Data challenges in Trans-boundary River Basins: Case Study ... · Issues/Problems Asian temperature rise is greater than world’s average temperature rise (IPCC 2013) According to

Asif Khan ([email protected])

Asif Khan

Lead Author (Water chapter- AR6 IPCC)

Post Doctorate (Water-Energy-Food-Climate Change, IIASA, Austria)

PhD (Water and Climate Change, Cambridge University, UK)

Data challenges in Trans-boundary River Basins: Case Study of

the Upper Indus Basin


Academics: PhD in Water and Climate

PGS in GIS and RS

EMBA Project Management

B.Sc Civil Engineering


Work Experience:

NESPAK (Site cum Design Engineer)

Irrigation and Hydle Department , Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (SDO)

FATA Secretariat (Deputy Director Technical)

Asian Development Bank (Hydraulic Design Engineer and Climate Change Expert)

IIASA, Austria (Research Associate)

UET, Peshawar (Assistant Professor)

University of Cambridge (Graduate Supervisor)

LUMS, WIT, Lahore (Research Director)


Current/Past Research:


Outline

o Global Problems

o Potential and problems related to the Indus Basin

o Case study of the Upper Indus Basin

o Hydrological modelling improvement needs

o Conclusions and Recommendations

o Questions and Answers


Global challengeso Population growth

o Global warming and climate change

Increased population will need more: i) water supply, ii) food production, iii) energy

production/supply, iv) flood and drought mitigation, v) urbanization, and

v) industrial development

Source: UN: facts and trends (2006)


Global challengeso Population growth

o Global warming and climate change

Global mean surface temperature increased by 0.74 +/- 0.18 °C during 1906-2005, while

projected expected increase is 1.4 to 5.8 °C during 1990 to 2100 (IPCC 2007, 2013)

Source: (Inman 2010)

Global warming is causing glacier retreat,

Severity in floods and droughts,

Increasing water scarcity,

Increasing slope instability and landslides,

Increasing Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)

Reservoir sedimentation,

Forest fires, and

Increasing water losses/evapotranspiration

Adverse impact on Eco-system


The Indus Basin


The Indus Basin

The Indus Basin

originates from

the Hindukush-

Karakoram-

Himalaya and

Tibetan Plateau

(HKH-TP) region,

and runs from the

north to south.


The Indus Basin

The Indus Basin Irrigation

System (IBIS) is one of the

largest in the world

Fulfills ~ 90% of the

irrigation needs

Cater for > 33% of energy

needs (mostly in Pakistan)

More than 56-70% of

Pakistan and India’s

population is dependent on

agriculture

Agriculture contribute ~24%

in annual GDP of Pakistan


Snow- and Glacier-melt runoff modelling


Water: water scarcity


Hydro-power potential in the Indus Basin

The potential hydropower in the Indus Basin (within Pakistan) is 60,158 MW.

The potential hydropower in the Indus Basin (within India) is about 50% compared to

Pakistan, although India’s current installed capacity is more than Pakistan

Of the available potential, only 6,750 MW is installed, ~1,735 is under construction, while

19,353 MW is under planning in Pakistan


Hydro-power potential in the Indus Basin

More than 22 hydro-power projects are planned/under-construction in the UIB (PPIB, 2011)


Issues/Problems

Asian temperature rise is greater than world’s average temperature rise (IPCC 2013)

According to CMIP 5, under the RCP 4.5, the expected temperature rise is about 2oC

(relative to 1961-1990) in the whole HKH during 2021-2050,

The HKH-TP region has a glacier area of about 33,000 km2 (ICIMOD, 2009) and

contains about 12,000 km3 of freshwater (IPCC, 2013)

Glaciers in the western Himalayas, Hindukush, and eastern Karakoram are losing

mass at a high rate (Kaab et al., 2012, 2015, Gardelle et al., 2012, 2013)

Glaciers in the western Karakoram are advancing and bear slightly negative mass

balance during the last decade (Kaab et al., 2012, 2015; Gardelle et al., 2012, 2013)

Monsoon precipitation became more intense and frequent in the last four decades,

and is responsible for floods in the region (Wang et al., 2011)


Issues/Problems Snow- and glacier-melt contributes more than 80% in stream flows in various sub-

basins of the Indus Basin

Any change in temperature or snow-fall or

snow-/glacier-melt will cause significant

ramification on downstream water

resources

Land sliding and floods may affect existing

and ongoing projects, such as Pak-China

economic corridor

Historic civilization in the northern Indus

basin is under threat due to floods, and

proposed reservoirs

There are more than 1800 glacial lakes, of

which >50 are potentially dangerous

(Campbell, 2005)


Issues/Problems: Sedimentation

Sedimentation at Tarbela Dam (Ali and Deboer, 2007)

Tarbela Dam lost ~31% of storage capacity during 1978-2015,

Mangla Dam lost ~ 18% (1967-2009),

Chashma barrage lost 51% during 1971-2009

Sedimentation will rise with increase in snow and glacier melt


Hydrological Modelling Constraints

in the Upper Indus Basin


Constraints: variability in modelled flows


Constraints: variability in flow components

Hunza basin (Karakoram)

Astore basin (Himalayas)


Constraints: potential causes

Use of different hydrological models

Use of different time period data

Use of different input datasets

Basin Boundaries

Precipitation Datasets

Snow-cover Datasets

Glacier-cover Datasets

Snow and ice-melt parameters

Calibration Parameters


Use of biased basin boundaries:

UIB1 is ~172,173 km2.

UIB2 is ~205,000 km2

UIB2 is ~266,000 km2

UIB 2 and 3 are

biased overestimated

boundaries

Most hydrological modelling studies have used overestimated basin boundaries

(UIB 2 & 3) for the UIB.


Station

Elevation in the

original SRTM

DEM (m)

Critical Point 1a 4,253

Critical Point 1b 4,248

Critical Point 1c 4,275

Critical Point 1d 4,270

Pangong Lake

Water level

4,241

(For details see: Khan et al., 2014)

Beach Ridges (4,265m) are an evidence of Pangong Tso lake to be remained part of the UIB about 1,000

years ago, and current warming climate and melt-increment induces increment of water-surface level at a rate

of about 0.75-1 m per decade (Song et al., 2013; Khan et al., 2014)

Main cause of inaccurate basin delineation


Uncertainty in estimated basin areas


Potential Causes: use of different precipitation datasets


Climate stations density in gridded precipitation datasets

Climatic stations density in

APHRODITE data based on

number of stations in 0.05o grid


CRU TS 3.1 data based on



Precipitation datasets accuracy assessment


Precipitation datasets accuracy assessment


ISI-MIP precipitation and modelled flow


Uncertainty in existing studies


Snowmelt runoff modelling


Use of biased melt rates:

Clean ice varies

between 30-35% of

total glacier area in

various basins

Available hydrological

modelling studies

adopted uniform ice

melt rates for the

entire glacier areas

In addition whole of

debris cover has been

assumed to be thick

*means seasonal, perennial snow and snow-covered ice






Climate stations density in gridded precipitation datasets


APHRODITE data based on



CRU TS 3.1 data based on



Modelled monthly flows (ISI-MIP)


Use of underestimated snow-cover:

MODIS snow cover

data cannot

capture debris-

covered ice


Use of underestimated snow-cover:

MODIS snow cover

data cannot capture

small glaciers


Use of overestimated glacier areas:


Use of overestimated glacier areas:


ISI-MIP water scarcity


FAO water scarcity



ImplicationsIll informed modelling and planning

Reshun HPS

Chitral


Conclusions and Recommendations

Input hydro-climate datasets are partly biased due to non-availability, non-

accessibility and non-sharing of trans-boundary hydro-climate datasets

Almost all available hydrological modelling studies have encountered

significant biases due to use of overestimated basin areas, underestimated

precipitation, underestimated snow area, overestimated glacier areas, use of

biased melt rates, and other biased calibration parameters;

There is need of precise and accurate hydro-climatic modelling, and

identification of best available datasets and techniques suitable for the UIB;

Use of improved hydro-climate modelling is need of the time


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Data challenges in Trans-boundary River Basins: Case Study ... · Issues/Problems Asian temperature rise is greater than world’s average temperature rise (IPCC 2013) According to