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Current/Future Directions for Air Force Space Weather

Dr. Joel B. MozerBattlespace Environment Division

Space Vehicles Directorate

Air Force Research Laboratory

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Leading the discovery, development, and integration of affordable technologies for our air, space and cyberspace force.

Leading the discovery, development, and integration of affordable technologies for our air, space and cyberspace force.

It’s not just about the science……it’s about leadership in S&T

It’s not just about the science……it’s about leadership in S&T

AFRL Mission

Space Weather Research at AFRL

• Why is the Air Force interested in Space Weather?

• What is the current state of Space Weather within the AF?

• What does the future look like?

Leading the nation for forecasting the Space Environment3

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Space Services

Navigation

Communications

Weather

Space assets are pervasive in civilian and

defense services

Precision Strike

ISR

Why is the AF interested in SWx?

• Satellite Operations

– Rapid anomaly assessment – was it a bug, the environment, or the enemy?

– Protection and mitigation important

• Satellite Design

– How much shielding?

– How long of a lifetime?

• Space Situational Awareness

– Enabling good decisions based on good knowledge of battlespace

• The Ionosphere

– Impacts many RF-based systems communicating through, or across it

– GPS, Satellite Communication, HF Communication, etc.

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Space Weather Impacts Nearly Every AF Mission!

Hazards of Space EnvironmentSatellite Systems

• Vacuum welding

• UV damage

• Sputtering

• Corrosiveness of atomic oxygen

• Plasma-induced charging

• Micrometeoroids

• Fluctuating magnetic fields

• Energetic charged particles / radiation

• Neutral atmosphere drag

• Solar radio noise

• Debris / collisions

• Ionosphere (ground communications)6 of 23

Satellite Communications

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High

Med

Low

Imp

act

Development of SATCOM systems• Broad trade space (bandwidth, coverage, cost, survivability, security)• Ionospheric scintillation very important

• UHF/VHF most affected• Equatorial regions most affected

What is the current state of SWx?

• Environmental monitoring

– Space-based: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)

– Ground-based: Solar Electro Optical Network (SEON)

• Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) – 4 telescopes worldwide

• Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) – 4 observatories,

– Civilian (non AF) assets: ACE, LASCO, etc.

• Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)

– Ingests data

– Runs assimilative and forecast models (relatively primitive)

– Produces forecasts & system impact products

• Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC)

– Assesses environment

– Tasks satellites

• Satellite Design Centers

– Use standard empirical models of radiation environments

– Often engineer around Space Weather effects (at high cost)

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Space Weather Lags Tropospheric Weather by 30 years!

Space Wx ForecastingSpace Wx Forecasting

• Currently in the era of specification

– Climatology for satellite design

– Post-anomaly resolution

• Predictive decision aids increasingly required

– More dependence on space

– More sensitivity to environmental effects

Tropospheric Wx ForecastingTropospheric Wx Forecasting

• Lots of data!

• Robust operational numerical weather prediction

• Impacts well known

• Culture of considering weather effects (e.g., ATOs)

• Infrastructure to support rapid data dissemination

24-hr fcst of 500mb winds/clouds over SW Asia

Vision: Dynamic data-driven models to provide products with real military utility delivered to warfighter

Space Weather Forecasting10-year Vision

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Space WeatherAFSPC Vision

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Sun-to-Mud CouplingState of the Science

Solar InteriorMHD dynamicsEmerging magnetic fluxBackside imaging (helioseismology)

Solar InteriorMHD dynamicsEmerging magnetic fluxBackside imaging (helioseismology)

Photosphere & Chromosphere

Mag. FieldSolar Energetic Particles (SEPs)Flares / Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)Coronal holes / solar wind Radio BurstsX-ray/EUV emissions

Photosphere & Chromosphere

Mag. FieldSolar Energetic Particles (SEPs)Flares / Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)Coronal holes / solar wind Radio BurstsX-ray/EUV emissions

HeliosphereInterplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)Solar WindShocks/SEPsCMEs

HeliosphereInterplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)Solar WindShocks/SEPsCMEs

MagnetosphereIMFMagnetic storms/substormsAuroral zones/ring currentsPolar Cap PotentialRadiation BeltsSouth Atlantic Anomaly (SAA)

MagnetosphereIMFMagnetic storms/substormsAuroral zones/ring currentsPolar Cap PotentialRadiation BeltsSouth Atlantic Anomaly (SAA)

Thermosphere & Ionosphere

Plasma bubbles / equatorial anomaliesScintillation / density fluctuationNeutral windsTravelling iono. disturbancesUV HeatingIon chemistryBulk ionosphere

Thermosphere & Ionosphere

Plasma bubbles / equatorial anomaliesScintillation / density fluctuationNeutral windsTravelling iono. disturbancesUV HeatingIon chemistryBulk ionosphere

Driven/Compliant System

Persistent System

Legend6.1 – TRL 1-26.2 – TRL 3-46.3 – TRL 5-6

Legend6.1 – TRL 1-26.2 – TRL 3-46.3 – TRL 5-6

Covering all the pieces of a very complex system!11

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Examples of AFRL Space Weather Technology Projects

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Solar Disturbance PredictionAnd Impacts On DoD Systems

• Large-aperture telescope design and construction

• Remote sensing of solar & coronal vector magnetic fields and electric currents

• Energy storage and release mechanisms in large magnetic plasmas

• Characterization of coronal mass ejections (size, density, magnetic configuration, etc.)

Technology Challenges

Objective: Develop full-range of sensors, models & products to provide reliable specification and prediction of solar and interplanetary disturbances and the hazards they pose to DoD missions and operations

Objective: Develop full-range of sensors, models & products to provide reliable specification and prediction of solar and interplanetary disturbances and the hazards they pose to DoD missions and operations

Space Weather starts a the Sun. Understanding solar disturbances is required to achieve 72-120 hour forecasts of SWx at Earth.

Space Weather starts a the Sun. Understanding solar disturbances is required to achieve 72-120 hour forecasts of SWx at Earth.

Advanced Tech. Solar Telescope (ATST)

Improved Solar Optical Observing Network (ISOON)

Space Sensing TechnologySolar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI)

SMEI Achievements/Milestones

• Launched January 2003

• First Halo Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) ob

• Tomographic measurements and 3-D reconstruction

• Very high altitude aurora observations

• Gamma ray burst comparison study

• Solar wind drag model and Ulysses data comparison

• Space weather evaluation for Earth-directed ICMEs

• Eclipsing binary stellar studies

• ICME observations at Mars

• Solar wind drag, driving Lorentz Force and model comparison

• Comet tail “disruption event” discovery

• Obs of ICMEs not connected with CMEs in coronagraphs

• Phenomenological model of ICME structure/kinematics

SMEI Achievements/Milestones

• Launched January 2003

• First Halo Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) ob

• Tomographic measurements and 3-D reconstruction

• Very high altitude aurora observations

• Gamma ray burst comparison study

• Solar wind drag model and Ulysses data comparison

• Space weather evaluation for Earth-directed ICMEs

• Eclipsing binary stellar studies

• ICME observations at Mars

• Solar wind drag, driving Lorentz Force and model comparison

• Comet tail “disruption event” discovery

• Obs of ICMEs not connected with CMEs in coronagraphs

• Phenomenological model of ICME structure/kinematics

SMEI phenomenally successful first Heliospheric ImagerOver 100 publications to date!

Comet Tail DisconnectsResult of Interplanetary CME passage

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Comet LINEAR (C/2002 T7)

ICME

ACE Shock

LASCO Data

SMEI Model

CME/ICME: 30 November-05 December, 2004

The Tappin-Howard CME Propagation Model

Projected LASCO

Projected arrival time at ACE:

LASCO projection: 13:30 UT on 4 December.

TH Model projection: 07:15 UT on 5 December.

Actual arrival time at ACE:

06:56 UT on 5 December.

So the Tappin-Howard Model predicted an arrival time that was just 19 minutes later than the actual time!

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Ionospheric ImpactsOn DoD Systems

Objective: Develop & deploy sensors, models & products to specify, forecast & mitigate ionospheric disturbances & their impacts on DoD RF systems

Objective: Develop & deploy sensors, models & products to specify, forecast & mitigate ionospheric disturbances & their impacts on DoD RF systems

SatCom/GPSSatellite

Receiver

Scintillation,Comm dropouts,GPS loss of lock

IrregularitiesIn ionosphere

Systems Impacted by Scintillation

AF has no capability to forecast link outages caused by ionospheric scintillationAF has no capability to forecast link outages caused by ionospheric scintillation

Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS)

Milestones accomplished• Launched (April 16, 2008)

C/NOFS Instruments• C/NOFS Occultation (GPS) Receiver for Ionospheric

Sensing and Specification (CORISS)• Vector Electric Field Instrument (and mag) (VEFI)• Coherent EM Radio Tomography (CERTO)• Neutral Wind Meter (NWM)• Ion Velocity Meter (IVM)• Planar Langmuir Probe (PLP)

Work in progress• Understanding the data• Improved Models• Operational Demonstration

C/NOFS is on track for April 2008 LaunchC/NOFS is pathfinder for operational iono. missionC/NOFS is pathfinder for operational iono. mission

C/NOFS Components• Satellite• Ground Stations

•SCINDA•Beacons

• Models and Products

SCINDA Sites Thru 2008

DISS DISS TEC TEC

S4 S4

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Data Received

TEC

SCINDA Stations

DISS Stations

Ionospheric Monitors Data-Driven Modeling

C/NOFS System Components

GPS Error

COMM Outage

Satellite & Ground Stations

Specification Products

Data Assimilation

Physics-Based Forecasts

Data Center

Global/Regional MapsStatic, flat displays

Point-to-Point DataDynamic, interactive displays

SATCOM

GPS

RADARSATCOM

4D Data Grids 4D Data Grids 4D Data Grids

C/NOFS Data and Product Types

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Space Particle HazardsSpecification and Forecasting

Objectives: •Develop technology to measure/monitor /specify/forecast the space particle/radiation environments (local & globally) •Develop models of the magnetosphere & radiation belts •Predict the hazardous effects on DoD space systems•Develop technology to passively/actively defend against space environment

Objectives: •Develop technology to measure/monitor /specify/forecast the space particle/radiation environments (local & globally) •Develop models of the magnetosphere & radiation belts •Predict the hazardous effects on DoD space systems•Develop technology to passively/actively defend against space environment

• Miniaturized Sensors

• Limited Data Sets – Measurements made in 1960s & 1970s

• Lack of understanding of non-linear dynamic radiation-belt processes

• Non-Standardized electrical & telemetry interfaces

Technology Challenges

South Atlantic Anomaly (horn of inner belt)

Aurora

Outer belt horn

Important for satellite acquisition…

• New AP-9/AE-9 standard radiation belt model being developed

• Provides significant improvement in coverage and statistics over current AP-8/AE-8 standard

• Sorely needed by satellite engineers to control risk, maximize capability and reduce cost in designing for new orbit regimes

… and for space situational awareness

• AFRL using CEASE/TSX-5 database to develop models of LEO radiation hazards

– Protons in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA)

– Electrons in the “Horns” of outer belt

• Drift of Earth’s internal magnetic field (0.3 – 0.45 deg/year) changes location of SAA - old maps inaccurate

• Accurate map crucial for mission planning, situational awareness and anomaly resolution

Aurora

1/2 maximum

1/10 maximum

Background x 3 maximum

Key: > 23 MeV, > 38 MeV, > 59 MeV, > 96 MeV

Proton boundaries at 800 km

> 1.2 MeV electron maps at 1050 km

Outer BeltInner Belt

Slot

HEO

RBSP

ICO

TSX5

DSX

GEO

LEO

Radiation environment

Space Weather SSA LEO Radiation Environment Models

Developing next-generation LEO radiation models for mission planning/situational awarenessDeveloping next-generation LEO radiation models for mission planning/situational awareness

REQUIREMENT

Improved SSA• Identify space weather effects• Timely anomaly resolution• Discrimination from hostile actions

Cultural AcceptanceAt least some space environment sensors are

needed on every asset

Miniaturized, Easily-Integrated InstrumentsExisting, upgraded, and novel instruments

affordably providing essential data

Distributed, Coordinated CapabilityAn architecture for configurable, distributed

instruments and on-board analysis

Accurate, timely and complete space environment information for operators and decision-makers

GOAL

S E D A R SSPACE ENVIRONMENT DISTRIBUTED ANOMALY RESOLUTION SYSTEM

Space Environment SensorsMicro-Meteoroid Impact Detector

IntegratedImpactStand-offSensor

OpticalFlash

DebrisPlasma

RFEmissions

AcousticSignature

MechanicalDeformation

Collaboration with AFRL/RVSV, NASA-JSC, & Sandia Natl Lab has begun. AFRL goal is to produce a flight instrument in FY11.

Preliminary experiments in FY04-06 demonstrated that an integrated optical and RF instrument could remotely detect hypervelocity (1–70 km/s) impacts.

Hypervelocity impacts to manned and unmanned spacecraft are an increasing threat.

micrometeoroids debris kinetic ASATs

“fre

qu

en

cy

”

2 GHz

8 MHz

0 µs 10 µstime

Wavelet analysis

electrostaticdischarge?

impacts

RF time series

IMPACT SIGNATURE ANALYSIS

Microwavereceiver

Debrisplasmasensor

Opticalsensor

Cabling andRF sensor

DETECTION … LOCALIZATION … CHARACTERIZATION … ATTRIBUTION

Objective: Develop sensors, data products, estimation techniques, empirical and coupled physical models to accurately specify and forecast the neutral atmosphere and satellite drag that are used to obtain precision orbit prediction for space objects

Objective: Develop sensors, data products, estimation techniques, empirical and coupled physical models to accurately specify and forecast the neutral atmosphere and satellite drag that are used to obtain precision orbit prediction for space objects

Technology Challenges

• Miniaturized, low-power, capable, reliable autonomous space-based sensors

• Physics-based coupled model development

• Active plasma control technologies

• Space-based neutral-wind monitoring; characterization of appropriate orbital parameters

• Data assimilation and forecasting

Orbital Drag EnvironmentsSpecification and Forecasting

Developing first physics-based model to accurately specify/forecast the satellite drag environment

Developing first physics-based model to accurately specify/forecast the satellite drag environment

Facility for integrating AFRL and related space weather forecast capabilities

Test bed for testing and evaluating space weather forecasting techniques, tools, and models

Focus for transfer of R&D models into operational usage (as per National Space Weather Panel Assessment Committee)

SWFL

SWx Impacts to MissionsSpace Weather Forecast Laboratory

A platform for demonstrating AFRL SWx science and technology for ops A platform for demonstrating AFRL SWx science and technology for ops

Model CouplingSpace Weather Forecast Laboratory

SWFL looking to bridge the gap between CISM and warfighter

SWFL Activities• End-to-end validation

• Tailoring for DoD needs

• Science Applications

• Increasing system TRL

• Product generation

• Scientist “training”

• Supports FLTC 2.6.3 – “Integrated Space Environment”

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Conclusion

• We are in a rapidly emerging state of technology to enable space weather forecasting for current and future DoD systems

• AFRL’s role is to bridge the gap between space weather research and warfighter needs

• Future of space weather (from AF perspective):

– Robust Numerical Space Weather Prediction

– More sensing through small, cheap, lightweight sensors on many satellites

– Direct inclusion of space weather effects in systems and decision aids

AFWA’sSpace WOC

GPS IIR-13launch