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DOI: 10.4018/IJCWT.2019010102 International Journal of Cyber Warfare and Terrorism Volume 9 • Issue 1 • January-March 2019 Copyright©2019,IGIGlobal.CopyingordistributinginprintorelectronicformswithoutwrittenpermissionofIGIGlobalisprohibited. 19 Cyberpeacekeeping: New Ways to Prevent and Manage Cyberattacks A. Walter Dorn, Canadian Forces College, Toronto, Canada Stewart Webb, DefenceReport, Salt Spring Island, Canada ABSTRACT Cybersecurityiscomingtotheforefrontoftheconcernsofnations,organizationsandindividuals. Governmentagencies,bankingsystemsandbusinesseshavebeencrippledbycriminalandmalicious cyberattacks.Therearemanyexamplesofcyberattacksinregionsoftensionsandarmedconflict.There arenoimpartialinternationalmeanstoinvestigatetheclaimsandcounter-claimsaboutcyberattacks. Theinternationalcommunitymorebroadlylacksawaytodealwithcyberattacksinaconcertedmanner. Anewapproachandcapabilityshouldbeconsideredforcertaincircumstances:cyberpeacekeeping. Peacekeepinghasproveneffectiveinphysicalspace,andmanyofthesameprinciplesandmethods couldalsobeappliedincyberspace,withsomeadjustments.Itcouldhelppreventglobalattacks,and ifanattackweretobesuccessful,itcouldassistwithrecoveryandconductimpartialinvestigations touncovertheperpetrators.ThepossibilitiesofacyberpeacekeepingteamattheUnitedNationsto makecyberspacemoresecurearewellworthexploring. KeyWoRdS Cyber Operations, Cyberpeacekeeping, Cyberterrorism, Peacekeeping, Tallinn Manual 1. INTRodUCTIoN 1.1. The Challenge Theworldiseverincreasinglyreliantoninternet-connectivetechnology.Computerspermeatealmost everyfacetofhumanlifeinmostpartsoftheworld,connectingpeopleinwaysthatcouldnothavebeen imagined,withthedevelopingworldbecomingconnectedatthefastestrate.Theleveloftechnology andglobalintegrationisstaggeringevencomparedtojust20yearsago.Thisinterconnectivityisa causenotonlyofcelebrationbutalsoofdeepconcernforsecurity,aswhatmakeshumanlifeeasier andmoreefficientalsogivesrisetosignificantvulnerabilitiesandthreats,eventhepotentialfora massivedownfall. Attacksonglobalinterconnectivityhavebecomeareality.Deliberateattacksareconductedby statesorstate-sponsoredentitiesorgroupsornon-stateandcriminalactorswhoseektoinfiltrate andbringdownsitesandaltertheinstructionsthatcomputersgivetoindustrialmachinery,suchas centrifuges,damsandevenelectricpowergrids(UnitedStatesComputerEmergencyReadinessTeam,

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Page 1: Cyberpeacekeeping - Walter Dorn...Thewidespreadandlarge-scaleDDOSattackcampaignwasunleashed. ... Law Applicable to Cyberwarfare(henceforthTallinnManual,currentlyinversion2.0),thelegalities

DOI: 10.4018/IJCWT.2019010102

International Journal of Cyber Warfare and TerrorismVolume 9 • Issue 1 • January-March 2019

Copyright©2019,IGIGlobal.CopyingordistributinginprintorelectronicformswithoutwrittenpermissionofIGIGlobalisprohibited.

19

Cyberpeacekeeping:New Ways to Prevent and Manage CyberattacksA. Walter Dorn, Canadian Forces College, Toronto, Canada

Stewart Webb, DefenceReport, Salt Spring Island, Canada

ABSTRACT

Cybersecurityiscomingtotheforefrontoftheconcernsofnations,organizationsandindividuals.Governmentagencies,bankingsystemsandbusinesseshavebeencrippledbycriminalandmaliciouscyberattacks.Therearemanyexamplesofcyberattacksinregionsoftensionsandarmedconflict.Therearenoimpartialinternationalmeanstoinvestigatetheclaimsandcounter-claimsaboutcyberattacks.Theinternationalcommunitymorebroadlylacksawaytodealwithcyberattacksinaconcertedmanner.Anewapproachandcapabilityshouldbeconsideredforcertaincircumstances:cyberpeacekeeping.Peacekeepinghasproveneffectiveinphysicalspace,andmanyofthesameprinciplesandmethodscouldalsobeappliedincyberspace,withsomeadjustments.Itcouldhelppreventglobalattacks,andifanattackweretobesuccessful,itcouldassistwithrecoveryandconductimpartialinvestigationstouncovertheperpetrators.ThepossibilitiesofacyberpeacekeepingteamattheUnitedNationstomakecyberspacemoresecurearewellworthexploring.

KeyWoRdSCyber Operations, Cyberpeacekeeping, Cyberterrorism, Peacekeeping, Tallinn Manual

1. INTRodUCTIoN

1.1. The ChallengeTheworldiseverincreasinglyreliantoninternet-connectivetechnology.Computerspermeatealmosteveryfacetofhumanlifeinmostpartsoftheworld,connectingpeopleinwaysthatcouldnothavebeenimagined,withthedevelopingworldbecomingconnectedatthefastestrate.Theleveloftechnologyandglobalintegrationisstaggeringevencomparedtojust20yearsago.Thisinterconnectivityisacausenotonlyofcelebrationbutalsoofdeepconcernforsecurity,aswhatmakeshumanlifeeasierandmoreefficientalsogivesrisetosignificantvulnerabilitiesandthreats,eventhepotentialforamassivedownfall.

Attacksonglobalinterconnectivityhavebecomeareality.Deliberateattacksareconductedbystatesorstate-sponsoredentitiesorgroupsornon-stateandcriminalactorswhoseektoinfiltrateandbringdownsitesandaltertheinstructionsthatcomputersgivetoindustrialmachinery,suchascentrifuges,damsandevenelectricpowergrids(UnitedStatesComputerEmergencyReadinessTeam,

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2018;IndustrialControlSystemsCyberEmergencyResponseTeam,2016).Alreadywehaveseentheinternet,includingthepartsofthedeep/darkweb,usedtoinciteriotsandeventoinfluencethecourseofnationalelections.Forinstance,newevidenceiscontinuallyemergingofRussianattemptsto interfere in numerous elections, including thoseof theUnitedStates andFrance (Greenburg,2017;Pope,2018).ShortlybeforeRussiainvadedGeorgiainAugust2008,itlaunchedabarrageofDistributedDenialofService(DDOS)attack,makingGeorgianmilitarymovementsandoperationssomuchmoredifficultanddangerous(Markoff,2008).TheUnitedStatesandIsraellikelyintroducedmalwaretocausebreakdowninIraniancentrifugesatNatanz.Theseexamplesshowhowcyberattackshavetranslatedintokineticdamage.Oneproblemisthat,despitetheeffects,attributionisdifficultandinternationalmeansforimpartialinvestigationarelacking.Examplesofattacksareplenty,buteffectiveresponsesarefewandmodest.

Atpresent,theworldreliesonnationalsecurityservicesandcommercialcompaniestohandlenational cybersecurity, and there is no internationalbody toprovide some formof internationalcybersecurity.While a fewcountries aredevelopingadvancedcybersecuritymeasures, they stillremainvulnerableandmostcountriesoftheworldhavelimitedcapacitytorespondtocyberthreats.Moreover,therehasnotbeenacoordinatedinternationalefforttoaddresscybersecurityorcreatemeasuresofcommonorcollectivesecurityinglobalcyberspace.Withmanycasesofinternationalandintranationalconflict,cyberattackshavethepotentialofunsettlinganalreadyfragilepeace.Thispaperseekstoexplorenewmeansofaddressingcybersecurity,buildingonthecharacteristicsandsuccessesofpeacekeepinginphysicalspace.ThepaperproposesthattheestablishmentandactivitiesofaUNcyberpeacekeepingunitcouldlessenthethreatofconflicts,helprecovery,maintainbalanceandimprovecyberrelationsinawiderangeofscenarios.Examplesfromthepastthreatscanhelpillustratethethreatsandthetypesofcaseswherecyberpeacekeepingcouldhelp.

2. eXAMPLeS ANd MULTILATeRAL ReSPoNSeS

In2007,theEstoniacasedemonstratedhowextensivelycyberattackscouldaffectanentirecountry.TheattackwaslikelyinresponsetotheremovalofaSoviet-ErastatueoftheBronzeSoldierofTallinn.Thisshowedhowactionsinphysicalspacecanhaveramificationsincyberspace.TheremovalofthestatuerepresentedtheshiftawayfromEstonia’srecentRussianhistoryanddomination.Russianotonlyprotestedbut,inalllikelihood,supportedamassivecyberattack.Animpartialdeterminationofresponsibilitywaslacking,andRussiacouldeasilydismissandignoretheallegations.ButitcouldincreaseitsthreateningpowerfromthesuspicionswhilealsopunishingEstoniaseverely.

Thewidespreadandlarge-scaleDDOSattackcampaignwasunleashed.Bankswereshutdown,governmentemployeeswereunabletosendemailstooneanotherandthemediafounditdifficulttopublishstories.RegularlifeinEstoniaturnedtoconfusion,probablywithafewfinalstrokesofakeyboardfaraway.Onlyaftermucheffortwerecomputerservicesrestored.

InconsequenceEstonia,whichhadjoinedtheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)in2004,offeredtohostanewNATOcyberdefencecentre.TheNATOCooperativeCyberDefenceCentreofExcellence(NATOCCDCOE)wasestablishedin2008asamultinationalandinterdisciplinaryhubofcyberdefenceexpertisebasedinEstonia’scapital,Tallinn.1AlthoughthecentrewascreatedtohelpmeetthecollectivedefenceneedsforitsNATOmembers,theNATOCCDCOEdevelopedtheworld’sfirst,andmostin-depth,analysisontheinternationallawapplicabletocyberattacksinanarmedconflictsituation.2DespitetheimportantcommentaryintheTallinn Manual on International Law Applicable to Cyberwarfare(henceforthTallinnManual,currentlyinversion2.0),thelegalitiesofwhatconstitutesacyberattackandappropriateresponseshavenotbeenfullyflushedoutyet.AndtheNATOCOEcannotbeconsideredanimpartialinvestigatororupholderofanyinternationalcyberlaw,especiallysinceitisbiasedinfavourofNATOandWesterncountries.

A small but more important legal step had been made earlier in Europe. The Council ofEurope drew up in 2001 the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime, the first international treaty

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regardingcybercrime.TheBudapestConventionwasthefirstinternationalattemptofoutliningthelegaldefinitionsconcerningcybercrimes,whichincludedillegalaccess,interceptionofdata,datainterference,computer-relatedfraudandforgeryandotheroffences.AnAdditionalProtocoltotheConventionenteredintoforcein2003,addingthedisseminationofracistandxenophobicmaterialtothelistofcybercrimes(CouncilofEurope,2003).TheglaringcriticismwiththeBudapestConventionisthatithasnotbeencontinuallyupdatedtokeepupwithevolvingthreatsandtechnology(Celik,2017,p.106).InorderfortheConventiontobeeffective,thereneedstobeanevaluationschedulesonewthreatsandtechnologycanbeadded.

TheTallinn ManualdoesnothavethelegalstatureoftheBudapestConventionbutitdoesdealwithawiderrangeofcyberattacksandcyberwarfareissues.Itisanauthoritativebutnotaunanimouslegalinterpretationwhenitcomestothedefinitionsandlimitationsoncyberwarfare.WithinfiveyearsoftheTallinnManual1.0,asecondversionwaspublishedandaddressedsomeconcernsraisedafterthepublicationofthefirstManual(Jensen,2017,p.738).Eventuallymanyoftherulesexploredinthemanualwillneedtobetranslatedintopreciselegalinstruments.

Theconsequencesofcyberattackscanbedire,evencripplingforanattackedstate.Andtheyare happening against NATO member states. But because of the lack of an immediate physicalthreat,NATOiswaryoftriggeringtheorganization’sArticle5,whichcallsforNATOmemberstocometothecollectivedefenceofoneormorememberswhenareunderattack.So,cyberattacksonNATOcountriesandmoregenerallyhavebecomeamoresubtlewayofcausinghavocwithoutmuchchanceofretaliation(Mustonen,2015).This,ofcourse,isthechallengeofmaintaining,orbuilding,peaceandlawenforcementbetweentostates.Impartialinvestigationandprosecutionfollowedbyenforcementislacking.

Otherregionalorganizationsarewrestlingwithmeanstosecurethecyberdomain,andsmallstepshavebeentaken.In2004,theOrganizationofAmericanStates(OAS)adoptedaresolutiontitled“TheInter-AmericanIntegralStrategytoCombatThreatstoCyberSecurity,”whichplacedcybersecurityundertherealmoftheOAS’Inter-AmericanCommitteeagainstTerrorismandcalledforgreaterregionalcooperation(OrganizationofAmericanStates,2004).TheOAScreatedComputerSecurityIncidentResponseTeams(CSIRTs)thathandle“alert,watch,andwarning”responsibilitiesineachmemberstate(OAS,2018).Similarly,fortheShanghaiCooperationOrganization,whichiscomprisedofChina,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Russia,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,IndiaandPakistan,aimstoimprovethepolitical,economicandsecurityrelations,includingcybersecurity,amongstitsmembers.In2009,theSCOcametoan“AgreementonCooperationintheFieldofInternationalInformation Security” (Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 2008). This Agreement lays thefoundationsfortheSCOtocounterdestructivecyberattacksononeofitsmemberstates.Onceagain,itisnotanimpartialinternationalbodybutagroupingofstates,heavilyinfluencedbyregionalpoliticalagendasandseekingsomemeasuresforcyberdefence.

Thoughnotapproachingtheproblemgloballyorimpartially,theincorporationofcyberdefenceinsuchmultilateralallianceshighlightstheseriousnessofcyberthreats.Infact,smallcyberattacksmightevencausewidercyberwars,iftheattacksescalatetoalliance-levelresponses.Thereisalsothe realpossibility that amajor cyberattackcould incite a conventionalmilitary response in thephysicalworld,particularlyincaseswherecyber-kineticweaponslikeStuxnet(W32.Stuxnet,2017)aredeployed.Meansandmodelsforcyber-de-escalationneedtobeconsidered.Undoubtedly,someofthelessonsandpracticesfromconflictmanagementbetweennationsandbetweenarmedpartiescanapplyincyberspace.Oneproposaltoexploreispeaceoperationsincyberspaceorcyberpeacekeeping.

3. KeePING THe PeACe IN CyBeRSPACe

Cyberpeackeepers,possiblyworkingfortheUnitedNationsormandatedbyit,couldpatrolandactincyberspaceinasimilarfashionascurrentUNpeacekeeperspatrolandactinselectedconflictzonesoftheworld.Cyberpeacekeeperscouldinvestigatemajorattacksandhackingeventsinaccordancewith

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theirspecificmandates––narroworbroad.Liketheircurrentphysicalcounterparts,theycouldbetaskedtoreducetensionsbetweenspecificnationsorotherconflictingparties,preventescalationofcyberwars,andhelpcatchglobalcybercriminals.Theycouldevenassistwithrebuildinggovernmentalcomputersystemsorcriticalinfrastructure,suchasfinancialandmediaservices,afteradamagingattack.Eventually,internationalactioncouldbetakentohelpenforcenewcyberrulesafterimpartialdeterminationsofthesourcesormodesofanattackaremade.Allthesemeansarecurrentlylackingintheweaklyprotectedcyberspace.

Theproposal is relativelynew (Dorn, 2017)3 but therewas already somemovement in thisdirectionatUNheadquarters.In2013,theUNGeneralAssemblyexaminedtheincreasingsecurityriskofinformationandcommunicationtechnologies(ICT)affectingthesecurityenvironment(UnitedNationsGeneralAssembly,2013).Alsoin2013,theChiefExecutivesBoardforCoordinationadoptedsevenprinciplestohelpmemberstates“respondtocybercrimeandcybersecurityneedsintheMemberStates”and“focusonassistingtheMemberStatestotakeevidence-basedaction”(ChiefExecutivesBoardforCoordination,2014).4

TheUN’sOfficeofInformationandCommunicationsTechnology(OICT)createdin2016a“DigitalBlueHelmets”(DBH)unitto“enhancecybersecuritypreparedness,resilienceandresponse,”mostlyforprotectionof theUnitedNationsanditsagencies(UnitedNations,2017a).TheOICTconductedresearchintopossiblecyberthreatstotheUN’sSustainableDevelopmentGoals.Ithasenvisioned DBH centres to provide the necessary “interdisciplinary cyber-security support andteachingcentres[to]bringtogetherspecialistsfromaroundtheglobetoaddressavarietyofIT-relatedissues”(UnitedNations,2017b).WiththeDBHnameincorporatingtheterm“BlueHelmets”(i.e.,aninformalnameforpeacekeepers),itforetellsofpossibilitythattheunitcouldpossiblyprevent,mitigateanddealwithglobalcyberattacksinthefuture.

TheDBHhasnotyetassistedgovernmentstoinvestigatecyberattacksorhelppreventattacksbutithashelpedmakeUNpeacekeepingoperationsmoresecureandhelpedcertainUNagencies,suchasUNOfficeonDrugsandCrime.

Establishinganinternationalcyberforensicsteamisnecessaryforthecyberpeacekeepingconcept.ItcouldbebasedontheDBHteamthatisnowgraduallydevelopingmoreexpertise.ManyattacksaredonethroughhackerswhomayormaynothaveformalaffiliationswithgovernmentsandthosehackersoftenmaskorchangetheirIPaddress,whichmakesithardertoidentifythem.AsBrenner(2007,p.420)asserts,determiningwherecyberattacksoriginate“cantakemonthsorevenyearswhendigitalevidenceisfragileandcandisappearbythetimetheinvestigatorsobtaintheassistancetheyneed.”TheDBHteamcouldundertakearolethatwouldhelpwiththeinvestigationofacyberattackwhen requested.Thiscould follow theexampleofothergovernmentalorganizationssuchas theNationalCyberSecurityCentre(NCSG)intheUK,orEuropol’sEC3.ThenewlyformedCanadianCentreforCyberSecurity(CCCS)mayalsobeapotentialmodelwheretheCCCScollaboratesnotonlywiththeprivatesector,butalsothoseinacademia(CommunicationsSecurityEstablishment,2018).Thesegovernmentalorganizationsprovidesupportforcybercrimeinvestigations.

AsoutlinedbyRobinson,etal(2018,p.3),afutureDBHteamcouldbecomprisedofpersonnelassigned by Cyber-Contributing Countries (CCCs), Cyber-Contributing Organizations (CCOs),volunteerexpertsandUNcyberstaff.Thismixofcyberstaffloanedandvettedfromvariouscountries,internationalorganizations,theprivatesector,non-governmentalorganizationsandacademiacouldengage in selected projects according to their expertise and impartiality. Although the pool ofpotentialpersonnelmayappearlarge,findingwelltrained,andspecialisedstafffromcountriesandorganizationsmaybeachallenge.However,theUnitedNationshasovercomesuchproblemsinthepastwhenassemblingpeacekeepingoperations,fact-findingmissionsandinspectionbodies.

In the future, as cyberpeacekeepers gain experience and help from advanced cyber nations(includingexpertsonloan,asisdoneinphysicalpeacekeeping),theycouldhelpinreal-timetostopcyberattacks,mitigatetheimpactofsuchattacksandassistinre-establishingnormalcybyreversingtheeffectsoftheattacks.Cyberpeacekeeperscouldalsomonitortheircyberareaofresponsibilityto

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theextentpossibletopromotealastingcyberpeacebetweentwocountries(Robinson,etal.,2018,p.6).TheUNcyberrescuecrewcouldhelpmembersoftheinternationalcommunityintimesofurgentneed.

TheUNwouldhave todefine theparameters of the cyberpeacekeeping force and its cyberareas of responsibility, which could change with demand. It would have to define the how thecyberpeacekeepingunit“couldoperateinconflictandnon-conflictareasincyberspace”(Akatyev&James,2017,p.33).TheUNcyberpeacekeepingforcecouldbeexpandedtoinvestigatemassbot-generatedpropaganda.Inanycase,theforcewouldneedthecooperationofkeyUNmemberstatesandnationalorganizations.

Therecouldalsobearesearchanddevelopmentdimension.Exploitsandmalwareseekweaknesseswithincodeandevenwithhumannature—forinstance,simplecasesofnotupdatingsoftwareandwebsiteplugins,orevenclickingonanattachmentinane-mailwithoutthinkingoftherisks.Onepossibilitywouldbetoassistinthedevelopmentofcyberprotocolsforgovernment,andothersectors.Thiscouldstartsimplywithseminarsonstraightforwardmeasuresinensuringthatapotentialoutbreakcanbecontained.ItwilltaketimefortheUNandtheinternationalcommunitytocreatebindingglobalstandardsandrules,startingthoughdeclarationsandresolutionsandmovingontotreaties,tomakecertaincyberattacksillegalglobally.5Inaddition,cybersecuritymeasurescouldbetakenbetweenstatesbilaterallyorinsmallgroups,withcyberpeacekeepersplayingaroleintheimplementation.

Of course, oneof the limitationsof the international order, and an avenue that needs tobedevelopedfurther,isenforcement.Adefensivecyberforcewouldrequirerulesofengagementthatmayormaynotbelimitedtothedigitalrealm.AdefensiveactioncouldbetosimplyblockattackscomingfromacertainIPaddressorgroupsofIPaddresses,butitcouldalsomeandealingwiththeattackersincyberspaceoreventhephysicalseizureoftheircomputerequipmentthroughnationallawenforcementagenciesafterdeterminingtheattack’spointoforigin.AnoverviewofthepotentialrangeofcyberpeacekeepingtasksisgiveninFigure1.

AcyberpeacekeepingoperationcouldbeapprovedbytheSecurityCouncil,justastheCouncilapprovesapeacekeepingoperationinthephysicaldomain.Inaddition,acyberoperationcanbeapprovedalongsideaphysicaloperationorbeapartofit,particularlyifthephysicalconflictincludescyberattacks.Iftheconflictisentirelyinthecyberrealm,apurelycybermissioncouldbeinstituted.WhileUNactionagainstmajorpowersisunlikely,duetotheirveto,therehavebeenimportantcaseswheretheyhavecalledforUNassistancetoresolvedisputesbetweenthem,e.g.,theCubanMissileCrisisof1962(DornandPauk,2009).Moreover,therearecasesinconflictregionsandevencurrentpeacekeepingoperationswhereacyberpeacekeepinginitiativeisneeded.Theprevalenceofthese

Figure 1. Possible UN cyberpeacekeeping activities

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cyberattacksinthepresent-dayworldalsoprovidesincentivefortheaffectedcountriestoseekoutassistancefromacyberpeacekeepingthirdparty.

4. CyBeRATTACKS IN CoNFLICT ReGIoNS

Ifwelookattheattacksofthepast,wecanseecaseswhereacyberpeacekeepingcapabilitywouldhavebeenuseful.Forinstance,NorthKoreaisbelievedtobebehindcyberattacksdirectedatbanksinatleast18countries,accordingtotheRussianfirmKaspersky(Pagliery,2017),whichitselfissuspectedofbeingundertheinfluence,ifnotcontrol,ofanauthoritarianstate(Robertson&Riley,2017).So,onceagain,animpartialmeansofinvestigationwouldbehelpfultoexaminethepreliminarydataandinvestigatefurther.Justasphysicalpeacekeepingusessoldiersborrowedfromnations,thecyberpeacekeeperteamscouldconsistofcyber-warriorsandexpertsdrawtogetherfromnationstatesforaparticularmissionortimeperiod.

AUNcyberpeacekeepingforcecanassistintrackingdownthevectorsofattackandevenpointoforiginandcreatetheframeworkforlegalordiplomaticaction.Thethreat,andrealityof,cyberattacksare a global threat and reality. States should bear a degree of responsibility if an internationalcyberattack, like any attack, originates from their state (Couzigou, 2018).But great expertise isneededtopinpointthecourseofattacks.

Israelwastargetedinacyberattackin2009duringitsoffensiveintheGazaStrip.Itisbelievedthatitwascarriedout“byacriminalorganizationfromtheformerSovietUnion,andpaidforbyHamasorHezbollah”(Pfeffer,2009).Butthesearesimplyallegations,onesthatneedtobeinvestigatedandverified.Particularly,iftheallegationsareusedtolaunchmilitaryattacks,itisimportanttohavesomeinternationalverificationprocess.Suchaverificationprocessneedstobeindependentlyrunbyanimpartialbody,suchastheUnitedNations,evenifitreliesofinputsfrommembernations.

Cyber incidentscanalsoaffectcountries thathostUNpeacekeepingmissions.For instance,cyberattacks started in the late1990sbetween IndiaandPakistan,whichhost inKashmiraUNobservermission(Vatis,2001),whichitselfmustbeprotected.Theattacksbetweenthenationsinthe1990smaybesimpleandcrudecomparedtowhatishappeningnowglobally,butIndianandPakistanihackershavecontinuedtohonetheirskills.InJanuary2017,IndianhackersarebelievedtohaveattackedMultanInternationalandKarachiairportwebsitesandeveninstalledransomware,amalwarethatencryptsacomputer’sharddriveuntilaransomispaid,usuallyinbitcoinsorotherdigital currency (Shekhar, 2017).This should cause concern, because if an international airportweretobelockedoutoftheircomputerserversitwouldcausehavocandincreasesignificantlythechanceofcasualties.Thenboththephysicalandthecyberpeacekeepingforcewouldneedtoactinaconcertedfashion.Inaddition,apeacekeepingmissioncouldalsofinditselfsubjecttoattack,soastaunchcyberdefencewillbeneeded.

Oneofthemainconcernsofpoliticiansandsecurityofficialsisamajorcyberattackthatcripplesthe country’s power grid, causing many additional catastrophes. A glimpse of this was seen inDecember2015,whenacyberattackonUkrainianutilitiesresultedinapoweroutagethataffectedmorethan225,000customers.TheUSgovernmentlaterconcludedthatthepowergridshutdownwasacyberattack.iSightpartners,nowFireEye,concludedthatitwascarriedoutbyaRussiangroup,AdvancedPersistentThreat,referredtobythecybersecuritycommunityas“Sandworm”(Volz,2016).AstudydonebytheElectricityInformationSharingandAnalysisCenter(2016,p.5)concludedthattheperpetrators“perform[ed]long-termreconnaissanceoperationsrequiredtolearntheenvironmentandexecuteahighlysynchronized,multistage,multisiteattack.”Thisattackwasplannedforsometimebeforeitwasexecuted.Regardless,theverificationprocessofwhichactorcarriesoutthese,orfuture,cyberattacksisessential.

Asmentioned,theverificationoftheattack’spointoforigincanbeastartingpointforthelocalandinternationalauthoritiestoactagainstsuchperpetrators—provideditwasnotsanctionedbyaveto-wieldingmemberoftheUNSecurityCouncil.Buteventhatstate’svetoofacyberinvestigation

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couldpointtoitsinvolvementorpatronage.Andifthecyberattackwassanctionedbyanotherstateoranon-stateactor,suchasaterroristgroup,additionalactionscanbetakentomitigateorpunishthisactivity.

Unfortunately,theglobalcyberthreatisunlikelytodiminish,butwillincreasewithtimeinboththequantityandcomplexityofattacks,unlesssomemeansarefoundtopreventit.ThisisespeciallytrueforthevolatileMiddleEastandfortheongoing(anddeepening)conflictwithIran.

5. SToPPING eSCALATIoN To A FULL CyBeRWAR

ManybecameawareofthecyberthreatsagainstnationsaftertheattackonEstoniain2007.Theworld’sattentionwasrefocusedin2010ontargetedattacksbywhatwouldotherwiseseemtobeaninertvirus–StuxnetthattargetedIran’snuclearprogrammeattheNatanzfacility.Thisvirusspreaditselftoseveralcountries,butifaninfectedcomputerwasnotthetarget,itwoulddonothing.

StuxnettargetedProgrammableLogicControllers(PLC)whichareusuallyusedforindustrialpurposes(W32.Stuxnet,2017).TheprevalenceoftheconcentrationofthemalwareinIranandhowthemalwaretargetedPLCsbuiltbytheGermancompanySiemensdemonstratedthatthismalwarewasasurgicalweapontocrippleIran’snuclearprogrambygoingafterthecentrifugesatoneofthecountry’snuclearfacilities.Stuxnetcanbeseenasanimprovementorcomplementtoconventionalattacksduetotheprecisionandreductionofhumancasualties.AfterhundredsofUraniumcentrifugesweredamaged,suspicionsarosethattheUnitedStatesandIsraelwerebehindtheStuxnetattack(Katz,2010).Inanycase,forcesfromwithinIraninitiatedattacksoftheirown.

In2012and2013, twomajor attacks seem tohaveoriginated from Iran, signalling that thecountrydevelopeditsowncyberwarfarecapabilityinthewakeoftheStuxnetattacks.In2012,over35,000computersofSaudiArabia’sArmacocompanyhadtheirdatapartiallywipedordestroyed(Mount,2012).Theninaseparateattackin2012,halfadozenAmericanbanksweretargeted,andtheircustomerswereunabletologintotheiraccountsonline(Perlroth,2012).In2013,hackerswereable togainaccess tocommandandcontrolsystemofa20-footflood-controldamontheBlindBrookinRyeBrook,NewYork(Thompson,2016).Thehackingofthisdamwouldnothavecausedsizeabledamageifthedamwatersweretohavebeenreleased,butitdidraiseconcernsintheUnitedStatesgovernmentaboutthepotentialramificationsifahackerweretoseizecontrolofalarger,morecriticalinfrastructure–somethingsimilartowhatoccurredinUkrainetwoyearslater,whenasizeableportionofUkraine’spowergridwasshutdownbecauseofsuccessfulhacking.

Althoughnationsrarelyadmittocarryingoutcyberattacks,theabovegivesaglimpseofwhatafullcyberwarcouldentail.Whenthesourcesofattackscanbeidentified,oratleastevidencegathered,byanimpartialactor,thechancesofanattackandofescalationwouldbeless.Andthepossibilitiesforinternationalinterventionwouldbegreater.Theremaybesituationswhereinterventionisessential,suchasafull-scalecyberattackonacountry’scyber-linkedinfrastructure,e.g.,powerplants,airandroadtrafficcontrols,flooddefencecontrolsandthefinancialsector.

CyberattackscarriedoutintheMiddleEastcouldpossiblyescalatetoapossiblepointofnoreturn.TheUnitedStatesandIsrael,withIraninopposition,couldhavetargetedsensitiveandcriticalinfrastructureinaseriesofadditionalcyberattackexchanges.Themitigatingforceinthiswastherestraintdemonstratedbythethreecountries.However,whathappensifthestatesinvolvedinthenextexchangeofcyberattacksdonotdemonstratethesamelevelofrestraint?AfutureexchangecouldbecomethecyberequivalentoftheCubanMissileCrisis.Inthatcrisis,theinterventionoftheUnitedNationsprovedcrucialtonon-violentconflictresolution(Dorn&Pauk,2009).

Unfortunately,itisnotjuststateactorsthatcandragtwoormorestatesintoacyberconflict;hackergroupscandestabilizetheinternationalcyberorderbycarryingoutattacksoninfrastructureduringtimesofheightenedtensionsbetweentwostates.

This might be mitigated by a cyberpeacekeeping force as it will provide assurances to theinternationalsystemthatthereisacheckandbalancetotheseattacksandanavenuetopursue,and

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helpforvictimsofcyberattacks.Itcanprovidemechanismsthatcanidentifyathreatandpossiblymitigate,andrepair,damagethatwasdone.

6. WHAT WoULd SUCH A FoRCe LooK LIKe?

TheUNcyberpeacekeepingforcemustbemalleableandbeabletosolveavarietyoftheworld’scyberdefenceissues,notmerelyonemalwareorvirusatatime.EspeciallywhenUNmemberstatesfurthercodifyalegalsetofrulesthatclearlydefinewhatacyberattacklookslike,cyberpeacekeepingcouldhelpenforcethoserules.Forexample,thecyberpeacekeeperscouldhelpverifythat,intimesofpeace,nostateattackstheinfrastructureofanotherandthatnationalenforcementmeasuresaretakenbyastateifacitizenwithinthestateisfoundtobetheculprithacker.Tofurtherthepoint:ifaRussianhackerisfoundtobeattackingtheUSgovernment,theRussiangovernmentcouldprovideverifiableassurancestotheUnitedNationsthattheculpritwouldbearrestedanddulyprocessedthroughthelegalsystem.TheUnitedNationscouldthenverifyifthishasoccurred.Thiswill,atleast,putmorepressureongovernmentstoholdhackersaccountable.Ofcourse,itwillneedthesupportofmanyothergovernmentstoapplypressure,astheUnitedNationsseekstodoinmanyareas,suchashumanrights,democracyandsupportofpeaceprocesses.

Cyberpeacekeepingcanbedoneinconjunctionwithregionalgroupsthathavecyberdefenceinitiatives.Through thecooperationof these regional initiatives, suchas thosedoneby regionalorganizations,theUnitedNationscanoutlinewhatanaggressivecyberattackinpeacetimeisonagloballevel.Thiswouldassisttheinternationallegalframeworktodefineacyberattackandthenhelpimplementinternationalresponses.

7. oBSTACLeS

TheprospectforaUNcyberdefenceinitiativedependsonUNmemberstates.Theymustaskforit.Butnationalcyberdefenceandoffencearecloselyguardeddomainsofintelligenceandmilitaryagencies.Bysharingcyberdefensivestrategiesandcodeswithothermembersoftheinternationalcommunity,theUnitedNationsmightmakeperpetratorsmoreawareofthosemeasures.Thesamegoesforidentifyingattacks:therewillbeadaptation.SomememberstatesmightnotwanttheUnitedNationstohavethepowertolaunchinvestigationsintocyberattacksandespionageactivitiesastheywouldbeatriskofbeinguncovered.

Oneofthefundamentalproblemsisthattherearemillionsofcyberattacksamonthanditwouldbedifficulttopreventmanyofthoseattacksbecauseofthesheernumber.However,theUNcyberdefenceinitiativewouldonlybeoneactortoserveasawatchfulguardianincyberspace.Therecouldbepartnershipswithothercyberdefenders,thoughthismightfaceobstacles.Forone,apartnershipwithcertainstatesmaynotbefruitfulsinceforinstance,China,RussiaandtheUnitedStateswouldbehesitanttosharecybersecretsorevenalerttheUNofcyberattacksthattheycarryoutinmostcircumstances.However,theUNcyberdefenceinitiativecouldseekoutpartnershipswithmultilateralorganizationssuchastheShanghaiCooperationOrganizationortheresponseteamscreatedbytheOAS.Whenitcomestopartnershipswithindustry,thisalsomaybefraughtwithconcernsoverstate-influenceaswehaveseenwithKasperskyLabs(Robertson&Riley,2017).Still,therewouldbeplentyofopportunitiestoexplorepartnershipswiththewiderangeofactorsandnations,graduallybuildinganetworkoftrustedexpertise.

TheUnitedNationshasattemptedtodefinewhatcybernormsshouldbefortheworldstage,butthoseeffortshavenotbeenentirelyfruitful.Foryears,theUnitedStateshopedthattheeffortsthatithadputinplacewouldbesufficientasasetofnormsforthegovernanceofthecyberdomain(Grigsby2017,pp.111-112).Russiaarguedthatnewtechnology,suchastheinternet,shouldrequireanewtreaty,buttheUnitedStatesopposedthatposition(p.112).Neithercountrytruststheotherwiththeircyberintentions.In2013,theUNGroupofGovernmentalExpertsonDevelopmentsintheFieldof

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InformationandTelecommunicationsintheContextofInternationalSecurity(GGE)putforwardanumberofcybernorms,forexamplethatinpeacetimenocountryshouldcarryoutcyberattacksonanotherandthatsuchactivityshouldbereported(GGE,2015,p.2).Itisobviousthatabodyneedstobecreatedtowhomsuchreportscanatleastbesent.

ThecreationofacyberpeacekeepingunitattheUnitedNationswouldmeanthatcountriesseekingwaystode-escalateacyberconflictwouldhaveameanstoverifyanagreementor internationalstandards.TheGGE,afterseverallandmarkreports,wasunabletoreachconsensusinJune2017but,in2018,theHigh-levelPanelonDigitalCooperationwasestablished(UnitedNations,2018).Thispanelalsoaimstoimprovedigitalcooperationamongstcountries,privateenterpriseandotherstakeholders.Cyberattackswillundoubtedlybeanissueforthispanelandcyberpeaceoperationscouldserveaspartofthesolution.

Moregenerally,nationshavecededpartoftheirsovereigntytotheUnitedNationswhentheysignedtheUNCharter.TheSecurityCouncilhasbeengiventhelegalrightandresponsibilitytomaintaininternationalpeaceandsecurity.TheSecurityCouncil,andtoalesserextenttheUNGeneralAssembly,hasoften responded toworldcriseswithvarious typesofpeaceoperations.The firstpeacekeepingforce,theUnitedNationsEmergencyForce,wascreatedtorespondtothe1956SuezCrisis,whichithelpedresolve.Alreadyformanyyearspreviously,theinternationalcommunityandtheproposersofUNEFhadwrestledwithhowtoapplymilitaryforceunderinternationalcontrol.Similarly,deliberationsforacyberpeacekeepingrolecanallowtheavenuestobeexploredbeforethecrisisorconflictcriesoutforaUNrole.Acyberpeaceoperation(cyberpeacekeeping)mayserveasthetoolinaworldincreasinglydefinedbycyberinteractions.

Aswehaveseenwiththecreationofregionalcybersecurityinitiativesinregionalorganizations,cybersecurityisrecognized.Buttheyareregionalattempts,notglobalones.HavingaUNcybersecuritypeacekeepingforcemayseemtobeahugeleap,butcaneasilybeasimplesteptowardensuringinternationalpeaceandcybersecurity.

8. CoNCLUSIoN

Therearenumerousavenuesforthenationsoftheworldtocollectivelyengageincyberdefence.TheUnitedNations,astheworldorganizationresponsibleforinternationalpeaceandsecurity,couldbepivotal.Eventhoughtheconceptofdigitalpeacekeepingisnewandnotfullydeveloped,theUnitedNationscanhavearoletomotivatememberstatestolookatcollectivecyberactionthroughtheworldorganization.Cyberattacksarenotgoingaway,buttheywillcontinueandevolveinsophisticationanddamage.TheseattackshavealreadycrippledEstoniain2007andalitanyofwidelyrangingattackshaveoccurredinIndia,Israel,andPakistan,tonameonlyafew.Similarly,theUnitedNationswillneedtoevolve itsapproachtocurrentandnear-futurecyberattacks.NolongercanpeacekeepingoperationsinthephysicalspaceignorecyberthreatsagainstthemissionsoragainsttheconflictingpartiesonthegroundwhomtheUnitedNationsseekstomoderate.Thesafetyoftheinternationalpersonnelinforeignlandscouldbeatstakeasthesecyberattacksbecomemoresophisticated.Similarly,thenationsoftheworldwouldbewisetoexploreUNactionincyberspacetoprotectthemselvescollectivelyandthusmakethepeoplesoftheworldsafer.

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eNdNoTeS

1 Estoniawasawillinghostafter itsufferedamassivecyberattack in2007onitswebsitesandcyberinfrastructure.TheNATOCOEwassetupto“provideacapabilitytoassistalliednations,uponrequest,tocounteracyberattack”(NATOsummitcommunique,Bucharest,April2008).TheCOEroleisto:improve cyber defence interoperability; develop policies, concepts, doctrine, and standards; enhanceinformationsecurityandcyberdefenceeducation;providecyberdefencesupportforexperimentation.Italsoprovidescyberdefencesubjectmatterexperts(SMEs)toNATO,especiallyforcyberdefencetestingandvalidating.

2 TheCOEledandfacilitatedthedraftingoftheinfluentialTallinn Manual on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations(version2.0,CambridgeUniversityPress,2017).Formoreinformation,see:NATOCOECCD.“TallinnManualProcess.”AccessedFebruary8,2017.https://ccdcoe.org/tallinn-manual.html

3 See:NikolayAkatyevandJoshuaI.James,“CyberPeacekeeping,”inDigital Forensics and Cyber Crime,ed.JoshuaL.JamesandFrankBreitinger(Cham:Springer,2015),126-39.MichaelRobinson,HelgeJanicke,andKevinJones,“AnIntroductiontoCyberPeacekeeping,”Computers and Society,October2017.Accessedathttps://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.09616v1.pdf.Dorn,A.W.2017.Cyberpeacekeeping:ANewRolefortheUnitedNations?.Georgetown Journal of International Affairs,18(3),138-146.doi:10.1353/gia.2017.0046

4 Thesevenprinciplescanbeparaphrasedasfollows:(1)Cyberincidentsshouldbedealtwithinaholisticmannerthroughcriminaljusticeandinternationalcooperation;(2)UNentitiesshouldaimtorespondtocybercrimeandcybersecurityneedsinMemberStateswithintheirrespectivemandates.(3).AllUNprogrammingshouldrespecttheprinciplesoftheruleoflawandhumanrights;(4)UNprogrammingshouldfocusonassistingMemberStatestotakeevidence-basedaction;(5)Programmingshouldfostera“whole-of-government”response.(6).SupporttoMemberStatesshouldaimtostrengtheninternationalcooperation; (7)Programming should include efforts to strengthen cooperation between governmentinstitutionsandprivate-sectorenterprises.

5 The2001BudapestConventiononCybercrimeisthefirstinternationaltreatyoncrimescommittedviatheInternetandothercomputernetworks.Itdealswiththingslike“infringementsofcopyright,computer-relatedfraud,childpornographyandviolationsofnetworksecurity.”Ithassomeearlyindicationsofenforcementpowerthroughandsearchproceduresofcomputernetworksandinterception.See:CouncilofEurope.“DetailsofTreatyNo.185–ConventiononCybercrime.”accessedJune12,2017http://www.coe.int/en/web/conventions/full-list/-/conventions/treaty/185.