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David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scale on a global scale This presentation is intended for professional advisers only and must not be relied upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly.

David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

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Page 1: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec

Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale

This presentation is intended for professional advisers only and must not be relied upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly.

Page 2: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

AXA WF Global Inflation BondsPerformance

9%

10%AXA WF Global Inflations Bonds I EURMorningstar - Global Inflation-Linked Bond EUR hedged

6 33%

7.52%

7%

8%

9%

1st Quartile

1st Quartile

2nd Quartile6.33% 6.21%

5.93% 6.10%

5.31%

5%

6%

2 12% 2 17%3%

4%

3rd Quartile2.12% 2.17%

1%

2%

0%YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

1st or 2nd quartile performance over multiple cycles

168902

Source: AXA IM / Morningstar as at 30/04/2013. Performance is given for the I Acc EUR shareclass net of fees, annualised over 1 year, calculated using offer/close prices. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurances can be made that profits will be achieved or that substantial losses will not be incurred.

q p p y

Page 3: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

AXA WF Global Inflation BondsPortfolio Overview

Fund size €2 6bn

Key characteristicsAverage rating AA+Fund size €2.6bn

Average maturity 12.47 years

Yield before Indexation -0.70%

Duration 11 31 years

Average rating AA+

Average coupon 1.41%

Cash 1.23%

Number of holdings 79Duration 11.31 years

Duration (Redex) 1.53 years

50%AXA WF Global Inflation bonds Barclays World Inflation All Maturities

Number of holdings 79

30%

40%

10%

20%

0%US UK France Germany Italy Canada Australia Sweden Japan

5 year annualised performance is 6.21%

168903

Source: AXA IM as at 30/04/2013. Data is unaudited and sourced from our front office portfolio management system. Please note that the yield calculations are based on the portfolio of assets and may NOT be representative of what clients invested in the fund may receive as a distribution yield. Yield figures quoted will vary in the future and are not guaranteed. Performance is presented net of fees for the I Acc EUR shareclass and calculated using offer/close prices. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurances can be made that profits will be achieved or thatsubstantial losses will not be incurred. The fund does not have a reference index; Barclays Capital World Inflation Linked Bonds TR Hedged index, is given as a basis for comparison only.

y p

Page 4: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

An historical look at inflationInflation and debt always come in pairs

Consumer price inflation, y/y%, 11-yr MA15 UK US

10 Napoleonic wars: deficit monetised

Fiscal monetisation during WWI

Fiscal monetisation during WWII

Volcker clamps down onUS War of

5

g on inflationUS Civil War

Independence

0

Fiscal monetisation

-10

-5

1st Industrial Revolution: productivity-led deflation

2nd Industrial Revolution: productivity rebound; gold finds

during Vietnam War; oil shocks

Great Depression

Throughout history, large amounts of debt have been followed by inflation pressures

101750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

16890

Source: AXA IM / Deutsche Bank as at 31/12/2010.

large amounts of debt have been followed by inflation pressures

4

Page 5: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

Inflation vs deflation debateWhat are the factors driving the sentiment?

Inflationary Deflationary

Currency depreciation Low growth

VAT hikes Weak demand, output gap, p g p

Globalisation Oil/energy weakness

Emerging countries growth High unemployment levelEmerging countries growth High unemployment level

Increase in Inflation expectations Yield increase

Central Banks’ action QE tapering

168905

Page 6: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

How do inflation-linked bonds work?

Fisher equation: (1+NY)=(1+RY)*(1+Inflation Expectations)*(1+Risk Premium)Approximately BE=NY-RY

Risk PremiumB k

N i l

Inflation Expectations

Breakeven Inflation

Nominal Yield

Real Yield Real YieldReal Yield Real Yield

Represents the average rate of inflation expected over the life of the bond

168906

Page 7: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

US & UK Inflation Markets

Real Yields BreakevensUS TIPS Spot vs M-3

UKTI Spot vs M-3

UKTI Spot vs M-3

US TIPS Spot vs M-3

Pension funds keep real rates low in the UK

TIPS l i ld i th b k f F d “t i ” l ti TIPS real yields risen on the back of Fed “tapering” speculation

Breakevens under pressure as a result of lower commodities prices

16890

Source: AXA IM / Barclays Capital as at 24/05/2013.

7

Page 8: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

Euro Area

Real Yields Breakevens

F S tF S t MM 33

Italy Spot vsItaly Spot vs MM--33

France Spot vs France Spot vs MM--33

France Spot vsFrance Spot vs MM 33

Italy Spot vsItaly Spot vs MM--33

France Spot vs France Spot vs MM--33

Cheaper commodities and low inflation releases are impacting Euro markets

L i ld i ti l h b d d t d Longer yields, in particular, have been on a downward trend

Breakevens also weakening

16890

Source: AXA IM / Barclays Capital as at 15/05/2013.

8

Page 9: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

Emerging Markets Inflation-Linked Bonds

Real Yields Breakevens

IsraelIsrael

TurkeyTurkeySouth AfricaSouth Africa

MexicoMexico

MexicoMexicoIsraelIsrael

TurkeyTurkey

South AfricaSouth Africa

IsraelIsrael

MexicoMexicoSouth AfricaSouth Africa

Currency war talks are back on the menu following the Bank of Japan aggressive actions

EM C t l B k h t t l di t f ll i l i ld EM Central Banks have cut rates, leading to falls in real yields

Rating outlooks diverge with Turkey now Investment Grade and Israel downgraded

16890

Source: AXA IM / Barclays Capital as at 15/05/2013.

9

Page 10: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

Inflation forecastsInflation expectations have been depressed by falling commodity prices

5

6 100

3

3,5Market and survey based inflation expectations diverge US Core inflation should remain in the comfort zone

3

4

60

80

2

2,5

3

0

1

2

40

1

1,5

-2

-1

0May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

US 10Y BE0

20

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

0,5

-3US : Univ of Michigan Consumer Survey 5-10Y Ahead Inflation ExpectationsUS : Headline Inflation

o-99 o-00 o-01 o-02 o-03 o-04 o-05 o-06 o-07 o-08 o-09 o-10 o-11 o-12

USA : ISM Services Prices Paid USA : Core Inflation (RS)

Inflation forecasts have been falling consistently with lower commodity prices Meanwhile, inflation expectations from surveys remain stable at long term equilibrium / target

levels However, over the next 12 months we see very little risk to core inflation which is the most

relevant inflation metric

16890

relevant inflation metric. Source: AXA IM / Bloomberg as at 15/05/2013.

10

Page 11: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

Looking for value?

UK

4

Central Banks inflation targets are moving up, still BEs trade below average inflation levels

USA3

3

3,5

2,52,5

3

10Y Average RPI

UK 10Y BE

2

2May-03 May-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13

€ Area2,5

1,5Aug-05 Aug-07 Aug-09 Aug-11

US 10Y BEUS 10Y Average CPI

2

Falling commodity prices have pushed inflation expectations below past averages.1

1,5

7Y Average € Area HICPx Bund€i 10Y BE

16890

inflation expectations below past averages.Source : AXA IM / Bloomberg as at 15/05/2013.

Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13

11

Page 12: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

The markets have a low forecasting power for inflation

7

The current level of inflation b k f t t

TUR

SAF BRA

5

6 breakeven from country to country is highly correlated to the current year inflation forecastke

ven

MEX

4 As we focus on 10 year breakevens, this suggests that their forecasting powerfla

tion

Bre

ak

AUS

GER

UK

USA THASKO

POL

ISR

MEX

COLCHI

2

3 that their forecasting power is rather limited

Another conclusion should nt 1

0 Ye

ar In

f

JAP

CANSWEITA

FRA

GER POL

1

be that short term inflation moves are a significant driver of markets’ inflation expectations

Cur

ren

- - 2 4 6 8

p

IMF 2013 Inflation Forecast

1689012

Source : AXA IM / Bloomberg as at 15/05/2013. Yield figures quoted will vary in the future and are not guaranteed.

Page 13: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

Growing economies still offer positive real yields

Real interest rates and sovereign Real interest rates and sovereign debt appears to be well correlated

In some countries, like the UK & the USA l i t t t td USA, real interest rates appear to be fundamentally “too low”

– This is most likely the consequence of Quantitative Easing programmesea

r Rea

l Yie

ld

g p g

In Emerging Markets space countries that are less accessible to foreigners or with higher taxes haveur

rent

10

Ye

%

foreigners or with higher taxes have higher interest rates

C

IMF 2016 Debt / GDP Forecast

1689013

Source : AXA IM / Bloomberg / IMF as at 15/05/2013. Yield figures quoted will vary in the future and are not guaranteed.

Page 14: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

India issuing an inflation-linked bond today

1994

Inflation-linked bonds is a $ 2.3Trn market of which more than $ 500Bn are outside AXA WF Global Inflation Bonds investment universe

1991 19812006

1994

1964

2012

1991

19971998

1981

20042004

2004

1964

2007

2011

2004

20071996

1955 2013

1984

1964

1967

2002

Developed Countries

Emerging Countries

1984

1966 20021995

20022002

1689014

Source: AXA IM / Barclays as at 31/12/2012.

Page 15: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

Taking advantage of our Inflation-linked bonds offering

Long term exposure to real yields & realised inflation

Long term exposure to real yields & realised inflation

Exposure on real yields & inflation breakevensExposure on real yields & inflation breakevens

Tactical exposure on inflation expectationsTactical exposure on inflation expectations

GlobalGlobal European / UKEuropean / UK UniversalUniversal REDEXREDEX

Opportunity to protect Attractive for investors Optimised GDP weighting, Share class designed to pp y pthe fixed income part of an asset allocation

wanting single currency exposure.

p g g,blending Emerging and

Developed Markets. Designed to perform in a

low rates environment

greduce exposure to

duration. Consider mixing with standard share class to build desired durationlow rates environment to build desired duration

AXA WF Euro AXA WF Global InflationAXA WF Global Inflation Bonds

AXA WF Euro Inflation Bonds AXA WF Universal

Inflation Bonds

AXA WF Global Inflation Bonds REDEX

AXA WF Euro Inflation Bonds REDEX

AXA Sterling Index Linked Bond Fund

Investors can take advantage of our diversified offering by mixing our available funds & share classesto achieve their desired positioning.

REDEX & Universal are two different approaches as yields HAVE to rise for REDEX to perform

1689015

REDEX & Universal are two different approaches as yields HAVE to rise for REDEX to perform.AXA WF Euro Inflation Bonds is not registered for retail distribution in the UK.

Page 16: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

AXA WF Universal Inflation BondsPortfolio Overview

F d i $160 A ti AA

Key Characteristics

Fund size $160m

Average maturity 5.15 years

Real yield -0 47

Average rating AA

Average coupon 2.10%

Cash 0 6%Real yield 0.47

Duration 4.81 years

Cash 0.6%

Number of holdings 72

Fund breakdown by country Contribution to duration by country

%

Performance since inception 7 15%

16890

Performance since inception 7.15%Source: AXA IM as at 30/04/2013. Data is unaudited and sourced from our front office portfolio management system. Please note that the yield calculations are based on the portfolio of assets and may NOT be representative of what clients invested in the fund may receive as a distribution yield. Yield figures quoted will vary in the future and are not guaranteed. Performance is presented nets of fees for the I Acc USD shareclass since its launch in July 2012,and is calculated using offer/close prices. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurances can be made that profits will be achieved or that substantial losses will not be incurred.

Page 17: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

Our inflation-linked credentials

Three dedicated inflation specialists, based in London & Paris, with over 25 years Team p , , yexperience as a firm managing inflation-linked assets

£20 5bn in inflation linked assets under management globally; significant size ensures “Tier

Team

£20.5bn in inflation-linked assets under management globally; significant size ensures Tier 1” status with counterparties and access to policy makers & official market participants

Diverse client base across all marketScale

A long and successful track record

1st quartile performance 3 & 5 years for our flagship AXA WF Global Inflation Bonds*Performance

Market leaders in terms of inflation-linked product development, with the creation and launch of the “Redex” share class in 2010, which lowers exposure to the risk of nominal interest rate changes and the launch of AXA WF Universal Inflation Bonds in 2012

Innovationinterest rate changes and the launch of AXA WF Universal Inflation Bonds in 2012

We are a major player in the inflation-linked market

1689017

Source: AXA IM / Morningstar at 30/04/2013. *Morningstar Global Inflation-Linked Bonds - EUR hedged offshore universe as at 30/04/2013. Past performance is not a guide to future returns.

j p y

Page 18: David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation ....…David Dyer & Marion le Morhedec Exploiting inflation opportunities on a global scaleon a global scale This presentation

Disclaimer

This presentation is intended for Professional Advisers only and should not be relied upon by retail clients. Circulation must be restricted accordingly. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part, is prohibited.

This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or buy any units in the Fund(s) Information relating to investments may have been based on research and analysis undertaken or procured byThis presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or buy any units in the Fund(s). Information relating to investments may have been based on research and analysis undertaken or procured by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited for its own purposes and may have been made available to other expertises within the AXA Investment Managers group of companies who in turn may have acted upon it. Whilst every care is taken over these comments, no responsibility is accepted for errors omissions that may be contained therein. It is therefore not to be taken as a recommendation to enter into any investment transactions. Information in this document may be updated from time to time and may vary from previous or future published versions of the document.

This presentation should not be regarded as an offer, solicitation, invitation or recommendation to subscribe for any AXA IM investment service or product and is being provided for informational purposes only. The views expressed do not constitute investment advice and do not necessarily represent the views of any company within the AXA Investment Managers Group and may be subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in exchange rates will affect the value of investments made overseas. Fixed income securities are subject to interest rate risk, credit risk, prepayment risk and market risk. High yield securities are subject to a greater risk of loss of principal and interests than higher-rated, investment grade fixed income securities. Investments in newer markets and smaller companies offer the possibility of higher returns but may also involve a higher degree of risk. An initial charge is usually made when you purchase units. Investors in offshore vehicles advised or sub-advised in whole or in part byhigher returns but may also involve a higher degree of risk. An initial charge is usually made when you purchase units. Investors in offshore vehicles advised or sub advised in whole or in part by AXA Investment Managers Group employing the investment strategy described herein may be subject to currencies exchange risk. There is no guarantee that the objectives of the investment strategy described herein will be achieved. Your investment should be for the medium to long term i.e. typically 5-10 years.

AXA WF Universal Inflation Bonds, AXA WF Global Inflation Bonds and AXA WF Euro Inflation Bonds are sub-funds of AXA World Funds, which is a SICAV fund registered for public distribution in Luxembourg. All of these sub-funds are recognized by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and are available for sale to the public in the UK. The AXA WF Euro Inflation Bonds is a sub-fund of AXA World Funds, a SICAV fund domiciled in Luxembourg. However, this sub-fund is not recognised by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is therefore not able to be marketed to retail investors in the UK A SICAV is a type of open ended investment fund in which the amount of capital in the fund varies according to the number of investors similar to a UK ICVC SICAV funds are some of thethe UK. A SICAV is a type of open-ended investment fund in which the amount of capital in the fund varies according to the number of investors, similar to a UK ICVC. SICAV funds are some of the most common investment vehicles in Europe. There may be tax implications for a UK investor investing in the Fund and tax advice should be obtained before an investment is made.

Before investing, you should read the prospectus, which includes investment risks relating to these funds. The information contained herein is not a substitute for independent advice.

AXA Fixed Income is an expertise of AXA Investment Managers UK Limited. Issued by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK Registered in England and Wales No: 01431068 Registered Office: 7 Newgate Street London EC1A 7NX Telephone calls may be recorded for quality assurance purposes 16890in the UK. Registered in England and Wales No: 01431068. Registered Office: 7 Newgate Street, London EC1A 7NX. Telephone calls may be recorded for quality assurance purposes. 16890 06/2013

1689018