Cultural Trends Affecting Leaders

Source: George Barnawww.barna.org

Why pay attention to trends?

• Clarifies ministry context

• Fosters relevance

• Enhances stewardship

• Connects with people more efficiently and effectively

Which trends matter?

• The difference between “interesting” and “useful” information

• John 3:16 …– A phone number?

Five Megatrends

1. Financial pressure is now the norm.

2. Email is now the standard communication m.o.

3. The Internet is now the prime info source (ie. medical)

4. There is a new baby boom going on.• +4 million births/year• Busters having babies earlier• Boomers beating the biological clock

5. Fasting growing ethnic: Hispanic • 35% growth between now and 2010 (vs. 11%)

Lifestyle Trends

•Student performance affected negatively by part-time jobs (esp.+15 hrs)

•Moms in the Labor force

•70% work for paycheck

–55% of all mothers with infants

Columbia study of Parental Influence on Kids

1. Monitoring TV2. Monitoring Internet use3. Music selection4. Knowing whereabouts5. Awareness of academic

performance6. Reasonable Curfews7. Expectations re: substance

abuse (“very upset”)8. Eating dinner together9. Household chores10. No latchkey

4 Primary American Regrets

“If I had it to do over …”

1. Better education (77%)

2. Have more fun (65)

3. Seek more adventure (48)

4. Know myself better (46)

Health Trends

• Weight gain– 60% overweight, 25% obese– 46 admit it, 25% actively

trying to lose weight– 70% adults not actively

exercise, 40% never– We consume 158 pounds of

sweeteners per year– Child obesity growing by 13%

Health Trends

• Alcohol

– On the rise• 31% HS students binge

once a month• 44% college

– 25% of all alcohol consumed in U.S. is by kids between age 12 to 25!

Church Growth Trends

1. 20% of all Protestant churches started since 1990

2. Growth is usually related to contemporary worship

3. Increase of Hispanics leaving Catholicism for evangelicalism

4. Confidence in churches is at an all-time low

Faith Trends

1. Acceptance of occult yet rejection of Satan

2. Universalism/syncretism way up

3. Blurring of doctrinal distinctions across faiths

– Bible, Koran, & Torah are perceived as more or less identical

4. People googling the internet for their theological info vs. local churches, pastors, etc.

Sequence for Gathering Info

1. Focus groups

2. Demographic survey

3. Written leadership survey

4. “Depth” interviews with open questions

5. Lapsed attendees survey

6. Current attendees survey

7. Weekend workers and trainees

What to learn from gathering info

• Find out what you’re doing well, too.

• Use research as a tool, not an end.

• Be redundant and multiple.

• Share data on “need-to-know” basis.

• Real leadership is about meeting real needs, not just “felt” needs.

Denominational Research to Enhance Congregational Health

• What kind of data do you measure? (EFCA)– Beyond A.B.C.’s– The 10 EFCA Core Values

1. Church planting2. Leadership3. Mission and Vision4. Evangelism5. Disciple making6. Relationships7. Stewardship8. God’s Word9. Spirituality10. Worship

What We Did with the Research

We learned …

• 81% of their churches had not planted in 5 years

• 74% had no plan to plant

• 59% gave less than 2% to it

• 28% gave nothing to it

We then …

• Reiterated core values

• Called churches to pre-planting spiritual activities (pray, survey neighborhoods)

• Reallocated and deployed larger $/human resources to the core planting value

What We Learned

1. Measure, don’t assume/guess.

2. Measure what counts.

3. Commit to do something about the results.

4. Most churches want to be effective and just need tools.

Sources of Info

• www.barna.org (Barna Research Group)• www.census.gov • www.gallup.com • www.harrisinteractive.com/news• www.isr.umich.edu/src (Institute of Social Research)• www.wkkf.org/knowledgebase (Kellogg Foundation)• www.cdc.gov.nchs (National Center for Health Stats)• www.nfow.com (NFO Research)• www.norc.uchicago.edu (National Opinion Research)• www.ropercenter.uconn.edu (Roper Center)

• www.roperasw.com/newsroom

Cultural Trends Affecting Leaders

Dr. John P. Chandler

www.rasnet.org

John.chandler@vbmb.orgCopy right John P. Chandler, 2002