Daily Commodity Report as on Friday, April 07, 2017

Date : Friday, April 07, 2017 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 1

Open High Low Close % Cng OI

Gold 28935 28950 28701 28721 -0.29 6754Silver 42331 42389 41952 42093 -0.39 12179

Alum. 127.05 127.5 125.65 125.75 -1.37 2902Copper 384.05 385.4 378.8 380.65 -1.42 13491Lead 150.55 151 147.7 148.55 -1.20 1822Nickel 669.5 672.3 650.9 654.1 -2.75 28831Zinc 180.9 181.15 174.95 175.65 -2.52 4704

Crude 3327 3359 3308 3351 0.57 13513Nat. Gas 212.8 215.7 209.4 214.7 0.75 9804

Cardamom 1311 1321 1302.2 1304.8 -0.72 559Turmeric 6400 6450 6314 6314 -1.99 13775

Jeera 18760 19490 18635 19365 2.62 15864Dhaniya 7926 7943 7921 7926 0.16 47430

Wheat 1682 1682 1671 1675 -0.59 7480

Soyabean 2964 2976 2942 2945 -0.74 105300Ref. Oil 629.3 630.9 625.7 626.3 -0.44 60260CPO 524 525.9 522.6 523.5 -0.06 7017RMSeed 3987 3990 3940 3946 -0.88 58230Menthol 999 1004.5 994.1 995.8 -0.42 2319Cotton 21020 21100 20880 20900 -0.67 7382

USDINR 65.25 65.25 64.69 64.73 -0.55 1568920EURINR 69.56 69.71 69.09 69.14 -0.58 62860GBPINR 81.50 81.57 80.64 80.73 -0.70 44373JPYINR 59.00 59.09 58.36 58.41 -0.64 16906

1

Turmeric prices dropped on increasing arrivals from the producing regions.Currency

Jeera prices ended with gains due to rising domestic as well as export demand in the spot market.

Date : Friday, April 07, 2017 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 2

Natural gas extending gains after data showed that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose less than expected last week.

Ref soyoil prces ended with losses on profit booking after prices gained earlier on hopes of higher demand. Cereals

Mentha oil prices dropped amid subdued physical demand for mentha oil in the domestic spot market. Oil and Oilseeds & Others

Soyabean prices ended with losses on profit booking after prices seen supported on lower arrivals in the local mandis.

Energy Copper dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported getting a boost from news of a strike at the Peruvian operations of Southern Copper.

Zinc prices dropped on profit booking ahead of a meeting between the leaders of China and the United States.

Nickel dropped on fresh selling as traders cut there long position before outcome from the meeting between US and China.Spices

Market Round upPrecious Metals

Gold edged lower pressured by a firmer dollar on the back of upbeat U.S. unemployment data and as some investors sold to redeem profits.

Base MetalSilver prices dropped as new applications for U.S. unemployment benefits last week recorded their biggest drop in nearly two years.

Crude oil gained posting a fourth straight day of gains, but prices remained cautious about record-high U.S. crude inventories.

Investors digested minutes from Fed’s policy meeting released which showed that the central bank would start to unwind its $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year.

Gold edged lower pressured by a firmer dollar on the back of upbeat U.S. unemployment data and as some investors sold to redeem profits.

Date : Friday, April 07, 2017 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 3

CLOSE 42093 RES-1 42338

% CNG -0.39 RES-2 42582

Silver on MCX settled down -0.39% at 42093 as new applications for U.S. unemployment benefits last week recorded their biggest drop in nearly two years. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial joblessclaims decreased by 25,000 to 234,000 in the week ending April 1 from the previous week’s revised total of 259,000. Meanwhile, expectations of June rate hike grew, after the Federal Reserve released the minutes from itsMarch meeting on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve said that it would start to unwind its $4.5 trillion balance sheet “later this year” and maintained its view, rate hikes would be gradual. At the March 14-15 meeting, FOMCmembers voted at the meeting to raise interest rates a quarter-point while projecting two further rate hikes this year. There was detailed discussion of ending the reinvestment policy, with policy makers unsure whether tophase out reinvestment of principal payments or cutting them off at once by year's end. It would make sense if the U.S. economy continues to grow for the Federal Reserve to begin trimming its $4.5 trillion balance sheettowards the end of this year, unwinding extraordinary stimulus deployed during the crisis, John Williams, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank said. The Fed's decision to reduce its massive asset holdings willset off a complex dance with global investors and the U.S. Treasury as it tries to put a final end to policies used to fight the 2007 financial crisis without upending the economy along the way. Technically market is under freshselling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.05% to settled at 12179, now Silver is getting support at 41901 and below same could see a test of 41708 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 42338, amove above could see prices testing 42582.

BUY SILVER MAY 2017 @ 42300 SL 42100 TGT 42540-42750.MCX

Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.29% i.e. 29.45 tonnes to 10208.21 tonnes from 10237.66 tonnes.

HIGH 42389 SUP-1 41901

LOW 41952 P.P. 42145

Gold on MCX settled down -0.29% at 28721 pressured by a firmer dollar on the back of upbeat U.S. unemployment data and as some investors sold to redeem profits. Gold was pressured as new applications for U.S.unemployment benefits last week recorded their biggest drop in nearly two years. The dollar index extended gains after data showed new applications for U.S. unemployment benefits last week recorded their biggest drop innearly two years. Those claims, however, will have no bearing on March U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which could be key for short-term direction of the gold market. Investors were also cautious ahead of themeeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping due later on Thursday, the first between the world's two most powerful leaders. It would make sense if the U.S. economy continues to grow forthe Federal Reserve to begin trimming its $4.5 trillion balance sheet towards the end of this year, unwinding extraordinary stimulus deployed during the crisis, John Williams, president of the San Francisco Federal ReserveBank said. The Fed's decision to reduce its massive asset holdings will set off a complex dance with global investors and the U.S. Treasury as it tries to put a final end to policies used to fight the 2007 financial crisis withoutupending the economy along the way. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.79% to settled at 6754 while prices down -84 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 28632and below same could see a test of 28542 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28881, a move above could see prices testing 29040.

MCX Silver May 2017 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 42331 SUP-2 41708 Silver trading range for the day is 41708-42582.

With the monthly jobs report looming, data showed a much bigger than expected drop in first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits.

Silver prices dropped as new applications for U.S. unemployment benefits last week recorded their biggest drop in nearly two years.

CLOSE 28721 RES-1 28881 Investors were also cautious ahead of the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping due later on Thursday.

% CNG -0.29 RES-2 29040 BUY GOLD JUN 2017 @ 28900 SL 28750 TGT 29050-29180.MCX

HIGH 28950 SUP-1 28632

LOW 28701 P.P. 28791

MCX Gold Jun 2017 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 28935 SUP-2 28542 Gold trading range for the day is 28542-29040.

Copper on MCX settled down -1.42% at 380.65 as pressure on base metals complex amid the anticipation for a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping. Sentiments this week was subdueafter data showed activity at China's factories expanded for a ninth straight month in March but at a softer pace as new export orders slowed. That has raised questions about whether a recent pickup in global demand islosing steam. Meanwhile support can be seen after the update from Rio Tinto's copper and diamonds chief said the copper market is likely to see a small shortage as early as this year because of a lack of new supply and theremoval of up to 800,000 tonnes over the past 18 months in response to modest prices. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed down 0.6 per cent at $US5,858 a tonne. While today copper prices look firmas support seen after dollar dropped after the United States launched cruise missiles against an air base in Syria. In Asia, investors were paring risk before a potentially tense meeting between U.S. President Donald Trumpand Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later on Thursday where China's trade surplus will be high on the agenda. A flurry of data in coming weeks is expected to show China posted solid economic growth in March. Thatmomentum should carry over into higher metals demand during the second quarter,when consumption typically peaks in China. Now technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by8.68% to settled at 13491, now Copper is getting support at 377.8 and below same could see a test of 375 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 384.4, a move above could see prices testing 388.2.

BUY COPPER APR 2017 @ 382.00 SL 379.80 TGT 384.80-388.00.MCX

Rio Tinto's chief said copper market is likely to see a small shortage because of a lack of new supply.

Pan Pacific Copper, plans to produce 235,200 tonnes of refined copper between April and September, down 19.9 percent from a year-ago period.

Copper dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported getting a boost from news of a strike at the Peruvian operations of Southern Copper.

Date : Friday, April 07, 2017 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 4

CLOSE 380.7 RES-1 384.4

% CNG -1.42 RES-2 388.2

HIGH 385.4 SUP-1 377.8

LOW 378.8 P.P. 381.6

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 0.57% at 3351 continued to rise as a strong US jobs market signaled imminent demand for energy products. While today prices crude oil prices will see gap up opening as support seen after theUnited States launched dozens of cruise missiles at an airbase in Syria. Crude settled higher for a third straight day, despite renewed concerns that a ramp up in U.S. crude production could dampened OPEC’s efforts toreduce supply, after U.S. crude inventories swelled to a record high on Wednesday. A report from the EIA on Wednesday, showed an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories, which confounded expectations of a drop ininventories, as the U.S. approaches the ‘summer driving season’. Investors, remained hopeful that OPEC would extend its current deal to cut production beyond June in an effort to curb the current glut in supply. InNovember last year, OPEC and other producers, including Russia agreed to cut output by about 1.8mbpd. Non-OPEC oil producers that joined the global deal to reduce output delivered only 64% of promised cuts in February,an industry source said March 20, which was far below the roughly 90% compliance with the deal from OPEC members. Now Crude oil trader eyeing on today's Non-farm Payrolls data. Expectations are set at 180k, and anydeviation from this value may send commodities markets reeling. Last month’s NFP release saw employment figures beating expectations, which directly sent crude oil prices to form new weekly and monthly lows. Alsoparticipants turn attention to Baker Hughes rig count, due to be released on Friday. Technically market is getting support at 3319 and below same could see a test of 3288 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at3370, a move above could see prices testing 3390.

MCX Copper Apr 2017 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 384.1 SUP-2 375.0 Copper trading range for the day is 375-388.2.

CLOSE 3351 RES-1 3370 The record crude inventories came as U.S. oil production rose 52,000 bpd to 9.2 mbpd, a more than 9 percent increase since mid-2016

% CNG 0.57 RES-2 3390 BUY CRUDEOIL APR 2017 @ 3370 SL 3340 TGT 3410-3460.MCX

EIA reported an increase of 1.57 million barrels in crude inventories, bringing total U.S. stocks to a record of 535.5 million barrels.

HIGH 3359 SUP-1 3319

LOW 3308 P.P. 3339

Crude oil gained posting a fourth straight day of gains, but prices remained cautious about record-high U.S. crude inventories.

MCX Crudeoil Apr 2017 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 3327 SUP-2 3288 Crudeoil trading range for the day is 3288-3390.

Base metals complex dropped as pressure seen after data showed activity at China's factories expanded with softer pace

Nickel dropped on fresh selling as traders cut there long position before outcome from the meeting between US and China.

Australian miner South32 Ltd cut's LEAD and ZINC's output forecasts on Thursday after a fire at its Cannington silver and lead mine.

Zinc prices dropped on profit booking ahead of a meeting between the leaders of China and the United States.

HIGH 672.3 SUP-1 645.9

LOW 650.9 P.P. 659.1

Zinc on MCX settled down -2.52% at 175.65 as trader cut there long position as sentiments were in cautious mode before a potentially tense meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart XiJinping. While support will be seen as Australian miner South32 Ltd on Thursday said its Cannington silver and lead mine in the country's northeast had been hit by a fire, forcing it to cut output forecasts. Refined zinc supplyremains resilient, especially in China where refined production rose by 4.4% year-on-year in the first two months of 2017. But Chinese smelters may prove less resilient in the coming months after they announced that540,000 tpy of capacity would be put on maintenance for unspecified period. The LME spec positioning in zinc looks fairly elevated considering that the net spec length – at 78,473 lots as of March 24 – is at 79% of the all-time record (99,251 lots) from 2015. Sentiments this week was subdue after data showed activity at China's factories expanded for a ninth straight month in March but at a softer pace as new export orders slowed. That hasraised questions about whether a recent pickup in global demand is losing steam. A flurry of data in coming weeks is expected to show China posted solid economic growth in March. That momentum should carry over intohigher metals demand during the second quarter, when consumption typically peaks in China. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.63% to settled at 4704 whileprices down -4.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 173.5 and below same could see a test of 171.1 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 179.7, a move above could see prices testing 183.5.

MCX Nickel Apr 2017 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 669.5

Nickel on MCX settled down -2.75% at 654.10 tracking weakness from LME Nickel which ended 2.1 per cent lower at $US10,080 a tonne as Nickel traders cut there long position and sit with a wait-and-see mode to see whatthe outcome will be from the meeting between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jingpin. China has been the target of anti-dumping lawsuits, and this is expected to be a hot topic in the meeting of the twoworld leaders. The timing for the nickel market is interesting; according to a Reuters report the EU has set anti-dumping duties on imports of hot-rolled flat steel products from China at a higher rate than those already inplace; final duties have been set at between 18.1% 35.9% for five years for metal coming from a number of Chinese producers. With nickel an important component of steel products, regulations on the steel industry will, inturn, affect nickel prices. The US has already enforced a number of tariffs on Chinese steel imports, a development that China is not happy about. This will likely be a major topic of discussion between Xi and Trump. Overall,nickel prices have seen a great deal of support in 2016 and into 201 from the Philippines’ mining crackdown. With a number of mines shut down in the country due to alleged violations of environmental regulations. However,these closures could be reversed if the country’s lawmakers do not confirm Regina Lopez as Environment Minister. Lopez, with President Rodrigo Duterte’s support, has pushed the mining inspections and closures. Technicallynow Nickel is getting support at 645.9 and below same could see a test of 637.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 667.3, a move above could see prices testing 680.5.

BUY NICKEL APR 2017 @ 658.00 SL 645.00 TGT 670.00-684.00.MCX

The EU has set anti-dumping duties on imports of hot-rolled flat steel products from China at a higher rate than those already in place.

Date : Friday, April 07, 2017 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 5

CLOSE 654.1 RES-1 667.3

% CNG -2.75 RES-2 680.5

SUP-2 637.7 Nickel trading range for the day is 637.7-680.5.

CLOSE 175.7 RES-1 179.7 South Korea is seeking 1,000 tonnes of zinc for June arrival.

% CNG -2.52 RES-2 183.5 BUY ZINC APR 2017 @ 176.50 SL 175.00 TGT 177.80-179.00.MCX

HIGH 181.2 SUP-1 173.5

LOW 175.0 P.P. 177.3

MCX Zinc Apr 2017 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 180.9 SUP-2 171.1 Zinc trading range for the day is 171.1-183.5.

At Erode market total arrivals are at 5000 quintals, lower by 3000 quintals from previous day’s arrivals.  

Turmeric prices dropped on increasing arrivals from the producing regions.

Production estimates for 2016-17 are lower due to a decline in the jeera acreage in Gujarat.

Jeera prices ended with gains due to rising domestic as well as export demand in the spot market.

HIGH 6450 SUP-1 6270

LOW 6314 P.P. 6360

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 2.62% at 19365 due to rising domestic as well as export demand in the spot market. Besides, reports of lower production estimates in Gujarat also added support to Jeera uptrend. A recentassessment by the Federation of Indian Spices Stakeholders in Udaipur, Rajasthan, has forecast India’s cumin seed production at 5.83 million bags of 40 kg each (233,280 tonnes) this year against 4.20 million bags of 40 kgeach (168,320 tonnes) last year. The latest spell of rainfall last week is estimated to have spoiled 30 per cent of the standing crop. Production estimates for 2016-17 are lower due to a decline in the jeera acreage in Gujarat.The Centre pegs production of jeera in the state at 221,000 tonnes, down 11 per cent from last year’s output of 238,000 tonnes. The output is far lower than the normal of 346,000 tonnes in Gujarat in 2013-14. Acreage hasfallen to 279,000 hectares this year from 286,000 hectares earlier. According to data, 33,110 tonnes of jeera arrived in the markets between March 1 and March 20, against 34,107 tonnes during the same period last year.India exports an average of 15,000 tonnes of jeera during March, April and May. Lower carryover stock coupled with higher export demand may push up jeera prices, as traders fear tight supply conditions in the comingmonths. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 313.35 Rupees to end at 18603.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting support at 18840 and below same could see a test of 18310 level,And resistance is now likely to be seen at 19695, a move above could see prices testing 20020.

NCDEX Turmeric May 2017 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 6400 SUP-2 6224 Turmeric trading range for the day is 6224-6496.

CLOSE

Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -1.99% at 6314 on increasing arrivals from the producing regions. Though, some losses were capped on rising demand from retailers and stockiest at the spot market. At Erode markettotal arrivals are at 5000 quintals, lower by 3000 quintals from previous day’s arrivals. In coming days, arrivals are expected to increase which could put pressure over prices. Prices may decline due to pressure of arrivals butimproved domestic and export demand for the new turmeric may support prices. New crop arrivals have started in all the major producing centres of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Odisha. Production in theongoing season is expected to increase mainly on higher sowing area and favourable weather conditions in Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh etc. According to trade sources turmeric output is expected to bearound 7.5-8 million bags. India's Apr-Sept turmeric export stood at 59,000 ton up 47% on year, according to Spices Board data. The arrival of new turmeric has increased, but the price in the Regulated marketingCommittee has decreased. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association salesyard, finger turmeric sold at Rs. 5,499-8,209 a quintal, and the root variety sold at Rs. 5,252-7,309. At the Regulated Marketing Committee,finger turmeric sold at Rs. 6,379-7,474 a quintal, and the root variety at Rs. 6,039-6,899. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6023.1 Rupees dropped -131.45 Rupees.Technically market is underfresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 19.89% to settled at 13775 while prices down -128 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6270 and below same could see a test of 6224 level, Andresistance is now likely to be seen at 6406, a move above could see prices testing 6496.

Date : Friday, April 07, 2017 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 6

CLOSE 6314 RES-1 6406

% CNG -1.99 RES-2 6496 SELL TURMERIC MAY 2017 @ 6400 SL 6520 TGT 6280-6150.NCDEX

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 153 tonnes to 2161 tonnes.

19365 RES-1 19695 NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 12 tonnes to 732 tonnes.

% CNG 2.62 RES-2 20020 BUY JEERA MAY 2017 @ 19200 SL 19050 TGT 19380-19540.NCDEX

HIGH 19490 SUP-1 18840

LOW 18635 P.P. 19165

NCDEX Jeera May 2017 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 18760 SUP-2 18310 Jeera trading range for the day is 18310-20020.

DAILY MARKET LEVEL FOR METAL AND ENERGY

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -0.42% at 995.8 amid subdued physical demand for mentha oil in the domestic spot market. Prices also dropped on the speculation the area under cultivation can increase this yearresulting good production. Now on domestic side traders had estimated earlier total production in the range of 35000-37000 tons for this year, and currently it appears that the average estimate might be reduced to 30000tons due to lower plantings on falling prices in the last two years. Trade sources estimate that total area under Mentha planting has dropped by 20% to 1.75 lakh ha this season resulting into a proportionate fall in Mentha oilproduction this year. However, a pick up in sowing over last couple of weeks have ensured prices falling for the commodity, as low demand further pressurized market sentiments. At Sambhal market arrivals were reported at50 Drums(1-drum=180kg), down by 10 Drums(1-drum=180kg) from previous trading day. At Barabanki market arrivals were reported at 100 Drums(1-drum-180kg), steady as against previous day’s arrival. At Chandausimarket Mentha DMO is offered firm at Rs. 830 per Kg, up by 1.22 per cent as compared to previous day. Mentha Flakes at Chandausi market is quoted firm at Rs. 1150 per Kg, up by 1.77 per cent as compared to previousday. Mentha Crystal at Chandausi market is offered strong at Rs. 1185 per Kg, higher by 3.95 per cent as compared to previous day. Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1134.00 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.0.50/-.Technically now Menthaoil is getting support at 991.7 and below same could see a test of 987.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1002.1, a move above could see prices testing 1008.5.

SELL MENTHA OIL APR @ 1003 SL ABV 1012 TGT 993.50-984. MCX (STBT)

Prices also dropped on the speculation the area under cultivation can increase this year resulting good production.

Mentha oil prices dropped amid subdued physical demand for mentha oil in the domestic spot market.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1134.00 per 1kg. Spot prices was up by Rs.0.50/-.

153.8152.4150.5

143.9145.8147.2

1822

149.1

0.4

Date : Friday, April 07, 2017 URL : www.achiieversequitiesltd.com Page No - 7

Negative Negative

SPREAD 148 452 38.00 5.10 4.10 0.65 5.90

TREND Negative Negative Positive Positive Negative Negative Negative

0.50

637.7 124.428632 41901 3319 210.9 377.8

OI 6754 12179 13513 9804 13491 4704 28831 2902167.3 624.5 123.2

173.5 645.9 125.1171.1

P. POINT 28791 42145 3339 213.3 381.6

28383 41464 3268 204.6 371.2SUPPORT 28542 41708 3288 207.0 375.0

384.4 179.7 667.3 127.0177.3 659.1 126.3

RESISTANCE29130 42775 3421 223.5 391.0 185.9 688.7 128.929040 42582 3390 219.6 388.2 183.5 680.5 128.228881 42338 3370 217.2

CLOSE 28721 42093 3351 214.7

LEAD

148.6

CLOSE 995.8 RES-1 1002.1

% CNG -0.42 RES-2 1008.5

380.65 175.65 654.1 125.75

COMMODITIES GOLD SILVER CRUDE NAT.GAS COPPER ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

HIGH 1004.5 SUP-1 991.7

LOW 994.1 P.P. 998.1

MCX Menthaoil Apr 2017 TRADING IDEA

OPEN 999.0 SUP-2 987.7 Menthaoil trading range for the day is 987.7-1008.5.

11:30am EUR -0.001 0.02811:30am EUR 19.4B 18.5B12:15pm EUR 0 -5.4B12:15pm EUR 0.005 -0.00312:15pm EUR -4.9B -7.9B1:30pm EUR -0.001 0.0146:00pm USD 0.002 0.0026:00pm USD 174K 235K6:00pm USD 0.047 0.0477:30pm USD 0.001 -0.0019:45pm EUR 0 0

0 0 0 00 0 0 0

Japanese manufacturing activity expanded in March at a slightly slower pace than the previous monthas growth in new export orders and output slowed, a revised survey showed. The Final Markit/NikkeiJapan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 52.4 in March on a seasonally adjustedbasis from a final 53.3 in the previous month, and just below the flash reading for last month at 52.6.It pointed to the slowest growth in three months even though the index remained above the 50threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the seventh consecutive month. Final newexport orders eased to 51.9 from a preliminary 52.7 and from a final 54.3 in February. The overallthrust of the PMI numbers suggest Japan's economy recovery remains on a modest recovery path.Data last month showed a strong surge in February exports, backing signs that an uptick in overseasdemand continues to aid momentum in the trade-reliant economy. The final reading for output was53.0, versus the flash reading of 53.4 and below the 54.1 seen in February, although it still showedexpansion for the eighth consecutive month. Domestic demand has remained tepid for much of thepast year, and the PMI showed output prices were flat from February, suggesting the Bank of Japancontinues to face headwinds as it tries to get inflation to its 2 percent target.

NEWS YOU CAN USE

German Trade BalanceFrench Gov Budget BalanceFrench Industrial Production m/mFrench Trade BalanceItalian Retail Sales m/mAverage Hourly Earnings m/m

DAY

8

Living standards around the world could fall unless governments invest more in research andeducation that can help revive weak productivity growth, International Monetary Fund ManagingDirector Christine Lagarde warned. Lagarde said in a speech in Washington that the private sectoralone will not be able to generate enough innovation to lift productivity to acceptable levels withoutgovernment help. Her remarks were accompanied by release of an IMF study that found that the 2008-2009 financial crisis and deep recession played a bigger role in slowing productivity than previouslythought, stifling global demand and investment. "Another decade of weak productivity growth wouldseriously undermine the rise in global living standards," Lagarde told an audience at the AmericanEnterprise Institute, a pro-business think tank in Washington. "Slower growth could also jeopardizethe financial and social stability of some countries by making it more difficult to reduce excessiveinequality and sustain private debt and public obligations," she added. Lagarde said the post-crisisrecession has left a "permanent scar" on output per worker and total factor productivity, a broadmeasure of innovation that includes both labor and capital inputs.

Japanese big manufacturers' business confidence improved for a second straight quarter to hit a one-and-a-half year high in March, a closely watched central bank survey showed, a sign the benefits ofan export-driven economic recovery were broadening. Service-sector sentiment improved for the firsttime in six quarters and companies remained upbeat on their capital expenditure plans, the Bank ofJapan's "tankan" survey showed, offering hope the economic recovery will gather momentum incoming months. The data, which will be among factors the BOJ will scrutinize at its next rate reviewon April 26-27, reinforces a dominant market view the central bank's next policy move would be toreduce rather than expand monetary stimulus. The headline index measuring big manufacturers'business sentiment rose to plus 12 in March from plus 10 three months ago, the tankan showed onMonday, falling slightly short of market forecasts but marking the highest reading since December2015. The index gauging big non-manufacturers' sentiment improved 2 points from plus 20, rising forthe first time in six quarters and hitting the highest level since March 2016, the survey showed. Bigmanufacturers and non-manufacturers expect business conditions to deteriorate slightly in the comingthree months, as risks to global trade such as Britain's decision to leave the European Union and U.S.President Donald Trump's protectionist statements cloud the outlook.

Sugar production is likely to decline by 19 per cent to 20.3 million tonnes during sugar year (SY)2017, due to poor rainfall during previous monsoon in key producing states like Maharashtra andKarnataka, Icra said in a report. During SY17, Icra said, domestic sugar consumption is expected tofall by 4 per cent to around 24.0 million tonnes compared to SY16. "Despite a decline in the domesticproduction, we project the closing stocks at 4-4.5 million tonnes at the end of SY17 season, which willbe sufficient to meet the requirement of around two months of consumption," said Icra Ratings SeniorVice President Sabyasachi Majumdar."While this is lower than the normal stock requirement of threemonths, the levels of stocks will largely limit dependence on imports during SY17," Majumdar added.Icra opined sugar prices were likely to remain firm in the next 2-3 quarters, due to tight stockposition in the domestic and global markets. This was likely to augur well in terms of profitability ofthe UP-based sugar mills, it said. However, the western and southern sugar mills would continue tobe impacted by the decline in the cane crushing volumes for most of these units. While the pricesdeclined marginally during November-December 2016, it has recovered to around Rs 37,000 pertonne in January-March 2017, due to the tight stock situation. Although, Icra anticipates a 3-4 percent decline in domestic consumption during the SY17, this is unlikely to affect the prices, as the

Food Corporation of India (FCI) faces stiff competition from private entities in Madhya Pradesh onwheat procurement. The market price is presently above the government's Minimum Support Price(MSP). This has led the government-owned entity to set up camps near major harvesting centres, toease farmers’ transport and sale issues. “There is neck-and-neck competition between FCI and privateplayers in Madhya Pradesh, where procurement started a week ago. We believe only half the quantityoffered by farmers has come to us,” said a senior FCI official in the state. The agency has procuredabout 500,000 tonnes till now. FCI says it had procured 3.99 million tonnes of wheat from MP in the2016-17 rabi marketing season (RMS), 17.4 per cent of the 22.96 mt from across the country. For theRMS of 2017-18, the government’s target for FCI in the state is 8.5 mt. This, the official felt, wouldnot be achieved, with private agencies offering a higher price. “So, we started setting up purchasecentres near the major production belt. So, farmers supply to us, though we offer Rs 75-100 a quintalless, as they get timely payment. Also, farmers do not want to take a transportation risk in terms ofwheat supply to the mandis (wholesale markets). They are not sure of the selling price there, as thatfluctuates upon demand and supply. In case, wheat is not sold promptly in the market, they wouldhave to pay demurrage. By selling to us, they are sure of getting the MSP,” said the official.

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