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Currency Highlights
15th
Jan-2019
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
The U.S. dollar was little changed, while the Chinese yuan slipped after data showed the country’s exports shrank the most in 2 years in December.
The outlook for relative central bank policy has reached its climax in terms of offering the U.S. dollar support, and widening fiscal and current account deficits are expected to deliver medium-term weakness in the currency,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist, at Scotia bank in Toronto.
The Australian dollar and kiwi dollar, gauges of global risk appetite, fell on Monday on fears of a slowdown in China’s economy prompt-ed by a contraction in Chinese exports.
Euro zone industrial output posted in November its biggest fall in nearly three years, data showed on Monday, stoking concerns about the currency bloc's economic growth in the final quarter of 2018 and casting doubt over the timing of the next rate hike.
China published a five-year blueprint on Friday seeking economic and financial integration between southern Guangxi province and Southeast Asia, representing Beijing's latest effort to promote in-ternational use of the yuan currency.
SPOT Close Prv. Close Change % Change
USDINR 70.805 70.499 0.31 0.43
EURINR 81.320 81.267 0.05 0.07
GBPINR 91.257 90.344 0.91 1.01
JPYINR 65.610 65.090 0.52 0.80
DXY 95.205 94.887 0.32 0.34
Cross Currency Close Prv. Close Change % Change
EURUSD 1.1463 1.1528 -0.006 -0.56
GBPUSD 1.2865 1.2817 0.005 0.37
USDJPY 108.08 108.28 -0.200 -0.18
EURGBP 0.8910 0.8993 -0.008 -0.92
AUDUSD 0.7195 0.7220 -0.002 -0.35
RBI Reference Rate 14/01/2019 11/01/2019
USD 70.82 70.47
GBP 90.96 89.91
EUR 81.24 81.20
JPY 65.50 65.03
Interest Rate Future
(Underlying)
Price Yield
684GS2022 101.7200 7.2555
768GS2023 95.6500 7.4991
697GS2026 98.3100 7.4309
679GS2027 100.2500 7.2244
Global IndicesHome
CurrencyClose
Previous
CloseChange % Change
Nifty INR 10737.60 10794.95 -57.35 -0.53
Dow Jones USD 23909.84 23995.95 -86.11 -0.36
DAX EUR 10855.91 10887.46 -31.55 -0.29
FTSE 100 GBP 6855.02 6918.18 -63.16 -0.91
NIKKEI JPY 20544.64 20359.70 184.94 0.91
Technical View:
JPYINR has increased by 0.5% during the Monday trades and
settled above the prior week close.
On the daily chart, pair has shifted above 61.8% Retrace-
ment Level and also taken a support of rising trend line ,
which point out bullish move in the prices.
Moreover, pair has settled above 21 DEMA on the daily
chart.
Furthermore, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has
shown positive crossover on the daily chart.
So based on the above technical aspects, we expect bullish
movement in JPYINR (Jan) towards 66.20 level.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
USDINR has extended the gain by 0.6% on Monday session.
On the daily chart, pair has shown positive strength and test-
ed a upper line of Falling wedge pattern.
On a weekly time frame, pair has formed Bullish Engulfing
candlestick patterns and sustained above 200 DEMA, which
is supporting a bullish trend.
Moreover, a momentum indicator RSI (14) reading is at 54.22
with positive crossover on the daily chart.
So based on the above analysis, we expect bullish movement
in USDINR (Jan) towards 71.40 level.
Currency Highlights
15th
Jan-2019
USDINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
JPYINR
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 69.82 70.34 70.69 70.86 71.21 71.38 71.90
JPYINR 64.51 65.07 65.44 65.63 66.00 66.19 66.75
Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
15th
Jan-2019
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
EURINR has shown negative opening in early trades on Mon-
day but after that pair has recovered and ended the session
on positive note.
On the daily chart, pair has given falling trend line breakout
and sustained above it, which suggest bullishness in the pric-
es.
In addition, pair has moved above 21 DEMA on a daily chart,
which indicates more upside in the prices.
Moreover, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has
shown positive crossover on the daily chart.
So based on the above studies, we expect bullish movement
in EURINR (Jan) future towards 81.90 level.
Technical View:
GBPINR has started a week on positive note and settled
above 91 level.
On the daily chart, pair has given trend line breakdown and
sustained near the upper band of Bollinger formation.
It additions, pair has sustained above 21 days DEMA on the
daily chart.
Moreover, a momentum indicator RSI (14) and MACD has
shifted into positive zone with positive crossover.
Hence, we expect bullish movement in GBPINR (Jan) to-
wards 91.70 level.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
EURINR 80.26 80.81 81.18 81.36 81.73 81.91 82.46
GBPINR 89.35 90.19 90.70 91.03 91.54 91.87 97.88
Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
15th
Jan-2019
Economic Indicators
Time Currency Data Prior Expected Impact
03:30PM EUR Trade Balance 12.5B 13.2B ‘Actual’ greater than
‘Forecast’ is good for currency
07:00PM USD PPI m/m 0.1% -0.1% ‘Actual’ greater than
‘Forecast’ is good for currency
07:00PM USD Core PPI m/m 0.3% 0.2% ‘Actual’ greater than
‘Forecast’ is good for currency
08:30PM EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
11:30PM EUR FOMC Member George Speaks
Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Kkunal Parar
Sr. Research Associate
Sunil Rokade
Research Associate
Sachin Gupta
Research Analyst
Neeraj Dubey
Research Advisor
15th
Jan-2019
