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Common Model Dependent Variable: UKAR Method: Least Squares Date: 06/10/15 Time: 14:38 Sample: 1982 2011 Included observations: 30 Variable Coefficien t Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -2164.168 1479.362 -1.462906 0.1555 INF -168.0484 66.46132 -2.528514 0.0179 KURS 1.251162 0.359702 3.478334 0.0018 Y 0.009418 0.000155 60.76497 0.0000 R-squared 0.997714 Mean dependent var 72269.33 Adjusted R-squared 0.997450 S.D. dependent var 86846.83 S.E. of regression 4385.801 Akaike info criterion 19.73370 Sum squared resid 5.00E+08 Schwarz criterion 19.92052 Log likelihood -292.0055 Hannan-Quinn criter. 19.79347 F-statistic 3781.749 Durbin-Watson stat 1.597595 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 Regression Result: UKAR= -2197.84 – 167.16 INF + 1.26 KURS + 0.09 Y + E LOG Date: 06/10/15 Time: 14:22 Sample: 1982 2011 Included observations: 30 Variable Coefficien t Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -5.598978 0.140944 -39.72482 0.0000 INF -0.003140 0.001003 -3.130789 0.0043 LKURS 0.235858 0.046356 5.087937 0.0000 LY 0.931527 0.029841 31.21589 0.0000 R-squared 0.998299 Mean dependent var 10.28983 Adjusted R-squared 0.998103 S.D. dependent var 1.497399 S.E. of regression 0.065216 Akaike info criterion -2.498654 Sum squared resid 0.110582 Schwarz criterion -2.311828 Log likelihood 41.47981 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.438887 F-statistic 5087.479 Durbin-Watson stat 1.451475 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 PAM Method: Least Squares Date: 06/10/15 Time: 14:41 Sample (adjusted): 1983 2011 Included observations: 29 after adjustments Variable Coefficien t Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -3.733265 0.939488 -3.973724 0.0006 INF -0.001396 0.001316 -1.060426 0.2995 LKURS 0.178388 0.058134 3.068586 0.0053 LY 0.614291 0.153765 3.994994 0.0005 LUKAR(-1) 0.330508 0.161387 2.047925 0.0517 R-squared 0.998529 Mean dependent var 10.36933 Adjusted R-squared 0.998284 S.D. dependent var 1.458036 S.E. of regression 0.060404 Akaike info criterion -2.619942 Sum squared resid 0.087567 Schwarz criterion -2.384201 Log likelihood 42.98915 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.546111 F-statistic 4072.543 Durbin-Watson stat 1.506485 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

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Common ModelDependent Variable: UKAR

Method: Least Squares

Date: 06/10/15 Time: 14:38

Sample: 1982 2011

Included observations: 30

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

C-2164.1681479.362-1.4629060.1555

INF-168.048466.46132-2.5285140.0179

KURS1.2511620.3597023.4783340.0018

Y0.0094180.00015560.764970.0000

R-squared0.997714Mean dependent var72269.33

Adjusted R-squared0.997450S.D. dependent var86846.83

S.E. of regression4385.801Akaike info criterion19.73370

Sum squared resid5.00E+08Schwarz criterion19.92052

Log likelihood-292.0055Hannan-Quinn criter.19.79347

F-statistic3781.749Durbin-Watson stat1.597595

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000

Regression Result: UKAR= -2197.84 167.16 INF + 1.26 KURS + 0.09 Y + E

LOGDate: 06/10/15 Time: 14:22

Sample: 1982 2011

Included observations: 30

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

C-5.5989780.140944-39.724820.0000

INF-0.0031400.001003-3.1307890.0043

LKURS0.2358580.0463565.0879370.0000

LY0.9315270.02984131.215890.0000

R-squared0.998299Mean dependent var10.28983

Adjusted R-squared0.998103S.D. dependent var1.497399

S.E. of regression0.065216Akaike info criterion-2.498654

Sum squared resid0.110582Schwarz criterion-2.311828

Log likelihood41.47981Hannan-Quinn criter.-2.438887

F-statistic5087.479Durbin-Watson stat1.451475

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000

PAMMethod: Least Squares

Date: 06/10/15 Time: 14:41

Sample (adjusted): 1983 2011

Included observations: 29 after adjustments

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

C-3.7332650.939488-3.9737240.0006

INF-0.0013960.001316-1.0604260.2995

LKURS0.1783880.0581343.0685860.0053

LY0.6142910.1537653.9949940.0005

LUKAR(-1)0.3305080.1613872.0479250.0517

R-squared0.998529Mean dependent var10.36933

Adjusted R-squared0.998284S.D. dependent var1.458036

S.E. of regression0.060404Akaike info criterion-2.619942

Sum squared resid0.087567Schwarz criterion-2.384201

Log likelihood42.98915Hannan-Quinn criter.-2.546111

F-statistic4072.543Durbin-Watson stat1.506485

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000

VariablesCommon ModelModel_LOGModel_Log PAM

Constanta-2164.16(-2164.16)

INFInlfation rate-168.048**(66.46)

KURSExchange Rate1.251***(0.35)

YNational Income

Adj R2

F Stat

Prob

*10% significance, **5% significance, ***1% significance