David N. Wear, Southern Research Station

John G. Greis, Southern Region USDA Forest Service

Why?

• Because citizens of the South and nation rely on the > 200 million acres of southern forests for many goods, services, and values…

• And because multiple pressures are affecting forests…

• The USFS and SGSF chartered the Southern Forest Futures Project to evaluate the future…

What is the SFFP?

• The Southern Forest Futures Project (SFFP) provides a science-based “futuring” analysis for the forests of the southeastern United States

• The ultimate goal is to translate these science findings into useable information for management and policy making

What is being produced by the SFFP?

• Phase I (May 2011): Region-wide – Technical Report

• 17 Chapters exploring forecasts and meta-issues

– Summary Report • Compact synthesis of findings and implications

• Phase II (Winter 2012): Subregional – Subregional Management Implication Reports

• Forthcoming translation of findings for 5 subregions in the South

SFFP Subregions

How was the SFFP Conducted?

• Chartered by USFS and SGSF

• Public Scoping – 15 public meetings;

>600 people • Technical Analysis

– >40 scientists/analysts • Peer Review

– Highly Influential Scientific Assessment

Management and restoration implications

Subregional Analysis

Implications for various ecosystem services

Meta-Issue Analysis

Forecast of resource conditions and uses

Forecasting Analysis

Storyline A1B Storyline B2

High Timber Prices Cornerstone A(MIROC GCM)

Cornerstone C(CSIRO GCM)

Low Timber Prices Cornerstone B (CSIRO GCM)

Cornerstone D(Hadley GCM)

Cornerstone E(based on A, with high planting rates)

Cornerstone F(based on D, with low planting rates)

Cornerstone Futures

• Defined by – Population/income

forecasts from RPA/IPCC

– Climate forecasts from RPA/IPCC

– Product market futures

– Tree planting intensities

• 6 Cornerstones (A-F) Cornerstone futures provide a foundation for exploring a range of effects. Analytical futures provide additional insights into markets and other questions.

Cornerstone Futures—drivers

• Downscaled data – County-level from RPA – Population growth

(annual) – Personal incomes

(annual) – Climate data

(monthly) • Precipitation • Temperature

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000

2006 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

thou

sand

peo

ple

A1B B2 A2

Cornerstone Futures-drivers

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

$ pe

r mbf

(200

9=10

0)

$ pe

r cor

d (2

009=

100)

S Pulp H Pulp S Saw H Saw

• Price data – Growth rates applied to

Timber Mart South subregions (26)

– 2006 base • Planting data

– Planting rates applied for forest types within survey units

– Based on empirical planting rates from FIA plot records

US Forest Assessment System

Wood Products

Projections

Forest Inventory

Projections

Land Use Projections

Water Projections

Population projections

Technology Projections

Economic Projections

Scenario Server

Climate Data Server

Forest Inventory Data

Server

US Forest Products

Model

Forest Dynamics Model

All Land Use Model

Wildlife Projections

Carbon Projections

Forest Dynamics Model

Forest inventory

(2010)

Forest transition

model

Forest inventory

(2020)

Objective: forecast structure of forest inventory for a given future. Choice of the forest metric is important. We chose to explicitly model the development of the forest inventory… consistent with its area-frame design. … a national forecasting system that is consistent with the national monitoring system This allows for direct comparison of forecasted inventories with historical records…. Also allows for constant updating with new inventories and challenging hypotheses using new inventories.

Harvesting (2010-2020)

Wood Products markets

Climate (2010-2020) Land Use

Change

Ten Key findings Next we present a set of ten key findings that provide a synthesis of the findings contained in the 17-chapter technical report… Each finding represents work from two or more chapters…

Key Finding 1

• These factors need to be considered in combination

• Socioeconomic factors dominate climate early

A combination of four primary factors will interact to reshape the South’s forests: •Population growth •Climate change •Timber markets •Invasive species

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2006 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Mill

ion

peo

ple

Cornerstones A and B Cornerstones C and D

12

14

16

18

20

22

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Aver

age

annu

al te

mpe

ratu

re (°

C)

Cornerstone A (MIROC3.2 + A1B) Cornerstone B (CSIROMK3.5 + A1B)

Cornerstone C (CSIROMK2 + B2) Cornerstone D (HadCM3 + B2)

Key Finding 2

• Urbanization : 30-43 million acres by 2060

• Forest losses: 11-23 million acres by 2060 Urbanization is

forecasted to result in forest losses, increased carbon emissions, and stress on other forest resources

Land use changes

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Chan

ge in

are

a (p

erce

nt)

Appalachian-Cumberland Coastal Plain Mid-South Mississippi Alluvial Valley Piedmont

Forest Carbon Forecasts

11800

11900

12000

12100

12200

12300

12400

12500

12600

12700

12800

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Mill

ion

Tons

A

B

C

D

E

F

Key Finding 3

• Supply continues to grow • With moderate demand growth: no

upward pressure on the prices • Orderly change –up to 70% expansion

Southern forests could sustain higher timber production levels, but demand is the limiting factor and demand growth is uncertain

-1000

1000

3000

5000

7000

9000

11000

13000

15000

1977 1987 1996 2006 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 m

illio

n cu

bic

feet

S. Sawtimber S. pulpwood H. Sawtimber H. Pulpwood

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

$/m

bf

(saw

timbe

r)

$/co

rd

(pul

pwoo

d pr

oduc

ts)

S Pulp H Pulp S Saw H Saw

Growing Stock Forecasts

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Billi

on C

ubic

Fee

t A

B

C

D

E

F

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Billi

on C

ubic

Fee

t A B C D E F

Softwood

Hardwood

Growing Stock Forecasts

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Billi

on C

ubic

Fee

t

Hardwood(A) Softwood (A) Softwood (D) Hardwood(D)

Key Finding 4

• Bioenergy: highest potential for demand growth

• Demands quickly exhaust wood waste and lead to strong demand for softwood pulpwood

• Bioenergy would compete with traditional wood products

• Forecasts range from an additional 54% to 113% over 2006 timber harvest volumes by 2050.

Bioenergy futures could bring demands that are large enough to trigger changes in forest conditions, management, and markets

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

Mill

ion

gree

n to

ns

Year

Low-consumption scenario Medium-consumption scenario

High-consumption scenario Urban wood waste

Forest product industry

Pine plantation response to market demands

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Planted pine Natural pine

Oak–pine Upland hardwood

Lowland hardwood

47 million acres

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Planted pine Natural pine

Oak–pine Upland hardwood

Lowland hardwood

67 million acres

Plantation response ranges between forecasts for Cornerstones E and F

Key Finding 5

• Futures lead to increased water stress in several areas of the South.

• The future of water quality in developing watersheds will be affected by the area and condition of forests. A combination of

factors has the potential to decrease water availability and degrade quality. Forest conservation and management can help to mitigate these effects

Supply Demand

Climate

Land use Population

Reservoirs, groundwater, infrastructure

Water price, Economics

Key Finding 6

• Key invasive insect and disease pests grew over the past 10 years

• Area of plant invasions could expand from 19 million to about 27 million acres in the next 50 years.

Invasive species create a great but uncertain potential for ecological changes and economic loss

Key Finding 7

• Wildland fire potential is likely to increase over the next 50 years

• Major wildfire events are also likely to occur more often.

• Several obstacles may impede the ability to practice prescribed burning

• Private and State firefighting capacity has been reduced

An extended fire season combined with obstacles to prescribed burning will increase wildland fire-related hazards

Key Finding 8

• Private owners hold more than 86 percent of forests in the South

• Forest investment instruments increase “churn”—potential for rapid change

• Family forest owners are likewise subject to dynamic forces which encourage parcelization and fragmentation.

Private owners control forest futures and ownership patterns have become less stable

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Industry TIMO REIT Other

Acre

s Commercial Forest Ownership

1998

2003

2008

Key Finding 9

• Coastal Plain forests: rising sea levels, intensifying management, spreading invasive species, and urbanization affect species

• The Appalachian-Cumberland subregion contains a large number of threatened plants and imperiled vertebrates (especially amphibians) coincident with development

Threats to species of conservation concern are widespread but are especially concentrated in the Coastal Plain and Appalachian-Cumberland subregions.

Federal status plant species

Key Finding 10 Increasing populations would increase demand for forest based recreation while the availability of land to meet these needs is forecasted to decline 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Nat

iona

l for

est v

isits

(mill

ions

)

Southern national forest visits by site-type, 2008 to 2060

Day-use developed sites Overnight-use developed sites Wilderness General forest areas

In conclusion…

• Our scope does not include prescriptions for policymaking, yet policy is an important factor in the forecasts.

• The unfolding of the future will clearly depend on myriad policies including those affecting trade, domestic taxes, and perhaps most directly, policies designed to encourage bioenergy production

Thanks for listening…