CSLI Wrap-Up Meeting, Fall 2014

Review the processReview the findings

Analyze - Hypotheses

Questionnaire issues - questions

- Did some questions give you more problems than others? Clarity Public constantly asked for restatement Vagueness of what is being asked

Did the respondents seem to think that the questions were generally interesting?

Did the respondents think that the survey was too long or short?

Other suggestions?

Review the process - 1

Public receptivity Were you surprised by how easy/hard it was to obtain a

completion? Problems with phone numbers? Idle chatter from respondents? Bias among interviewers? Partial completions? Other suggestions

Review the process - 3

County: Right or Wrong Direction? Spring ‘00 to Fall ‘14

Fa '0

0

Sp

'01

Fa '0

1

Sp

'02

Fa '0

2

Sp

'03

Fa '0

3

Sp

'04

Fa '0

4

Sp

'05

Fa '0

5

Sp

'06

Fa '0

6

Sp

'07

Fa '0

7

Sp

'08

Fa '0

8

Sp

'09

Fa '0

9

Sp

'10

Fa '1

0

Sp

'11

Fa '1

1

Sp

'12

Fa '1

2

Sp

'13

Fa '1

3

Sp

'14

Fa '1

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

55

62

66

60 61 62

51

58 58

53

5755

51 52 51 5052

47

52 52

49 50

47

43

50 49 50 50 49

24 23

15

26

21

25

34

31

24

2927 26

2927

33 32 31

28 27 28 28 28

32

41

36

3335

33

38

20

15

19

14

18

1315

12

19 1816

1820 21

16 17 17

25

21 20

23 22 22

1614

1816 17

13

Right Wrong Unsure

Right/Wrong Direction –County, State, Nation, Respondent

Levels Dem. Rep. Unaffiliated

  S ‘14 F ‘14 S ‘14 F ‘14 S ‘14 F ‘14

County 56 56 48 41 44 58

State 48 41 18 8 24 34

Nation 40 31 15 7 21 28

Fall '12 Spring '13 Fall '13 Spring '14 Fall '140

10

20

30

40

50

60

36

24

10

2723

36 35 3531

27

50 49 50 50 49

Nation State County

Most Important Problem: Fall 2007 to Fall 2014

Fall '07 Spring '08

Fall '08 Spring '09

Fall '09 Spring '10

Fall '10 Spring '11

Fall '11 Spring '12

Fall '12 Spring '13

Fall '13 Spring Fall '140

10

20

30

40

50

60

8

23

38

48

33

36 36 35

48

30

27

23

16 1618

12 1210

8 7 8 9 10

57 8 8

6

12 1110

64

68

6 6 68

4

75

9 86

17 16

1210

12 1113

119

17 1719 19

22

27

3 42 1 2

4 3 3 4

9 911

17

8

5

Economy Education Crime / drugs

Taxes – too high Govt. inefficient, corrupt

Economic Conditions: (% excellent+good)County vs. Maryland and USA (Fall ‘07 to F ’14)

F '0

6

S '0

7

F '0

7

S '0

8

F'0

8

S '0

9

F '0

9

S '1

0

F '1

0

S '1

1

F '1

1

S '1

2

F '1

2

S '1

3

F '1

3

S '1

4

F '1

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

71 71 69

5549 46 48

44 4549 48 51 48 49

53 5044

27 30 31 32 35 3338

33 30

40 40

28

511 11 11 11 9

13 1612 14

2116

County State Federal

Economic Conditions: (% excellent+good)County vs. Maryland and USA (Fall ‘07 to F ’14)

Growth Unemployment Inflation Personal Sit.

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-3-9

-43

-2

22

9

-46

6

2622

-38

147

-13

-43

23

1

-17

-52

3

15

5

-42

1211 8

-38

7

Fa '11 Sp '12 Fa '12 Sp '13 Fa '13 Sp '14 Fa '14

Condition S ‘14 F ‘14 Under

$75,000

$75,000+

Taxes are too high in relation to the government services provided

65 74 79 72

Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living

57 63 72 55

Hard to afford the cost of education -- 45 47 40Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate

26 40 46 29

Hard to afford cost of food and groceries

-- 33 45 22

Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently

36 33 23 44

Facing the possibility of unemployment

16 17 22 13

Found a new or better job recently 14 12 10 14

Income Groups and Economic Indicators

  Support

Oppose

Unsure/NA

Doubling the number of high schools over the next 20 years, but making them much smaller than current high schools

54 32 14

Removing speed cameras and losing $300,000 in county income 44 47 9Increasing the county’s income tax rate to help create a high school in Crofton

28 62 10Increasing the salary of the next county executive from $130,000 to $142,000

19 74 7

State and County Proposals – Support, Oppose, Unsure

The County's storm water fee, which pays for repairs of storm pipes and waterways to decrease pollution, will generate $17 million next year and $22 million the following year. Do you feel this fee – currently costing $85 a year for a single family home - is too low, too high, or just right?

Too low5

About

right46

Too high38

NA11

Which option to you prefer – cutting property taxes by 3 percent, or adding more county services related to education or public safety

Cut taxe

s52

Add servic

es41

Unsure4

NA3

State and County Proposals – Support, Oppose, Unsure

The County's storm water fee, which pays for repairs of storm pipes and waterways to decrease pollution, will generate $17 million next year and $22 million the following year. Do you feel this fee – currently costing $85 a year for a single family home - is too low, too high, or just right?

Too low5

About

right46

Too high38

NA11

Which option to you prefer – cutting property taxes by 3 percent, or adding more county services related to education or public safety

Cut taxe

s52

Add servic

es41

Unsure4

NA3

Dem Rep Unaffil. Liberal Moderate Conservative

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

26

-10

5

44

24

-24

Storm Water Support by Party/Ideology

State and County Proposals – Support, Oppose, Unsure

Which option to you prefer – cutting property taxes by 3 percent, or adding more county services related to education or public safety

Cut taxe

s52

Add servic

es41

Unsure4

NA3

Dem Rep Unaffil. Liberal Moderate Conservative

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

11

-40

-6

4 1

-36

Level of Info – Gov/CE

Level of Information about Candidates’ Stands in Race for GovernorVery Somewhat Not very NA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

38 39

21

2

33

40

24

2

4339

16

2

37

27

37

0

Overall Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated

Very Somewhat Not very0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20

3444

18

33

47

23

40 36

13 17

70

Overall Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated

Governor

County Executive

Vote Choice/Likely WinnerGovernor

County ExecutiveI will vote for…

Percentage

Vote for Brown

22

Vote for Hogan

51

Someone else 2Undecided 24Won’t vote for any

1

Won’t say, NA 1Winner will be… PercentageAnthony Brown 53Larry Hogan 23Unsure or no answer

24

I will vote for… Percentage

Vote for George Johnson

26

Vote for Steve Schuh 40Undecided 32Won’t vote for any/NA

2

Total 100Winner will be… PercentageGeorge Johnson 25Steve Schuh 41Unsure or no answer

34

Party Strength/Defections

  Dem Strong

Dem Somew

hat Strong

Dem Not

Strong

Rep Strong

Rep Somew

hat Strong

Rep Not

Strong

Overall 13 (30) 14 (33) 15 (35) 14 (39) 17 (43) 6 (16)

Hogan 6 24 58 89 82 35

Brown 72 46 8 2 7 5

Undecided

19 26 31 9 12 60

Schuh 9 14 34 74 68 40

Johnson 70 39 30 7 4 10

Undecided

17 46 34 19 26 50

Governor

County Executive

Governor FactorOveral

lBrown Voters

Hogan Voters

Undecided

Taxes 24 11 31 20Economy (jobs, general) 12 10 14 9Background, Experience 9 5 7 4Education 8 17 1 11Ethics/Honesty/Integrity 8 5 10 11Party 8 20 5 4Broad vision/plan 6 8 3 13

Main factor in deciding vote…

County Executive Factor Overall Johnson Schuh Undecided

Taxes 25 10 35 23Background, Experience 12 16 11 10Ethics/Honesty/Integrity 10 8 11 10Party 10 18 10 2Education 9 16 3 10Broad vision/plan 8 7 7 12Economy 5 5 4 5

Main Factor Overall: Gov/CE

Taxe

s

Econ

omy

(jobs

, gen

eral

)

Backg

roun

d, E

xper

ienc

e

Educ

atio

n

Ethi

cs/H

ones

ty/In

tegr

ityPa

rty

Broad

visi

on/p

lan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

24

129 8 8 8 6

25

5

129 10 10 8

Main Factor Governor/County Exec

Govr Cty Exec

Main Factor Comparison: Gov/CE

Taxes

Economy (jobs, general)

Background, ExperienceEducation

Ethics/Honesty/Integrity Party

Broad vision/plan0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

11 10

5

17

5

20

810

5

16 16

8

18

7

31

14

7

1

10

53

35

4

11

3

11 107

Brown Johnson Hogan Schuh

Party Strength/Defections

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

6

24

58

89

82

35

72

46

8

27 5

19

2631

912

60

Hogan Brown Undecided

Democrats Republicans

30%

33%

35%

39%

43%

16%

Presidential job approvalFall 2007 to Fall 2013

F '07 S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S 12 F '12 S '13 F '13 S '14 F '1420

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

35

30

25

52

47 47

42

47

37

4244 44

40 39

3232

28

24

61

54

47

43

47

40

45

50 49

4345

40

CSLI Gallup

Presidential Job Approval by Party Registration

Fall 2009 to Fall 2014

Fa '09 Sp '10 Fa '10 Sp '11 Fa '11 Sp '12 Fa '12 Sp '13 Fa '13 Sp '14 Fa '140

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

72 70

61

7067

7376 75

7166

5354 53

33

57

47

34 34

46

37 35 36

17

24 24

18

712 11 9 9 10 9

Dem Unaffil. Rep

Exercise: Develop Hypotheses1. Identify a dependent variable – attitude, preference

2. Identify an independent variable – a social/demographic characteristic

3. Specify a likely relationship between the two based on a “theory” or hunch

you have about people and attitudes