity is to be determined with respect to that purpose (or context). Therefore, specific and integrated techniques and ICT tools are required to be developed for policy modeling, (conceptual and software validation )Short-term: Consolidation of validation techniquesLong-term: complex and large scale model validation; artificial intelligence incorporated in validation systems

Interactive simulation It allows a researcher to interactively control simulations and perform data analysis while avoiding many of the pitfalls associated with the traditional batch/post processing cycle. Short-term: UsabilityLong-term: Input/output system integration, Computational steering

Output analysis and knowledge synthesis the analysis and integration of feedbacks in modelling and simulation process Short-term: DOE for policy model simulation, ranking techniquesLong-term: sophisticated variance estimators, automated output analysis


Layer Research Challenge

Collaboration and Action User-generated simulation and gaming for public actionNew institutional design for collaborative governance

Analysis and representation

Collaborative visual analytics for policy-making Peer-to-peer public opinion mining

Data collection and validation

Federated dynamic identity management Real-time, high-quality, reusable open government data Privacy compliant participatory sensing for real-time policy design and evaluation

Lisa Simpson Bart Simpson

Conversation Today 2030

Action2030 2030


Privacy-compliant participatory sensing for real-time policy-making

Dramatically increasing the data availability for policy evaluation while maintaining privacy and ensuring policy inferenceShort term: combination of sensing with social network analysis, data quality verification, context verification; Long term: privacy by design; enhanced analytical techniques to respond to subtle events; data collaboration protocols

Real-time, high-quality, reusable open government data Simplifying and lowering costs of real-time open data publication, ensuring data quality and advanced privacy monitoringShort-term: data vocabularies; data curating tools; easy linked data publicationLong-term: on the fly data quality agreements, web of data, real-time validation and publication


Federated dynamic identity managementNecessary to ensure trustful collaboration, federated across country, with multiple levels of security for different services, relying on authentic sources, usable in private sector context. Short-term: Dynamic user-controlled data disclosure; culturally-dependent identity systems; trust negotiationLong-term: context dependent identity management

Peer-to-peer public opinion miningThe limits of human attention, combined to the existing simple interfaces available for browsing discussion and comments, often leads to low levels of engagement and flaming wars, driving to polarisation of arguments and enhanced risks of conflicts. Short-term research: computer-generated cross-language policy corpora; algorithms for policy statistical analysis; comment recommendation algorithmsLong-term research: integration with social network analysis; audiovisual mining; peer-to-peer usable opinion mining tools;


Intuitive, collaborative visual analytics of data for policy-makingVisual analytics is particularly effective when dealing with complex and non-predictable patterns, such as those related to assessing and anticipating public policy impact, but is not formalised in the policy contextShort-term research: Collaborative platform display; Interaction between visualization and models; Visualization infrastructures for policy modelling issues Long-term research: Bias identification; learning adaptive algorithm for users’ intent; intuitive affordable interfaces for citizens

User-generated simulation and gaming tools for public actionSimulation and serious gaming impact on personal incentives to action and showing long-term and systemic effects of individual choices, but lack open scenarios based on personal and policy decision as well as usabilityShort-term: kit-based citizens-controlled simulation and gaming; integration with policy modelsLong-term: augmented reality in policy gaming and simulation

New institutional design of collaborative governance

GC 3GC 3

GC 1

GC 2

State

Citizens

Citizens


Present:Traditional public services have not delivered on their promise for time,

quality, cost, or overall return on investmentCitizens rarely have access to personalised services in the way they want Service design cannot tap into citizen or SME’s productivity. Services

practically remain the same as new service creation is hindered

Future:Services are converging and moving from the physical into the digital world,

universally accessible on any device from all social groupsGovernment clouds are overcoming interoperability, privacy and security

challenges and provide the base for high automation in public sectorsFuture Internet appears as a key enabler for new public service systems,

drastically altering productivity, speed, cost and overall quality

The 1-1-1 Concept:every service can be provided in one stop, one second, with one euro cost


Ubiquitous nature: electricity is available everywhere, if you have a proper line and device to connect

Usability: it is simple to connect to electricity network, provided you have an electric device with a standard plug (different from country to country, sometimes)

Federation: you don’t really know where / how energy is created within a complex network that cross borders, sectors

Co-generation: you can be a customer and a provider, at the same time

De-regulation: although Governments set the regulations and may own some utilities, the market is competitive

Multi-channel service provision

Simplicity, interoperability, inclusion

Public Clouds

Service co-creation

Service supply deregulation

See also “6 common characteristics of service utilities (Rappa, 2004)”: Necessity, Reliability, Usability, Utilisation, Scalability and Exclusivity.

Electricity ProvisionElectricity Provision Service Service ProvisionProvision


Digital public services value proposition for allReshape digital public services objectives, scope and means

Create a value proposition model for all stakeholders

User-driven innovation shaping Public ServicesService co-design, co-generation, mashing and deployment

Citizen generated ideas for new services

Change the “DNA” of Public ServicesCloud – based service provision, high automation, interoperability

Multichannel provision, internet of things

Services in one second, one stop, at one euro cost

Massive Public Information as a ServiceUtilisation of public information and knowledge


Present: Although a lot of solutions are being developed and applied, there is a lack of

systematisation of the domain, hindering re-use of practices, gradual refinement and evolution

Relations with neighboring domains are not explored, resulting in unnecessary duplications or lack of cooperation

Future: ICT-enabled governance is maturing into a well-established discipline,

integrating social sciences, management, operational research and ICT Classification of research approaches, applications, problems and solution

paths supports gradual evolution The research community is constantly updating the objectives and

challenges of the domain, utilising new ICT developments for the good of the society


Time

Impact

External Enhancement & Exploration

PopularisationWave 3

Industrial quality solutions. Communication and marketing towards broader communities. Substantiation of value.

Development and Extension

Internal Enhancement & Exploration

Wave 2Stabilisation of models and tools. Population of solution scenaria. Impact assessment and simulation. Training curriculum.

Concept Formulation

Foundational Principles Wave 1Ability to identify and describe problems and solutions. Research community establishment. Convergence on initial concepts.

TodayBrussels, September 27th, 2010 21

Formal methods and tools for categorising and analysing the concepts, the problems and solution paths in ICT-enabled governance

Metrics and assessment models, Decision Support, Modelling & Simulation Tools (supporting problem-solution relation, utilising BPM/BPR tools, vertical approaches)

Multi-disciplinary issues and relations with neighbouring domains

Continuous evolution of the domain to meet new societal challenges


Today: rank the research challenges by adding post-its; add new ones.

Until October 15th: rank and comment online via crossroad.uservoice.com Full draft roadmap available and commentable online at www.crossroad-eu.net

November 30th: publication of final roadmap


http://www.crossroad-eu.net/

Documents

Crossroad roadmap ict2010