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DCF FY09A FY10A FY11A FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E Terminal Year
Revenue $4,287,130 $4,176,627 $4,662,264 $4,908,195 $5,169,581 $5,447,546 $5,695,045 $5,954,422 $6,226,260
Domestic ( US Markets) $2,910,094 $2,818,032 $3,155,608 $3,313,388 $3,479,058 $3,653,011 $3,835,661 $4,027,444 $4,228,817
Europe $700,882 $699,492 $781,432 $797,061 $813,002 $829,262 $845,847 $862,764 $880,019
Others ( Asia and Japan) $676,154 $659,103 $725,224 $797,746 $877,521 $965,273 $1,013,537 $1,064,214 $1,117,424
% growth (2.58%) 11.63% 5.27% 5.33% 5.38% 4.54% 4.55% 2.50%
EBITDA $645,088 $793,716 $803,103 $834,393 $878,829 $980,558 $1,025,108 $1,071,796 $1,120,727
% margin 15.05% 19.00% 17.23% 17.00% 17.00% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00% 18.00%
EBIT $406,812 $545,470 $629,144 $651,258 $685,941 $777,299 $812,614 $849,624 $888,412
NOPAT $264,428 $354,556 $408,944 $423,318 $445,861 $505,244 $528,199 $552,255 $577,468
Working capital change $128,614 -$334,130 $39,595 $41,684 $43,903 $46,264 $48,366 $50,569 $52,877
Tax % of EBIT 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00% 35.00%
D&A 238,276 248,246 173,959 183,135 192,888 203,260 212,494 222,172 232,315
D&A % of revenue 5.56% 5.94% 3.73% 3.73% 3.73% 3.73% 3.73% 3.73% 3.73%
Tax expense 142,384 190,915 220,200 227,940 240,079 272,055 284,415 297,368 310,944
FCF 262,774 769,202 363,320 555,275 404,767 642,014 492,694 693,620 546,777
Discount factor 1.08 1.16 1.24 1.34 1.44 1.54 1.66 1.78 1.92
NPV of FCF $244,441 $665,615 $292,458 $415,790 $281,944 $416,001 $296,973 $388,914 $285,190
Capex $111,316 $167,730 $179,988 $9,494 $190,079 $20,225 $199,634 $30,238 $210,128
Capex as % of revenues 2.60% 4.02% 3.86% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Terminal value $11,208,933
FCFF $14,496,259
Cash $1,096,710
Net debt $303,000
Equity value $14,193,259
WACC 7.50%
Shares Outstanding 231,300
Firm Value of Motorcycles 13,399,549
Financial Division Book Value (FY12E) $986,539
Growth Rate of Financial Division 4.93%
Financial Division Book Value (FY12E) $1,035,175
Total Value $15,228,435
Price 65.84