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06-Jul-10 1 Special Inventory Models Special Inventory Models D For For Operations Management, 9e Operations Management, 9e by by Krajewski/Ritzman/Malhotra Krajewski/Ritzman/Malhotra © 2010 Pearson Education © 2010 Pearson Education PowerPoint Slides PowerPoint Slides by Jeff Heyl by Jeff Heyl Noninstantaneous Replenishment Maximum cycle inventory Item used or sold as it is completed Item used or sold as it is completed Usually production rate, p, exceeds the demand rate, d, so there is a buildup of (p d) units per time period Both p and d expressed in same time interval Buildup continues for Q/p days D – 2 Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

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Page 1: D Special Inventory Models - JUfilesjufiles.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/supplementD.pdf · Krajewski/Ritzman/Malhotra ... The EOQ at a particular price level may be feasible but

06-Jul-10

1

Special Inventory ModelsSpecial Inventory ModelsD

D – 1Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

For For Operations Management, 9eOperations Management, 9e by by Krajewski/Ritzman/Malhotra Krajewski/Ritzman/Malhotra © 2010 Pearson Education© 2010 Pearson Education

PowerPoint Slides PowerPoint Slides by Jeff Heylby Jeff Heyl

Noninstantaneous Replenishment

Maximum cycle inventory

Item used or sold as it is completed Item used or sold as it is completed

Usually production rate, p, exceeds the demand rate, d, so there is a buildup of (p – d) units per time period

Both p and d expressed in same time interval

Buildup continues for Q/p days

D – 2Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

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Production quantityQ

Demand duringry

Noninstantaneous ReplenishmentNoninstantaneous Replenishment

Maximum inventoryImax

p – d

Demand during production interval

On

-han

d in

ven

tor

D – 3Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Production and demand

Demand only

TBO

Time

Figure D.1 – Lot Sizing with Noninstantaneous Replenishment

Noninstantaneous Replenishment

Maximum cycle inventory is:

dpQ

where

p = production rate

d = demand rate

pdp

QdppQ

Imax

D – 4Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Cycle inventory is no longer Q/2, it is Imax /2

Q = lot size

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Noninstantaneous ReplenishmentNoninstantaneous Replenishment

Total annual cost = Annual holding cost + Annual ordering or setup cost

D is annual demand and Q is lot size

d is daily demand; p is daily production rate

g p

SQD

Hp

dpQS

QD

HI

C

22max

D – 5Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

QpQ 22

Noninstantaneous ReplenishmentNoninstantaneous Replenishment

Economic Production Lot Size (ELS): optimal lot size

Derived by calculus

Because the second term is greater than 1, the ELS results in a larger lot size than the EOQ

pDSELS

2

D – 6Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

dpHELS

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4

Finding the Economic Production Finding the Economic Production Lot SizeLot Size

EXAMPLE D.1

A plant manager of a chemical plant must determine the lot size for a particular chemical that has a steady demand of 30 barrelsfor a particular chemical that has a steady demand of 30 barrels per day. The production rate is 190 barrels per day, annual demand is 10,500 barrels, setup cost is $200, annual holding cost is $0.21 per barrel, and the plant operates 350 days per year.

a. Determine the economic production lot size (ELS)

b. Determine the total annual setup and inventory holding cost for this item

D – 7Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

c. Determine the time between orders (TBO), or cycle length, for the ELS

d. Determine the production time per lot

What are the advantages of reducing the setup time by 10 percent?

Finding the Economic Production Finding the Economic Production Lot SizeLot Size

SOLUTION

a. Solving first for the ELS, we get

dpp

HDS

2ELS

barrels 4,873.4

30190190

210200500102

.$

$,

b. The total annual cost with the ELS is

SQD

Hp

dpQC

2

D – 8Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Qp 2

20048734

50010210

19030190

248734

$.,

,.$

.,

828619143091430 .$.$.$

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Finding the Economic Production Finding the Economic Production Lot SizeLot Size

c. Applying the TBO formula to the ELS, we get

days/year 350ELS

TBOELS D

days162 or 162.4

d. The production time during each cycle is the lot size divided by the production rate:

35050010

48734,

.,

D – 9Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

p

ELSdays 26 or 25.6

19048734

.,

Finding the Economic Production Finding the Economic Production Lot SizeLot Size

D – 10Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Figure D.2 – OM Explorer Solver for the Economic Production Lot Size Showing the Effect of a 10 Percent Reduction in Setup Cost

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Application D.1Application D.1

A domestic automobile manufacturer schedules 12 two-person teams to assemble 4.6 liter DOHC V-8 engines per work day. Each team can assemble 5 engines per day. The automobile fi l bl li t l d d f th DOHCfinal assembly line creates an annual demand for the DOHC engine at 10,080 units per year. The engine and automobile assembly plants operate 6 days per week, 48 weeks per year. The engine assembly line also produces SOHC V-8 engines. The cost to switch the production line from one type of engine to the other is $100,000. It costs $2,000 to store one DOHC V-8 for one year.

Wh t i th i l t i ?

D – 11Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

a. What is the economic lot size?

b. How long is the production run?

c. What is the average quantity in inventory?

d. What is the total annual cost?

Application D.1Application D.1

SOLUTION

a. Demand per day = d = 10,080/[(48)(6)] = 35

dpp

HDS

2ELS

385551

356060

0002000100080102

.,,

,,

or 1,555 engines

b. The production run

D – 12Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

b. The production run

pQ

days production 26 or 25.91605551

,

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Application D.1Application D.1

c. Average inventory

engines32435605551

,

dpQImax

d. Total annual cost

engines324602

,

SQ

DH

p

dpQS

Q

DH

IC

22max

p

pQ22

max

D – 13Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

000100555108010

000260

356025551

,$,,

,$,

1482961

231648917647

,,$

,$,$

Quantity Discounts Quantity Discounts

Price incentives to purchase large quantities create pressure to maintain a l i tlarge inventory

Item’s price is no longer fixed If the order quantity is increased enough, then

the price per unit is discounted

A new approach is needed to find the best lot size that balances:

D – 14Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

size that balances: Advantages of lower prices for purchased materials

and fewer orders

Disadvantages of the increased cost of holding more inventory

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Quantity Discounts Quantity Discounts

Total annual cost = Annual holding cost + Annual ordering or setup cost

where P = price per unit

g p+ Annual cost of materials

PDSQD

HQ

C 2

D – 15Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Quantity Discounts Quantity Discounts

Unit holding cost (H) is usually expressed as a percentage of unit price

Th l th it i (P) i th l th it The lower the unit price (P) is, the lower the unit holding cost (H) is

The total cost equation yields U-shape total cost curves There are cost curves for each price level

The feasible total cost begins with the top curve, then drops down curve by curve at the price breaks

D – 16Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

drops down, curve by curve, at the price breaks

EOQs do not necessarily produce the best lot size

The EOQ at a particular price level may not be feasible

The EOQ at a particular price level may be feasible but may not be the best lot size

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TwoTwo--Step Solution ProcedureStep Solution Procedure

Step 1. Beginning with lowest price, calculate the EOQ for each price level until a feasible EOQ is found. It is feasible if it lies in the range gcorresponding to its price. Each subsequent EOQ is smaller than the previous one, because P, and thus H, gets larger and because the larger H is in the denominator of the EOQ formula.

Step 2. If the first feasible EOQ found is for the lowest price level this quantity is the best lot

D – 17Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

lowest price level, this quantity is the best lot size. Otherwise, calculate the total cost for the first feasible EOQ and for the larger price break quantity at each lower price level. The quantity with the lowest total cost is optimal.

Quantity Discounts Quantity Discounts

EOQ 4.00

EOQ 3.50

EOQ 3.00

C for P = $4.00

C for P = $3.50

C for P = $3.00

PD forP = $4.00 PD for

P = $3.50 PD forP = $3.00

Tota

l co

st (

do

llar

s)

First price

Second price

Tota

l co

st (

do

llar

s)

First price

Second price

D – 18Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

(a) Total cost curves with purchased materials added

(b) EOQs and price break quantities

Purchase quantity (Q)0 100 200 300

price break

price break

Purchase quantity (Q)0 100 200 300

price break

price break

Figure D.3 – Total Cost Curves with Quantity Discounts

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Find Find QQ with Quantity Discountswith Quantity Discounts

EXAMPLE D.2

A supplier for St. LeRoy Hospital has introduced quantity discounts to encourage larger order quantities of a specialdiscounts to encourage larger order quantities of a special catheter. The price schedule is

Order Quantity Price per Unit

0 to 299 $60.00

300 to 499 $58.80

500 or more $57.00

D – 19Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

The hospital estimates that its annual demand for this item is 936 units, its ordering cost is $45.00 per order, and its annual holding cost is 25 percent of the catheter’s unit price. What quantity of this catheter should the hospital order to minimize total costs? Suppose the price for quantities between 300 and 499 is reduced to $58.00. Should the order quantity change?

Find Find QQ with Quantity Discountswith Quantity Discounts

SOLUTION

Step 1: Find the first feasible EOQ, starting with the lowest price level:level:

HDS2

EOQ 0057.

units 77

005725000459362

.$..$

A 77-unit order actually costs $60.00 per unit, instead of the $57.00 per unit used in the EOQ calculation, so this EOQ is infeasible. Now try the $58.80 level:

D – 20Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

HDS2

EOQ 8058.

units 76

805825000459362

.$..$

This quantity also is infeasible because a 76-unit order is too small to qualify for the $58.80 price. Try the highest price level:

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Find Find QQ with Quantity Discountswith Quantity Discounts

HDS2

EOQ 0060.

units 75

006025000459362

.$..$

This quantity is feasible because it lies in the range corresponding to its price, P = $60.00

H 006050 .$.

Step 2: The first feasible EOQ of 75 does not correspond to the lowest price level. Hence, we must compare its

D – 21Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

total cost with the price break quantities (300 and 500 units) at the lower price levels ($58.80 and $57.00):

Find Find QQ with Quantity Discountswith Quantity Discounts

PDSQD

HQ

C 2

284579360060004575936

00602502

7575 ,$.$.$.$. C

3825793680580045300936

80582502

300300 ,$.$.$.$. C

9995693600570045936

0057250500

$$$$

D – 22Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

9995693600570045500936

00572502

500500 ,$.$.$.$. C

The best purchase quantity is 500 units, which qualifies for the deepest discount

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Find Find QQ with Quantity Discountswith Quantity Discounts

D – 23Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Figure D.4 – OM Explorer Solver for Quantity Discounts Showing the Best Order Quantity

Application D.2Application D.2

A supplier’s price schedule is:

Order Quantity Price per UnitOrder Quantity Price per Unit

0–99 $50

100 or more $45

If ordering cost is $16 per order, annual holding cost is 20 percent of the purchase price, and annual demand is 1,800 items, what is the best order quantity?

D – 24Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

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Application D.2Application D.2

SOLUTION

Step 1:

2 1680012

HDS2

EOQ 0045.

e)(infeasibl units 80

20451680012

.

,

HDS2

EOQ 0050.

(feasible) units 76

20501680012

.

,

Step 2:

C 75990800150168001

205076

$,

D – 25Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

76C 7599080015016768001

20502

76,$,

,.

100C 73881800145161008001

20452

100,$,

,.

The best order quantity is 100 units

OneOne--Period Decisions Period Decisions

Seasonal goods are a dilemma facing many retailers.

N b bl Newsboy problem

Step 1: List different demand levels and probabilities.

Step 2: Develop a payoff table that shows the profit for each purchase quantity, Q, at each assumed demand level, D.Each row represents a different order

D – 26Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Each row represents a different order quantity and each column represents a different demand.The payoff depends on whether all units are sold at the regular profit margin which results in two possible cases.

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OneOne--Period Decisions Period Decisions

If demand is high enough (Q ≤ D), then all of the cases are sold at the full profit margin, p, during the regular seasonregular season

If the purchase quantity exceeds the eventual demand (Q > D), only D units are sold at the full profit margin, and the remaining units purchased must be disposed of at a loss, l, after the season

Payoff = (Profit per unit)(Purchase quantity) = pQ

D – 27Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

disposed of at a loss, l, after the season

Payoff = –(Demand)Lossperunit

Profit perunit soldduringseason

Amountdisposedof afterseason

OneOne--Period Decisions Period Decisions

Step 3: Calculate the expected payoff of each Q by using the expected value decision rule. For a g pspecific Q, first multiply each payoff by its demand probability, and then add the products.

Step 4: Choose the order quantity Q with the highest expected payoff.

D – 28Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

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Finding Finding QQ for Onefor One--Period DecisionsPeriod Decisions

EXAMPLE D.3

One of many items sold at a museum of natural history is a Christmas ornament carved from wood. The gift shop makes aChristmas ornament carved from wood. The gift shop makes a $10 profit per unit sold during the season, but it takes a $5 loss per unit after the season is over. The following discrete probability distribution for the season’s demand has been identified:

Demand 10 20 30 40 50

Demand Probability 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1

D – 29Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

How many ornaments should the museum’s buyer order?

Finding Finding QQ for Onefor One--Period DecisionsPeriod Decisions

SOLUTION

Each demand level is a candidate for best order quantity, so the payoff table should have five rows. For the first row,the payoff table should have five rows. For the first row, where Q = 10, demand is at least as great as the purchase quantity. Thus, all five payoffs in this row are

This formula can be used in other rows but only for those quantity–demand combinations where all units are sold during th Th bi ti li i th i ht ti

Payoff = pQ = ($10)(10) = $100

D – 30Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

the season. These combinations lie in the upper-right portion of the payoff table, where Q ≤ D. For example, the payoff when Q = 40 and D = 50 is

Payoff = pQ = ($10)(40) = $400

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Finding Finding QQ for Onefor One--Period DecisionsPeriod Decisions

The payoffs in the lower-left portion of the table represent quantity–demand combinations where some units must be disposed of after the season (Q > D). For this case, the payoff

t b l l t d ith th d f l F lmust be calculated with the second formula. For example, when Q = 40 and D = 30,

Using OM Explorer, we obtain the payoff table in Figure D.5

Payoff = pD – l(Q – D) = ($10)(30) – ($5)(40 – 30) = $250

Now we calculate the expected payoff for each Q by multiplying

D – 31Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Now we calculate the expected payoff for each Q by multiplying the payoff for each demand quantity by the probability of that demand and then adding the results. For example, for Q = 30,

Payoff = 0.2($0) + 0.3($150) + 0.3($300) + 0.1($300) + 0.1($300)= $195

Finding Finding QQ for Onefor One--Period DecisionsPeriod Decisions

D – 32Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Figure D.5 – OM Explorer Solver for One-Period Inventory Decisions Showing the Payoff Table

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Finding Finding QQ for Onefor One--Period DecisionsPeriod Decisions

Using OM Explorer, Figure D.6 shows the expected payoffs

D – 33Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Figure D.6 – OM Explorer Solver Showing the Expected Payoffs

Application D.3Application D.3

For one item, p = $10 and l = $5. The probability distribution for the season’s demand is:

Demand Demand

(D) Probability

10 0.2

20 0.3

30 0.3

40 0.1

50 0.1

D – 34Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Complete the following payoff matrix, as well as the column on the right showing expected payoff. (Students complete highlighted cells) What is the best choice for Q?

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Application D.3Application D.3

D Expected PayoffQ 10 20 30 40 50

10 $100 $100 $100 $100 $100 $100

20 50 200 200 200 200 170

30 0 300 300

40 –50 100 250 400 400 175

50 –100 50 200 350 500 140

D – 35Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Application D.3Application D.3

D Expected PayoffQ 10 20 30 40 50

10 $100 $100 $100 $100 $100 $100

Payoff if Q = 30 and D = 20:

pD – l(Q – D) = 10(20) – 5(30 – 20) = $150

20 50 200 200 200 200 170

30 0 300 300

40 –50 100 250 400 400 175

50 –100 50 200 350 500 140

150 300 195

D – 36Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Payoff if Q = 30 and D = 40:

Expected payoff if Q = 30:

pD = 10(30) = $300

0(0.2) + 150(0.3) + 300(0.3 + 0.1 + 0.1) = $195

Q = 30 has the highest payoff at $195.00

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Solved Problem 1Solved Problem 1

Peachy Keen, Inc., makes mohair sweaters, blouses with Peter Pan collars, pedal pushers, poodle skirts, and other popular clothing styles of the 1950s. The average demand for mohair

t i 100 k P h ’ d ti f ilit h thsweaters is 100 per week. Peachy’s production facility has the capacity to sew 400 sweaters per week. Setup cost is $351. The value of finished goods inventory is $40 per sweater. The annual per-unit inventory holding cost is 20 percent of the item’s value.

a. What is the economic production lot size (ELS)?

b. What is the average time between orders (TBO)?

Wh t i th t t l f th l h ldi t d t t?

D – 37Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

c. What is the total of the annual holding cost and setup cost?

Solved Problem 1Solved Problem 1

SOLUTION

a. The production lot size that minimizes total cost is

dpp

HDS

2ELS

100400

40040200

351521002

$.$

sweaters 78034

300456 ,

b. The average time between orders is

D – 38Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

D

ELSOTB ELS year0.15

2005780

,

Converting to weeks, we get

weeks7.8rweeks/yea52year0.15TBOELS

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Solved Problem 1Solved Problem 1

c. The minimum total of setup and holding costs is

DdpQ

S

QD

Hp

dpQC

2

3517802005

40200400

1004002

780$

,$.

r$4,680/year$2,340/year$2,340/yea

D – 39Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Solved Problem 2Solved Problem 2

A hospital buys disposable surgical packages from Pfisher, Inc. Pfisher’s price schedule is $50.25 per package on orders of 1 to 199 packages and $49.00 per package on orders of 200 or more

k O d i t i $64 d d l h ldipackages. Ordering cost is $64 per order, and annual holding cost is 20 percent of the per unit purchase price. Annual demand is 490 packages. What is the best purchase quantity?

SOLUTION

We first calculate the EOQ at the lowest price:

DS2 00644902 $

D – 40Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

HDS2

EOQ 0049.

packages 804006

004920000644902

,.$.

.$

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Solved Problem 2Solved Problem 2

This solution is infeasible because, according to the price schedule, we cannot purchase 80 packages at a price of $49.00 each. Therefore, we calculate the EOQ at the next lowest price ($50 25)($50.25):

HDS2

EOQ 2550.

packages 792416

255020000644902

,.$.

.$

This EOQ is feasible, but $50.25 per package is not the lowest price. Hence, we have to determine whether total costs can be

D – 41Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

price. Hence, we have to determine whether total costs can be reduced by purchasing 200 units and thereby obtaining a quantity discount.

Solved Problem 2Solved Problem 2

PDSQD

HQ

C 2

4902550006479490

25502002

7979 .$.$.$. C

49000490064200490

00492002

200200 .$.$.$. C

/year$25,416.44$24,622.50ar$396.68/year$396.98/ye

D – 42Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

2002

/year$25,146.80$24,010.00ar$156.80/year$980.00/ye

Purchasing 200 units per order will save $269.64/year, compared to buying 79 units at a time.

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Solved Problem 3Solved Problem 3

Swell Productions is sponsoring an outdoor conclave for owners of collectible and classic Fords. The concession stand in the T-Bird area will sell clothing such as T-shirts and official Th d bi d i j J h d fThunderbird racing jerseys. Jerseys are purchased from Columbia Products for $40 each and are sold during the event for $75 each. If any jerseys are left over, they can be returned to Columbia for a refund of $30 each. Jersey sales depend on the weather, attendance, and other variables. The following table shows the probability of various sales quantities. How many jerseys should Swell Productions order from Columbia for this one-time event?

D – 43Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

Sales Quantity Probability Quantity Sales Probability

100 0.05 400 0.34

200 0.11 500 0.11

300 0.34 600 0.05

Solved Problem 3Solved Problem 3

SOLUTION

Table D.1 is the payoff table that describes this one-period inventory decision. The upper right portion of the table showsinventory decision. The upper right portion of the table shows the payoffs when the demand, D, is greater than or equal to the order quantity, Q. The payoff is equal to the per-unit profit (the difference between price and cost) multiplied by the order quantity. For example, when the order quantity is 100 and the demand is 200,

Payoff = (p – c)Q = ($75 - $40)100 = $3,500

D – 44Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

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Solved Problem 3Solved Problem 3

TABLE D 1 | PAYOFFSTABLE D.1 | PAYOFFS

Demand, D Expected PayoffQ 100 200 300 400 500 600

100 $3,500 $3,500 $3,500 $3,500 $3,500 $3,500 $3,500

200 $2,500 $7,000 $7,000 $7,000 $7,000 $7,000 $6,775

300 $1,500 $6,000 $10,500 $10,500 $10,500 $10,500 $9,555

400 $500 $5,000 $9,500 $14,000 $14,000 $14,000 $10,805

D – 45Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

500 ($500) $4,000 $8,500 $13,000 $17,500 $17,500 $10,525

600 ($1,500) $3,000 $7,000 $12,000 $16,500 $21,000 $9,750

Solved Problem 3Solved Problem 3

The lower-left portion of the payoff table shows the payoffs when the order quantity exceeds the demand. Here the payoff is the profit from sales, pD, minus the loss associated with

t i t k l(Q ) h l i th diff b treturning overstock, l(Q – D), where l is the difference between the cost and the amount refunded for each jersey returned and Q – D is the number of jerseys returned. For example, when the order quantity is 500 and the demand is 200,

Payoff = pD – l(Q – D) = ($75 - $40)200 – ($40 – $30)(500 – 200)

= $4,000

The highest expected payoff occurs when 400 jerseys are

D – 46Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.

The highest expected payoff occurs when 400 jerseys are ordered:

Expected payoff400 = ($500 0.05) + ($5,000 0.11) + ($9,500 0.34) + ($14,000 0.34) + ($14,000 0.11) + ($14,000 0.05)

= $10,805

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D – 47Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.