Data Assimilation Projects

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

December 4, 2017

Presented by Daryl Kleist National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Recent and Upcoming Upgrades to Global System

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• July 2017 – Largely infrastructure implementation (NEMS) – NSST – Lots of new data types (see backup slides)

• Winter 2017-2018 (using current model)

– Upgraded analysis system which reproduces current operations, with functionality for

• Upgrade to use GOES-16 winds (NESDIS changed format) • Upgrade to use NOAA-20 ATMS and CrIS (FSR data) • Data initially not turned on so reproduces operations

– When satisfied with data quality, minor operational change(s) to use the data

• Will probably be two changes – GOES-16 winds (Between Dec. 14 and Jan. 2) – NOAA-20 ATMS and CrIS (~March 1, 2018)

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Toward FV3-GDAS

FV3-GFS Beta (FY18) In progress

• Operational 4DEnVar System is the starting point with a few modifications – Higher ensemble and increment resolution (1/2 instead of ~1/3 of control) – Slightly different treatment of model error – Will incorporate GOES16 and NOAA20 upgrades (with some potential

modifications – Infrastructure and optimization (ensemble I/O, etc.) – Change of how cloud increment is passed back to model

• Accommodation to new MP scheme – Changes to ensemble component (solver, early v. late cycle)

• Candidate new capabilities

– Additional IASI moisture channels – ATMS Cloudy radiances – SNPP CrIS Full Spectral Resolution data – Florida Strait NSST temperature bias fix – Updated CO2 value – CRTM 3.4.0 – enhanced RT capabilities. – Update to head of GSI master (includes additional capabilities not exercised yet

and bug fixes) – ASCAT-B data and modified use of ASCAT-A data – 4DIAU

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C384 L64 With Cycled DA

Mean Z500 RMSE (Diff)

NH

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06-h Fits to Observations

Q3FY19 FV3 Implementation

• FV3 Beta changes, plus – Correlated observation errors for satellite radiances – Additional levels (80km top, 127 layers) – Improved cloud initialization (and all-sky assimilation) – Improved localization (scale dependence and multi-scale) – Use of lagged/shifted ensemble information

• From NGGPS/R2O external collaboration – SNPP Ozone profiles – COSMIC-2 GPS-RO data – GOES-16/Himawari Radiances – BUFR rather than TAC data stream – Other additional data possible – Enhanced Variational QC – Other advancements TBD

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Future

• Development actively underway for FV3 regional DA – Construction of proper interface to FV3 nest, tile, and stand-alone

grid is well underway – EMC involved on JTTI CAM ensemble DA projects

• R2O Funnel for FV3 regional DA when capability arrives – Efforts to test radial wind DA in global FV3 are beginning

• Results applicable to regional application

• Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) – Similar to (and borrowing from) ECMWF OOPS system – Longer term direction – but parts will be included as they are ready – Phase I

• Unified forward operators • Observational data base

– To be used for atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, aerosols, constituent gases, etc. and coupled systems 7

3D Rapid Update RTMA/URMA (Also referred to as RUA)

• Rapid Update 3D RTMA/URMA builds upon the 2D RTMA/URMA and RTMA-Rapid Update (15 min updates - implementation on Dec. 12 w/ v2.6)

• Funded joint, collaborative development between EMC and GSD! • Rapid updates (~15 minutes) and low latency • Extending to 3D allows for the creation of highly useful nowcasting product

– Full-column representation of meteorological fields (T, Q, Wind, hydrometeors) – 3D Radar DA, lightning DA, and cloud analysis – Creation of derived quantities (e.g. severe weather, aviation, etc. products) – Improved DA methods (leverage 3DEnVar via CAM ensemble – if available)

• Goals and objectives: – Improved skill in National Blend of Models (NBM) via 3D-URMA. – Improved 3-D situational awareness and decision support – Improved temporal resolution and consistency through rapid-updates – Use as the “best” analysis-of-record with reanalysis applications

8 FY2020: Initial implementation of 3D Rapid-Update RTMA/URMA

Final comments • All parts of a data assimilation system are important – all

aspects can be improved

• DA is fundamentally tied to the model. Transition to FV3 brings unique challenges and opportunities

• Our DA system is being redesigned based on JEDI concept – Allow the increased use of information from the

observations. – Exploration of future algorithm developments and

advancements

• Data handling, use of metadata, improved quality control and improved specification of observational errors in addition to development of better forward models for all observation types are essential to improve the extraction of information from observations 9

Backup Slides

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19 July 2017 GDAS Upgrade

– Implement CrIS full resolution data assimilation capability.

– Implement readiness for new Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-16), Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS-2) and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,

– Extend Regional Advanced Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) Retransmission Services (RARS) and Direct Broadcast Network (DBNet) capability.

– Upgrade land surface type specification in Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM).

– Assimilate Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) and implement log-normal wind quality control for AMVs.

– Assimilate Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite system (GOES) clear-air water vapor winds.

– Assimilate additional global navigation satellite system (GNSS) Radio Occultation (RO) observations.

– Assimilate Global Hawk dropsonde data when available.

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– Upgrade GDAS and Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to use nemsio binary files.

– Implement Near Sea-Surface Temperature (NSST) Analysis.

– Implement bug fix to cloud water increment in Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI).

– Upgrade land surface type specification in Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM).

– Update data monitoring for Megha-tropiques Sounder for Probing Vertical Profiles of Humidity (SAPHIR) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiances.

– Remove bogus Tropical Storm/Hurricane data for use in Data Assimilation.

– Upgrade data assimilation monitoring package.

– Update data monitoring for Megha-tropiques Sounder for Probing Vertical Profiles of Humidity (SAPHIR) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiances.

STRATEGY 1. Collective path toward National Unified Next-Generation Data Assimilation 2. Modular, Object-Oriented code for flexibility, robustness and optimization 3. Mutualize model-agnostic components across

• Applications (atmosphere, ocean, land, aerosols, etc.) • Models & Grids (regional/global, FV3) • Observations (past, current and future)

OBJECTIVES 1. Facilitate innovation to address next scientific grand challenges 2. Increase R2O transition rate 3. Increase science productivity and code performance

Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI)

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JEDI Abstract Design

Abstract Layer Generic Applications

Abstract building blocks

Systems

Forecast DA FSOI

State Observations Covariance Model

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FV3 + GSI Lorenz MOM6

Uses

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Implements

Abstract interfaces are the most important aspect of the design