Đánh Giá Tác Động Của Chính Sách Tỷ Giá Hối Đoái Lên Hoạt Động Xuất Nhập Khẩu

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TRNG I HC NGOI THNG----------

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h!" th#c hi$n:

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SBD06: Trn Ngc Bo

SBD50: V Th Hoi Thng

SBD51: V Th Th!"#$: %H &TT'()H&T)T 1*B

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16/26


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18/26


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TF fRi, c h ni c +ng Po rF cOP gi fLn hoR +ng ngoRi hng hi

W n! FPng Inh Ich cwc "n iLn chng P vng hP yc FCi {Pn hE eCn Fhn gizP U WhX- gi-nh$ WhX Nh$ WhX yc WiF Jo cn U WhX rx nLn

chO +ng hn rLn nhzng h rng F#i e hi W 1*-1 c h F f hi W

hnh cMng rong it hnh gi x ViE NPF

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19/26


67nh 8@: EiUn ng t gi ;888I;8-8V

TiQ$ c nhzng #c {n f} nF 1, JPng nF 2000, ngn hng nh n#c

ViE NPF en v! r| Fc iLn + vPo +ng yc $h$ rong Whong 1 ! nhiLn Qnhng @200d, vo nh hxng cOP c+c WhOng hong i chInh , nLn Winh Q ViE NPF

cng nh hxng, gi n rP niLF !Q Ri cc ngn hng hng FRi fMn x Fc rn

Qn hng @ nF 200d, ngn hng nh n#c {!Q nh ng iLn + giPo +ng yc

$h$ 1 fLn @, ! nhiLn, +ng hi n! cOP chInh $hO cng chu gi$ h rng

ngoRi E Ri cc ngn hng # cng hng Qn hng @ nF 200,hLF 1 fn nzP iLn +

vPo +ng fRi yc vit chunh ng hLF 2 fLn Fc 5 WF ho , gi |nh {n

fiLn ngn hng cng yc it chunh ng @,KV#i h! eng nhzng cPn hiE$ FRnh P! cOP ngn hng nh n#c cho $h$ cc

NHT chO +ng hn rong eiEc niLF !Q gi ! nhiLn fiLn c gi cOP cc ngn

hng hng FRi R Fc Wch rn e fiL$ iQ$ rong nF 200 e nF 2010, nh n#c

hR iLn + giPo +ng e ng gi fiLn ngn hng e hiEn nP!, iLn + vPo +ng yc

$h$ Png x Fc 1

"} gii cho it n!, ng!Ln nhn chInh f c cU hng U WhX cOP ViE

NPF FU cn Ci, hF fyng chQ iQn rong hng U WhX hU$ rong Whi fRi nh$ Whnhit hng hP iL vng F chP ch rng Qn eiEc nh$ WhX Jn U hng hP

rong n#c it n! fF cho nh$ JiL cOP ViE NPF ng cPo rong nF 200*-200d vn

Qn nh c et ngoRi E cho nh$ WhX cng hng ThLF eo , gii {!Q ngoRi E

r#c F cho nh$ WhX ~ng hi h ry voPnh nghiE$ U WhX nLn Ngn hng nh

n#c cho $h$ cc ngn hng Thng FRi cho voPnh ngiE$ eP! ng ngoRi E n fRi

cho ngn hng fU! VND h FP hng hP rong n#c nLn Whi cc WhQ #c eP! n!

Qn hRn r ny cng Ro Jc $ fLn h rng ngoRi E

5Tkng hy$ Ji Ngn hng ; %h : h$:PccoFen!giPchPrinvJ$

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20/26


%ng c 1 f} vo nzP cn $hi W Qn f rong Whi ngn hng nh n#c WiF Jo e

cPn hiE$ FRnh F eo h rng ngoRi E FP n rong cc ngn hng hng FRi h|

fRi h nki h rng w vo TF f} c cOP cc voPnh nghiE$ U WhX gF giz ngoRi

E rLn i Whon e cc c nhn h| Ich rz ngoRi E h rng w vo, it n! vn Qn

c Jw chLnh fEch ng W gizP gi niLF !Q Ri ngn hng hng FRi e gi ngoih rng w vo c hi iF fLn #i hng ngh|n iF

L.2. nh gi tc +ng%ng e#i eiEc w vo hP hng FRi, WiF ngRch hng hP rPo ki ng fLn cng f

fc chInh $hO cn hn rng hn rong chInh Jch {n f} gi ho h#ng WhMng chO

hc X! WiF ngRch U nh$ WhX F cn $hi F o cn ng cn cn hng FRi

Tkng hy$ ng JC fiE et gi hCi oi cOP ViE NPF e |nh h|nh U nh$

WhX giPi oRn 2001-2010:

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21/26


T! nhiLn, JP nF 2005, c iE f cCi nF 2006 e #c JPng nF 200*, WiF

ngRch nh$ Wh cOP ViE NPF ng nh! e it n! yc f} gii f vo Whi Fx cP

ntn Winh Q, hng nh$ WhX ~ R eo h rng ViE NPF rong Whi hng U WhX en

foP! hoP! chP |F Ro rP yc #c nh! ThF h cn cn hng FRi x Fc W fc

ng 15,K2 Jo e#i nF 2006 T|nh h|nh n! fF cho fyng vw rz ngoRi E cOP ViENPF giF J nghiLF rng

SPng nF 200, chInh $hO 2 fn it chunh gi fiLn ngn hng e Qn cCi nF

2010 ~ng VND giF gi fiLn c d@ nF 200 e *@ nF 2010

Nh|n eo JC fiE $hn nh et fE ng gi ~ng itn ViE NPF e#i Jw hP! ki

rong cn cn hng FRi c h ni + nhR! cOP nhzng hP! ki rong cn cn Ci e#i

hP! ki rong gi f rU hU$ NQ nh nF 200 Whi ~ng ViE NPF giF gi d@ h|

cn cn yc ci hiEn 2d* nhng e#i *@ giF gi rong nF 2010 h| cn cn chuyc ci hiEn 1 %hng P cng nhn hU! Jw c +ng WhMng hCng nhU cOP nhzng

hP! ki et gi fLn Jw hP! ki cOP WiF ngPch U nh$ WhX cng nh cn cn hng

FRi cng cho hU! nhzng hP! ki et gi cOP ngn hng nh n#c e h rng ngoRi

hCi rong hi giPn {P chP h ry yc cho WiF ngRch U nh$ WhX cng nh cn cn

hng FRi cOP ViE NPF

% h ni, giPi oRn 2000-2010 ntn Winh Q ViE NPF ni chng e chInh Jch

gi hCi oi ni riLng yc en +ng rong FMi rng w vo cRnh rPnh Nhzng hP! kicOP chInh Jch gi I nhit c +ng Qn hoR +ng U nh$ WhX e cn cn hng

FRi ! nhiLn, Fc c +ng n! chP ng ng e#i ePi r cOP chInh Jch gi rong

1 ntn Winh Q Fx %hInh Jch gi hCi oi x ViE NPF en chP yc it hnh nh

F+ cMng c i ry cho hoR +ng U nh$ WhX F F#i chu vng fRi x eiEc kn nh |nh

h|nh itn E

Trong hi giPn #i, cng e#i cc cMng c {n f} Whc, nh n#c J c nhzng iEn

$h$ ~ng + nhF hP! ki c cU U nh$ WhX, ng vw rz ngoRi E e chInh Jch

gi yc it hnh ho h#ng Ich cwc hn

III3 0qT :6 GIrI FH5F TsNG CNG T5C qNG T9CH CBC CJ T4 GI5H6I O5I LN HOT qNG DUET NHF HU CJ 7IKT NJ0

;3 GiYi ,h, bang tnh u b=

1.1 Mh/5ng &h& "c nh N iO# chPnh ty gi nh h#ng chInh Jch gi hCi oi x ViE NPF nhzng nF ki F#i f

{!Q nh gn ~ng ViE NPF e#i ~ng M fP fF cho gi r hwc cOP ~ng ViE

NPF Jo e#i cc ngoRi E hng !Ln iQn +ng ho Fi hng rF cOP ~ng M fP

20


22/26


it $hn no nh hxng Qn ngoRi hng ViE NPF e $ Fo ePi r cOP

gi rong eiEc hc X! hoR +ng U nh$ WhX cOP ViE NPF

&inh nghiEF cOP nhit n#c rLn hQ gi#i cng nh chInh hwc Q cOP ViE NPF

chng Finh rng {P r|nh ng rxng e $h rin Winh Q tn ezng rong it WiEn ntn

Winh Q e h rng i chInh m itn E Png ng! cng {Cc Q hP hiEn nP!, WhMng hWhMng nhn rP e n vng nhzng fyi Ich o f#n hng FRi e $hn cMng fPo +ng

{Cc Q q iLn cho Fc iL ng rxng tn ezng, ViE NPF $hi iQ$ c it chunh

chInh Jch gi hCi oi rLn c Jx Wh!Qn WhIch U WhX Cn e!, ViE NPF $hi

v! r| gi hCi oi JPo cho nhzng ngi U WhX c fi Whi n Jn $hXF rP h

rng hQ gi#i it c nghsP f Ngn hng Nh n#c $hi fMn it chunh gi hCi

oi vPnh nghsP $hn nh yc nhzng chLnh fEch gizP fE fRF $h rong n#c e hQ

gi#iViEc c f$ F+ gi hCi oi cOP ~ng ViE NPF c Inh chU cRnh rPnh hiEn

nP! f F+ it cn hiQ, hy$ f} nhF hc X! U WhX, hRn chQ Jw rn ng$ cOP

nhzng hng hP nh$ WhX r itn, Wh!Qn WhIch eiEc f$ WQ hoRch e WiF Jo i chInh

hy$ f} cho Fi Whon eP! n#c ngoi, JPo cho ng~n fwc ngoRi E {} hiQF e gi

n! yc J vng iQ WiEF hiE {

1.2 X%Q ng N hn thin th t4/Fng ng!i h:i 6 Dit 8amViE NPF hwc hiEn c chQ gi finh hoR e Jw cPn hiE$ cOP Ngn hng Nh

n#c ng ePi r hiQ !Q "iLn {Pn ch ch Qn eUn t n! f eiEc $h rin h

rng ngoRi hCi + h rng ngoRi hCi c Wh nng hPnh Whon cPo e hoR +ng c

hiE { J cho $h$ gi $ ng In hiE cOP h rng, giF hiQ cc rOi ro gi

V#i h rng ngoRi hCi, Fi voPnh nghiE$ t c Wh nng rx hnh F+ hnh

eiLn cOP h rng, rwc iQ$ hPF giP iQn hnh cc nghiE$ e FP n eP! Fyn ngoRi

E rLn h rng &hi , Fi voPnh nghiE$ Winh voPnh GN& J chO +ng $hCi hy$ e#i

cc ngn hng iQn hnh nhzng nghiE$ F o Pn on cho ng~n eCn ngoRi E cOP

F|nh e {P Ro it WiEn hc X! hoR +ng U nh$ WhX $h rin

Do e!, ! vwng hon chunh F+ h rng ngoRi hCi x ViE NPF WhMng nhzng f

!L c cOP $h rin F cn f F+ gii $h$ F cc c {Pn {n f} es FM cn {Pn

F

1.3. Kt h0& cc chnh sch tiOn t 'hc

Nh $hn Ich x rLn, eiEc WhPn hiQF ngoRi E rong hE hCng ngn hng WhMng

chu U $h Jw FU cn Ci rong hoR +ng U nh$ WhX F F+ $hn vo F f}

gF giz ngoRi E e Jw h nki h rng w vo nhzng it chunh et gi hCi oi

h Jw c hiE {, chInh $hO cn WQ hy$ ch ch cMng c gi hCi oi e#i nhzng

21


23/26


24/26


Do e!, rong Fi hng e cc voPnh nghiE$ Winh voPnh U nh$ WhX $hi c

iE {Pn F #i cc Wh nng iQn ng cOP gi hCi oi e nh hxng cOP n Qn

hoR +ng Winh voPnh cOP voPnh nghiE$ F|nh %h } #i cc it Whon hPnh on rong

hy$ ~ng ngoRi hng, cc voPnh nghiE$ Winh voPnh U nh$ WhX c h $hn no

rnh yc rOi ro vo iQn +ng cOP gi hCi oi F fRi

2.2 Cc chin */0c t -I hiVm ca cc anh nghi& 'inh anh "#$t nh&'h(#

rnh hiE hRi vo Jw iQn +ng cOP gi hCi oi cng nh c WQ hoRch F

o rRng hi ngoRi hCi cho cc Whon hPnh on cng nh h nh$ ng ngoRi E rong

ng fPi h| cc voPnh nghiE$ Winh voPnh U nh$ WhX c h J vng cc Jn $hXF,

vch e cOP ngn hng nh nghiE$ e FP n ngoRi E c W hRn hy$ ~ng orPrv,

J vng h rng itn E $hng chCng rOi ro, hy$ ~ng o$ion,

2.3 Cc giIi &h& t4ng S# t4nh sIn "#$t N ch#(n - ng#Hn hng ch anhnghi& "#$t 'h(#

T gi chInh hc ng ePi r nh f F+ h#c o |nh ng cho cc voPnh nghiE$

Winh voPnh U nh$ WhX xi Fi voPnh nghiE$ t $hi h#ng #i Fc iL:

T" gi ()*t -h.) x T" gi chnh thc x T" gi nh+, -h.)

%c voPnh nghiE$ chu c h c fi Whi h R yc Fc iL rLn V| e!, Fi

voPnh nghiE$ Winh voPnh U nh$ WhX $hi cC gng hR Ci hi gi U WhX cOPF|nh ng cch iQ WiEF chi $hI, fF giF gi hnh Jn U, ~ng hi nng cPo chU

fyng Jn $hXF R !L c {Cc Q c h nng gi n hng U WhX gn e#i Fc

gi {Cc Q F en Fx r+ng yc h rng

2.L AW ung S# &hYng V -Z [& 4i 4 h:i iV#i gii $h$ n!, voPnh nghiE$ WhMng cn c chiQn fyc $hng chCng rOi ro hCi

oi F iQn hnh Ro f$ { vw $hng ) n! yc h|nh hnh fyi nhn vo chLnh

fEch gi Whi gi iQn +ng hn fyi e vng $ f Whi gi iQn +ng U fyi

cho voPnh nghiE$

yT LUNT nF 1d6, Whi ViE NPF c nhzng ci cch Winh Q ho h#ng Fx Qn

nF 2010 Whi F ViE NPF chInh hc rx hnh hnh eiLn cOP T= yc 5 nF, ntn

Winh Q ViE NPF ni chng e |nh h|nh U nh$ WhX cOP ViE NPF ni riLng c nhit

#c ch!n iQn {Pn rng T gi hCi oi h hiEn ePi r f F+ rong nhzng cMng ccn hiQ ViE NPF hon hnh chu iL $h rin Winh Q rong ng giPi oRn c h

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