DBE RESPONSE TO NQF IMPACT STUDY

DG: Department of Basic Education Mr HM Mweli 5 January 2016

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS

SDG 4 “Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all”

3

PRINCIPLES

• Access • Redress • Equity • Efficiency and • Quality

5

SIZE AND SHAPE OF THE

SECTOR

6

EDUCATION STATISTICS AT A GLANCE, 2014

Size of the Schooling System: Learners: 12 655 436 Educators: 425 090 Schools: 25 741 Official languages English, isiZulu, isiXhosa, isiNdebele, Afrikaans, siSwati, Sepedi Sesotho, Setswana, Tshivenda, Xitsonga

Sector Learners Educators

Schools

Public 12 117 015 390 608 24 060 Indepen- dent 538 421 34 482 1 681

Total 12 655 436 425 090 25 741

5

NUMBER OF LEARNERS, EDUCATORS AND SCHOOLS IN THE ORDINARY SCHOOL SECTOR, BY PROVINCE, IN 2014

Source: DBE, EMIS, School Realities, 2014

6

ACCESS

10

5 YEARS OLD ATTENDING EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION BY PROVINCE, 2005-2014

Province 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eastern Cape 68.3 71.1 69.3 81.1 85.9 92.2 90.9 93.1 93.9 91.5

Free State 55.7 59.8 60.5 60.6 86.2 79.9 82.0 86.4 87.6 89.8

Gauteng 60.4 61.6 64.6 61.9 74.7 82.8 87.6 86.0 83.3 90.5

KwaZulu-Natal 49.6 54.2 51.7 58.2 70.4 84.8 78.0 77.1 81.9 87.2

Limpopo 72.7 76.2 71.5 75.0 92.4 96.2 95.1 93.8 96.3 93.0

Mpumalanga 56.1 57.6 63.9 64.8 82.6 73.1 86.4 84.5 82.7 88.6

North West 47.6 50.6 46.5 52.9 67.1 73.6 85.9 89.0 84.0 82.1

Northern Cape

55.0 46.7 59.5 49.6 79.1 78.4 77.3 71.1 85.4 82.4

Western Cape 63.5 64.3 51.6 55.0 78.1 69.8 75.5 73.9 75.4 71.6

National 59.2 61.7 60.4 63.9 78.6 83.6 84.9 84.6 85.3 87.2

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations 11

7 -13 YEAR OLD CHILDREN ATTENDING EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS BY PROVINCE, 2005 – 2014

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations

Province 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eastern Cape 97.9 97.7 97.8 98.3 98.6 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.1 99.4

Free State 98.7 99.1 99.1 98.4 99.1 99.3 99.2 99.5 98.7 98.4

Gauteng 99.0 98.7 98.0 98.7 99.0 99.2 99.1 99.0 99.7 99.3

KwaZulu-Natal 97.9 97.2 98.2 97.9 98.8 98.7 99.0 99.1 99.0 99.2

Limpopo 99.0 99.2 98.8 98.3 99.3 99.2 99.4 99.5 99.5 99.5

Mpumalanga 97.7 97.6 97.9 98.1 98.7 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.2

North West 95.4 96.2 98.0 97.4 98.3 98.0 98.7 98.9 99.2 98.8

Northern Cape 98.5 98.7 99.1 98.4 99.1 99.0 99.0 99.4 99.3 99.9

Western Cape 98.7 99.4 99.5 98.0 99.2 99.7 98.7 99.4 99.0 99.6

Eastern Cape 98.2 98.1 98.3 98.2 98.9 99.1 99.0 99.2 99.3 99.3

13

7 TO 15 YEAR OLD CHILDREN ATTENDING EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS BY PROVINCE, 2005-2014

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations

Province 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eastern Cape 97.4 97.3 97.7 97.4 98.0 98.5 98.5 98.4 98.1 98.9

Free State 97.2 98.7 98.7 98.4 98.7 99.0 98.8 99.2 98.4 98.3

Gauteng 98.8 97.8 97.9 98.7 98.9 98.9 99.3 99.0 99.5 99.2

KwaZulu-Natal 97.5 97.2 97.7 97.9 98.3 98.3 98.7 98.8 98.6 99.1

Limpopo 98.8 99.2 98.6 98.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.2 99.3

Mpumalanga 97.9 97.7 97.9 98.2 98.5 99.1 99.0 99.0 99.2 99.2

North West 95.6 95.4 97.1 97.2 97.6 97.7 98.6 98.8 98.3 98.1

Northern Cape 97.6 97.2 97.4 97.6 98.6 98.1 98.6 98.6 98.9 99.3

Western Cape 98.2 97.8 98.4 97.2 98.4 99.1 98.1 98.2 98.1 98.9

National 97.8 97.6 97.9 97.9 98.5 98.7 98.8 98.8 98.8 99.0

14

14 TO 18 YEAR OLD CHILDREN ATTENDING EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, 2005-2014

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations

Province 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eastern Cape 87.6 88.9 90.2 87.6 87.1 87.7 88.4 89.5 88.6 88.3

Free State 90.1 92.2 93.3 89.6 90.0 89.2 91.0 91.3 90.8 93.8

Gauteng 90.2 86.8 89.1 91.2 92.5 89.9 89.5 90.5 90.1 92.0

KwaZulu-Natal 87.4 89.0 88.9 90.4 87.8 87.2 90.4 90.7 91.5 91.4

Limpopo 92.1 92.9 95.0 92.9 94.6 94.9 95.3 95.8 95.8 95.2

Mpumalanga 91.5 90.7 94.0 91.0 89.6 90.5 91.3 90.3 89.7 91.7

North West 88.4 85.8 84.9 86.0 86.7 85.7 90.2 88.2 88.4 85.9

Northern Cape 85.9 83.0 85.2 82.9 82.4 85.5 85.3 86.2 88.7 84.2

Western Cape 79.8 77.2 81.9 81.2 82.6 83.4 84.9 86.3 85.0 87.1

National 88.3 88.0 89.7 89.2 89.0 88.7 90.1 90.5 90.3 90.7

15

5 YEAR OLD CHILDREN WITH DISABILITIES ATTENDING EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, 2009-2014

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations

Province 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eastern Cape 76.9 90.5 88.4 92.0 95.5 87.8

Free State 81.8 80.9 72.8 81.8 76.6 85.8

Gauteng 76.9 82.9 75.6 82.8 95.8 84.8

KwaZulu-Natal 80.5 78.4 73.0 78.8 75.7 84.7

Limpopo 92.9 94.9 92.3 94.0 93.6 88.7

Mpumalanga 78.1 87.1 82.4 85.2 80.8 70.5

North West 58.5 77.9 83.3 88.4 85.7 83.0

Northern Cape 72.1 80.3 82.3 65.4 81.8 80.1

Western Cape 80.9 63.4 78.7 78.0 67.9 74.1

National 80.4 84.5 82.3 85.2 85.2 83.9

16

7 TO 15 YEAR OLD CHILDREN WITH DISABILITIES ATTENDING EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS BY PROVINCE, 2005-2014

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations

Province 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eastern Cape 79.6 73.8 80.6 65.4 90.5 91.1 86.3 88.9 90.1 94.5

Free State 93.1 84.7 87.7 80.9 92.3 96.8 95.7 94.8 91.1 89.0

Gauteng 89.5 84.3 72.4 95.1 86.4 92.7 92.9 87.2 96.8 92.3

KwaZulu-Natal

70.5 82.9 73.4 68.0 91.2 89.1 93.7 96.1 91.6 94.8

Limpopo 69.5 85.1 74.6 63.2 88.2 93.1 95.5 87.7 86.7 92.4

Mpumalanga 62.3 67.7 57.1 88.6 93.6 95.7 96.9 95.5 92.1 92.2

North West 73.0 65.9 74.6 72.0 83.4 95.2 89.0 96.5 97.7 93.9

Northern Cape

75.0 75.0 71.1 74.1 73.6 92.9 95.8 98.0 90.7 98.5

Western Cape 82.2 78.6 94.6 85.4 97.7 98.6 73.1 87.5 95.6 95.2

National 77.8 78.6 74.6 77.0 89.7 93.2 92.1 92.4 92.5 93.4

17

16 TO 18 YEAR OLD CHILDREN WITH DISABILITIES ATTENDING EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS BY PROVINCE, 2005-2014

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations

Province 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eastern Cape 53.4 46.9 45.7 42.0 41.4 71.0 83.0 40.2 34.5 18.9

Free State 72.0 51.5 60.6 54.8 70.2 65.2 79.4 89.5 88.8 83.5

Gauteng 100.0 95.1 91.6 70.3 75.0 71.3 90.1 74.4 92.1 92.8

KwaZulu-Natal

69.7 34.5 53.4 49.5 39.3 58.6 58.0 69.3 74.2 62.9

Limpopo 32.6 43.8 42.0 40.6 65.9 61.0 83.4 87.5 43.9 19.8

Mpumalanga 62.2 57.1 85.1 51.1 100.0 80.7 96.1 85.7 58.5 30.1

North West 80.5 100.0 82.2 48.9 18.0 77.2 46.2 50.4 78.0 75.1

Northern Cape

79.4 75.2 61.8 44.4 0.0 57.8 100.0 73.8 49.2 100.0

Western Cape

16.8 66.5 59.7 49.1 74.3 79.1 100.0 82.4 87.6 65.5

National 61.4 57.3 64.6 52.8 54.3 68.3 80.7 66.7 70.3 54.1

18

PERCENTAGE AND NUMBER OF FEMALE LEARNERS THAT FELL PREGNANT

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations

Province 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. %

Eastern Cape 8 917 1.0 12 438 1.3 16 446 1.6 14 896 1.5 20 698 3.8 15 870 3.1

Free State 2 477 0.7 2 775 0.8 1 082 0.3 2 425 0.7 4 309 2.2 6 741 3.8

Gauteng 9 656 0.9 18 823 1.6 8 100 0.7 9 052 0.8 9 428 1.3 12 786 2.0

KwaZulu-Natal

16 124 1.1 16 997 1.2 14 428 1.0 18 680 1.3 26 468 3.0 18 533 2.3

Limpopo 14 854 1.7 25 321 2.7 21 016 2.5 11 134 1.3 13 941 2.5 15 818 3.2

Mpumalanga 6 660 1.1 8 088 1.4 5 377 0.9 14 155 2.5 11 854 3.4 11 298 3.8

North West 4 673 1.1 5 664 1.3 2 822 0.6 6 603 1.5 7 359 2.8 4 512 1.9

Northern Cape

778 0.5 1 574 1.1 403 0.3 1 543 1.1 1 173 1.5 1 388 1.9

Western Cape 6 710 1.2 2 951 0.5 1 505 0.3 3 189 0.5 3 811 1.1 7 033 2.1

National 70 848 1.1 94 630 1.4 71 179 1.1 81 678 1.2 99 041 2.5 93 978 2.7

19

PERCENTAGE OF GRADES 1 - 9 LEARNERS BY STATUS OF ACCESS TO LANGUAGE AND MATHEMATICS WORKBOOKS, 2014

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations

Province Language Mathematics Yes No Do not

know Total Yes No Do not

know Total

Eastern Cape 96.8 2.9 0.3 100.0 97.0 2.7 0.3 100.0

Free State 98.8 1.1 0.0 100.0 98.9 1.1 0.0 100.0

Gauteng 95.3 4.5 0.2 100.0 96.2 3.8 0.0 100.0

KwaZulu-Natal

95.4 3.9 0.7 100.0 96.4 2.9 0.7 100.0

Limpopo 98.2 1.7 0.1 100.0 98.6 1.4 0.0 100.0

Mpumalanga 95.7 4.3 0.0 100.0 95.6 4.4 0.0 100.0

North West 95.2 4.6 0.2 100.0 94.9 4.9 0.2 100.0

Northern Cape

95.9 4.0 0.1 100.0 97.9 2.0 0.1 100.0

Western Cape

97.3 2.2 0.5 100.0 98.0 1.6 0.4 100.0

Total 96.3 3.4 0.3 100.0 96.8 2.9 0.3 100.0

20

PERCENTAGE OF LEARNERS ABSENT FROM SCHOOL

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations

Province 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eastern Cape 8.6 26.8 6.2 9.9 6.3 5.5

Free State 10.3 24.4 5.3 8.7 5.4 5.4

Gauteng 8.5 22.0 4.6 7.0 4.5 6.7

KwaZulu-Natal 7.6 42.0 8.2 10.4 7.8 8.7

Limpopo 7.3 36.5 4.8 4.3 6.5 6.6

Mpumalanga 4.4 25.8 5.7 7.2 5.8 6.0

North West 6.9 27.7 8.1 10.0 9.7 8.0

Northern Cape 4.3 21.8 7.5 10.1 7.5 7.6

Western Cape 12.3 18.6 9.5 9.7 7.3 9.8

National 8.0 29.8 6.5 8.5 6.6 7.2

24

PERCENTAGE OF 5 TO 6-YEAR-OLD CHILDREN WALKING TO SCHOOL FOR MORE THAN 30 MINUTES

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations

Province 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eastern Cape 13.1 11.9 9.2 6.4 10.2 11.2

Free State 10.8 6.8 4.6 4.6 3.0 4.6

Gauteng 6.5 2.9 1.2 2.0 8.0 3.4

KwaZulu-Natal 20.6 18.7 20.1 20.0 19.7 19.6

Limpopo 5.0 10.7 6.8 9.6 4.8 6.1

Mpumalanga 9.2 4.9 7.0 5.2 6.3 3.1

North West 7.0 7.6 9.3 9.7 9.6 6.7

Northern Cape 5.3 0.9 2.7 6.3 11.0 2.5

Western Cape 4.3 2.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1

National 10.9 10.3 9.1 9.0 10.0 8.9

25

PERCENTAGE OF 16 TO 18-YEAR-OLD CHILDREN WALKING TO SCHOOL FOR MORE THAN 30 MINUTES

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations

Province 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eastern Cape 20.8 21.5 16.5 22.2 26.8 19.5

Free State 13.3 15.0 14.1 13.4 12.1 14.8

Gauteng 11.8 7.0 7.3 11.2 9.2 10.4

KwaZulu-Natal 33.8 34.7 29.7 30.4 33.1 33.8

Limpopo 21.4 21.5 21.2 19.5 21.1 20.1

Mpumalanga 21.6 13.8 11.4 18.4 14.7 14.6

North West 18.5 19.9 24.6 22.3 21.9 12.2

Northern Cape 7.6 7.3 8.5 8.2 6.3 10.7

Western Cape 8.4 4.8 1.5 2.1 6.4 0.8

National 21.3 20.1 17.9 19.6 21.0 19.1

27

REDRESS AND

EQUITY

29

PERCENTAGE OF LEARNERS BENEFITING FROM THE SCHOOL FEEDING SCHEME

Source: Statistics South Africa, General Household Survey (GHS), DBE own calculations

Province 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Eastern Cape 75.3 82.9 85.3 86.7 88.3

Free State 65.8 75.3 77.0 78.7 78.0

Gauteng 53.8 55.3 55.3 59.8 63.4

KwaZulu-Natal 67.5 76.0 79.2 80.5 79.4

Limpopo 84.7 94.4 94.7 93.5 94.3

Mpumalanga 75.5 84.2 85.9 85.7 88.8

North West 69.6 80.7 83.4 82.8 85.3

Northern Cape 89.3 89.7 88.0 84.7 84.0

Western Cape 66.7 64.0 63.4 66.0 65.0

National 69.9 76.2 77.4 78.7 79.7

30

NO FEE LEARNERS AND NO FEE SCHOOLS IN 2015

PROV No. of No Fee Learners

% No Fee Learners

No. of No Fee Schools

% No Fee Schools

EC 1,725,313 91.3% 5,320 95.8%

FS 543,288 82.8% 1,147 87.8%

GP 1,231,673 63.3% 1,376 66.5%

KZN 1,965,951 69.4% 5,005 84.6%

LP 1,603,765 96.3% 3,838 97.7%

MP 884,993 85.6% 1,631 92.6%

NC 200,287 70.3% 415 75.3%

NW 701,971 89.5% 1,349 89.0%

WC 599,874 58.4% 884 60.6%

SA 9,457,115 78.6% 20,965 87.14%

31

EFFICIENCY

32

PERCENTAGE OF REPEATERS BY GRADE, 2009-2014

Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8 Grade 9 Grade 10 Grade 11 Grade 12 Total 2009 6.9 7.4 7.2 7.1 6.8 6.5 5.0 8.2 10.7 17.1 16.3 8.3 8.8 2010 5.8 8.4 8.9 6.2 7.0 6.6 5.3 6.6 11.3 19.0 18.2 10.6 9.4 2011 6.9 8.3 7.7 8.2 6.0 7.3 6.1 7.6 13.4 21.0 18.1 10.9 10.2 2012 9.0 9.7 9.5 10.7 8.2 7.2 6.5 10.3 15.0 22.1 19.9 8.9 11.5 2013 10.7 9.1 9.7 9.2 9.4 7.6 7.9 8.6 16.2 24.5 21.1 8.9 12.2 2014 9.2 9.0 9.6 7.6 7.8 8.4 6.8 9.8 17.3 21.0 17.7 6.4 11.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

24

DROP-OUT RATES DECLINING BUT QUALITY PROBLEMS MANIFEST IN SECONDARY SCHOOLING

Source: National Income Dynamic Study (NIDS), 2007/08-2011/12 34

NUMBER OF PROGRESSED CANDIDATES

Prov

ince

Ente

red

Wro

te

Inco

mpl

ete

Achi

eved

EASTERN CAPE 12 304 11 705 599 2 625 FREE STATE 8 187 5 105 3 082 2 600 GAUTENG 5 198 4 568 630 2 149 KWAZULU-NATAL 10 633 10 070 563 4 765 LIMPOPO 13 227 13 022 205 3 492 MPUMALANGA 5 228 5 091 137 2 290 NORTH WEST 3 767 3 543 224 2 122 NORTHERN CAPE 2 280 1 963 317 613 WESTERN CAPE 4 847 3 589 1 258 1 404 NATIONAL 65 671 58 656 7 015 22 060

64

% ACHIEVED - NON-PROGRESSED VS TOTAL

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

EASTERN CAPE

FREE STATE

GAUTENG

KWAZULU-NATAL

LIMPOPO

MPUMALANGA

NORTH WEST

NORTHERN CAPE

WESTERN CAPE

NATIONAL

% Achieved Non-Progressed 62.2 87.7 85.9 61.6 71.7 82.1 84.0 77.2 88.0 74.1 % Achieved Total 56.8 81.9 84.3 60.7 65.9 78.6 81.5 69.4 84.7 70.7

% Achieved Non-Progressed % Achieved Total

66

NSC REPEATER CANDIDATES’ PERFORMANCE - 2015

68

Province Total Wrote Total Achieved % Achieved

EASTERN CAPE 6 049 4 038 66.8 FREE STATE 1 1 100.0 GAUTENG 3 3 100.0 KWAZULU-NATAL 372 216 58.1 LIMPOPO 8 434 6 307 74.8 MPUMALANGA 2 513 2 109 83.9 NORTH WEST 41 29 70.7 NORTHERN CAPE 0 WESTERN CAPE 2 1 50.0 NATIONAL 17 415 12 704 72.9

SPECIAL NEEDS EDUCATION (SNE) CANDIDATES (INCL. CONCESSION CANDIDATES) – FULL-TIME 2015

Province Total Wrote

Achieved Bachelors

Achieved Diploma

Achieved H/Cert

Achieved NSC

Achieved Endorsed NSC

Did Not Achieved

Eastern Cape 185 19 61 31 0 19 74 Free State 54 11 25 13 1 83 2 Gauteng 564 207 285 38 0 111 34 KwaZulu-Natal 646 153 229 115 0 1 149 Limpopo 21 3 2 1 0 35 9 Mpumalanga 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 North West 30 7 15 2 0 0 6 Northern Cape 19 4 11 1 1 5 0 Western Cape 166 36 102 12 0 5 16 National 1 691 443 733 213 2 259 290

94

QUALITY

35

THE NUMBER OF CANDIDATES PASSING MATRIC SINCE 1970

48

NUMBER OF CANDIDATES PASSING MATRIC, 1994 - 2015

49

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000 19

94

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Num

ber

PERCENTAGE ENDORSEMENT/BACHELORS, 1994 - 2015

50

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Perc

enta

ge

SCHOOL PERFORMANCE BY QUINTILE - 2015

73

Quintiles 0

- 19.

9%

20 -

39.9

%

40 -

59.9

%

60 -

79.9

%

80 -

100%

Exac

tly 0

%

Exactly 100%

Quintile 1 126 284 418 489 463 6 32

Quintile 2 61 229 405 522 423 4 22

Quintile 3 36 209 334 453 391 4 15

Quintile 4 1 24 63 169 330 0 45

Quintile 5 0 3 31 94 574 0 142

Total 224 749 1 251 1 727 2 181 14 256

DISTRICT PERFORMANCE BY ACHIEVEMENT INTERVAL AND PROVINCE: 2015

Province

Total number

of Districts

2015 Below 50%

50% to 59.9%

60% to 69.9%

70% to 79.9%

80% and above

EC 23 7 8 7 1 0 FS 5 0 0 0 2 3 GP 15 0 0 0 1 14 KZN 12 1 4 6 1 0 LP 5 0 2 2 1 0 MP 4 0 0 0 2 2 NW 4 0 0 0 2 2 NC 5 0 0 2 3 0 WC 8 0 0 0 0 8 Total 81 8 14 17 13 29

85

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