Ethnic change in the populations of the

developed world. British Society for Population Studies, St Andrews 2007

Tuesday 12 September 4.30

D.A. Coleman , ‘own-child’ calculations by M.D. Smith.

Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford

http://www.spsw.ox.ac.uk/oxpop

Projections of population by origin: a summary of sources.

Projections of foreign-origin populationsend criteria sourceyear

Austria 2050 citizenship only Lebhart and Munz 2003Denmark 2050 'foreign origin' official statisticsGermany 2050 'foreign origin' Ulrich 2001Netherlands 2050 'foreign origin' official statisticsNew Zealand 2021 ethnic origin official statisticsNorway 2060 'foreign origin' official statisticsSweden 2050 'foreign origin' official statisticsSwitzerland 2050 citizenship only official statisticsUSA 2100 race and Hispanic origin official statistics

Australia 2009 aboriginal populations only official statisticsCanada 2017 aboriginal populations only official statisticsNote: 'foreign origin' or 'foreign background' usually taken to include foreign immigrants plus those with one or both parents foreign immigrant Projections of 'foreign origin' usually include 'citizenship' and immigrants.(i.e. two generations). Third generation assumed to be national. Fertility assumed to converge to close to, or same as, national average. Migration usually held constant. Mortality of all groups mostly assumed to follow national projected trend. Individual groups often clustered into 'Western background' and 'non-Western background' or similar classification.

Netherlands 2005 – 2050. Percent of population of foreign origin with and without migration, to show

effect of ‘two-generation’ rule.Netherlands 2005- 2050. Percent of population of foreign orgin ('Western'

and 'non-Western') with and without migration. Source: CBS.

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

percent foreign-origin with zeromigration, 2003-based

percent foreign-origin 2004-based

Norway 2005 – 2050. Projection of population of foreign origin, in two major categories.

Norway 2005-2050. projection of population of foreign origin (percent).

Source: Statistics Norway 2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Western'

Non-Western'

All foreign origin

United States 1999 – 2100, projection by race and Hispanic origin.

US population 1999 - 2100 Middle Series, by ethnic group. Source; US Bureau of the Census 2000.

0

50

100

150

200

250

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

2023

2027

2031

2035

2039

2043

2047

2051

2055

2059

2063

2067

2071

2075

2079

2083

2087

2091

2095

2099

Hispanic

White non-Hispanic

Black non-Hispanic

American Indian NH

Asian and Pacific NH

Comparison of results of European and US ‘foreign-origin’ projections.

Projected growth of population of immigrant or foreign origin 2000-2050,

selected countries, as percent of total population.

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

per

cen

t

Germany medium variant

USA medium variant (excludes black population)

Netherlands base scenario

Denmark 2002- based medium variant

Sweden foreign background 2004 based

Austria 'Compensating' scenario, no naturalisation.

Problems in projecting UK ethnic minority populations

• Base population from (1971), 1991 and 2001 censuses, Labour Force Survey etc.

• Ethnic categories variable.• No vital registration by ethnic origin (birthplace).• Different methods of estimating fertility give

different answers.• No life tables available yet – national rates used.• Migration data weak, not by ethnic origin;

migration most important variable but most unstable and most difficult to project.

• Growing importance of ‘mixed’ populations.

Major sources of data on ethnic minority demographic rates

• Registration of births and deaths (by birthplace of mother/deceased only, from 1969).

• General Household Survey ethnic origin, but small sample (13,250), fertility histories from 1984 and period fertility estimates from ‘own-child’ 1970)

• Labour Force Survey ethnic origin, large sample (qLFS 60,000), no fertility (‘own-child’ method only, from 1965).

• 1991, 2001 Census components of estimates of fertility and immigration.

• ONS Longitudinal Study links births to mothers, and deaths, to census data.

2.3

1.9

0.8

3.7

2.4

1.0

3.5

2.3

1.1

2.9

2.3

0.9

4.8

4.2

1.3

4.8

4.1

1.7

2.9

1.9

0.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1929-1944 1945-1959 1960-1984

White

Caribbean

Black-African

Indian

Pakistani

Bangladeshi

Chinese

Source: General Household Survey, 1988-2000/01

Completed Family Size by year of Birth and Ethnic Origin: GHS women born 1929 – 1984.

N.B. latest cohort incomplete.

The ‘Own-Child’ Method of reconstructing birth-rates in past and current calendar years: Matching and allocation

process.

TFR, 1965-2000: Comparing UK LFS own-child estimates with TFR from ONS registration data (total population).

Total Fertility Rate, 1961-2001: from LFS 'Own-child' Estimates and ONS Birth Registration Data.

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

TF

R

LFS Estimate (UK)

Birth Registrations UK

TFR trends of ethnic minority populations 1980 - 2001

TFR tends ethnic minority populations 1980 - 2001. 7-year moving averages. Source: LFS own-child estimates 1974-2001

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

White

Black-Caribbean

Black-African

Indian

Pakistani

Banglaldeshi

TFR, Indian Women, 1965-2001

Indian TFR moving average (5) 1977 - 2000

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Logistic fit to Indian TFR change

1975-2001 R2=0.84

2002

1999

1996

1993

1990

1987

1984

1981

1978

1975

To

tal

Fer

tili

ty R

ate

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

Indian TFR

Predicted Values

TFR, Black-African Women, 1965-2001

'Black African' TFR trend 1965 - 2001, with fitted logarithmic curve. LFS own-child data

y = 0.2186Ln(x) + 1.5839

R2 = 0.0944

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

Pakistani TFR 1980-2001 and fitted trends to 2026

Linear y = -0.1074x + 4.9331

R2 = 0.8957

Exponential y = 5.087e-0.0294x

R2 = 0.8847

Logarithmic y = -0.8284Ln(x) + 5.5228

R2 = 0.8538

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.019

80

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

TFR trends, US populations by race and Hispanic origin, 1960 - 2001

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

1971

1969

1967

1965

1963

1961

All races Black (race of mother) Black (race of mother)Asian / Pacific Islander Hispanic Non-Hispanic White

Mean Age at Maternity, 1983-2001 – postponement may deflate total fertility estimates in some groups.

TFR comparisons, ethnic groups, various sourcesComparison of TFR estimates for ethnic groups

UK UK England 1 London England 2

1995-2001 average 2000-2001 average 2003 2002 200

TFR n women TFR n women TFR TFR TFR

All 1.73 1.64

White 1.74 882396 1.63 89643 1.73 1.24 1.56

Mixed 1.91 5512 1.84 692 1.72 4.68 Mixed

Black Caribbean 1.67 9526 1.54 1090 1.55 1.83 1.35 Black

Black African 2.45 3735 2.21 869 2.07 2.52

Black Other 1.56 1898 1.83 171 1.52 4.03

Indian 1.62 17139 1.50 1895 1.50 1.54 2.13 Asian

Pakistani 3.06 10844 2.72 1302 2.24 3.10

Bangladeshi 3.55 3421 2.97 403 2.06 3.60

Chinese 1.50 3338 1.53 353 1.39 1.08 0.93 Chinese

Other Asian 1.93 2748 1.58 584 1.97 2.38

Other 1.62 4.52

All non-White 2.22 88388 2.12 16324 Source: England 1:Large and Ghosh, 2004 t 3, London: Klodawski 2004 t.10 p. 14 England 2 Rees in press table 6, UK Coleman and Smith 2005

Mortality• Mortality statistics: for minority groups, ASMRs difficult

to compute in many age-groups: small numbers, under-20s deficient. Overall SMRs in E&W slightly higher than average for Asians, Africans; lower for Caribbean.

• IMR mostly higher.

• For initial projections England and Wales life tables used, projected to 2051 according to GAD 2004 assumptions.

• More complete overseas data may help (Norway, US).

• Large and Ghosh (2006), and Rees (in press) used differential SMRs derived from geographical areas.

Estimated life table for immigrants born in the West Indies, 2001 (qx)

England and Wales, immigrants born in the West Indies, qx 2001

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

Und

er 1

1-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85 p

lus

qx WI males UN 1 parameter

qx WI males actual data

WI female real IMR

qx WI males real IMR

Expectation of life at birth, immigrant groups in England and Wales 2001.

Table 8. Comparison of expectation of life at birth, immigrant groups in England and Wales 2001

Expectation Ratio to age-stand’d E&W Model life-table of life at birth IMR E&W rate / 10000 inverse ratio fit to male age-groups 75+

(lowest median deviation) Place of birth m f m f m f m f m f E&W 1999-01 75.58 80.31 6.2 5.0 100 100 1150 775 100 100 74.79 CD West* Bangladesh 74.85 81.97 4.9 4.1 99 102 1225 725 94 107 73.43 CD East East Africa 75.54 80.89 7.9 6.5 100 101 1150 770 100 101 India 76.01 79.82 6.4 5.2 101 99 1150 825 100 94 Pakistan 75.51 80.34 12.5 10.3 100 100 1160 810 99 96 74.50 UN General** West Africa 74.46 81.47 11.9 9.8 99 101 1275 725 90 107 74.50 CD North West Indies 74.97 80.93 11.0 9.0 99 101 1200 770 96 101 74.41 CD North China 77.66 81.81 5.6 4.6 103 102 1000 660 115 117 77.48 CD North *(North gave 75.97), ** (closest average e0 CD North 75.67), Age-standardised rates Griffiths and Brock (2004), ONS Mortality by country of birth in England and Wales 2001-2003, Model Life Tables from Mortpak COMPAR

Estimating net ethnic migration

• IPS TIM Migration data by residence / birthplace turned into ethnic flows with LFS or Census data (Rees in press, on ethnic origin of recent migrants, and Large and Ghosh 2006).

• Projecting future overall level difficult: GAD assume constant net level to 2074 but at lower level (145k) than actual current ONS figure (185k net in 2005).

• Recent trends and policy suggest further increase in most components except asylum; initial projections here assume recent average level, or zero, only.

• Longer term: Eastern European flow may fall with population decline and economic growth; Indian prosperity may promote some return migration; chronic problems in Africa may increase pressure despite asylum restrictions.

Actual net migration trends, GAD projections (1000s) and curve fitted to 1992-2005 data. Sources: ONS and GAD

GAD Net immigration assumptions, and ONS data, 1996 - 2005 (1000s)

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

2046

2049

GAD PP 1996

GAD PP 1998

GAD PP 2000

Actual (pre-2001 census)

Actual (post-2001 census)

GAD 2002-based

Fitted logarithmic curve to actual post-census data (r2=0.83)

GAD PP 2004

UK population projections 2004-71, 2004-based, GAD Principal Projection and variant migration assumptions.

UK population projections 2004 - 2071. 2004-based, variant migration assumptions (millions).

Source : Government Actuary's Department 2005.

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061 2066 2071

2004-based PP 255 - 145k

2004-based high migration 285 - 205k

2004-based low migration 225k - 85k

2004-based natural change

Another (semi) official view (Home Office RDS Occasional Paper no 67, 2001).

Spouse migration to the UK 1973 - 2005 (thousands)

Spouse migration by sex and NC origin, UK 1973-2005Source: Home Office acceptances for settlement.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

All husbands All wives

NC wives NC husbands

Labour migration by work permit, UK 1973- 2005

Work permits holders and dependants admitted, UK 1973-2005. Source: Home Office

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

≥12 months <12 months

dependants total

Growth of male South Asian ethnic minority populations of marriageable age, and entry-clearance

applications for wives/fiancees 1981-2001.Trends in age-group size and spouse entry applications from Indian sub-

Continent, Great Britain 1981-2001. Source: LFS, Census, Home Office.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

Wives/fiancees entry clearance applications, ISC South Asian Males 15-24 / 10

Birthplace of foreign-born immigrants in the UK describing themselves as Indian

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1940

-194

4

1945

-194

9

1950

-195

4

1955

-195

9

1960

-196

4

1965

-196

9

1970

-197

4

1975

-197

9

1980

-198

4

1985

-198

9

1990

-199

4

1995

-200

1

Period of arrival

N

Guyana

Other NewCommonwealth

Other Africa

Mauritius

Sri Lanka

Malawi, Nyasaland(Malawi)

Zanzibar (Tanzania)

Uganda

Kenya

India

Source: all foreign born persons present in the UK Labour Force Survey, 1991-2001 (Autumn Quarters)Note: survivorship issue! (immigrants had to survive until the period 1990-2001, and had to remain)

Some UK projections• Choices: to constrain or not to constrain? separate

components or interactive? Migration numbers or rates?

• Various approaches for England by Large and Ghosh (2006); Rees (2006 and in press) and Bains (2006) for London.

• Diversity in fertility rates and trend• Diversity in migration levels• Mortality assumed to be England and Wales average• ‘Mixed’ populations and their generation only

considered experimentally.

Ethnic projections: summary of assumptionsPop. Total Fertility Net migration

(1000s) this study ONS GL DMAG 2001-2UK England London UK England

2001 2001 2001 2002-3 this study ONSWhite British, 52730 1.60 1.63 1.24 -50 -46.7Scottish, IrishWhite non-British 1423 1.49 1.49 - 50 46.7Mixed 677 1.80 1.62 - 10.0 9.5Asian Bangladeshi 283 3.08 2.06 3.60 4.0 3.4Asian Indian 1053 1.60 1.41 1.54 21.0 19.6Asian Pakistani 840 3.00 2.24 3.10 9.3 5.4Asian Other 248 1.75 1.97 2.38 19.0 14.9Black African 485 2.43 1.94 2.53 30.0 33.2Black Caribbean 566 1.70 1.46 1.83 2.5 1.2Black Other 98 1.43 1.52 4.03 0.5 0.4Chinese 247 1.42 1.39 0.08 30.0 30.0Other 231 1.74 1.62 4.52 30.0 30.6

Total non-white 4728 - 156.3 148.2All groups 58882 1.63 1.63 - 156.3 148.2

Projection of UK populations 2001-2051, combined

into three major groups. Assumptions: near-convergent fertility, constant migration, mortality as in GAD 2004-based PP.

Percent of UK population in three major ethnic categories, 2001 - 2051, assuming net annual inflow of 50,000 white non-British population

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

British, Scottish, Irish

non-white ethnic minority

white non-British

Projection of UK ethnic minority populations 2001-51, grouped into ‘non-white’ and ‘white non-British’, to show the

importance of migration.Projection of UK ethnic minority populations 2001-2051 (1000s).

Assumptions: net migration as estimated for 2001, non-white fertility declining from 2001, mortality declining acording to 2004-based GAD PP.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

UK non-white ethnic minority population with current migration

UK non-white ethnic minority population without migration

white non-British or Irish

white non-British without migration

Projection of UK Black populations and ‘Mixed’ (without intergenerational transfers) 2001-2051

(1000s).

Population projections, UK 2001-2051, Black groups and Mixed (1000s). Assumes falling fertility, net migration as 2001 and falling death rates according to GAD 2004-based PP. Not

constrained to national population total. Does not include mixed unions.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Black African

Black Caribbean

Black Other

Mixed

Projection of UK Asian populations and ‘Other’, 2001-2051 (1000s).

Projection of UK population 2001-2051, Asian groups and Other (1000s)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

Asian Bangaldeshi

Asian Indian

Asian Pakistani

Asian Other

Chinese

Other

Projected rank order of ethnic groups 2001-20512001 2026 2051

1 Indian Indian African2 Pakistani African Indian3 Mixed Pakistani Other4 Caribbean Other Chinese5 African Chinese Pakistani6 Bangladeshi Mixed Mixed7 Other Asian Other Asian Other Asian8 Chinese Caribbean Caribbean9 Other Bangladeshi Bangladeshi

10 Other Black Other Black Other BlackNote: convergent fertility, migration constant at 2001 levels, mortality declining on GAD assumptions, no mixed unions considered.

Contribution of Mixed Births to Total Births by Ethnic Group of mother, UK,

1992-200140.7

35.3

16.6

12.8

8.9

4.11.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45C

hine

se

Car

ibbe

an

Bla

ck-

Afr

ican

Indi

an

Pak

ista

ni

Ban

glad

eshi

Whi

te

% M

ixe

d B

irth

s

Source: Quarterly Labour Force Surveys, 1992-2001 (Autumn Quarters)

Ethnic origin of children born 1990-2000 compared with ethnic origin of mothers, England 2001.

(from 2001 Census: source ONS table CO 431)

Distribution of ethnic origin of children born to mothers of given ethnic origin (percent) i.e.column percentages. 'Mixed' categories amalgamated.All children born 1990-2001 in census

Ethnic origin of motherBritish Irish Oth. White All mixed Indian Pakistani BangladeshiOth. Asian Caribbean African Oth. Black Chinese Other all

British 97.16 64.43 44.51 28.26 1.77 1.88 2.81 5.97 2.53 2.26 6.21 5.36 12.60 84.78 BritishIrish 0.09 25.66 0.31 0.21 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.36 IrishOther White 0.42 3.64 46.48 3.48 0.23 0.11 0.15 1.24 0.43 0.55 1.49 0.59 2.60 1.91 Other WhiteAll mixed 2.06 5.43 6.45 55.51 6.12 1.86 1.44 11.01 16.54 5.45 16.71 18.61 28.68 3.50 All mixedIndian 0.04 0.10 0.18 0.77 87.81 1.05 0.67 4.94 0.22 0.29 0.29 0.26 0.52 2.17 IndianPakistani 0.06 0.11 0.19 1.16 1.46 92.75 1.14 5.29 0.17 0.25 0.30 0.26 0.49 2.15 PakistaniBangladeshi 0.02 0.05 0.14 0.34 0.44 0.39 91.99 1.48 0.07 0.13 0.10 0.11 0.23 0.89 BangladeshiOther Asian 0.02 0.06 0.28 1.19 1.72 1.62 1.32 67.66 0.36 0.54 0.40 0.17 1.87 0.55 Other AsianBlack Caribbean 0.03 0.09 0.16 3.96 0.09 0.04 0.05 0.32 70.36 1.50 7.48 0.13 0.18 1.11 Black CaribbeanBlack African 0.03 0.15 0.53 2.18 0.13 0.09 0.13 0.43 2.37 83.99 5.89 0.14 0.54 1.48 Black AfricanOther Black 0.02 0.08 0.22 1.93 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.28 6.80 4.87 60.54 0.06 0.34 0.37 Other BlackChinese 0.03 0.06 0.09 0.25 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.09 0.04 0.03 0.11 73.32 1.13 0.35 ChineseOther Ethnic Group0.03 0.14 0.45 0.74 0.11 0.12 0.17 1.20 0.08 0.11 0.39 0.91 50.72 0.40 Other Ethnic Groupall 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 columnsSource - ONS commissioned table CO 431 6219445 rows

Projection of Mixed populations, and Caribbean, with and without inter-generational contributions,

UK 2001 – 2056 (thousands).Growth of mixed populations with fertility contributions from selected other groups, UK 2001 - 2051 (thousands). Fertility contributions from British, African,

Caribbean, Chinese, Other Black, Other.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056

Mixed

Mixed plus British, African, WestIndian, Chinese, Other, Other Black

Black Caribbean

Black Caribbean minus mixed

Probabilistic projection 2001-2100: Mixed populations as a proportion of the

total UK population Uk,Mixed,Both Sexes

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

20

35

20

40

20

45

20

50

20

55

20

60

20

65

20

70

20

75

20

80

20

85

20

90

20

95

21

00

Year

Pro

po

rtio

n

Fra cti les

S er gei 's Offi ce PI II, fil e: D:\I IASA2005\M inorities \resul ts\[ chart s_OK_2100_ok_new2_2_del.x ls] ,01-Mar -05 13:22

Probabilistic projections of the UK – average results

UK Version 2 probabilistic projection: mean of percent of each major ethnic group in the total population, 2001 - 2100. Source: Coleman and Scherbov

2005.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

2085

2090

2095

2100

White

Black

Asian

Mixed

Probabilistic projection of the UK – population distribution

by sex, age and major group in 2050. (green = White, beige = Asian, black = Black, red = Mixed) Source: Coleman and Scherbov

2005.

0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0

2050204520402035203020252020201520102005200019951990198519801975197019651960195519501945

females

0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0

05

101520253035404550556065707580859095

100105

UK,Population by age, sex and major ethnic group - 2050

Population (thousands)

males

Age Period of Birth

Migration scenarios – escaping from linear projection

Non-British white – reduction expected as economies of East European source countries grow. BUT major new inflow likely if Turkey joins EU with labour migration rights. South Asia – likely return migration of better-skilled to India, but spouse migration likely to continue or increase with growth of ethnic population in UK. Africa – continued asylum pressure likely with population growth, chronic political and economic problems and global warming.; also from other parts of third world. China – Student inflow likely to continue but economic growth and labour shortage may reverse other flows. Political stability not certain. In general asylum flows have fallen regardless of policy in receiving countries. Illegal immigration and overstaying may already be very high, likely to increase in absence of substantial reform of control and statistics. Amnesty would make very large transient impact. Very long term trend probably towards reduction of most forms of migration. UK Immigration policy likely to become slightly more restrictive with present government, maybe more so if government changes.

Conclusions• Projections of population by ethnic origin in UK

are possible but with difficulty.• Most sensitive and unpredictable variable is

migration, not fertility or mortality.• Substantial growth, and re-alignment of relative

size, of some groups is almost inevitable.• ‘Mixed’ groups gaining in importance – multiple

origins may eventually make ethnic categories less meaningful.

• Next steps to include migration scenarios.