Daily Commodity Roundup as on - Systematix Groupreport.systematixshares.com/Commodity/SYSTEMATIX... · expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike this month. Since its April peak gold

Daily Commodity Roundup as on Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Date : Wednesday, September 12, 2018 URL : www.systematixshares.com Page No : 1

14.07CRUDE $

69.25

-0.35 -0.42 2.53

IN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

L M

AR

KET U

PD

ATE GOLD $

1194.17SILVER $

USDJPY111.488

-0.12 -0.09 -0.1EURUSD

1.1586GBPUSD

1.30053

LME

NICKEL

12165

-0.03 0.58 -0.41

LME

COPPER

5878 LME

ZINC

2335

$ INDEX95.19

0.15 0.66 0.08

LME ALUMINIUM

2053 LME

LEAD

1986

DJIA25857

-1.34 -1.32 -0.23SENSEX

37413NIFTY

11288


NIKKEI22561

0.37 0.19 -0.46USDINR

72.82 S&P

INDEX

2877

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MCX Gold Oct 2018

Gold prices held steady as investors remained on the sidelines amid expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike this month.

Gold prices held steady as investors remained on the sidelines amid

expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike this month. Since its April peak

gold has dropped more than 12 percent as a trade war between China

and the U.S. has driven investors to seek safety in the dollar rather than

in gold, a traditional safe haven. Bearish bets on Comex gold have risen

to record levels while investors have liquidated exchange-traded gold

fund holdings. The dollar was little changed versus a currency basket,

with the euro underpinned by easing concerns over Italian debt and the

British pound near five-week highs on hopes of a Brexit deal with the

European Union. Broadly underpinning the dollar were Friday’s comments

from U.S. President Donald Trump that he was ready to impose tariffs on

virtually all Chinese imports to the United States. Furthermore, U.S.

payrolls data last week cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve

will raise U.S. interest rates in September. The trade conflict has

prompted investors to buy the U.S. dollar in the belief that the United

States has less to lose from the dispute, making dollar-priced gold more

expensive for non-U.S. buyers. Traders were bracing for a potential

escalation in the Sino-U.S. row after President Donald Trump said last

week that he was ready to impose tariffs on virtually all Chinese imports

to the United States. China told the World Trade Organization on Tuesday

it wanted to impose $7 billion a year in sanctions on the United States in

retaliation for Washington’s non-compliance with a ruling in a dispute

over U.S. dumping duties. Technically now Gold is getting support at

30588 and below same could see a test of 30460 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 30791, a move above could see prices testing

30866.

OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHANGE OPEN INTEREST

30630

SUPPORT 3

30994 30866 30791 30588 30460 30385

30738 30535 30717 0.01 8981

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2


Trading Ideas :Gold trading range for the day is 30460-30866.

Strong U.S. payrolls data cemented expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September, in what would be its third hike this year.

Traders were bracing for a potential escalation in the Sino-U.S. row after President Donald Trump raised the stakes by saying he was ready to impose tariffs.

Meanwhile, physical gold buying waned slightly in Asia this week as investors waited to see if prices would fall further.

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MCX Silver Dec 2018

Silver remained under pressure with investors reticent to bid up the metal in the face of looming U.S. interest rate increases and escalating Sino-U.S. trade tensions.

Silver remained under pressure with investors reticent to bid up the metal

in the face of looming U.S. interest rate increases and escalating Sino-

U.S. trade tensions. The euro underpinned by easing concerns over

Italian debt and the British pound near five-week highs on hopes of a

Brexit deal with the European Union. Meanwhile, China is planning to ask

the WTO for permission to impose sanctions on the U.S., according to a

WTO meeting agenda. Beijing will formally place the request next week,

as an apparent response to remarks from Trump. Broadly underpinning

the dollar were Friday’s comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that

he was ready to impose tariffs on virtually all Chinese imports to the

United States. Furthermore, U.S. payrolls data last week cemented

expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates in

September. That would be the third increase this year, with expectations

of another in December. The ZEW's measure of economic sentiment

climbed to -10.6 from -13.7 in August, the Mannheim-based think tank

said. The US sales at wholesale were unchanged in July after dipping

0.2% in June. At July's sales pace it would take wholesalers 1.26 months

to clear shelves, up from 1.25 in June. The wholesale inventories

increased 0.6% instead of gaining 0.7% as reported last month. Given

strong domestic demand, businesses are likely to boost stocks of goods,

which should underpin production at factories. Technically market is

under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by

2.15% to settled at 26453 while prices down -93 rupees, now Silver is

getting support at 37100 and below same could see a test of 36800 level,

And resistance is now likely to be seen at 37605, a move above could see

prices testing 37810.


37362 37510

38110 37810 37605 37100 36800 36595

37005 37401 -0.25 26453

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Silver trading range for the day is 36800-37810.

Furthermore, U.S. payrolls data last week cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates in September.

The wholesale inventories increased 0.6% instead of gaining 0.7% as reported last month. Stocks at wholesalers edged up 0.1% in June.

The trade conflict has prompted investors to buy the U.S. dollar in the belief that the United States has less to lose from the dispute.

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MCX Crudeoil Sep 2018

Crude oil rose after a report of falling crude inventories and the looming sanctions against Iran fueled expectations of a tightening market.

Crudeoil on MCX settled up 2.6% at 5044 after a report of falling crude

inventories and the looming sanctions against Iran fueled expectations of

a tightening market. Prices were also pushed up by Hurricane Florence,

which is expected to make landfall on the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and

which has caused fuel shortages following the evacuation of millions of

households and businesses. The global oil market has recovered from an

oversupply crisis thanks to a 2016 Vienna accord to curb output but

remains "fragile" due to geopolitics and production declines in some

nations, Russia's energy minister said. "Today, the situation is quite

fragile, of course, and it is related to the fact that not all the countries

have managed to restore their market and production," Russian Energy

Minister Alexander Novak said at an economic conference in the Russian

far eastern city of Vladivostok. "We observe such situation in Mexico,

where the decline more than halved from the forecasts on 2018. In

Venezuela production is falling quite strongly, by 50,000 barrels per day.

This means that the market is still not balanced in long-term

perspective." U.S. crude stocks fell by 8.6 million barrels in the week to

September 7 to 395.9 million barrels, the American Petroleum Institute

(API), a private industry group, said. Outside the United States, traders

have been focusing on the impact of looming U.S. sanctions against Iran,

which will target oil exports from November. Technically market is under

fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 21.72% to

settled at 14247 while prices up 128 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting

support at 4938 and below same could see a test of 4833 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 5101, a move above could see

prices testing 5159.


4905 5054

5264 5159 5101 4938 4833 4775

4891 5044 2.60 14247

RESIST 3 RESIST 2 RESIST 1 SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 SUPPORT 3


Trading Ideas :Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4833-5159.

The global oil market has recovered from an oversupply crisis thanks to a 2016 Vienna accord to curb output but remains "fragile" due to geopolitics.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that the OPEC+ oil group may sign a new long-term cooperation deal at the beginning of December.

OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC members agreed in June to return to 100 percent compliance with oil output cuts that began in January 2017.

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MCX Copper Nov 2018

Copper eases as Sino-U.S. trade war raises demand concerns

Copper on MCX settled down -0.29% at 425.55 while prices recovered

from the day's low as support seen from Rupee weakness and LME

Copper prices which edged higher as the euro gained versus the dollar

amid easing concerns about Italian debt, even as most investors

remained cautious about any further escalation in the U.S.-China trade

dispute. LME copper was up 0.7 percent at $5,951 a tonne, after falling to

as low as $5,879 earlier in the session. The most-traded copper contract

on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed 0.5 percent higher at 47,910

yuan ($6,983) a tonne. China’s trade surplus with the United States

widened to a record in August even as its export growth slowed slightly,

an outcome that could push Trump to turn up the heat on Beijing. Last

night the US dollar fell against the Canadian dollar, which was buoyed by

a resumed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) trade

negotiations between the two counties Tuesday. Both Canada's Foreign

Minister and President Donald Trump said the talks were productive so

far. The US dollar inched down 0.08% to settle at 95.07. Base metals

dipped across the board as LME lead led the losses and closed 2.21%

lower. LME zinc slumped 1.78%, nickel lost 1.57%, aluminium fell 1.3%,

and SHFE nickel went down 1.27%, zinc declined 1.18%, and aluminium

slid 1.02%. Now Market participants should monitor data including the US

producer price index (PPI) for August, and its EIA weekly crude inventory

data. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has

witnessed drop in open interest by -27.67% to settled at 13667, now

Copper is getting support at 420.8 and below same could see a test of

415.9 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 430.8, a move

above could see prices testing 435.9.


426.80

SUPPORT 3

440.8 435.9 430.8 420.8 415.9 410.8

431.05 421.00 425.55 -0.29 13667


Trading Ideas :Copper trading range for the day is 415.9-435.9.

Trade dispute between the United States and China raised concerns over demand for industrial metals

China’s copper imports fell 6.7 percent from a month ago to 420,000 tonnes in August, data showed.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 234300mt that is down by -4450mt.


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MCX Zinc Sep 2018

Zinc dropped amid concern that an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China will erode demand.

Zinc on MCX settled down -2.14% at 169 tracking weakness from LME

zinc fell further after a rebound, due to limited upward momentum, and

settled the night 1.78% lower at $2,321/mt. Also sentiments remain

down as LME zinc inventories have climbed 74 percent since the

beginning of March to 229,675 tonnes. As risk aversion sentiment is

unlikely to ease in the short run, expectations of production resumption

after environmental curbs also weighed on the price. Despite growing

signs of physical tightness across the base metals complex, a negative

macroeconomic backdrop continues to trump fundamentals. The upside

momentum remains capped, with buyers reluctant to establish their

dominance due to the simmering trade tensions between the US and

China. Concerns over a fresh set of US tariffs targeting $200 billion worth

of Chinese goods, due to come into effect last week, and Chinese

authorities’ vows to retaliate against any further tariffs continue to

undermine market confidence. As such, global risk sentiment remains

clouded by fear and uncertainty. Meanwhile China will respond if the

United States takes any new steps on trade, the foreign ministry said on

Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump warned he was ready to slap

tariffs on virtually all Chinese imports into the United States. Base metals

dipped across the board as LME lead led the losses and closed 2.21%

lower. LME zinc slumped 1.78%, nickel lost 1.57%, aluminium fell 1.3%,

and SHFE nickel went down 1.27%, zinc declined 1.18%, and aluminium

slid 1.02%. Now Market participants should monitor data including the US

producer price index (PPI) for August, and its EIA weekly crude inventory

data. Technically market is getting support at 167.1 and below same

could see a test of 165 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at

172.6, a move above could see prices testing 176.


173.9

SUPPORT 3

178.1 176.0 172.6 167.1 165.0 161.6

173.9 168.5 169.0 -2.14 7959


Trading Ideas :Zinc trading range for the day is 165-176.

China's consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose 2.3% year on year in August, compared with 2.1% for July.

Eurozone investor confidence deteriorated unexpectedly in September, survey data from think tank Sentix showed.

Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 229675mt that is up by 125mt.


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MCX Nickel Sep 2018

Nickel dropped as an intensifying trade war between Washington and Beijing raised concerns over demand for industrial metals in top consumer China.

Nickel on MCX settled down -1.49% at 887.40 tracking benchmark nickel

on the London Metal Exchange closed down 1.5 percent at $12,230 a

tonne after hitting $12,165, its weakest since Dec. 29 last year as the US

dollar stayed at highs and trade war worries remained, LME nickel

declined to an eight-month low and the SHFE 1811 fell to the lowest in

five months overnight. Nickel hit an eight-month low and zinc slipped to

its lowest in three weeks on Tuesday as speculators added bearish

positions against the backdrop of persistent international trade concerns

and a slide in steel prices. Concerns still prevails in the market as US

President Donald Trump warned last week that he was ready to levy

additional tariffs on practically all Chinese imports, while China is

prepared to ask the World Trade Organization next week for permission to

impose sanctions on the United States. The U.S. dollar rebounded from

losses and was trading 0.1 percent firmer, making dollar-denominated

assets such as commodities more expensive for buyers using other

currencies. Last night the US dollar fell against the Canadian dollar, which

was buoyed by a resumed North American Free Trade Agreement

(NAFTA) trade negotiations between the two counties Tuesday. Now

Market participants should monitor data including the US PPI for August,

and its EIA weekly crude inventory data. Technically market is under

fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.78% to

settled at 14102 while prices down -13.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting

support at 880.8 and below same could see a test of 874.2 level, And

resistance is now likely to be seen at 898.5, a move above could see

prices testing 909.6.


901.3

SUPPORT 3

916.2 909.6 898.5 880.8 874.2 863.1

903 885.3 887.4 -1.49 14102


Trading Ideas :Nickel trading range for the day is 874.2-909.6.

China will respond if the United States takes any new steps on trade, after U.S. President Donald Trump warned he was ready to slap tariffs.

China’s trade surplus with US widened to a record in August even as its export growth slowed slightly, an outcome that could push Trump to turn up the heat on Beijing.

Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 236340mt that is down by -726mt.


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NCDEX Jeera Oct 2018

Jeera prices ended with gains amid pick-up in domestic as well as exports demand at the spot market.

Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.23% at 19465 amid pick-up in domestic

as well as exports demand at the spot market. Further, tight stocks

position on fall in arrivals from the growing regions also added supported

to jeera prices uptrend. However, upside seen limited due to improved

rains in the central Gujarat major Jeera producing area. As per trade

information, crop damaged reported in Syria and Turkey due to heavy

rainfall in June support Indian Jeera in International market. Quality wise

(due to heavy rainfall) and price wise Indian Jeera more affordable than

other producing country. Lower Jeera supply reported in the spot market

during the period, as stockists were holding back their stocks on

expectations of higher prices in coming days. Jeera supply from last year

up by 100% due to increased production current year. Currently, all India

stocks reported around 25 – 27 lakh bags. According to export data

released by Commerce ministry, exports in June surged 55.7% on year

to21,404 tonnes. Moreover, country exports about 75,242 tonnes of Jeera

during Apr-Jun 2018. Jeera arrivals during July are pegged at 8,700

tonnes compared to 3,800 tonnes last year for same period. India is

expected to export a record 175,000 tn of jeera in 2018-19 (Apr-Mar),

primarily because supply from its competitors has taken a hit making it

the sole supplier of the largely sought after spice. In Unjha, a key spot

market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 10 Rupees to end at 19450 Rupees

per 100 kg.Technically now Jeera is getting support at 19340 and below

same could see a test of 19210 level, And resistance is now likely to be

seen at 19590, a move above could see prices testing 19710.


19525

SUPPORT 3

20190 19960 19820 19450 19220 19080

19730 19360 19680 1.10 7914


Trading Ideas :Jeera trading range for the day is 6560-6560.

However, upside seen limited due to improved rains in the central Gujarat major Jeera producing area.

NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 267 tonnes to 2933 tonnes.

In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujrat, jeera remains unchanged at0 rupees to end at 19500 rupee per 100 kg.


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NCDEX Turmeric Oct 2018

Turmeric prices seen supported tracking firmness in spot demand on lower arrival.

Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 0.27% at 6696 tracking firmness in

spot demand on lower arrival. Prices also seen supported on anticipation

of upcountry demand and on poor quality stocks. Despite last year's

lower output stocks of turmeric are stated to be comfortable and would be

more than sufficient to meet the demand in coming months. Moreover,

crop conditions are good in all the states along with increased acreage. In

Telangana, turmeric acreage rose to 47,790 hectare from 44,956 hectare

a year ago, state government data showed. In Andhra Pradesh farmers

planted turmeric over an area 17,000 hectares until September 6 up from

14,000 hectares a year ago. India exported 107,300 ton turmeric during

2017-18 as down from 116,500 ton a year ago. Besides, restricted

supplies from growing regions also added to the upside. However, upside

seen limited due to improved sowing and lower exports demand and

tracking higher acreage during current season at key turmeric growing

regions. The spot market is likely to get festive demand in coming weeks

which can prompt buying again in turmeric. In Telangana, Turmeric

acreage was reported at 47,114 hectares in the corresponding period last

year. Current sowing stands at 86 percent of normal for the season. In

Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6930.95

Rupees gained 21.55 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as

market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.42% to settled at 11775

while prices up 18 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6650 and

below same could see a test of 6602 level, And resistance is now likely to

be seen at 6738, a move above could see prices testing 6778.


6716

SUPPORT 3

6826 6778 6738 6650 6602 6562

6730 6642 6696 0.27 11775


Trading Ideas :Turmeric trading range for the day is 6602-6778.

Prices also seen supported on anticipation of upcountry demand and on poor quality stocks.

NCDEX accredited warehouses turmeric stocks gained by 91 tonnes to 4459 tonnes.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6930.95 Rupees gained 21.55 Rupees.


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MCX Menthaoil Sep 2018

Mentha oil dropped on profit booking amid subdued demand at the spot market.

Mentha oil on MCX settled down by -1.36% at 1787.8 on profit booking

amid subdued demand at the spot market. Further, ample stock positions

on higher supplies from the major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar

Pradesh too weighed on mentha oil prices. Anticipation of bumper crop

harvest and nearing of harvesting season adding negativity to the

market. As per preliminary estimates, acreage under mentha crop will

rise this year as the farmers are encouraged by higher price in recent

past. As per trade sources, all the major markets are likely to witness

higher inflow of the produce. There could be chances of crop damage to

certain extend due to unfavourable weather condition. Besides, farmers

are likely to hold back the stocks as the present prices are not

remunerative for them. However, in recent years, the growth in

production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the

demand for natural mentha. As per sources, India contributes around

80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production

stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between

30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, mentha oil production in

India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. As per the

data, the global demand of essential oil will increase in the coming years.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1916.80 per 1kg. Spot prices was

down by Rs.-53.60/-.Technically market is under long liquidation as

market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.77% to settled at 1353

while prices down -24.7 rupees, now Menthaoil is getting support at

1775.6 and below same could see a test of 1763.4 level, And resistance is

now likely to be seen at 1800.5, a move above could see prices testing

1813.2.


1795.00

SUPPORT 3

1825.4 1813.2 1800.5 1775.6 1763.4 1750.7

1801.00 1776.10 1787.80 -1.36 1353


Trading Ideas :Menthaoil trading range for the day is 1763.4-1813.2.

Mentha oil spot at Sambhal closed at 1916.80 per 1kg. Spot prices was down by Rs.-53.60/-.

Further, ample stock positions on higher supplies from the major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too weighed on mentha oil prices.

Anticipation of bumper crop harvest and nearing of harvesting season adding negativity to the market.


TIME ZONE Forecast

CommodityLME STOCK Stock

COPPER -4450 234300

ALUMINIUM -5300 1054525

NICKEL -726 236340

LEAD -200 120300

ZINC 125 229675

4003 23030 19680 4279 6696 4214 605.9 3262

DAILY MARKET TRADING LEVEL

COMMODITIESNCDEX CHANA Oct

2018

NCDEX Cotton Oct

2018

NCDEX Jeera Oct

2018

NCDEX Guarseed10

Oct 2018

NCDEX Turmeric

Oct 2018

NCDEX Rmseed Oct

2018MCX CPO Sep 2018

NCDEX Soyabean

Oct 2018

NCDEX

Ref.Soya oil

Oct 2018

746.05CLOSE

P. POINT 3980 23080 19590 4294 6690 4208

4030 23190 19820 4323 6738 4235

RESISTANCE

4108 23460 20190 4395 6826 4284

607.1 3249 747

752

4058 23350 19960 4366 6778 4257 611.4 3303 750

613.0 3337

608.7 3283 749

4222 6602 4159 602.8 3195 744

3952 22920 19450 4251 6650 4186 604.4 3229

743

Cng in OI 6.77 -1.28 5.27 -5.05 1.42 18.52 0.09 0.47 5.95

SUPPORT

3874 22650 19080 4179 6562 4137 600.1 3175

746

3902 22810 19220

Fresh Selling

LME DAILY STOCK POSITION ECONOMICAL DATA

DATA Previous

1:30pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m -0.004 0.005

TREND Fresh Buying Long Liquidation Fresh Buying Long Liquidation Fresh Buying Fresh Selling Fresh Selling Fresh Buying

2:30pm EUR Industrial Production m/m -0.005 -0.007

2:30pm EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate 0.108 0.111

Tentative EUR German 30-y Bond Auction 0 0.94|1.6

6:00pm USD PPI m/m 0.002 0

6:00pm USD Core PPI m/m 0.002 0.001

8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.3M -4.3M

10:15pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 0 0

10:31pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 0 2.96|2.5

11:30pm USD Beige Book 0 0


-4450

-5300

-726

-200

125

-6000

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

COPPER ALUMINIUM NICKEL LEAD ZINC

LME STOCK

NEWS YOU CAN USE

U.S. job growth likely accelerated in August, with the unemployment rate expected to have fallen back to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent, which would bolster views that

the economy was so far weathering the Trump administration’s escalating trade war with China. The administration’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package and increased

government spending were shielding the economy from the trade tensions, which have also seen Washington engaged in tit-for-tat tariffs with other trade partners,

including the European Union, Canada and Mexico. The import duties implemented so far have affected only a small portion of the American economy, but warned this

could change if President Donald Trump pressed ahead with additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The United States and China have slapped retaliatory tariffs on a

combined $100 billion of products since early July. Americans had until Thursday to comment on a list of $200 billion worth of Chinese goods widely expected to be hit

with tariffs soon. The government imposed import duties on goods including steel, aluminum, washing machines, lumber and solar panels early this year to protect

American industries from what Trump says is unfair foreign competition. August job growth could, however, fall short of expectations because of a seasonal quirk. Over

the past several years, the initial August job count has tended to exhibit a weak bias, with revisions subsequently showing strength.

An OPEC and non-OPEC technical committee will next week discuss proposals for sharing out an oil-output increase, sources familiar with the matter said, a tense topic for

the producer group after it decided in June to ease supply curbs. A panel called the Joint Technical Committee will on Tuesday consider proposals on distributing the

agreed output increase of 1 million barrels per day, the sources said. "The talks will look at various mechanisms" to reach the required production level, a source said. If

resolved, the talks could lead to an easing of tensions within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Iran had been against the June decision, which came

amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to reduce oil prices. There are four proposals on how to distribute the increase, presented by Iran, Algeria, Russia and

Venezuela, one of the sources said, suggesting agreement will not be straightforward. One idea, to share it pro-rata among participating countries, is unlikely to be

approved by Russia and Saudi Arabia since it would give them less than the supply boosts of 300,000 and 400,000 bpd that they respectively want, the source said.

OPEC, Russia and other non-members agreed in June to return to 100 percent compliance with oil output cuts that began in January 2017. Months of underproduction in

Venezuela and elsewhere had pushed adherence above 160 percent. The June meeting concluded with a deep disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, longtime

rivals in OPEC. Saudi Arabia said the decision implied a reallocation of extra production from countries unable to produce more to those, such as Riyadh, that can. Iran,

facing a forced cut in its oil exports because of U.S. sanctions, disagreed.

India’s prospects for oilmeal exports to China have brightened after the latest measures taken by the two countries to end a six-year-old ban imposed by China in 2012.

Late last month, the Union Ministry of Commerce and Indian Embassy in Beijing decided to cover all 12 pests under the phyto-sanitary certificate to enable China’s

General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ) to clear Indian consignments of oilmeals. However, even as the Indian government

takes proactive measures, a formal reconfirmation on the same is awaited from China, which is in need of alternative sources of oilmeal to feed its animals. In a

statement, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) said: “The ongoing trade dispute between the US and China has created a lot of uncertainty, forcing China to

look out to other origins for their requirements of soyabean and oilmeals. This has compelled China to re-look its ban imposed for importing of oilmeals from India since

2012.” Prior to the ban, China imported nearly half a million tonnes of oilmeals from India, mainly rapeseed meal of 350,000-400,000 tonnes and 100,000 tonnes of

soyameal. In its monthly statement on export of oilmeals, the SEA stated that overall oilmeal exports from April to August 2018 were reported at 1,192,095 tonnes as

compared to 986,606 tonnes during the same period last year, indicating a rise of 21 per cent. According to the SEA, export of rapeseed meal sharply increased to nearly

490,232 tonnes during the period, a rise of nearly 107 per cent against the same period last year. The surge has been driven by exports to South Korea, Vietnam and

Thailand.



The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is

made as to its accuracy completeness or correctness.

This document is for information purposes only. This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and one should exercise due caution while acting on it. Descriptions of any commodities mentioned herein are not

complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any commodities/commodity derivatives. Past performance is not a guide for future performance, future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur.

All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as on the date of the report and these, plus any other information contained in the report, are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without

notice.

This report is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability

or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject to Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited (SCSPL) or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such

country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S.Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or

Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. Any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure of this report including, but not limited to, redistribution by electronic mail, posting of the report on a website or page, and/or providing to a third party

a link, is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the Report is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any third party.

SCSPL generally prohibits its analyst(s), persons reporting to analyst(s), and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the commodities or commodity derivatives that the analyst(s) cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may

provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations

expressed herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in

this report. The compensation of the analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by SCSPL however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a part. Research analyst(s) and

sales persons of SCSPL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).

Foreign currency denominated commodities, wherever mentioned are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively

assume currency risk.

SCSPL, its directors, analyst(s) or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report including but not restricted to changes in the currency rates, reduction in

the income, etc.

SCSPL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities/commodities derivatives thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such

commodities/commodity derivatives and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest) or act as a market maker in the financial instruments discussed herein or have other potential material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and

opinions. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to the views expressed therein.

SCSPL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without

limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SCSPL, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties. The

Report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the Report refers to website material of the Company, the Company has not reviewed the linked site. Accessing such website or following such link through the report or the website of

the Company shall be at your own risk and the Company shall have no liability arising out of, or in connection with, any such referenced website

SCSPL shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall the SCSPL be liable for any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or

consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SCSPL through this presentation.

Neither SCSPL, nor any of its other group companies or associates, shall be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their Investment and Tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.

Systematix Commodities Services Private Limited.:

Registered and Corporate address: The Capital, A-wing, No. 603 – 606, 6th Floor, Plot No. C-70, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051

CIN - U01119MH1994PTC266348 | MCX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 | NCDEX SEBI Reg No.: INZ000043009 Member Code: MCX: 29790 | NCDEX: 534

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