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CURRENT TRENDS IN THESASKATCHEWAN LABOUR MARKET
Presentation prepared for the:
Saskatchewan Adult Basic Education Association
March 15, 2013Doug Elliott
Sask Trends Monitor444 19th Avenue
Regina, SaskatchewanS4N 1H1
www.sasktrends.ca
OUTLINE
Data Source: Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey
Overview of Short and Long Term Employment Trends
Characteristics of the Employed
Characteristics of the Positions
The Relationship between Education and Employment
Those Not in the Labour Force
Unless otherwise indicated, these data are from Statistics Canada; estimates and projections are the responsibility of Sask Trends Monitor
March 15, 2013 2
LABOUR MARKET TRENDS
THE LABOUR FORCE SURVEY
The Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a monthly survey that provides almost all of the current information about the labour market in Canada.
The sample size in Canada is over 50,000 households with about 4,000 in Saskatchewan. Depending on the number of individuals in the households, this yields labour market information for approximately 7,000 Saskatchewan adults per month.
From Saskatchewan’s point of view, the main weaknesses of the LFS are the exclusion of:
• the on-Reserve population; and
• temporary foreign workers.
March 15, 2013 4
Employed537,100
66%
Unemployed26,700
3%
Not in the labour force,
65+119,200
15%
Not in the labour force,
15-64128,000
16%
Labour Force Status, Annual Average for 2012 Saskatchewan (adult population = 811,000)
employment rate = 66.2% unemployment rate = 4.7% participation rate = 69.5%
LONG TERM TRENDS IN SASKATCHEWAN EMPLOYMENT
After dropping sharply in 2001, employment has been growing in recent years at an average annual rate of 1.4%.
This follows a period of about fifteen years with virtually no growth at all.
The 1.4% annual increase translates into about 7,000 new jobs per year.
The increase in 2012 was particularly high - 2.1% or the equivalent of 11,200 new jobs.
March 15, 2013 5
350
370
390
410
430
450
470
490
510
530
550
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Total Employment in Saskatchewan, 1976 to 2012
thousands
average annual growth
1.9% 0.0% 1.4%
MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT TRENDS IN SASKATCHEWAN
Adjusted for normal seasonal variations, employment was effectively flat throughout 2010 and 2011.
There was a jump in the spring of 2012 and another in early 2013.
March 15, 2013 6
500
510
520
530
540
550
560
570
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Monthly Employment in Saskatchewan, Seasonally Adjusted
thousands
2009 2010 2011 2012
LONG TERM TRENDS FOR PERSONS NOT IN THE LABOUR FORCE
There has been a gradual but steady decline in the number of those who were neither working nor looking for work.
The number of people out of the labour force increased sharply in 2011 and than again in 2012.
This is the group that needs to be tapped if employment growth is to be internally sourced.
Some of these are stay-at-home spouses, early retirees, those with a medical problem or those who live in remote areas.
Others will be the target for SABAE because many are not working because they do not have the right levels of education.
March 15, 2013 7
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Persons Not in the Labour Force(25 to 64 Years of Age) 1981 to 2012
thousands
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FROM 2007 TO 2012
During the boom years, Saskatchewan’s annual employment growth was above the national average for the first time in decades.
March 15, 2013 8
0.8%
1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.3%
-0.3%
-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Canada
Alta
Sask
Nfld
PEI
Man
B.C.
Que
Ont
NS
NB
Average Annual Growth in Employment by Province, 2007 to 2012
EMPLOYMENT RATES IN 2012
One of the reasons why employment hasn’t been increasing even more quickly is a mismatch between the demand for and supply of workers.
This figure shows the employment rate (the percentage of the population with a job) in the primary labour market age group.
The prairie provinces have always had the highest employment rates in Canada.
March 15, 2013 9
81.4%
84.5%
84.4%
84.3%
81.6%
81.4%
80.7%
80.2%
80.0%
78.7%
75.3%
65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90%
Canada
Alta
Man
Sask
Que
PEI
Ont
B.C.
NS
NB
Nfld
Employment Rates in 2012, 25 to 54 Years of Age
SUB-PROVINCIAL DATA
REGIONS IN THE LABOUR FORCE SURVEY
The LFS has a large enough sample size to provide employment estimates for seven regions in the province including two “census metropolitan areas”.
The LFS measures employment according to where you live not where you work.
March 15, 2013 11
SaskatoonCMA
ReginaCMA
North
West Central
East Central
Southwest
Southeast
Estevan
Weyburn
Melville
Swift Current
Yorkton
Kindersley
Melfort
Nipawin
Humboldt
Prince Albert
North Battleford
Lloydminster
Meadow Lake
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN METROPOLITAN AREAS
There is a long standing trend toward growth in Saskatoon at the expense of other parts of the province.
Employment among residents of the two metropolitan areas now accounts for about one half of the employment in the province.
The two cities had similar employment levels in the early 1990s but Saskatoon has been growing much more quickly since then although 2010 and 2011 were notable exceptions.
March 15, 2013 12
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Regina and Saskatoon Employment
ReginaCMA
SaskatoonCMA
thousands
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY REGION, 2007 TO 2012
From 2007 to 2012, employment grew in four of the seven regions within the province.
The pace of growth was highest among residents of:
• the Regina and Saskatoon metropolitan areas;
• those who live in the southeast (Weyburn/ Estevan); and the
• the North.
March 15, 2013 13
1.3%
2.8%
1.8%
1.6%
1.4%
0.1%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
Saskatchewan
Regina
Southeast
Saskatoon
North
West Central
East Central
Southwest
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY REGION, 2012
Saskatoon has bounced back strongly in 2012.
March 15, 2013 14
2.1%
4.7%
2.7%
2.6%
1.5%
0.3%
-0.8%
-3.0%
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
Saskatchewan
Saskatoon
Regina
Southeast
North
West Central
Southwest
East Central
Growth in Employment, 2012
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EMPLOYED
Employment Trends in Saskatchewan in the five years ending in 2012
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY GENDER, 2007 TO 2012
Employment had been growing more quickly among women than among men throughout most of the 1990s and 2000s.
This long-standing trend has reversed in the past few years because more new jobs have been in industries which are dominated by men (e.g. construction and the resource sector)
Men outnumber women in the labour market by a ratio of 54:46.
March 15, 2013 16
537,100
291,200
245,900
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Both sexes
Men
Women
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employment in 2012
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY AGE GROUP, 2007 TO 2012
Employment growth has been most pronounced among older workers.
Some but not all of the change is the result of demographics, that is, more or fewer people in the age group. The rest of the change is the result of higher participation rates.
Anecdotally, the growth in older workers (55 plus) seems to be the result of a delay in retirements.
The growth among those 25 to 34 years of age is partly driven by demographic trends and partly by inter-provincial and international in-migration.
March 15, 2013 17
85,200
116,200
103,400
121,300
86,800
24,200
537,100
-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
15 to 24 years
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 & older
All ages
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employment in 2012
EMPLOYMENT BY COMPLETED EDUCATION, 2007 TO 2012
The highest rate of employment growth since 2007 has been among those with a university degree.
Growth rates are lower than expected for those with a post-secondary diploma or certificate.
March 15, 2013 18
70,600
134,900
39,900
178,500
113,200
537,100
-6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9%
Less than high school
High school only
Partial post-secondary
Certificate/diploma
University Degree
All levels of education
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employment in 2012
EMPLOYMENT AMONG ABORIGINAL PEOPLE OFF-RESERVE
We only have Aboriginal employment data for the off-Reserve population and only from 2007 on.
Employment growth was strong in 2007 with 30% of the provincial employment increase accounted for by people reporting an Aboriginal identity and living off Reserve.
This reversed in the more recent time period with employment growing in the non-Aboriginal population more quickly than in the Aboriginal population.
Over the five years ending in 2012, Aboriginal employment has grown more quickly than non-Aboriginal employment.
March 15, 2013 19
495,500
15,000
24,800
39,800
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
Non-Aboriginal
First Nation
Métis
Total
Abo
rigin
al
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employment in 2012
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AMONG IMMIGRANTS, 2007 TO 2012
Although the numbers are small, the employment growth from 2007 to 2012 among recent immigrants has been quite remarkable, averaging 25% per year.
Notwithstanding the increase, recent immigrants still account for only 3½% of the employment in 2012.
March 15, 2013 20
19,100
29,600
476,800
537,100
-5% 0% 5% 10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
Immigrated in the past five years
Immigrated more than five years ago
Born in Canada
Total
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employmentin 2012
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE JOB
Employment trends since 2007 according to the characteristics of the job rather than the characteristics of the person.
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY CLASS OF WORKER, 2007 TO 2012
There are some signs of the widely anticipated shift to contract employment. Since 2007, the strongest rates of employment growth have been in casual and contract positions.
Permanent paid jobs now account for 71% of total employment.
March 15, 2013 22
98,300
380,400
13,500
25,600
19,000
438,800
537,100
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Self employed
Permanent
Seasonal
Contract or term
Casual
All employees
Total employment
Em
ploy
ees
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employmentin 2012
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY NUMBER OF JOBS, 2007 TO 2012
In 2012, 7% of those who were working held two jobs simultaneously, called multiple job holders.
Saskatchewan has the highest proportion of multiple job holders in Canada.
The number of multiple job holders has declined since 2007. This may be related to the improved economics in farming, a sector in which a lot of multiple job holders work.
March 15, 2013 23
37,200
499,900
537,100
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
Multiple job holders
Single job holders
Both
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employmentin 2012
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY TENURE, 2007 TO 2012
There have been many forecasts of an increase in turnover in the labour market as young people change careers more often.
After years of steady increasing tenure, average tenure in Saskatchewan is now starting to drop.
From 2007 to 2012, the average tenure dropped from 116 months to 112 months.
March 15, 2013 24
68,600
45,100
167,300
81,200
86,100
89,000
537,100
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
One to six months
7 to 12 months
1 to 4.9 years
5 to 9.9 years
10 to 19.9 years
20 or more years
All
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employmentin 2012
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY HOURS OF WORK, 2007 TO 2012
Employment is growing more quickly among those who work full-time hours. (Part time work is defined as those who normally work less than 30 hours/week at their main or only job.)
Even with the increase in the number of involuntary part-time workers, they still make up only 20% of part-timers.
March 15, 2013 25
443,800
74,200
19,100
537,100
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Full time
Voluntary part time
Involuntary part time
Total
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employment in 2012
AVERAGE HOURS WORKED, MAIN JOB, 2007 TO 2012
There is no evidence that the province’s employees are working longer hours to meet the increase in demand.
The average weekly hours worked in 2012 was 34.6 compared with 34.5 in 2007 and 35.2 in 2000.
March 15, 2013 26
32.0
32.5
33.0
33.5
34.0
34.5
35.0
35.5
36.0
36.5
37.0
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Average Hours Worked per Week, Main Job Only, Saskatchewan
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR, 2007 TO 2012
In spite of the booming economy, the public sector (broadly defined to include the crowns, health, and education as well as government proper) is growing more quickly than the private sector.
During the period from 2007 to 2012, public sector employment increased by an average of 2.1% per year compared with 1.0% per year for the private sector.
March 15, 2013 27
138,300
300,600
98,300
398,900
537,100
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Public sector
Paid
Self-employed
Private sector total
All
Priv
ate
sect
or
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employmentin 2012
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY GROUP, 2007 TO 2012
March 15, 2013 28
27,200
38,900
80,600
30,900
19,400
26,000
43,000
31,300
13,100
30,200
70,100
25,600
31,500
25,000
44,400
537,100
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Wholesale and retail trade
Accommodation and food services
Information, culture, recreation
Transportation and warehousing
Educational services
Public administration
Business services
Finance, insurance, real estate
Health care and social assistance
Personal and household services
Resources, utilities
Professional, scientific, technical services
Construction
All industries
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employmentin 2012
EMPLOYMENT BY UNION MEMBERSHIP, 2007 TO 2012
The strong growth in the public sector where the majority of workers are union members has kept the rate of growth in union positions above the rate of growth in non-union positions.
March 15, 2013 29
155,300
283,500
438,800
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Union
Non Union
All paid workers
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employment in 2012
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SIZE OF FIRM, 2007 TO 2012
Employment is growing more quickly in larger firms than in smaller ones.
Part of the reason will be the growth in the public sector where firms tend to be larger.
March 15, 2013 30
173,800
149,900
76,800
38,300
438,800
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Less than 20
20 to 99
100 to 499
500 or more
All paid workers
Average Annual Growth in Employment, 2007 to 2012
employmentin 2012
HOURLY WAGE RATES IN SASKATCHEWAN
The booming economy and shortage of workers has enabled wage rates to rise rapidly.
From 2007 to 2012, the increase has averaged 2.8% per year after adjusting for inflation.
This is well above the national average.
March 15, 2013 31
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
$22
$24
$26
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Average Hourly Wage Rate, Paid Employees Only, Saskatchewan
in constant $2012
annual % change
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EDUCATION AND THELABOUR MARKET
EMPLOYMENT RATES BY LEVEL OF COMPLETED EDUCATION
The probability of finding a job increases significantly as the level of education increases.
The chart shows the employment rates for those in the “primary labour market” age group, namely those 25 to 54 years of age.
In this age group, 56% of persons with less than Grade 9 are working. The percentage increases to 83% among those who have graduated from high school and to 88% among post-secondary graduates.
March 15, 2013 33
56%
68%
83%
80%
88%
88%
84%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Less than Grade 9
Some high school
High school graduate
Incomplete post-secondary
Certificate or diploma
University degree
All levels of education
Employment Rates, Population 25 to 54 Years of Age, Saskatchewan, 2012
AVERAGE WAGE RATES BY LEVEL OF COMPLETED EDUCATION
Whereas having grade 12 almost ensures an opportunity for employment, higher levels of education are required for a significantly higher wage rate.
The average wage rate for those with a high school diploma was $21.24 in 2012 which is 17% less than the average of $25.44 for those with a post-secondary certificate.
University graduates, in turn, earn 20% more than those with a certificate or diploma.
March 15, 2013 34
$18.38
$16.77
$21.24
$20.81
$25.44
$30.49
$24.11
$10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35
Less thanGrade 9
Some highschool
Highschool
graduate
Incompletepost-
secondary
Certificateor diploma
Universitydegree
All levelsof
education
Average Hourly Wage Rates, by Level of Completed Education, Saskatchewan, 2012
PERSONS NOT IN THE LABOUR MARKET
PERSONS NOT IN THE LABOUR FORCE, SASKATCHEWAN, 2012
There were 247,200 persons not in the labour force during an average month in 2012. These are people who are neither working nor looking for work.
With the skill shortage in Saskatchewan, one of the questions that often arises is the extent to which we can use this group to meet labour market needs.
Of the total, almost two-thirds are either seniors (probably permanently retired) or full-time students (better off in school than working).
That leaves 91,400 possible new entrants to the labour force.
Remember that this is the Labour Force Survey so there will be lots of folks living on Reserve who are not in the labour force.
March 15, 2013 36
65 & Older119,200
Full time students36,600
Other91,400
Not in the Labour Force, Saskatchewan, 2012, Total = 247,200
PERSONS NOT IN THE LABOUR FORCE, SASKATCHEWAN, 2012
Among the 91,400 who are not full-time students or seniors, about one half are probably retired (50 to 64 years of age) or women who are at home looking after young children.
There were 25,400 persons with less than grade 12. Many would be available for work if they completed an ABE program.
March 15, 2013 37
Less than grade 12
25,400
With pre-schoolers at
home12,300
Early retirees? (ages 50 to 64)
34,800
All others (15 to 49)
18,900
Not in the Labour Force, Not Students or Seniors, Total = 91,400
AGE FOR THOSE WITH LESS THAN GRADE 12
Drilling down into the 25,400 who were 15 to 64 years age and with less than grade 12, we find:
• one quarter in the 15 to 24 age group;
• one quarter 25 to 44 years of age; and
• one half 45 & older.
The first two age groups will probably be more responsive to ABE than the third?
March 15, 2013 38
15 to 24 years of age6,600
25 to 44 years of age6,300
45 to 64 years of age12,500
Not in the Labour Force, Less than Grade 12, Total = 25,400
COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS?