CUSD True North Bond Poll

8/8/2019 CUSD True North Bond Poll

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TBWB & True North Research 2010 4Claremont Unified School District. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

FIGURE 2 SUPPORT FOR PROJECTS: BOND

20.8

27.0

24.5

32.0

35.0

44.2

39.6

47.9

45.5

45.8

41.4

41.5

44.7

42.8

58.6

34.4

30.4

38.0

33.6

31.9

24.3

29.4

25.2

28.2

28.3

32.9

34.4

31.9

35.8

21.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Renovate the Claremont High School Theater

Improve pick-up and drop-off zones at school sites

Renovate old, worn-out athletic facilit ies

Renovate or replace outdated classrooms and school buildings

Improving technology to create science, engineering magnet school

Retrofit classrooms for special purposes such as art , music, language

Replace deteriorating t emporary trailers with permanent classrooms

Make energy-efficient improvements and refinance District deb t

Upgrade and improve school libraries

Install solar panels, make other energy-efficiency improvements

Upgrade safety, securit y systems

Upgrade library te chnology, Internet access and research tools

Repair or replace roofs, plumbing, light ing, and electrical systems

Upgrade classroom computers and technology

Remove hazardous materials from school sites like lead and asbestos

% Respondents: Bond Version

S trongly fav or Somewhat fav or


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The Bond Enjoys Steady Support The bond option enjoys a natural level of support that is

above the margin necessary for success, and voters responded to the information in the poll by

increasing their support furthercreating a welcome buffer of support above 55%.

Support exceeds 55% throughout the poll, climbs to 63% once voters are exposed to positivearguments, and is still at 60% even after negative arguments (see Support for Bond at Initial,

Interim, and Final Ballot Teston page 3). Opposition never climbs higher than 35% (45% +1 needed to defeat).

All projects tested well (see Support for Projects: Bond on page 4), including those thatwould provide general fund relief to help pay for teachers, maintain small class sizes, andfund important academic programs.

There is less sensitivity to the tax rates.

Voters are not affected much by positive or negative information about the prior bond, likelybecause it's been ten years since then.

The Parcel Tax will Require that Everything Goes Well Support for the parcel tax hovers

below two-thirds for much of the interview, and even after registering support for the services

that would be funded and being exposed to positive arguments, support barely reaches two-thirds. There are clear concerns about the tax rate and the potential impact of opposition.

Baseline support is 65%, but does not move much in response to positive messages ordescriptions of how the money would be used.

There is tax rate sensitivitywith support dropping to 60% at $139. Climbing back to 66%requires a substantial reduction in the actual tax rate ($79).

After being exposed to negative arguments, support for the parcel tax is actually loweratthe end of the survey than at the beginning.

Opposition is consistently in the 30%-32% range. It takes just 33.3% +1 to defeat a parceltax.

The parcel tax survey had a sample that modeled the most favorable electorate we couldexpect (40% of respondents had children in the household, somewhat higher % of Demo-crats). Even with this type of turnout which would take a lot of effort for the campaign toproduce, support is still below the two-thirds threshold for most of the interview.

Election Timing Considerations Looking to the near future, there are fewer opportunities for

a Prop 39 bond than there are for a parcel tax election.

November 2010 Gubernatorial

November 2011 School Board Elections (lower turnout/risk that tax becomes a candidatecampaign issue)

November 2012


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S U R V E Y S U M M A R Y & T A K E - A W A Y STrue North Research and TBWB recently completed a survey of 600 voters in the Claremont Uni-

fied School District to produce an unbiased, statistically reliable evaluation of voters interest in

supporting a local revenue measure to fund school services and facilities. The telephone survey

was administered between April 23 and May 4, 2010 and the average interview lasted 16 min-

utes.

TESTING TWO ALTERNATIVES: PARCEL TAX & BOND One of the objectives of thestudy was to determine how support for a local measure may vary depending on the type of

financial mechanism employed: parcel tax or general obligation bond. To reliably estimate sup-

port for both types of measures, a split-sample methodology was employed such that 300 voters

were administered a survey that focused on a parcel tax, whereas a separate 300 voters were

asked questions regarding a potential bond measure. All 600 respondents received generic

questions that applied to both types of measures.

SUMMARY & TAKE-AWAYS Although a more detailed report is forthcoming, at this point

we are able to highlight a number of key findings that speak to the feasibility of placing a reve-nue measure on the November 2010 ballot.

Claremont Voters Greatly Value Education Claremont voters place extraordinary value on

education, and are much more connected to education on a personal level than typical of other

communities.

Maintaining the quality of education in local schools is ranked as the most important issuefacing the communitynothing else comes close.

Approximately 45% of likely voters are employed by a local school or college, are retiredfrom a career in education, or have a family member who fits this profile.

Voters display a high level of familiarity with the Districtjust 11% did not have an opinionabout the Districts performance.

Voters share a very positive assessment of the quality of education provided by the District.Positive assessments outnumber negative assessments by more than 8 to 1.

Many of the Factors Needed for a Successful Measure are in Place There are a variety of

factors that need to be in place for a measure to be successful, and many of these factors are

present in Claremont.

There is a high level of awareness that the District needs additional money

Voters have positive opinions about the Districts performance

The current, baseline support for a revenue measure is solid: 58% for a bond, 65% for a par-cel tax.

The services and projects that would be funded by a measure are popularboth servicesand capital projects.

Positive messages about the measures resonate with voters.

External considerations are also favorable, including committed leaders and volunteers, andadequate time to prepare and campaign for a measure.


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Documents

CUSD True North Bond Poll