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06 April 2021
Daily Outlook GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L |
GLOBAL ECONOMIES
Japan’s services sector activity extended declines in March as businesses struggled to fully shake off the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, a private survey showed, but the pace of the downturn was the slowest since January last year. Some businesses said that an easing of coronavirus-related curbs that were imposed from early January for Tokyo and other prefectures led to a modest recovery in demand. The final au Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 48.3 from the previous month’s 46.3 and a preliminary 46.5 reading.
A measure of U.S. services industry activity surged to a record high in March amid robust growth in new orders, in the latest indication of a roaring economy that is being boosted by increased vaccinations and massive fiscal stimulus. The upbeat survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday followed news on Friday that the economy added 916,000 jobs in March, the most in seven months. Economic growth this year is expected to be the strongest in nearly four decades. The ISM’s non-manufacturing activity index rebounded to a reading of 63.7 last month also due to warmer weather.
New orders for U.S.-made goods fell in February, likely weighed down by unseasonably cold weather, though manufacturing remains strong as the economic recovery regains steam amid an improving public health situation and massive fiscal stimulus. The Commerce Department said on Monday that factory orders dropped 0.8% after surging 2.7% in January.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday that she is working with G20 countries to agree on a global corporate minimum tax rate and pledged that restoring U.S. multilateral leadership would strengthen the global economy and advance U.S. interests. A global minimum tax proposed by the Biden administration could help to end a “30-year race to the bottom on corporate tax rates,” Yellen told an online event hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. The global minimum tax is a key pillar of President Joe Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure spending plan, which calls for an increase in the U.S. corporate tax rate to 28% while eliminating some deductions associated with overseas profits.
GLOBAL MARKETS
A string of surprisingly robust economic data boosted investor risk appetite on Monday, which sent the S&P 500 and the Dow to all-time closing highs and boosted cryptocurrency market cap over the $2 trillion hurdle.
Friday’s employment report showed the economy added 916,000 jobs last month, suggesting stimulus and vaccine deployment have jump-started what could be the strongest yearly economic performance in decades. Enthusiasm over the growing momentum of economic recovery was boosted on Monday with the Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing PMI report, which showed the pandemic-battered services sector expanded at a record pace in March.
European and Australian stock markets were closed in observance of Easter Monday, while China’s stock market was dark in observance of Tomb Sweeping day. MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.97%. Emerging market stocks rose 0.06%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.03% higher, while Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.79%.
U.S. Treasury yields dipped as investors consolidated their positions, though the uptrend remains intact in the wake of Friday’s payrolls report. Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 3/32 in price to yield 1.7127%, from 1.72% late on Friday. The 30-year bond last rose 7/32 in price to yield 2.3541%, from 2.37% late on Friday.
FOREX
The dollar dipped to one-week lows against a basket of currencies on Monday as stocks hit record highs and Treasury yields held below recent highs, though analysts said low liquidity with many parts of the world off for Easter holidays was likely exaggerating the move. The dollar has rebounded this year along with rising U.S. Treasury yields as investors bet on faster U.S. economic growth and higher inflation as the economy reopens after COVID-19-related business shutdowns. But the dollar’s drop on Monday even after strong jobs data on Friday may indicate that much of the bullish outlook is priced in, at least for the near-term. The greenback had rallied on Friday after data showed that the U.S. economy created the most jobs in seven months in March as more Americans got vaccinated and the government doled out additional pandemic relief money, marking the start of what could be the strongest economic performance this year in nearly four decades. The dollar fell 0.40% against a basket of currencies on Monday to 92.59. It has fallen from 93.44 on Wednesday, which was the highest since Nov. 5. The euro gained 0.50% to $1.1811. Sterling rose 0.57% to 1.3903. The Australian dollar, which typically rises when risk appetite is strong, gained 0.78% to
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06 April 2021
$0.7653. Data on Monday showed that a measure of U.S. services industry activity surged to a record high in March amid robust growth in new orders. The greenback has generally risen as stocks gain for the past few months. Investors are now watching to see if that relationship continues as it may indicate a shift in how the currency responds to improving risk appetite. Investors are also focused on U.S. President Joe Biden’s proposed infrastructure plan, which would involve raising corporate taxes to pay for the new spending. Biden would be willing to push through his $2 trillion infrastructure plan without the support of Republican lawmakers if he cannot reach a bipartisan deal, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Sunday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday that she was working with G20 countries to agree on a global corporate minimum tax rate to end a “30-year race to the bottom on corporate tax rates.” The cryptocurrency market capitalization hit an all-time peak of $2 trillion on Monday, according to data and market trackers CoinGecko and Blockfolio, as gains over the last several months attracted demand from both institutional and retail investors. Bitcoin was last up 1.16% on the day at $58,888.
GOLD
Gold prices eased on Monday as hopes for a swift economic recovery following strong U.S. jobs and services sector data bolstered gains on Wall Street, although a softer dollar limited the precious metal's decline. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,727.64 per ounce as of 2:34 p.m EDT (1834 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled little changed at $1,728.80. The S&P 500 and the Dow hit record highs on data that showed the U.S. economy created the most jobs in seven months in March. Meanwhile, a measure of services industry activity surged to a record high. The dollar hit a more than one-week low, making bullion less expensive for holders of other currencies and limiting gold's losses. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden's announcement of a long-awaited $2 trillion-plus job plan last week has fueled concerns over inflation. On investors' radar were minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting on Wednesday. Silver dropped 1% to $24.73 per ounce, and palladium fell 0.3% to $2,658.25. Platinum eased 0.3% to $1,206.28 per ounce after hitting its highest level since March 18 earlier in the session at $1,218.
OIL
Oil fell more than $3 a barrel on Monday as rising supply from OPEC+ and higher Iranian output countered signs of a strong economic rebound in the United States. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, agreed on Thursday to monthly production hikes from May to July. OPEC member Iran, exempt from making voluntary cuts, is also boosting supply. Brent crude for June fell $3.08, or 4.8%, to $61.78 a barrel by 1:42 p.m. EDT (1742 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for May dropped $3.21, or 5.2%, to $58.24. In another development that could eventually boost supply, investors are focused on indirect talks between Iran and the United States as part of negotiations to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran has already boosted exports to China despite the sanctions. Oil has recovered from historic lows last year with the support of record OPEC+ cuts, most of which will remain after July. Demand is expected to recover further in the second half. While a slow vaccine rollout and return to lockdown in parts of Europe have weighed, figures on Friday showed the U.S. economy created the most jobs in seven months in March. Still, tightening lockdowns in France and a spike of cases in India have darkened the outlook for a global economic rebound to boost oil demand.
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06 April 2021
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.
Mon/05-Apr-21 07:30 JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Composite Mar F 49.9 -- 48.3 48.2 07:30 JP Jibun Bank Japan PMI Services Mar F 48.3 -- 46.5 46.3 All NZ Bank Holiday (Easter Monday)
All AU Bank Holiday (Easter Monday) All CH Bank Holiday (Easter Monday) All CN Bank Holiday (Public Holiday)
All HK Bank Holiday (Public Holiday) All DE Bank Holiday (Easter Monday)
20:45 US Markit US Composite PMI Mar F 59.7 59.1 59.1 59.5 20:45 US Markit US Services PMI Mar F 60.4 60 60 59.8 21:00 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Feb F -0.8% -- -0.8% -0.7%
21:00 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Feb F -- -1% -- 21:00 US Durable Goods Orders Feb F -- -1.1% -- 21:00 US Durables Ex Transportation Feb F -- -0.9% --
21:00 US Factory Orders Feb -0.8% -0.5% 2.6% 2.7% 21:00 US Factory Orders Ex Trans Feb -0.6% -- 1.7% 1.8%
21:00 US ISM Services Index Mar 57.3 55.3 --
Tue/06-Apr-21 06:30 JP Real Cash Earnings YoY Feb -- -0.1% -- All HK Bank Holiday (Easter) 08:30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements MoM Mar -- 7.2% --
08:30 AU Home Loans Value MoM Feb -- 10.5% -- 08:30 AU Investor Loan Value MoM Feb -- 9.4% --
08:45 CN Caixin China PMI Composite Mar -- 51.7 -- 08:45 CN Caixin China PMI Services Mar 52.1 51.5 -- 11:30 AU RBA 3-Yr Yield Target Apr-06 -- 0.1% --
11:30 AU RBA Cash Rate Target Apr-06 -- 0.1% -- 15:30 EZ Sentix Investor Confidence Apr -- 5 -- 16:00 EZ Unemployment Rate Feb -- 8.1% --
Wed/07-Apr-21 05:00 AU Markit Australia PMI Composite Mar F -- 56.2 --
05:00 AU Markit Australia PMI Services Mar F -- 56.2 -- 05:30 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index Mar -- 57.4 --
06:00 KR BoP Current Account Balance Feb -- $7060.0m -- 06:00 KR BoP Goods Balance Feb -- $5733.8m -- 06:30 AU ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index Apr-04 -- -- --
08:00 NZ ANZ Commodity Price Mar -- 3.3% -- 12:00 JP Coincident Index Feb P -- 90.3 -- 12:00 JP Leading Index CI Feb P -- 98.5 --
14:55 DE Markit Germany Services PMI Mar F -- 50.8 -- 14:55 DE Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Mar F -- 56.8 --
15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar F -- 52.5 -- 15:00 EZ Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar F -- 48.8 -- 15:30 GB Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI Mar F -- 56.6 --
15:30 GB Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Mar F -- 56.8 -- 19:30 US Trade Balance Feb -$68.3b -$68.2b --
20:00 US Fed’s Evans Discusses Economic Outlook 21:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA Mar -- 60 -- 21:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Apr-02 -- -- --
21:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Apr-02 -- -- -- 21:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Apr-02 -- -- -- 21:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Apr-02 -- -- --
21:30 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization Apr-02 -- -- --
Tue/08-Apr-21 01:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes Mar-17 -- -- -- 02:00 US Consumer Credit Feb -- -$1.315b --
06:50 JP BoP Current Account Adjusted Feb -- ¥1499.8b -- 06:50 JP BoP Current Account Balance Feb -- ¥646.8b -- 06:50 JP Trade Balance BoP Basis Feb -- -¥130.1b --
07:30 HK Markit Hong Kong PMI Mar -- 50.2 -- 08:00 NZ ANZ Activity Outlook Apr P -- -- -- 08:00 NZ ANZ Business Confidence Apr P -- -- --
12:00 JP Consumer Confidence Index Mar -- 33.8 -- 13:00 DE Factory Orders MoM Feb -- 1.4% --
13:00 DE Factory Orders WDA YoY Feb -- 2.5% -- 13:00 JP Eco Watchers Survey Current SA Mar -- 41.3 --
13:00 JP Eco Watchers Survey Outlook SA Mar -- 51.3 --
14:30 DE Markit Germany Construction PMI Mar -- 41 --
15:30 GB Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Mar -- 53.3 --
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06 April 2021
16:00 EZ PPI MoM Feb -- 1.4% --
16:00 EZ PPI YoY Feb -- 0.0% --
19:30 US Continuing Claims Mar-27 -- -- --
19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Apr-03 -- -- --
22:00 US Fed’s Bullard Discusses Economy and Monetary Policy
Fri/09-Apr-21 05:30 AU AiG Perf of Services Index Mar -- 55.8 --
08:30 AU RBA Financial Stability Review
08:30 CN CPI YoY Mar -- -0.2% --
08:30 CN PPI YoY Mar -- 1.7% --
12:45 CH Unemployment Rate Mar -- 3.6% --
12:45 CH Unemployment Rate SA Mar -- 3.6% --
13:00 DE Current Account Balance Feb -- 16.9b --
13:00 DE Exports SA MoM Feb -- 1.4% 1.5%
13:00 DE Imports SA MoM Feb -- -4.7% -4%
13:00 DE Industrial Production SA MoM Feb -- -2.5% --
13:00 DE Industrial Production WDA YoY Feb -- -3.9% --
13:00 DE Trade Balance Feb -- 14.3b 13.8b
13:30 AU Foreign Reserves Mar -- A$56.4b --
19:30 CA Full Time Employment Change Mar -- 88.2 --
19:30 CA Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY Mar -- 4.3% --
19:30 CA Net Change in Employment Mar -- 259.2k --
19:30 CA Participation Rate Mar -- 64.7% --
19:30 CA Unemployment Rate Mar -- 8.2% --
19:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Mar 0.2% 0.2% --
19:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Mar -- 2.5% --
19:30 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM Mar -- 0.2% -- 19:30 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY Mar -- 2.2% --
19:30 US PPI Final Demand MoM Mar 0.5% 0.5% --
19:30 US PPI Final Demand YoY Mar -- 2.8% --
Sat/10-Apr-21 00:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Apr-09 -- -- --
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06 April 2021
@researchvaf @rekhmen
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EUR/USD
Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US)
1.19228
RESISTANCE 1.18706
1.18411
SUPPORT
1.17594
1.17072
1.16777
SUGGESTION
BUY ---
SELL 1.1825
S/L 1.1875
T/P:
1.1755 1.1725
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Apr 05 1.17611 1.18183 1.17366 81,7 1.18117 60,3 1.17514
WEEKLY APRIL 2021
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1.18183 (05/Apr) 1.17366 (05/Apr) 1.18183 (05/Apr) 1.17115 (01/Apr) 1.23481 (06/Jan) 1.17029 (31/Mar)
All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform
USDJPY Interest Rate: 0.00%-0.25% (US)/-0.1% (JP)
111.389
RESISTANCE 111.063
110.600
SUPPORT
109.811
109.485
109.022
SUGGESTION
BUY 110.00
SELL ---
S/L 109.60
T/P:
110.65 111.00
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Apr 05 110.705 110.738 109.949 78,9 110.136 59,1 110.727
WEEKLY APRIL 2021
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
110.738 (05/Apr) 109.949 (05/Apr) 110.835 (01/Apr) 109.949 (05/Apr) 110.952 (31/Mar) 102.532 (06/Jan)
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06 April 2021
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GBP/USD Interest Rate: 0.10% (GB)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US) 1.40410
RESISTANCE 1.39767
1.39405
SUPPORT
1.38400
1.37757
1.37395
SUGGESTION
BUY ---
SELL 1.3925
S/L 1.3975
T/P:
1.3855 1.3925
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Apr 05 1.38224 1.39123 1.38118 100,5 1.39044 87,8 1.38166
WEEKLY APRIL 2021
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1.39123 (05/Apr) 1.38118 (05/Apr) 1.39123 (05/Apr) 1.37447 (01/Apr) 1.42403 (24/Feb) 1.34501 (11/Jan)
All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform
USD/CHF Interest Rate: 0.00%-0.25% (US)/ -1.25 to -0.25% (CH)
0.94986
RESISTANCE 0.94681
0.94137
SUPPORT
0.93288
0.93983
0.92439
SUGGESTION
BUY 0.9345
SELL ---
S/L 0.9295
T/P:
0.9415 0.9445
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Apr 05 0.94270 0.94377 0.93528 84,9 0.93592 68,7 0.94279
WEEKLY APRIL 2021
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
0.94377 (05/Apr) 0.93528 (05/Apr) 0.94716 (01/Apr) 0.93528 (05/Apr) 0.94716 (01/Apr) 0.87565 (06/Jan)
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06 April 2021
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AUD/USD Interest Rate: 0.10% (AU)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US)
0.77355
RESISTANCE 0.76974
0.76733
SUPPORT
0.76111
0.75730
0.75489
SUGGESTION
BUY 0.7645
SELL ---
S/L 0.7635
T/P:
0.7665 0.7675
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Apr 05 0.76100 0.76593 0.75971 62,2 0.76492 45,6 0.76036
WEEKLY APRIL 2021
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
0.76593 (05/Apr) 0.75971 (05/Apr) 0.76593 (05/Apr) 0.75309 (01/Apr) 0.80059 (25/Feb) 0.75309 (01/Apr)
All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform
NZD/USD Interest Rate: 0.25% (NZ)/ 0.00%-0.25% (US) 0.71316
RESISTANCE 0.71000
0.70779
SUPPORT
0.70242
0.69926
0.69705
SUGGESTION
BUY 0.7050
SELL ---
S/L 0.7040
T/P:
0.7070 0.7080
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Apr 05 0.70188 0.70684 0.70147 53,7 0.70559 41,5 0.70144
WEEKLY APRIL 2021
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
0.70684 (05/Apr) 0.70147 (05/Apr) 0.70684 (05/Apr) 0.69441 (01/Apr) 0.74634 (25/Feb) 0.69420 (25/Mar)
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06 April 2021
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USD/CAD Interest Rate: 0.00%-0.25% (US)/ 0.25% (CA) 1.26678
RESISTANCE 1.26306
1.25753
SUPPORT
1.24828
1.24456
1.23903
SUGGESTION
BUY ---
SELL 1.2530
S/L 1.2550
T/P:
1.2500 1.2480
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Apr 05 1.25692 1.25934 1.25009 92,5 1.25200 31,9 1.25519
WEEKLY APRIL 2021
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1.25934 (05/Apr) 1.25009 (05/Apr) 1.26010 (01/Apr) 1.25009 (05/Apr) 1.28801 (28/Jan) 1.23641 (18/Mar)
All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform
EURJPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP)
130.728
RESISTANCE 130.485
130.292
SUPPORT
129.861
129.623
129.430
SUGGESTION
BUY 130.05
SELL ---
S/L 129.75
T/P:
130.50 130.70
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Apr 05 130.211 130.248 129.817 43,1 130.098 3,0 130.128
WEEKLY APRIL 2021
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
130.248 (05/Apr) 129.817 (05/Apr) 130.252 (01/Apr) 129.631 (01/Apr) 130.644 (18/Mar) 125.070 (18/Jan)
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06 April 2021
@researchvaf @rekhmen
@researchvaf @rekhmen
GOLD (XAU/USD)
1746.25
RESISTANCE 1739.84
1734.00
SUPPORT
1721.75
1715.34
1709.50
SUGGESTION
BUY 1727.00
SELL ---
S/L 1724.00
T/P:
1731.00 1734.00
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Apr 05 1728.10 1733.43 1721.18 12.25 1728.17 1.47 1729.64
WEEKLY APRIL 2021
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1733.43 (05/Apr) 1721.18 (05/Apr) 1733.43 (05/Apr) 1705.65 (01/Apr) 1959.25 (06/Jan) 1676.73 (08/Mar)
All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform
SILVER – XAG/USD
25.550
RESISTANCE 25.304
25.079
SUPPORT
24.608
24.362
24.137
SUGGESTION
BUY 24.80
SELL ---
S/L 24.70
T/P:
25.00 25.10
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Apr 05 24.976 25.058 24.587 0.47 24.854 0.08 24.930
WEEKLY APRIL 2021
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
25.058 (05/Apr) 24.587(05/Apr) 25.058 (05/Apr) 24.229 (01/Apr) 30.062 (01/Feb) 23.753 (31/Mar)
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06 April 2021
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OIL WTI – CL-MAY/USD (Exp. 16 Apr 2021)
64.70
RESISTANCE 63.05
60.92
SUPPORT
57.14
55.49
53.36
SUGGESTION
BUY ---
SELL 59.00
S/L 59.50
T/P:
58.20 57.70
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS
Apr 05 61.21 61.40 57.62 3.78 58.79 2.47 61.26
WEEKLY APRIL 2021
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
61.40 (05/Apr) 57.62 (05/Apr) 61.73 (01/Apr) 57.62 (05/Apr) 67.96 (08/Mar) 47.17 (04/Jan)
All price & chart based on Valbury MT4 Platform
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06 April 2021
