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CWWUC Presentation April 8, 2009. Application of the Integrated Impact Analysis Tool. Status of Division Work. Site Classes Set up Fuzzy Set Site Classes based on elevation, slope, and precipitation. 5 Site Classes High-elevation, cold water sites - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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CWWUC PresentationApril 8, 2009
Application of the Integrated Impact Analysis Tool
Status of Division Work
Site Classes Set up Fuzzy Set Site Classes based on elevation,
slope, and precipitation. 5 Site Classes
1. High-elevation, cold water sites2. Mid-elevation, semi-cold, high gradient, drier3. Low/mid-elevation, transitional temperature, low
gradient, drier4. Low-elevation, warm water, low gradient, dry5. Mid-elevation, semi-cold, low gradient, moist
Status of Division Work
Multi-Metric Index (MMI) Based on benthic macroinvertebrates MMI score between 0 and 100 High index (Site Classes 1-3)
– Clinger Taxa– EPT Taxa– Predator/Shredder Taxa– HBI– Total Taxa
Status of Division Work
Low index (Site Classes 4-5)– Insect Taxa– Non-Insect Percent of Taxa– Coleoptera Percent– Predator/Shredder Taxa– Sensitive Plains Families– Clinger/Sprawler percent
Still figuring out thresholds
Status of Division Work
Observed over Expected Taxa (O/E) Presented some information on the Multivariate
Predictive Model that would be used to develop the Expected portion of this ratio.
April 2009 Workgroup Meeting should address this in more detail.
Basic idea – the closer the ratio is to 0, the more impaired the stream.
Unanswered Questions
What happens once they have the MMI and O/E? If they find that a segment (or portion of a segment) is
below the MMI threshold or the O/E is less than 1, what does that mean to a discharger?
How can a person figure out what is causing the impact to aquatic life?
Integrated Impact Analysis
WERF project (partly funded by EPA) to distinguish the relative impact of chemistry and habitat on aquatic life.
Teamed with GEI (Chadwick) and Risk Sciences (Tim Moore).
Has been used in Santa Ana UAA, Arid West work, and is currently being implemented by the Southeastern Wisconsin Watershed Trust.
Integrated Impact Analysis
Chemical Physical
Biological
++
==
IIA – The Gist
Uses existing statistical methods– Principle Components Analysis– All Possible Regressions– Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection
(CHAID) Results identify key stressors and their relative
impact. So . . . if the state identifies a stream segment or site
as impacted (through O/E or MMI), IIA can help determine what is causing that impact.
Basic Steps of IIA
MODEL
Apply Basic Statistics
Identify Key Stressor andResponse Variables
Rank Variables According to Relative Impact
Repeat Cycle if More Variables Are Needed
Fit Equation to Describe Interactions Between Stressors
and Response
Step 1Apply Basic Statistics
Perform basic descriptive statistics and develop graphics
Normalize data as needed – develop new descriptive statistics and new graphics
Compile a correlation matrix
Water Chemistry Basic Statistics
Habitat Basic Statistics
• Looking for correlations (≥0.6).
• Correlated variables can act as surrogates for each other.
Step 2Identify Key Stressor and Response Variables
Identify key independent stressor variables and relationships between variables using:– Principle Components Analysis (PCA) – All Possible Regressions– Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection
(CHAID) Iterative process that systematically removes
variables from the larger pool of variables.
Principal Components Analysis
Useful in determining how variables relate to one another – how they move in space.
If variables generally move together, one variable can act as a surrogate for the other(s).
Principal Components Analysis
• Look at values with an absolute value ≥0.6.
• A component in PCA is a group of variables that move in the same direction.
• Generally, the variable with the highest score is identified as the surrogate.
• Rerun to limit number of stressors to 6 and responses to 2 or 3.
strongest
Principal Components Analysis
All Possible Regressions
Combines one response with many stressor variables into models using all combinations of the stressor variables.
Look at all combinations to see what combinations explain the greatest amount of variance with the lowest error.
Look for lowest variable count that explains the most variance.
All Possible Regressions
All Possible Regressions
Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID)
Identifies both linear and non-linear relationships between variables.
Non-parametric technique, so data should not be transformed.
Robust to missing data points.
NH3 range
Macroinvertebrates
P/Channel Range
Macroinvertebrates
Step 3Rank Variables According to Relative Impact
Develop matrix of key independent stressor variables and relationships found in Step 2
Repeat Steps 2 and 3 until the two most influential independent stressor variables are identified for each dependent response variable
Rank Variables According to Relative Impact
Develop a matrix of response variables and their corresponding “important” stressor variables for each of the 3 analyses.
Look for stressors identified by multiple analyses and sort by number of analyses in common.
To help with sorting, refer back to the analyses and how strong the relationships are between the stressor and response variables.
Matrix of Ranked Stressors for Each Response
Step 4Fit Equation to Describe Interactions Between Stressors and Response
Use three-dimensional modeling program to identify specific non-linear relationship transformations
Fit Equation
Step 5Repeat Cycle if More Variables Are Needed
Enter the residuals calculated for the response variable into a new column in dataset.
The residuals are the remainder of the of the response variable after the variability caused by the 2 stressor variables is removed.
Repeat steps 2-4 to identify the next 2 important stressor variables.
Residuals From Equation Fitting
IIA Gives You . . .
An ordered list of stressors that are causing an impact on the response variables.
A model to help predict how the response variables will change based on a change in the stressor.
An understanding of whether habitat is playing a role in limiting the response variable.
A means to make sense of what the O/E and MMI metrics are showing and how that could relate to your discharge.
Questions