Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Natural Gas Outlook. Source: NGSA. Briefing Before the Louisiana Public Service Commission Business and Executive Meeting February 19, 2003. David E. Dismukes Center for Energy Studies Louisiana State University. Center for Energy Studies. Exhibit 1: Marketed Production of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
David E. DismukesCenter for Energy StudiesLouisiana State University
Natural Gas OutlookBriefing Before the Louisiana Public Service Commission Business and Executive Meeting
February 19, 2003
Source: NGSA
5,360
1,5031,689 1,615
1,364
696
357480 471
336
3,747
165
1,160
420
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
TX LA NM OK WY CO AL KS AK CA
(Ten Largest Producing States)
(Bc
f)
State (both on- andoffshore)
Federal (offshore)
Exhibit 1: Marketed Production ofNatural Gas, by State (2001)
Source: Natural Gas Annual, Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
Center for Energy Studies
6,520
5,249
522 378
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
(Bc
f)Exhibit 2: Historic Production of
Natural Gas in Louisiana
Source: Natural Gas Monthly, Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
Center for Energy Studies
Note: Includes both onshore and offshore (state and federal) production
3,789
2,248
1,267 1,249
1,007893 860
660 591 570
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
TX CA LA NY IL MI OH PA NJ IN
(Top Ten Consuming States)
(Bc
f)Exhibit 3: Natural Gas
Consumption in the U.S. (2000)
Source: U.S. Natural Gas Consumption, Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
Center for Energy Studies
9.315.3 11.18.9 7.4 5.7
103.9
39.9
201.3
59.7
3.8
65.3
0
50
100
150
200
250
Texas California Louisiana
(Per Customer Consumption by Sector)
(Mc
f)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Electric Utility
Exhibit 4: Per Customer Natural Gas Consumption by Sector (2000)
Source: U.S. Natural Gas Consumption, Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy; and Annual Population Estimates by State, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau.
3.8 Bcf market 2.2 Bcf market 1.3 Bcf market
Center for Energy Studies
Exhibit 5: Natural Gas Used by Selected Industrial Sectors (2001)
Source: IHS Energy Group Inc., Major Industrial Plant Database, 2002
Center for Energy Studies
Natural Gas as Natural GasTotal Total Natural a Percent of Used Number of
Description Energy Used Gas Used Total Energy Boilers Furnaces Feedstock per Day Employees(Bcf)
Chemicals and Allied Products 583.4 557.3 95.5% 44.8% 40.0% 15.2% 1.53 23,586 Petroleum and Coal Products 153.1 109.3 71.4% 28.4% 71.2% 0.4% 0.30 15,685 Paper and Allied Products 132.0 26.3 19.9% 69.3% 30.7% 0.0% 0.07 25,348 Others 9.4 7.5 80.0% 65.8% 34.2% 0.0% 0.02 40,200 Food and Kindred Products 5.8 5.1 87.7% 85.7% 14.3% 0.0% 0.01 6,382 Primary Metal Industries 3.6 3.3 91.0% 14.3% 78.5% 7.2% 0.01 2,425 Stone, Clay & Glass Products 2.9 2.9 100.0% 2.1% 97.9% 0.0% 0.01 1,762
----- (trillion Btu) -----
Percent of Natural Gas Used for:
--------------------- (Percent) ---------------------
Exhibit 6: Daily Henry Hub Pricesfor 2002-2003 Heating Season
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$71
-No
v-0
2
8-N
ov
-02
15
-No
v-0
2
22
-No
v-0
2
29
-No
v-0
2
6-D
ec
-02
13
-De
c-0
2
20
-De
c-0
2
27
-De
c-0
2
3-J
an
-03
10
-Ja
n-0
3
17
-Ja
n-0
3
24
-Ja
n-0
3
31
-Ja
n-0
3
7-F
eb
-03
($/M
cf)
Source: Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
Center for Energy Studies
Note: Heating season is assumed to be November 1 through March 31.
Exhibit 7: Daily Henry Hub Prices (1999-Present)
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12J
an
-99
Ma
r-9
9
Ma
y-9
9
Ju
l-9
9
Se
p-9
9
No
v-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ma
r-0
0
Ma
y-0
0
Ju
l-0
0
Se
p-0
0
No
v-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ma
r-0
1
Ma
y-0
1
Ju
l-0
1
Se
p-0
1
No
v-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ma
r-0
2
Ma
y-0
2
Ju
l-0
2
Se
p-0
2
No
v-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
($/M
cf)
Center for Energy Studies
Source: Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
Exhibit 8: Average Henry Hub Price by Heating Season
$2.52
$6.72
$2.47
$4.93
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-present
(Heating Season)
($/M
cf)
Note: Heating season is assumed to be November 1 through March 31.
Center for Energy Studies
Source: Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
19
92
q1
19
92
q3
19
93
q1
19
93
q3
19
94
q1
19
94
q3
19
95
q1
19
95
q3
19
96
q1
19
96
q3
19
97
q1
19
97
q3
19
98
q1
19
98
q3
19
99
q1
19
99
q3
20
00
q1
20
00
q3
20
01
q1
20
01
q3
20
02
q1
20
02
q3
(Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
)Exhibit 9: Gross Domestic Product, Quarterly
Percent Change from Preceding Period(Based on Chained 1996 Dollars)
Center for Energy Studies
Source: National Accounts Data, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.
Exhibit 10: Institute for Supply Management’s Index for
Manufacturing Conditions (PMI)
Center for Energy Studies
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70J
an
-99
Ma
r-9
9
Ma
y-9
9
Ju
l-9
9
Se
p-9
9
No
v-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ma
r-0
0
Ma
y-0
0
Ju
l-0
0
Se
p-0
0
No
v-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ma
r-0
1
Ma
y-0
1
Ju
l-0
1
Se
p-0
1
No
v-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ma
r-0
2
Ma
y-0
2
Ju
l-0
2
Se
p-0
2
No
v-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
(PM
I)
Source: PMI History, Institute for Supply Management, http://www.ism.ws.
Exhibit 11: Change inWeather Patterns
Center for Energy Studies
Source: Natural Gas Winter Outlook, Natural Gas Supply Association.
Exhibit 12: Weekly Counts of Rotary Rigs in Operation (1999–Present)
Source: Baker-Hughes Inc. (February 12, 2003) web site: www.bakerhughes.com/investor/rig/rig_na.htm.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,4008
-Ja
n-9
9
8-M
ar-
99
8-M
ay
-99
8-J
ul-
99
8-S
ep
-99
8-N
ov
-99
8-J
an
-00
8-M
ar-
00
8-M
ay
-00
8-J
ul-
00
8-S
ep
-00
8-N
ov
-00
8-J
an
-01
8-M
ar-
01
8-M
ay
-01
8-J
ul-
01
8-S
ep
-01
8-N
ov
-01
8-J
an
-02
8-M
ar-
02
8-M
ay
-02
8-J
ul-
02
8-S
ep
-02
8-N
ov
-02
8-J
an
-03
(Nu
mb
er
of
Op
era
tin
g R
igs
)
Oil
Gas
Total
5-Year Average
Center for Energy Studies
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Ja
n-9
9
Ma
r-9
9
Ma
y-9
9
Ju
l-9
9
Se
p-9
9
No
v-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ma
r-0
0
Ma
y-0
0
Ju
l-0
0
Se
p-0
0
No
v-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ma
r-0
1
Ma
y-0
1
Ju
l-0
1
Se
p-0
1
No
v-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ma
r-0
2
Ma
y-0
2
Ju
l-0
2
Se
p-0
2
No
v-0
2
(Nu
mb
er
of
Op
era
tin
g R
igs
)
Louisiana - Onshore
Louisiana - Offshore
Texas-Onshore
Texas-Offshore
Exhibit 13: Monthly Average of Rotary Rigs in Operation,
Louisiana and Texas (1999-2002)
Source: Baker-Hughes Inc. (February 12, 2003) web site: www.bakerhughes.com/investor/rig/rig_na.htm.
Center for Energy Studies
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
De
c-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Ju
n-9
7
Se
p-9
7
De
c-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Ju
n-9
8
Se
p-9
8
De
c-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Ju
n-9
9
Se
p-9
9
De
c-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Ju
n-0
0
Se
p-0
0
De
c-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Ju
n-0
1
Se
p-0
1
De
c-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Ju
n-0
2
Se
p-0
2
(Nu
mb
er
of
Op
era
tin
g R
igs
)
50
52
54
56
58
60
(Bc
f/d
)
Rig Count
Production
Exhibit 14: U.S. Natural Gas Production and Monthly Rig Count
Center for Energy Studies
Source: Natural Gas Monthly, Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy; and Baker-Hughes Inc. (February 12, 2003) web site: www.bakerhughes.com/investor/rig/rig_na.htm.
Center for Energy Studies
Source: “Natural Gas: Can We Produce Enough?” Independent Petroleum Association of America, website: http://www.ipaa.org/govtrelations/factsheets/NaturalGasProdEnough.asp.
Exhibit 15: Resource Estimates – Restricted Areas Estimate and
Percentage Restricted
ANWR = 3.5 TCF
ANS = 35 TCF
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1-J
an
-99
1-M
ar-
99
1-M
ay
-99
1-J
ul-
99
1-S
ep
-99
1-N
ov
-99
1-J
an
-00
1-M
ar-
00
1-M
ay
-00
1-J
ul-
00
1-S
ep
-00
1-N
ov
-00
1-J
an
-01
1-M
ar-
01
1-M
ay
-01
1-J
ul-
01
1-S
ep
-01
1-N
ov
-01
1-J
an
-02
1-M
ar-
02
1-M
ay
-02
1-J
ul-
02
1-S
ep
-02
1-N
ov
-02
1-J
an
-03
(Bc
f)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Exhibit 16: Working Gas in UndergroundStorage Compared to 5-Year
Average and Range (1999–Present)
Source: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
Working Gas in Storage 5-Year Average
5-Year Range
Center for Energy Studies
Center for Energy Studies
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%J
an
-99
Ap
r-99
Ju
l-9
9
Oct
-99
Ja
n-0
0
Ap
r-00
Ju
l-0
0
Oct
-00
Ja
n-0
1
Ap
r-01
Ju
l-0
1
Oct
-01
Ja
n-0
2
Ap
r-02
Ju
l-0
2
Oct
-02
Ja
n-0
3
(Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
)Exhibit 17: U.S. Natural Gas in
Underground Storage – Deviation from 5-Year Average
Source: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy.
Exhibit 18: Demand Side Factors Influencing Future Natural Gas Prices
Center for Energy Studies
• Uncertainty Associated with Middle East and Global Conflicts
• Nature and Strength of Economic Recovery
• Weather
• Power Generation (Short Term and Long Term)
• Potential Demand Deterioration
Exhibit 19: Supply Side Factors Influencing Future Natural Gas Prices
Center for Energy Studies
• Access to Frontier Areas (ANWR, Eastern Gulf, Atlantic Seaboard, California, Western Federal Lands)
• Natural Gas Pipeline(s) from Alaska North Slope
• New Import Sources Via Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
• Alternative Hydrocarbon Recovery (Hydrates, Deepwater, Deep Formation, H2S Resources)
• Drilling/Production Incentives in Mature Basins
Exhibit 20: Conclusion
Center for Energy Studies
• Continued Strength in Natural Gas Prices Near-Term
• Weather and Demand Will Play Big Role in Price Development Over Summer
• Worry Will Be How Storage Evolves Throughout the Year if Prices Remain High
• What Storage Position Will Arise Entering the Next Heating Season (?)
