A sample of recent products using the A sample of recent products using the methodology methodology (the more recent ones are available in webpage: (the more recent ones are available in webpage: www.cepal.un.org.mx, and in , and in www:eclac.cl,at the Subregional Headquarters subsite)www:eclac.cl,at the Subregional Headquarters subsite)

Hurricanes: Mitch in Central America (1998), Georges Hurricanes: Mitch in Central America (1998), Georges in Dominican Republic (1998), Keith in Belize (2000), in Dominican Republic (1998), Keith in Belize (2000), Iris and Marilyn in Anguilla and St. Marteen, etc.Iris and Marilyn in Anguilla and St. Marteen, etc.

Earthquakes: Mexico (1985), El Salvador (1986, Earthquakes: Mexico (1985), El Salvador (1986, 2001), Coffee Region in Colombia (1999), etc.2001), Coffee Region in Colombia (1999), etc.

Climatic Variability: Climatic Variability: Drought in Central America (2001)Drought in Central America (2001) El Niño Phenomenon(successive evaluation for the El Niño Phenomenon(successive evaluation for the

Andean Community and Central America, seventies Andean Community and Central America, seventies to present)to present)

Physical, climatic, structural vulnerability:Physical, climatic, structural vulnerability: Landslides in Venezuela (1999)Landslides in Venezuela (1999)

FUTURE DEVELOPMENTSFUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT (1)VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT (1) Subject of analysis: relation of size, development and Subject of analysis: relation of size, development and

vulnerability:vulnerability: ““resilience” (strengthening and preparedness) in the resilience” (strengthening and preparedness) in the

face of: face of: shocks (internal, environmental, climatic, external)shocks (internal, environmental, climatic, external) Dependency and diversificationDependency and diversification Integration and producitve/competitive linkagesIntegration and producitve/competitive linkages Analytical-mathematical formulationAnalytical-mathematical formulation

Global (transborder, regional) impact of disasterGlobal (transborder, regional) impact of disaster Economic, social, environmentalEconomic, social, environmental Effects on the donor/relief communityEffects on the donor/relief community Effects on private sector (transnational corporations, FDI, Effects on private sector (transnational corporations, FDI,

financial markets, etc.)financial markets, etc.)

FUTURE DEVELOPMENTSFUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT (2)VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT (2) Lessons from Mitch, droughts and earthquakes in 2001, Lessons from Mitch, droughts and earthquakes in 2001,

climatic variability and 30 years of disaster valuation: “revisit” climatic variability and 30 years of disaster valuation: “revisit” and appraise reconstruction processand appraise reconstruction process

Broadening methodology to social and environmental Broadening methodology to social and environmental valuationvaluation

Enhance current methodology with consideration of Enhance current methodology with consideration of prospective alternative scenarios and macroeconomic modelsprospective alternative scenarios and macroeconomic models

Train national authorities in the areas of economics and Train national authorities in the areas of economics and planningplanning

Promote mitigation and risk managements policies beyond Promote mitigation and risk managements policies beyond prevention and responseprevention and response

Internal policies:Internal policies:Include vulnerability reduction as an Include vulnerability reduction as an objective of development plans objective of development plans alongside goals of:alongside goals of:•Competitive growthCompetitive growth•Equitable developmentEquitable development•Sustainable and sustained Sustainable and sustained developmentdevelopment•Social participationSocial participation

External policies:External policies:Introduce risk Introduce risk management as part management as part of the regional of the regional international agenda, international agenda, alongsidealongside::•External competitive External competitive insertioninsertion•Benefitting from the Benefitting from the globalization processglobalization process•Inclusive regional Inclusive regional insertioninsertion

Sectoral components:Sectoral components:•Monitoring, analysis and climate Monitoring, analysis and climate forecasting, including forest firesforecasting, including forest fires•Contingency plans in key sectors, for Contingency plans in key sectors, for example:example:

•Agriculture, cattle raising, Agriculture, cattle raising, •rural poverty, rural poverty, •energy and baselinesenergy and baselines•Water and healthWater and health

•Interconnected systemsInterconnected systems•Regulation of basic services with Regulation of basic services with sponsorship of private enterprisesponsorship of private enterprise•Focalized plans for vulnerable groups, Focalized plans for vulnerable groups, including employment, food availability including employment, food availability and nutritionand nutrition•Education to reduce vulnerabilityEducation to reduce vulnerability•Diagnosis and monitoring of Diagnosis and monitoring of vulnerability at the local levelvulnerability at the local level

Proposed Proposed courses of actioncourses of action

Restore economic and Restore economic and social fabricsocial fabricRestore and strenghten Restore and strenghten productive linkages productive linkages (upstream/downstream) (upstream/downstream) Reduce internal / external Reduce internal / external vulnerabilityvulnerability

Disasters, conflict and crisis Disasters, conflict and crisis managementmanagement How to approach the different interventions required: How to approach the different interventions required:

conceptual aspects, definition problems and purpose of conceptual aspects, definition problems and purpose of the interventionsthe interventions

Are they different sides of the same coin: crisis Are they different sides of the same coin: crisis managements associated with disasters and / or conflict? managements associated with disasters and / or conflict? Conceptual quagmireConceptual quagmire

Methodological problems: needs assessments vs. Causal Methodological problems: needs assessments vs. Causal analysisanalysis

Operational problems: setting priorities and differentiating Operational problems: setting priorities and differentiating emergency from urgency: simultaneity and sequencingemergency from urgency: simultaneity and sequencing

Policy problems: positive vs. negative intervention; Policy problems: positive vs. negative intervention; resource allocation vs. policy change promotionresource allocation vs. policy change promotion

Comparative analysis of disasters and Comparative analysis of disasters and post-conflict situationspost-conflict situations

POST DISASTERS POST CONFLICT (CRISIS)Diagnosis Typology (an artificial distinction): Typology (an arbitrary distinction):

- origins /causes - “natural” - economic- extent o hydrometeoroligical

(climatic variability: cyclical, recurrent

- social

- duration o climatic (change: global change, greenhouse, etc.)

- political

- relative importance (to size, level, cycle (seasonal, economic, other) of the community / region / country affected

o geological-seismic, volcanic), geodynamics

(normally associated with wars, social / political upheaval)

- “anthropic” (chemical, industrial, etc.)- sudden (one-time event occurrence for a limited time-period)

May ensue or be aggravated by natural events

- slow (creeping, “building” such as drought and other slow-evolving climate variability), both limited or cyclical (ENSO) OR open-ended persistence (deforestation-drought, flooding and water level changes (as in the oceans)

There is an interaction of disasters and conflict and lead to dynamic evolution which is neither predictable nor linear (the phenomenon of hysteresis):

- a disaster may lead to crisis and conflict (of governability) and vulnerability (exposure to disasters) is a development issue- Conflict may lead to a disaster (by disabling response mechanisms, increasing vulnerability and exposure)

Comparative analysis of disasters and Comparative analysis of disasters and post-conflict situations (cont.)post-conflict situations (cont.)

POST DISASTERS POST CONFLICT (CRISIS)Type of effects and valuation Valuation : by sector, in terms of direct

(assets/capital losses) and indirect (flows affected) and overall impact (on economic-social-dynamics)

Not much different or unlike disaster situation.

- economic Requirements: Difference will be in the conflict or crisis events in the lack of preexisting institutional framework and governance conditions, although disasters may lead to loss or deterioration of these

- social - comparability (accepted recognized standards, homogeneity)

Requirements: distinction between

- infrastructure - reliability / credibility - emergency actions (to stop conflict, take crisis to an end) and

- institutional - distinction between “book value”, replacement and reconstruction costs

- institutional building (peace-nation building)

Account for cross-cutting issues such as differentiated gender impact, environmental impact and overall effects

In disaster institutional and governance conditions are (unless in very extreme severe cases) not destroyed.

Comparative analysis of disasters and Comparative analysis of disasters and post-conflict situations (cont.)post-conflict situations (cont.)

POST DISASTERS POST CONFLICT (CRISIS)Response to reconstruction needs, which should be “owned” by the victims and lead to mitigation, prevention and disaster reduction (in the continuum or cycle of prevention- reduced destruction-less costly reconstruction-proactive mitigation) both in terms

Respond to restoring non-conflict situation which allows for building social, human and economic capital: establishing a “normal” functioning society that sets goals, priorities and development paradigm in accordance with societal needs, culture and prior

Move from reactive to proactive interventions, leading to the local ownership of disasters’ mitigation and reduction.

Move from direct intervention to enabling and empowering local population to manage its own development process through consensus-building institutional and political commonly agreed.

As in post-conflict the development paradigm is at stake and may be subject to change. Foreign intervention is seen as supplementary to national / local / community / socially agreed strategy for reconstruction-mitigation

Foreign intervention is seen as crucial first phase in generating post conflict minimal consensus and functioning institutions and policy formulation processes.

Type of intervention

HANDBOOK FOR ESTIMATING HANDBOOK FOR ESTIMATING SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF DISASTERSEFFECTS OF DISASTERS

Coordination: Focal Point for the Coordination: Focal Point for the Evaluation of DisastersEvaluation of DisastersSubregional Headquarters in MexicoSubregional Headquarters in Mexicowww:eclac.cl/mexicowww:eclac.cl/mexico