U.S. CLIVAR Program

U.S. CLIVAR Program

David M. LeglerU.S. CLIVAR Office

U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program

www.usclivar.org

legler@usclivar.org

Linkages between WGSIP and US CLIVAR

WGSIP MeetingJanuary 2009

U.S. CLIVAR Program

U.S. CLIVAR Program

Outline• Relevant US activities

– Drought Working Group (Randy) – Decadal Predictability Working Group– CPTs– Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

(AMOC)– PPAI Panel

• Coordinating efforts - how?

U.S. CLIVAR Program

U.S. CLIVAR Program

• Defining drought (observations and related model predictands)• Coordinated model experiments (Randy’s presentation)• Organized Drought Workshop, October 2008

•Key issues/questions: • Given the predictability of some droughts (as suggested by

numerous studies) exploring how we move forward on • Coordinating/encouraging further drought predictability

studies?• Encouraging cooperation/coordination of S–I prediction models

for applications such as drought prediction?

• Is it time to begin to think about experimental prediction

systems for long-term drought (particularly on decadal time

scales)?

Drought Working Group(16 members: GEWEX, Service Providers, International Scientists)

http://www.usclivar.org/Organization/drought-wg.html

WCRP ExtremesWCRP ExtremesGoalsGoals• To summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of climate extremes To summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of climate extremes

and develop a common language amongst researchers and end users.and develop a common language amongst researchers and end users.• To design an intercomparison framework through which both To design an intercomparison framework through which both

observations, model representations of extremes & projections of observations, model representations of extremes & projections of climate can be assessed & by which changes in climate extremes can climate can be assessed & by which changes in climate extremes can be better evaluated.be better evaluated.

• To accelerate progress on the prediction of climate extremes with a To accelerate progress on the prediction of climate extremes with a focus on developing capabilities and products which facilitate practical focus on developing capabilities and products which facilitate practical applications for stakeholders (end users/constituents) & regions around applications for stakeholders (end users/constituents) & regions around the world.the world.

• To assess and improve the observational and dataset framework for To assess and improve the observational and dataset framework for study of global extremesstudy of global extremes

• To determine how extremes are changing and varying and why To determine how extremes are changing and varying and why (including their relationship to mean variables, physical factors, shape (including their relationship to mean variables, physical factors, shape of pdf etc).of pdf etc).

GEWEX and CLIVAR have agreed to the following:GEWEX and CLIVAR have agreed to the following:

Many relevant activities within GEWEX and CLIVAR will continue

Catalyze & coordinate a focus on drought, e.g. expand/link what the US has developed (e.g., Working Group, DRICOMP) to other activities, e.g. CEOP, CSEs, HRF project analysis, international analysis of US runs, etc

Scope and range of activities to be worked out over next several months

U.S. CLIVAR Program

U.S. CLIVAR Program

(US) CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group

GOAL 1• Define a framework to distinguish natural variability

from anthropogenically forced variability on decadal time scale for the purpose of assessing predictability of decadal-scale climate variations– assess the extent to which analysis of decadal variability

and predictability depends on the method of separation, as well as the pros and cons of different methodologies.• white paper - BAMS(?)

• special session on Isolating Natural Decadal Variability in the Climate Records

Chairs: Amy Solomon, Arun Kumar, Lisa Goddard

U.S. CLIVAR Program

U.S. CLIVAR Program

CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group

GOAL 2• Develop a framework for understanding decadal variability

through metrics that can be used as a strategy to assess and validate decadal climate predictions/simulations.– Identify common metrics to assess the simulation of decadal

variability in climate models– Use these metrics to investigate mechanisms that cause

predictability on decadal time scales– Organize a workshop on these Metrics to Assess Decadal

Predictions in Climate Models

– When AR5 decadal prediction database becomes available, recommend a call by (US) funding agencies for numerous small projects (similar to DRICOMP) to investigate decadal predictability in the AR5 initialized decadal climate projections.

Timeline: beginning Jan 2009….run approx 2 years

U.S. CLIVAR Program

U.S. CLIVAR Program

CPTs - Climate Process and modeling Teams

• Initial CPTs (several $million research investment) focusing on IPCC-class models have ended

• Whitepapers highlighting successes and lessons learned nearing completion

• Planning for new CPTs in 2010+• Processes that vex prediction systems are

similar to those for IPCC-class models…. Possible opportunity for US and other centers to participate…

U.S. CLIVAR Program

U.S. CLIVAR Program

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.Linked to CCSP

US Ocean Research Priorities Plan (ORPP)

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC): Implications for Rapid Climate Change

A Near-Term Priority (1 of 4) of the ORPP

Anticipated Outcomes• Enhanced understanding of the AMOC

system• Design of a comprehensive MOC

observation and monitoring program. • New forecasting capabilities• Improved ocean models, coupled models,

and ocean analyses for their initialization. • Characterization of the impacts and

feedbacks of changes in the MOC on ecosystems, carbon budgets, and regional climate.

• 5-year Program

• Potential of $5M-15M per year

• AMOC Implementation Strategy released 10/24/07

• Int’l CLIVAR Atlantic Panel is coordinating int’l activities

• The design and implementation of an AMOC monitoring system• An assessment of AMOC’s role in the global climate • An assessment of AMOC predictability

U.S. AMOC Scientific Objectives

• Develop an AMOC state estimate or “fingerprint”• Monitor AMOC transports• Evaluate coherence and connectivity of AMOC circulation and transports• Assess AMOC observing systems with ocean models• Reconstruct AMOC variability and associated property fields• Model the ocean state during the instrumental period• Develop longer-term proxies for AMOC variability• Diagnose mechanisms of AMOC variability and change• Assess AMOC predictability• Determine impact and feedback of AMOC variability• Assess role of AMOC in producing observed changes

Recommended Activities

AMOC Organization

Interagency Group Science TeamSusan Lozier, chair Duke UniversityMolly Baringer NOAA AOMLJim Carton University of MarylandPing Chang Texas A&MTom Delworth NOAA GFDLKathleen Donohue University of Rhode IslandSirpa Hakkinen NASA/GSFCBill Johns RSMAS - Univ. of MiamiGeorge Halliwell RSMAS - Univ. of MiamiKathie Kelly University of WashingtonCraig Lee University of WashingtonTony Lee NASA JPLTim Liu NASA JPLPeter Minnett RSMAS - Univ. of MiamiUwe Send Scripps Inst. of OceanographyFiamma Straneo Woods Hole Oceanographic

Inst.John Toole Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst.Josh Willis NASA JPLCarl Wunsch MIT

U.S. CLIVAR Program

U.S. CLIVAR Program

International CLIVAR

US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee

Pan

els

Predictability, Predictions &

Applications Interface (PPAI)

Working Groups (short-term)

Inter-Agency Group (IAG)Federal Program Managers

Process Studies & Model improvement (PSMI)

Phenomenology, Observations, & Synthesis

(POS)

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U.S. CLIVAR Office

As of January 2009:• Ocean Salinity (completed)• MJO (completed…Int’l development)• Drought (nearly completed)• Western Boundary Current (workshop)• High-latitude fluxes• Decadal Predictability (initiated Jan 09)

U.S. CLIVAR OrganizationU.S. CLIVAR Organization

“Best Practices”Research PrioritiesCoordination

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

U.S. CLIVAR Program

U.S. CLIVAR Program

PPAI Panel Interactions

• Overlap of chairs with WGSIP (Kirtman) helpful

• During next few months we will invite new members and energize the group…

U.S. CLIVAR Program

U.S. CLIVAR Program

END

U.S. CLIVAR Program

U.S. CLIVAR Program

Extra slides

1) Where possible, develop scalar metrics of MJO model skill for use in 1) Where possible, develop scalar metrics of MJO model skill for use in multi-model comparisons and for tracking model fidelity.multi-model comparisons and for tracking model fidelity.

2) Work with the observation, model-development, and theoretical 2) Work with the observation, model-development, and theoretical communities to develop process-oriented diagnostics to improve our communities to develop process-oriented diagnostics to improve our insight into the physical mechanisms for robust MJO simulation.insight into the physical mechanisms for robust MJO simulation.

3) Continue to explore multi-scale interactions & convectively-coupled 3) Continue to explore multi-scale interactions & convectively-coupled equatorial waves, both in observations and high resolution modeling equatorial waves, both in observations and high resolution modeling frameworks, with particular emphasis on vertical structure and diabatic frameworks, with particular emphasis on vertical structure and diabatic processesprocesses

4) Expand efforts to develop and implement MJO forecast metrics under 4) Expand efforts to develop and implement MJO forecast metrics under operational conditionsoperational conditions

5) Develop an experimental modeling framework to assess MJO 5) Develop an experimental modeling framework to assess MJO predictability and forecast skill from contemporary/operational models.predictability and forecast skill from contemporary/operational models.

CLIVAR MJO Workshop RecommendationsNew Approaches to Understanding, Simulating, and Forecasting the New Approaches to Understanding, Simulating, and Forecasting the

Madden-Julian OscillationMadden-Julian Oscillation

BAMS Meeting SummaryBAMS Meeting Summary