CT5 Highlights Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks

EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment”

4th Annual Meeting – Dourdan France 8-12 December 2008

WP11. Model performance assessment and initial fields for scenarios

Objectives

To determine, how well biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BOGCMs) are able to reproduce carbon cycle observations from the real world with respect to temporal and spatial distributions

To refine criteria for model performance with respect to observations and other model

To establish a quality check for the initial conditions for future scenarios with BOGCMs

Common database for model output

In FP6-CARBOOCEAN:

5 models : NCAR, MPIM, IPSL, U.Bergen, (Hadley)

So far in C4MIP, only global CO2, ocean/land C-fluxes, … as in Friedlingstein et al. 2006

All 2D, 3D variables, same format, on a dods server

Model_Name Simulation_Name DICAlkFeNO3Phy, Phy2, …Zoo, Zoo2, ……..

(annual mean from 1860 to 2100, monthly means for 1890-1900, 1980-2010, 2090-2100)

D11.9 Extended Earth system model data set storage 1985-2009: monthly BOGCM data sets for surface ocean pCO2, atmospheric pCO2, DIC, Cant , Alk, CO3

2-, pH, O2, PO43-, NO3

-, primary production POC, export production (POC, CaCO3, opal), salinity, temperature, sea ice cover, topography, grid information; repeat comparison analysis for pCO2, Cant (month 42)

Birgit Schneider et al.

D11.9 Extended Earth system model data set storage 1985-2009: monthly BOGCM data sets for surface ocean pCO2, atmospheric pCO2, DIC, Cant , Alk, CO3

2-, pH, O2, PO4

3-, NO3-, primary production POC, export production (POC, CaCO3, opal), salinity,

temperature, sea ice cover, topography, grid information; repeat comparison analysis for pCO2, Cant (month 42)

Modern Annual-mean CO2 air-sea Fluxes

- Atmospheric pCO2 (Cadule et al. in prep)

Models : IPSL-old, IPSL, HadCM3

D 11.7 Atmospheric pCO2 comparison model/observations. (Month 42)

Evaluation: Model Intercomparison

- Atmospheric pCO2 (Cadule et al. in prep)

Models : IPSL-old, IPSL, HadCM3

CO2 at MLO vs. SSTnino3 or others

Jerry Tjiputra et al.

BCM-C

D 11.8 Analysis of the decadal variability in the ocean biogeochemical models and of the comparability model/observations for DIC, O2, nutrients, and further carbon cycle tracers. (Month 48)

Birgit Schneider et al.

D 11.8 Analysis of the decadal variability in the ocean biogeochemical models and of the comparability model/observations for DIC, O2, nutrients, and further carbon cycle tracers. (Month 48)

Natural variability and trends in oceanic oxygenImminent ocean acidificationLong-term climate and ocean acidification commitmentProductivity

Natural variability and trends in oceanic oxygen

IntroductionMethodsResultsConclusions & Outlook

20001960

Global A16N

Optical Depth

∆O2

1960 2000

∆O2

• Volcanic perturbations in O2 penetrate the top 500 m and persist several years.

• Largest O2 changes at 400m in the late nineties -> Cumulative impact from several

earlier eruptions.

• Difficult to detect on local scales due to large unforced variability.

(Frölicher et al, in revision)

2.0

-2.0

25

-25

Thomas Frölicher et al.

WP17. Coupled climate carbon cycle simulations

Objectives To provide standard set ups of coupled carbon-climate models including simulations for the present To provide predictions of ocean carbon sources and sinks with the standard model configurations for a standard emission scenario 2000-2200 To determine important feedback processes – key regional areas in the response of oceanic carbon cycle to climate change To provide interfaces for the new feedback processes as investigated under WP 16 and core theme 4

D17.12 Meeting of WP16 and WP17 to discuss current results and new coupled models runs, including feedback processes investigated under WP16 (month 48) (all).BERN 6-7 November 2008 Fortunat Joos et al.

The climate system: HadGEM2-ES

CLIMATE

CHEMISTRY ECOSYSTEMS

AEROSOLS GHG’s

Greenhouse EffectDirect andIndirect Effects

HumanEmissions

HumanEmissions

HumanEmissions

Land-useChange

Online

Offline

DMS,Mineral dust

Biogenic Emissions:CH4

Dry deposition: stomatal conductance

Oxidants:OH, H2O2

HO2,O3

CH4, O3,

CO2

Fe deposition

D 17.5 Carbon cycle data sets for basic future scenarios 2000-2100 from Hadley and Bergen Models (month 48) (partner 1and 33) [extended from previous work plan for Partner 1and 33].

Ian Totterdell et al.

D 17.5 Carbon cycle data sets for basic future scenarios 2000-2100 from Hadley and Bergen Models (month 48) (partner 1and 33) [extended from previous work plan for Partner 1and 33].

Jerry Tjiputra et al.

D 17.5 Carbon cycle data sets for basic future scenarios 2000-2100 from Hadley and Bergen Models (month 48) (partner 1and 33) [extended from previous work plan for Partner 1and 33].

Mats Bentsen, Ingo Bethke, Jerry Tjiputra et al.

Projections:- Carbon Fluxes and Climate-carbon feedback

… at the global scale : = dCflux / dCO2 and = dCflux / dT

= function of mean mixed layer depth = function of SST, MLD, Export, THC, …

… break down these relationships by regions / basins (Laurent Bopp, Tilla Roy, Marion Gehlen et al.)(discussion tomorrow)

D 17.9 Publication on intercomparison of oceanic carbon uptake on the 1860-2100 period, including others C4MIP models (month 42) (Partner 6 and all) [extended from previous work plan]

D 17.10 Analysis of climate change impact on export production of POC, CaCO3 and potential feedback on carbon uptake (month 42) (Partner 11, 6 and 13).

Birgit Schneider et al.

Projections: - Introducing other forcings – Carbon fluxes, CC feedback:

… Stratospheric ozone depletion (Lenton et al. submitted)

With O3 decrease:

- stronger winds- less carbon uptake

Lesssink

1980 1990 2000

Car

bon

Upt

ake

(G

tC y

-1)

Increase in wind stress in SO

IPSL Coupled model: Ensemble runs with/without stratospheric O3 depletion over 1975-2004

D17.11 Effects of other greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O, CFC, …) and anthropogenic aerosols on ocean carbon uptake and climate-carbon feedback (at least one group) (month 48) (Partner 6)

Effect of dust on ocean biogeochemistry

Present dust deposition

Future dust deposition

Extra CO2 taken up by the plankton

D17.11 Effects of other greenhouse gases (CH4, N2O, CFC, …) and anthropogenic aerosols on ocean carbon uptake and climate-carbon feedback (at least one group) (month 48) (Partner 6)

Totterdell et al.

An illustrative climate model experiment:- Business as Usual until 2100- Stop all emissions in 2100

(Plattner et al., J. Clim, 2008)

... and atmospheric CO2

from a range of models

(Plattner et al., J. Clim, 2008,IPCC, WGI, Fig TS31)

... and surface warming

Model descriptionExperimental DesignModel Performance

IntroductionMethodsResults & ImplicationsConclusions

Experimental design5 simulations, starting from a nearly stable 1000-year preindustrial control

from 1820 AD to 2500 AD

1) 680 year control run (to detrend possible model drift)

2) Zero emissions after 2100 SRES A2 („High-scenario“)

3) Zero emissions after 2100 SRES B1 („Low-scenario“)

4) Zero emissions after 2000 („Hist-scenario“)

5) No-warming: Zero emissions after 2100 („no-warming-scenario“)

2196 Gt C

1304 Gt C

397 Gt C

1900 2100 2300 2500

Thomas Frölicher et al.

CO2

Surface TemperatureSea Level RiseCarbonate Chemistry

IntroductionMethodsResults & UncertaintyConclusions

CO2

• CO2 decreases towards a new equilibrium, which is not reached by 2500.

• 29 % (27% wo cc) of the anth. carbon emissions willl remain in the atmosphere, but

the ocean takes up most of the remainder.

• Vegetation and soil carbon pools on land become a slight source for anth. carbon.

Atmospheric CO2 [ppm] Cumulative fraction of ant. CO2

Thomas Frölicher et al.

Steric sea leve rise: globalSteric sea level rise [cm]

CO2

Surface TemperatureSea Level RiseCarbonate Chemistry

IntroductionMethodsResults & UncertaintyConclusions

Thomas Frölicher et al.

Observation-based estimates from: ODEN-91, AOS-94, ARCSYS-96

Observations + modeled perturbation

0

1000

Projected undersaturation in the Arctic extendsto 4000 m depth in 2100 and SRES A2

Dep

th (

m)

200%

100%

50%

Dep

th (

m)

Distance (km) saturation

(Marco Steinacher et al., 2008)

WP18. Feasibility study on purposeful carbon storage

Objectives

To determine the kinetics and phase-transfer reactions between liquid CO2, hydrate, and seawater from laboratory experiments under high pressures.

To simulate the near-range dispersion of injected CO2 using these new kinetic constraints and improved meso-scale models for CO2 injection in the deep ocean and at the sea floor

To prepare the simulation of the large-scale propagation of injected CO2 and the global ocean’s retention efficiency (using these improved near-range constraints and a global high-resolution model)

To provide preliminary quantification of spatial scales for stress on marine biota due to deliberate CO2 injection.

Nikolaus Bigalke et al., Environ. Sci. Technol., 2008

D18.3 Extended parameters for near-range geochemical kinetics and phase transfer for deep ocean storage (month 42)

Deliverable 18.5: Global-scale, high-resolution modelling of CO2 release (status @ month 48)

• Models: low-res (ORCA2) vs. hi-res (ORCA05, ¼º at 60ºS)– Dynamics & CFC-11 evaluation (Lachkar et al., 2007, 2008)– Upgraded from OPA8 to OPA9 (NEMO): code + physics– Upgraded TOP (passive-tracer module): F90 etc – Upgraded acceleration tool (DEGINT): grid, approach– Complete rewrite of injection code (from OCMIP2-GOSAC)

• Simulations:– Preindustrial abiotic CO2 and C-14: 3000-year spin-up– Industrial-era (1765-2000): anthropogenic CO2 & C-14– Injection simulations launched in Dec 2008

• Low-res “Non-eddying” model (ORCA2) completed by end of Dec 2008

• High-res “Eddying” model (ORCA05) completed by end of Feb 2009

– Analysis (March – June 2009)– Report & Manuscript written (July – Dec 2009)

D18.5 Global scale high resolution modelling of CO2 release (month 42).

J. Orr et al.

POSTER

Where Mother Earth Runs a Lab for Us - Investigating Carbon Storage in Deep-Sea Sediments by Looking at Natural CO2 Seepage in the Okinawa Trough Hydrothermal System

Gregor Rehder & the SO 196 shipboard party

D18.6 Comparison of the observations of condensed CO2 behaviour from laboratory and field observations (54)