David Kotok

©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors

®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.

Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013

One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue

2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360

Sarasota, FL 34236

Global Interdependence CenterMilan, ItalyMay16, 2013

David Kotok

Chairman and Chief Investment Officer

(800) 257-7013 ext. 320

[email protected]

Twitter: @CumberlandADV



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$450

$600

$750

$900

$1,050

$1,200

$1,350

$1,500

$1,650

$1,800

$1,950

$2,100

$2,250

$2,400

$2,550

$2,700

$2,850

$3,000

$3,150

$3,300

$3,450

$3,600

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$ B

nFactors Adding to Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Assets) Plus

Off-Balance TSLF from 6/27/07 to 5/8/13

Mortgage Backed Securities

US Treasuries




Sarasota, FL 34236

2

Factors Adding to Reserves

Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1.






Sarasota, FL 34236

3

Factors Using Reserves

TSLF-3/11/08, 9

50

"TDWP -8/17/07"

TAF-12/12/07

PDCF-3/16/08

Series Break

Series Break

$450

$600

$750

$900

$1,050

$1,200

$1,350

$1,500

$1,650

$1,800

$1,950

$2,100

$2,250

$2,400

$2,550

$2,700

$2,850

$3,000

$3,150

$3,300

$3,450

$3,600

27-J

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2

11-J

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22-A

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3-O

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14-N

ov-1

2

26-D

ec-1

2

6-F

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3

20-M

ar-1

3

1-M

ay-1

3

Factors Using Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Liabilities) from 6/27/2007 to 5/8/2013

Bil

lio

ns

Currency in Circulation

Reserve Balances

Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week.

Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1.






Sarasota, FL 34236

4

Projected Baseline Assets

Source: “Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy.” Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).

Mortgage Backed Securities

US Treasuries






Sarasota, FL 34236

5

Projected Baseline Liabilities

Source: “Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy.” Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).

Reserve Balances

Currency in Circulation






Sarasota, FL 34236

6

Everyone Is Now Looking at Jobs

• When will unemployment – most recently at 7.7% – hit 6.5%?

In looking at job formation we have assumed 0.7% annual growth in the labor force and a -0.3% annual change in the participation rate.






Sarasota, FL 34236

7

How Many Jobs Does the Economy Create?

Assumed Quarterly %

Real GDP Growth

Estimated Number of

Jobs Created within

the Quarter

Estimated Number of

Quarters to Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Estimated Number

of Jobs Created

Within Quarter

Estimated Number

of Quarters to

Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Estimated Number

of Jobs Created

Within Quarter

Estimated

Number of

Quarters to

Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Average Hi (95%) Interval Low (95%) Interval

1 161 20 188 17 134 24

2 322 10 377 9 268 12

3 483 7 565 6 402 8

4 644 5 753 4 536 6

Assumed Quarterly %

Real GDP Growth

Estimated Number of

Jobs Created per

Month

Estimated Number of

Months to Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Estimated Number

of Jobs Created per

Month

Estimated Number

of Months to

Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Estimated Number

of Jobs Created

Within Month

Estimated

Number of

Months to

Create 3.217

Million Jobs

Average Hi (95%) Interval Low (95%) Interval

1 54 60 63 51 45 72

2 107 30 126 26 89 36

3 161 20 188 17 134 24

4 215 15 251 13 179 18

Source: Haver and Cumberland Advisors






Sarasota, FL 34236

8

GDP Growth Needed to Create Enough Jobs for Unemployment to Hit 6.5%

Source: Cumberland Advisors






Sarasota, FL 34236

9

Job Growth Needed to Hit 6.5% Unemployment

Source: Cumberland Advisors

1030507090

110130150170190210230250270290310330350370390410430450470490510530550570590610630650

4/1

/20

12

7/1

0/2

01

2

10

/18

/20

12

1/2

6/2

01

3

5/6

/20

13

8/1

4/2

01

3

11

/22

/20

13

3/2

/20

14

6/1

0/2

01

4

9/1

8/2

01

4

12

/27

/20

14

4/6

/20

15

7/1

5/2

01

5

10

/23

/20

15

1/3

1/2

01

6

5/1

0/2

01

6

8/1

8/2

01

6

11

/26

/20

16

3/6

/20

17

6/1

4/2

01

7

9/2

2/2

01

7

12

/31

/20

17

Month in Which Unemployment Rate Reaches 6.5% for Assumed

Monthly Job Growth - Labor Force is Assumed to Increase at .7%

Annually and Participation Rate is Assumed to Decline .3% Annually

95% Confidence Lower Bound

95% Confidence Upper Bound

If the economy creates 210,000 jobs per month, unemployment

will hit 6.5% between Feb 2014 and May 2014.






Sarasota, FL 34236

10

The Beveridge Curve: Job Vacancy Rate vs. U-3 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5

Job

Vaca

ncy

Rate

U-3 Unemployment Rate

Dec '01- Nov '07 Dec '07- Jun '09 Jul '09- Mar '13

Nov '07

Dec '12

Jun '09

Dec '01

Dec '07

Jul '09

Mar '13

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey, May 7, 2013






Sarasota, FL 34236

11

Monthly U-3 Unemployment vs. Inflation

Jan-07

Feb-07 Mar-07Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07Nov-07

Dec-07Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

May-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Jul-09Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09 Nov-09

Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10

Mar-10Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10 Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11May-11 Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11Dec-11

Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12

Apr-12May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12Jan-13

Feb-13Mar-13

Fed Target

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

-3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(U-3

)

Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis Fed Wants to Close this Gap

During Crisis

(Dec. '07-June '09)

Post Crisis

(Jul '09-present)

Pre-Crisis

(Jan '07-Nov '07)

(6.5% U-3 unemployment rate, 2.5% inflation rate)

Fed Wants to Close

This Gap

Source: Concept: Thomas W. Synnott, Bureau of Labor Statistics April 16, 2013

Jan-07

Feb-07 Mar-07Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07Nov-07

Dec-07Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

May-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Jul-09Aug-09

Sep-09

Oct-09 Nov-09

Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10

Mar-10Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10 Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11May-11 Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11Dec-11

Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12

Apr-12May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12Jan-13

Feb-13Mar-13

Fed Target

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

-3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(U-3

)

Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis Fed Wants to Close this Gap

During Crisis

(Dec. '07-June '09)

Post Crisis

(Jul '09-present)

Pre-Crisis

(Jan '07-Nov '07)


Fed Wants to Close

This Gap

©Copyright 2013 Cumberland Advisors®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.




Sarasota, FL 34236

12

U3 Through U6

Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc. Data through April 2013.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pe

rce

nt

U6 U5 U4 U3

U4 : U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.U5 : U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.U6 : U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons.

Source: BLS





Sarasota, FL 34236

13

Sources of Difference Between U6 and Standard Employment Statistic – U3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

Ma

y

Se

p

Jan

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Percent

Sources of Difference Between U-6 and Standard Unemployoment

Statistic (Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors)

% Discouraged Workers %Marginally Attached Workers %Part-Time Workers Who Want Full Time Work

Estimate 3.5% above

Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc. Data through April 2013.





Sarasota, FL 34236

14

Source: Concept: Thomas W. Synnott, Bureau of Labor Statistics April 16, 2013

Monthly U-6 Unemployment vs. Inflation

Jan-07

Feb-07 Mar-07Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07 Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-08

Feb-08 Mar-08Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09Apr-09

May-09 Jun-09

Jul-09Aug-09

Sep-09Oct-09 Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10Jun-10 Jul-10Aug-10

Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11Nov-11

Dec-11 Jan-12Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12Oct-12

Nov-12Dec-12

Jan-13

Implied

Fed Target

Feb-13

Mar-13

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Une

mpl

oym

ent

Rate

(U-6

)

Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis Fed Wants to Close This Gap

During Crisis

(Dec. '07-June '09)

Post Crisis

(Jul '09-present)

Pre-Crisis

(Jan '07-Nov '07)


Fed Wants to Close

This Gap

Jan-07

Feb-07 Mar-07Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

Jul-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07 Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-08

Feb-08 Mar-08Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09Apr-09

May-09 Jun-09

Jul-09Aug-09

Sep-09Oct-09 Nov-09

Dec-09

Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10Jun-10 Jul-10Aug-10

Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11Nov-11

Dec-11 Jan-12Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12Oct-12

Nov-12Dec-12

Jan-13

Implied

Fed Target

Feb-13

Mar-13

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(U-6

)

Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis Fed Wants to Close This Gap

During Crisis

(Dec. '07-June '09)

Post Crisis

(Jul '09-present)

Pre-Crisis

(Jan '07-Nov '07)


Fed Wants to Close

This Gap





Sarasota, FL 34236

15

Monthly Jobs Created (NSA) & New Claims

Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.

-0.8%

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

Monthly Jobs Created (NSA) and New Claims as a Percent of Covered Employment

Recession Periods Jobs/Covered Employment 4 Wk Moving Avg of New Claims/Covered Employment

Given current size of the labor market, the economy would have to create an average of 273K jobs per month for the ratio of Jobs/Covered Employment to be comparable to what it was between July86-Nov90, Jan93-Mar00. The number of jobs needed will increase as the labor force expands.





Sarasota, FL 34236

16

Total Assets of Major Central Banks

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

Fe

b-0

6

Ap

r-06

Jun

-06

Au

g-0

6

Oct-0

6

De

c-06

Fe

b-0

7

Ap

r-07

Jun

-07

Au

g-0

7

Oct-0

7

De

c-07

Fe

b-0

8

Ap

r-08

Jun

-08

Au

g-0

8

Oct-0

8

De

c-08

Fe

b-0

9

Ap

r-09

Jun

-09

Au

g-0

9

Oct-0

9

De

c-09

Fe

b-1

0

Ap

r-10

Jun

-10

Au

g-1

0

Oct-1

0

De

c-10

Fe

b-1

1

Ap

r-11

Jun

-11

Au

g-1

1

Oct-1

1

De

c-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ap

r-12

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2

Oct-1

2

De

c-12

Fe

b-1

3

$ Billions

Monthly Central Bank Assets (Dollar Equivalents on Left Scale $ Billions) for US, UK,Japan, Euro Area, and Swiss National Bank

from June-06 to Dec-14

Federal Reserve Bank of England ECB Bank of Japan Swiss National Bank

2014 Cumberland Estimates X

Estimates in US Dollars

Total: $11.6 tr

Swiss: $1.38 tr

BOJ: 2.9 tr

ECB: 3 tr

BOE: 520 bn

Fed: 3.8 tr

Source: Credit Suisse and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.





Sarasota, FL 34236

17

European System of Central Banks

Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank.

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

1/1/1999

5/21/1999

10/8/1999

2/25/2000

7/14/2000

12/1/2000

4/20/2001

9/7/2001

1/25/2002

6/14/2002

11/1/2002

3/21/2003

8/8/2003

12/26/2003

5/14/2004

10/1/2004

2/18/2005

7/8/2005

11/25/2005

4/14/2006

9/1/2006

1/19/2007

6/8/2007

10/26/2007

3/14/2008

8/1/2008

12/19/2008

5/8/2009

9/25/2009

2/12/2010

7/2/2010

11/19/2010

4/8/2011

8/26/2011

1/13/2012

6/1/2012

10/19/2012

3/8/2013

Eurosystem: Other Assets (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: General Govt DebtDenominated in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Securities of Euro AreaResid in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Oth Claim on Eur AreaCred Inst in Euro(NSA Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Lending to Euro AreaCred Inst in Euro (NSA Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on NoneuroResidents in Euros (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Euro Res inFgn Currency (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Noneuro Resin Fgn Currency (NSA Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Asset: Gold and GoldReceivables (NSA, Mil.EUR)

European System of Central Banks Assets in Euros from 01/05/07 to 05/03/13





Sarasota, FL 34236

18

European System - Liabilities

Source: Oesterreichische Nationalbank.

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

1/1/1999

5/21/1999

10/8/1999

2/25/2000

7/14/2000

12/1/2000

4/20/2001

9/7/2001

1/25/2002

6/14/2002

11/1/2002

3/21/2003

8/8/2003

12/26/2003

5/14/2004

10/1/2004

2/18/2005

7/8/2005

11/25/2005

4/14/2006

9/1/2006

1/19/2007

6/8/2007

10/26/2007

3/14/2008

8/1/2008

12/19/2008

5/8/2009

9/25/2009

2/12/2010

7/2/2010

11/19/2010

4/8/2011

8/26/2011

1/13/2012

6/1/2012

10/19/2012

3/8/2013

Eurosystem: Capital and Reserves(NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Revaluation Accounts(NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Other Liabilities (NSA,

Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab: Counterpart of

SDRs Allocated by IMF (NSA,

Mil.EUR)Eurosystem: Liab to Noneuro Area

Resid in Fgn Currency (NSA,Mil.EUR)Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area

Residents in Fgn Currency (NSA,Mil.EUR)Eurosystem: Liab to Non-euro AreaResidents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab to Other Euro AreaResidents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab: Debt Certificates

Issued (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Other Liab to Euro Area

Credit Inst in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area Credit

Institutions in Euro(NSA, Mil.EUR)

Eurosystem: Liab: Banknotes in

Circulation (NSA, Mil.EUR)

European System of Central Banks Liabilities in Euros from 01/05/07 to 05/03/13





Sarasota, FL 34236

19

Bank of England Assets

Source: Bank of England.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000 UK: BoE Consol St: Short-term Open Mkt Operations{RPWB66A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Total Other Assets{RPWB74A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Cons St: Other Sec Acq Via Mkt Transactns{RPWB73A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consol St: Advances to the Central Govt {RPWB72A} --DISC(NSA,Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consol St: Longer-term Reverse Repo {RPWB69A}(NSA, Mil.Pounds)

Bank of England Assets in Pounds Sterling from 01/03/07 to 05/08/13





Sarasota, FL 34236

20

Bank of England Liabilities

Source: Bank of England.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

1/3/2007

4/3/2007

7/3/2007

10/3/2007

1/3/2008

4/3/2008

7/3/2008

10/3/2008

1/3/2009

4/3/2009

7/3/2009

10/3/2009

1/3/2010

4/3/2010

7/3/2010

10/3/2010

1/3/2011

4/3/2011

7/3/2011

10/3/2011

1/3/2012

4/3/2012

7/3/2012

10/3/2012

1/3/2013

4/3/2013

UK: BoE Consolidated St: Foreign Currency Securities{RPWB59A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Other Liabilities{RPWB63A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consolidated Statement: Cash Ratio Deposits{RPWB62A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Cons St: Open Mkt Operatns: Fine-tuning Repo

{RPWB58A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consol St: Standing Facility Deposits

{RPWB57A} --DISC (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consol St: Reserve Balance Liabilities

{RPWB56A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

UK: BoE Consolidated St: Notes in Circulation{RPWB55A} (NSA, Mil.Pounds)

Bank of England Liabilities in Pounds Sterling from 01/03/07 to 05/08/13





Sarasota, FL 34236

21

Swiss National Bank Liabilities

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

01

20

07

04

20

07

07

20

07

10

20

07

01

20

08

04

20

08

07

20

08

10

20

08

01

20

09

04

20

09

07

20

09

10

20

09

01

20

10

04

20

10

07

20

10

10

20

10

01

20

11

04

20

11

07

20

11

10

20

11

01

20

12

04

20

12

07

20

12

10

20

12

01

20

13

Swiss National Bank Liabilities in Swiss Francs from 01/31/07 to 03/31/13

Provisions and equity capital

Other liabilities

Counterpart of special drawing rights allocated by

the IF

Foreign currency liabilities

Other tie liabilities

SNB debt certificates

Liabilities from CHF repo transactions

Other sight liabilities

Sight deposits of foreign banks and institutions

Liabilities towards the Confederation

Sight deposits of domestic banks

Banknotes in circulation


0.00

20,000.00

40,000.00

60,000.00

80,000.00

100,000.00

120,000.00

140,000.00

160,000.00

180,000.00

200,000.00

Jul-

97

No

v-9

7

Ma

r-9

8

Jul-

98

No

v-9

8

Ma

r-9

9

Jul-

99

No

v-9

9

Ma

r-0

0

Jul-

00

No

v-0

0

Ma

r-0

1

Jul-

01

No

v-0

1

Ma

r-0

2

Jul-

02

No

v-0

2

Ma

r-0

3

Jul-

03

No

v-0

3

Ma

r-0

4

Jul-

04

No

v-0

4

Ma

r-0

5

Jul-

05

No

v-0

5

Ma

r-0

6

Jul-

06

No

v-0

6

Ma

r-0

7

Jul-

07

No

v-0

7

Ma

r-0

8

Jul-

08

No

v-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Jul-

09

No

v-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Jul-

10

No

v-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Jul-

11

No

v-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Jul-

12

No

v-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Y

e

n

Bank of Japan Assets from 7/ 97 to 4/13

Gold (Bil.Yen) Receivables Under Resale Agreements (Bi l.Yen) Bills Purchased (Bil.Yen)

Government Securities in Custody (Bil.Yen) Commercial Bills Discounted (Bil.Yen) Commer cial Paper (EOP, Bil.Yen)

Corporate Bonds (EOP, Bil.Yen) Pecuniary Trusts [Stocks Held as Trust Property] (Bi l.Yen) Index-Linked Exch-Traded Funds Held as Trust Prop(Bil.Yen)

Real Estate Invt Trusts (Bil.Yen) Cash (Bil.Yen) Japanese Government Securities (Bil.Yen)

Asset -B acked Securities (Bil.Yen) Loans Excluding Those to the Deposit Insurance Corp(Bil .Yen) Loans to Deposit Insurance Corporat ion (Bi l.Yen)

Foreign Currency Assets (Bil.Yen) Deposits with Agents (Bil.Yen) Cash Collat in Exchange for Govt Securities Borrowed(Bil.Yen)

Other (Bil.Yen) Total Assets (Bi l.Yen)




Sarasota, FL 34236

22

Bank of Japan Assets

Japan removes QE2

with Bills Purchased

Source: Bank of Japan.


0.00

20,000.00

40,000.00

60,000.00

80,000.00

100,000.00

120,000.00

140,000.00

160,000.00

180,000.00

200,000.00

Y

e

n

Bank of Japan Liabilities from 7/ 97 to 4/13

Banknotes (Bil.Yen) Current deposits (Bil.Yen) Other deposits (Bil.Yen)

Payables Under Repurchase Agreements (Bil.Yen) Bills Sold (Bil.Yen) Other (Bil.Yen)

Provisions (Bil.Yen) Deposits of the Govt(Bil.Yen) Capital (Bil.Yen)

Legal & Special Reserves (Bil.Yen) Govt Securities Borrowed (Bil.Yen) Total Liabilities & Capital Accounts (Bil.Yen)




Sarasota, FL 34236

23

Bank of Japan Liabilities

Japan removes QE2

with Current Deposits

Removed

Source: Bank of Japan.





Sarasota, FL 34236

24

All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable.

However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no

guarantee of future results.

Disclosure

Documents

David Kotok