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DAC PROJECTCapacity Building in Balcan Countriesfor the Abatement of Greenhouse Gases
Setting priorities for GHG emissions’ reduction
George MavrotasNATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS
Tirana – 08.04.2002
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Structure of the presentation
Analysis of the current situation – Recognize priorities
Indicative measures and policies
Evaluation of the measures
Priorities according to local experts
Concluding remarks
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Contribution of Greenhouse Gases in the EU
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
90 91 92 93 94 95 96
Year
MtCO2 equiv.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000 GDP
N2O CH4 CO2 GDP EU Kyoto target
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Focus: Energy sector
1994
Services7%
Agricultural7%
Industry32%
Transport 28%
Energy transformation
20%
Residential6%
2900 kt CO2
CO2 emissions from the energy sector
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Power generation characteristics
Installed capacity1446 MW hydro power 35 MW thermal power
Production 99% from hydro power (normal year: 4300 GWh)
Recognized problemsHigh T&D losses (~25%)Strong dependence on hydrological conditions
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Measures and Policies for Electricity Generation
The future Further exploitation of hydro potential (now only 35%) It is unavoidable to cover the increased electricity
demand by thermal power plants (TPP) in order to enhance the security of supply (diversification of power supply mix)
Forecasted capacity of TPP till 2020 ~850 MWShare of TPP production ~40% in 2020
High PriorityReduce T&D lossesClean and efficient technologies for TPP units
Natural gas > Oil > Coal
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Measures and Policies for the Demand Sectors
The aim should be 3-fold:To increase energy efficiency through
minimisation of energy losses
To upgrade existing infrastructure with new appliances/equipment
To introduce cleaner fuels and renewables
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Measures and Policies for the Residential & Tertiary Sector
Reduction of thermal losses in existing buildings (insulation + double glazing)
Updating building specifications for new buildings
Buildings shading Use of low energy lamps Use of efficient domestic appliances Solar water heating systems Penetration of natural gas District heating CHP in large buildings (hotels, hospitals, etc)
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Measures and Policies for the Industrial Sector
Improved maintenance of energy equipment
Energy conservation (reduction of losses)
Substitution of solids and oil with natural gas
Cogeneration with natural gas
Exploitation of biomass (agricultural residues)
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Measures and Policies for the Transport Sector
Improved maintenance of private cars, trucks
and buses
Improvement of road network
Improvement in traffic lighting
Promotion of public transport
Increased natural gas in public transport
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Evaluation of measures
Cost estimationCost per ton of CO2 saved (specific cost)
Contribution to CO2 emissions’ abatement
Marginal abatement cost curve Additional criteria
Ease of implementation (missing infrastructures, administrative-legislative barriers)
Environmental synergiesImpact on employment and regional
development
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Cost per ton of CO2 saved
Comparison with the relative baseline scenario option Specify the reference unit (e.g. 1 household) and the
reference time period (e.g. 1 year)
Cost and CO2 emissions estimation for the baseline scenario option (without the measure)
Cost and CO2 emissions estimation with the measure implementation
measurebaseline
baselinemeasure
COCO
CostCostCostSpecific
22
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
CO2 abatement estimation
Specify the target year
Assume a penetration rate of the measure at target year
Estimate the CO2 abatement at target year: CO2ab=(CO2b-CO2m)ref_unit unitstarg_year penetration_rate
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Evaluation of the measures: The case of Albania
Quantification of 26 measures in the energy sector
Residential sector: 9Services: 3 Industry: 5Transport: 1Agricultural: 1Energy Transformation: 7
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Ranking according to the specific cost of measures
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
res
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itch
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tran
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ies
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tran
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ro-H
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tran
sf-
NG
-HFO
tran
sf-
PV
-die
se
l
agr-
pv$/
t C
O2
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Ranking according to the CO2 abatement in 2020
2020
1,524
1,017928
670
483363 332 317
186 148 131 111 100 90 84 82 79 59 53 34 29 10 10 7 1 00
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
ind
-bo
il-H
FO
tra
nsf
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ro-H
FO
ind
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oa
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O
ind
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tors
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y
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ht
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tors
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ig
res-
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DH
ag
r-p
v
kt C
O2/
yea
r
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Marginal abatement cost curve for 2020
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
kt CO2
$/t
CO
2
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Comments
Almost all the studied measures are beneficial even from a financial point of view
Mostly energy conservation measures and some fuel-switch
In 2020 the potential of CO2 emissions abatement is about 7 Mt. It can be attained with measures that are also economical acceptable.
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Example: Economy lamps
Baseline scenario: Incandescent lamps Base of calculations: 1 typical household (100 m2) Reference time period: 1 year
Incandescent lamps
Economy lamps
Lighting power 350 W 63 W
Annual consumption (2.5h/day)
315 kWh 57 kWh
Price of 1 lamp (100W18W)
1.1 € 18.9 €
Lifetime ~ 1 year ~ 8 years
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Example: Economy lamps (2)
Annualized cost per lamp: Incandescent: 1.1 €Economy lamp: CRF(5%, 8 years)18.9 =0.155 18.9 = 2.93 €
Annualized cost per household: Incandescent: 5 lamps/household 1.1 €/lamp = 5.5 €Economy lamps: 5 lamps/household 2.93 €/lamp = 14.7 €
Annual electricity cost (~ 0.098 €/kWh): Incandescent: 0.098 €/kWh 315 kWh = 30.9 €Economy lamps: 0.098 €/kWh 57 kWh = 5.6 €
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Example: Economy lamps (3)
Total annual cost per household: Incandescent: 5.5 € + 30.9 € = 36.4 €Economy lamps: 14.7 € + 5.6 € = 20.3 €
Power generation data Transmission losses: 15%Average emission factor (2020): 0.263 kg CO2/kWh
Power generation CO2 emissions per household Incandescent: 0.263 315/(1- 0.15) = 97 kg CO2
Economy lamps: 0.263 57/(1- 0.15) = 18 kg CO2
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Example: Economy lamps (4)
Abatement cost: (20.3€ – 36.4€) / (97 kgCO2 – 18 kgCO2) = -204 €/ tCO2
Number of households in 2020: ~ 1,440,000 Penetration of the measure until 2020: ~ 50% CO2 abatement in 2020:
1,440,000 (97 kgCO2 – 18 kgCO2) 0.5 = 56.9 kt CO2
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Priorities according to local experts (Oct. 2001)
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
low medium high
New hydro plants and other renewables (wind)
Natural gas
Modification in unit commitment
Reducing losses in transmission
INDUSTRY
low medium high
Substitution of coal and oil with NG
Cogeneration of Heat and Power (CHP)
Energy conservation
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Questionnaire results (2)
RESIDENTIAL & TERTIARY SECTOR
low medium high
Thermal insulation improvements
Penetration of NG (assume LPG)
District Heating
DSM measures
Economy lamps
Solar collectors for hot water
CHP in tertiary (hospitals, hotels etc)
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Questionnaire results (3)
TRANSPORT
low medium high
Road network improvements
Promotion of Public transport means
Intervention in the fuels (NG, LPG, bio-diesel)
Traffic lights tuning
NG in public transport buses
AGRICULTURAL
low medium high
Geothermal energy in greenhouses
Energy crops (for biofuels)
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Questionnaire results (4)
LAND USE CHANGE & FORESTRY
low medium high
Effective forest-fire control
Rational use of forests - Reafforestation
WASTE MANAGEMENT
low medium high
Recycling (paper, glass, aluminium)
Bio-gas from landfills
DAC Project / Tirana, 08.04.2002
Concluding remarks
Priorities: Further exploitation of natural gasSecure electricity supply with TPP using “clean” fuelsEnergy conservationExploitation of renewable energy sources
Criteria for the evaluation of measuresCost per ton of CO2 saved
CO2 abatement for target year
Applicability, synergies, employment
Current phase in Task 3 of DAC project: quantification of the measures