Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
CulturalTransformationsinthePre-HispanicAmericanSouthwestAnnKinzig
Collaborators • PeggyNelson
• DavidAbbott• MartyAnderies
• MichelleHegmon• BenNelson• JonNorton
• KeithKintigh• JonSandor
• KateSpielman
• KyleBocinsky
• BradButterfield• GrantSnitker
• ColleenStrawhacker
Hohokam
MesaVerde
Mimbres
Zuni
LaQuemada
Transformations
• Thereweresignificantculturaltransformations(some‘collapses’)throughouttheAmericanSouthwestfrom~AD1100to1450.
• Manyattributethesetransformationstoclimatechange.
• Howmuchwasexogenousclimatechange(‘badluck’)andhowmuchwasendogenous(socialstructures)?
?
Answer
• Theredoesn’tseemtobeanyrobustpattern.Sometransformationsaredifficulttoexplain.
1130
Mimbres‘reorganization’
1150
Hohokamcoalescence
1200
Cibola(Zuni)aggregation
1275
MesaVerdeabandonment
1300
Salinasreorganization
1450
Hohokam‘disappear’
SocialResilience
Diversity,adaptability,capacitytoinnovate,trust,socialcapital
SocialResilience
• Degreeofintegration• Degreeofconformity• Physicalsuffering
Resilience
Arethesetherightmeasuresofsocialresilience?
Mightthemagnitudeofthe‘disturbance’havevariedacrossculturalgroups?
KyleBocinskySKOPE
ClimateRisk
Howdowebetterevaluateclimateriskanditsimpactsonsubsistencestrategies?
Subsistencestrategies
STORAGEOFMAIZE SUPPLEMENTATIONWITHWILD-GATHEREDRESOURCES
SOCIALNETWORKS—ABILITYTOMOVEFOOD,PEOPLE,ETC.
ClimateRisk
• Wemakenoassumptionsaboutpopulationsize,foodrequirements,acreagefarmed.• Insteadweassumedthatpeopleadaptedtoconditions,anditwasconditionsoutsidetherangeoftheexperienceoftheprevious2-3generationsthatchallengedtheseadaptations.
StorageShortfallPercentage
Step1:
FocalYear
Previous60Years(~2Generations)
Runningavg.andSDtocreatethresholds
Step2:
FocalYear
0.5SDbelowavg.(createdfrom60yearrunningavg.)
Year-3 Year-2 Year-1
3-yearsrunningofdeficit=storageshortfall
Salinas1251-1325AD
WildPlantResources
Step1:
MeanAnnualTEMP
MeanAnnualPRCP
SpeciesPresence/AbsenceData
WildPlantResources
Step2:
MeanAnnualTEMP
MeanAnnualPRCP
SpeciesPresence/AbsenceData
Speciesmodelsprojectedtocreateaprobabilitysurfaceof100ethnographicallyidentified
“important”species
Probabilitiesthresholdsappliedtomakeapresence/absencemapofallspecies
FinalSpeciesRichnessMap
Salinas1250-1299AD
Anti-CorrelationMaps(socialnetworks)
Focalcellsonlandscape(ArchaeologicalSites)
Cell
0.5SDaboveavg.
0.5SDbelowavg.
60yearrunningavg
EachcellhasaupperSDthresholdandlowerSDthresholdthatiscalculatedeachyear
Goodyear=aboveupperthreshold
Badyear=belowlowerthreshold
Anti-CorrelationMapsSalinasCaseStudyAD1100-1450
GrowingSeason:May- Oct
Foreachyear:
Goodyear&badyearprocedureisrunonallcellswithinthemap
IftheFocalCellishavingagoodyear,procedurelooksforcellsexperiencingbadyears(surplusanti-correlated)
IftheFocalCellishavingabadyear,procedurelooksforcellsexperiencinggoodyears(deficitanti-correlated)
Anti-CorrelationMaps
Yearlymapsofcellssurplusanti-correlatedandcellsdeficitanti-correlatedtothefocalcellarecombinedandrepresentedasapercentageforeachtimeperiod.
Bothsurplusanti-correlationrelationshipsanddeficitanti-correlationrelationshiparerepresentedinourmaps.
Salinas1351-1450AD
Afewsizesfitmost?
Onesizefitsall
Onesizefitsone