6
Page 1 of 6 For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2017, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all informaon contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the informaon in this report or any opinions expressed constutes a solicitaon of the purchase or sale of any securies or commodies. On the following pages, we update the performance figures for the Bespoke Death By AmazonIndi- ces. Since a huge outside day reversal on July 27th earnings, AMZN has been a painful long. Support at the $940 level ($6 below current prices) has been consistent, but the stock has carved out a mul- month head-and-shoulders that should give long entry pause. While the stock has been unable to make new highs, Amazon connues to dominate public conversaon with its search for a second head- quarters given capacity constraints in Seale. Below is an updated chart of the cumulave returns of the Bespoke Death By AmazonIndex versus the S&P 1500. As shown, while the S&P 1500 is just off all-me highs, the Death By AmazonIndex on a market cap weighng is right near mul-year lows. On the following page, we provide an update of the performance of the Bespoke Death By AmazonEqual Weight Index, which weights constuents equally as opposed to by market cap. Because we weight large, more stable stocks like Wal-Mart low- er in that index, its volality is higher and its generally easier to get a feel for overall retail perfor- mance from it. On page three, we have updated two-year performances for each stock in the index, as well as its current weight in the index and daily return correlaon to AMZN. Bespoke publishes the Death By AmazonIndices as a way to track performance of the companies most affected by the rise of AMZN. Companies included must be direct retailers with a limited online presence (or core business based on physical retailing locaons), a member of either the Re- tail industry of the S&P 1500 Index or a member of the S&P Retail Select Index, and rely on third par- ty brands. We view these aributes as the best expression of AMZNs threat to tradional retail. The index is designed as both a performance benchmark and idea generaon tool for our clients. Indices are published monthly with market cap weighngs and equal weighngs. We also discuss our Amazon SurvivorsIndices starng on page three. The Bespoke Death By AmazonIndices Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Index: Cumulative Returns (%) -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Index: +21.3% S&P 1500: +80.1%

Death y Amazon Indices - Bespoke Investment Group · espoke publishes the “Death By Amazon” Indices as a way to track performance of the companies ... GCO Genesco 25.70 511.92

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1 of 6

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2017, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

On the following pages, we update the performance figures for the Bespoke “Death By Amazon” Indi-

ces. Since a huge outside day reversal on July 27th earnings, AMZN has been a painful long. Support at

the $940 level ($6 below current prices) has been consistent, but the stock has carved out a multi-

month head-and-shoulders that should give long entry pause. While the stock has been unable to

make new highs, Amazon continues to dominate public conversation with its search for a second head-

quarters given capacity constraints in Seattle.

Below is an updated chart of the cumulative returns of the Bespoke “Death By Amazon” Index versus

the S&P 1500. As shown, while the S&P 1500 is just off all-time highs, the “Death By Amazon” Index on

a market cap weighting is right near multi-year lows. On the following page, we provide an update of

the performance of the Bespoke “Death By Amazon” Equal Weight Index, which weights constituents

equally as opposed to by market cap. Because we weight large, more stable stocks like Wal-Mart low-

er in that index, its volatility is higher and it’s generally easier to get a feel for overall retail perfor-

mance from it. On page three, we have updated two-year performances for each stock in the index, as

well as its current weight in the index and daily return correlation to AMZN.

Bespoke publishes the “Death By Amazon” Indices as a way to track performance of the companies

most affected by the rise of AMZN. Companies included must be direct retailers with a limited

online presence (or core business based on physical retailing locations), a member of either the Re-

tail industry of the S&P 1500 Index or a member of the S&P Retail Select Index, and rely on third par-

ty brands. We view these attributes as the best expression of AMZN’s threat to traditional retail.

The index is designed as both a performance benchmark and idea generation tool for our clients.

Indices are published monthly with market cap weightings and equal weightings. We also discuss

our “Amazon Survivors” Indices starting on page three.

The Bespoke “Death By Amazon” Indices

Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Index: Cumulative Returns (%)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Index: +21.3%

S&P 1500: +80.1%

Page 2 of 6 B.I.G. Tips Report 9/25/17 BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

Inception 2/6/2012 Inception 2/6/2012

Weighting Market Cap Weighting Equal

Equity Type Equity Type

Constituents 63 Constituents 63

Avg Market Cap $12.0 bn as of 9/25/17 Avg Market Cap $12.0 bn as of 9/25/17

Sector Consumer Discretionary Sector Consumer Discretionary

Industry Group Retail Industry Group Retail

Attributes AttributesConsumer retail, Reliance on

3rd party brands, Limited

online presence

Consumer retail, Reliance on

3rd party brands, Limited

online presence

Standard Equal Weight

Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Indices

Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small

Cap, Micro Cap

Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small

Cap, Micro Cap

Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Equal Weight Index: Cumulative Returns (%)

Outperformance of AMZN vs Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Equal-Weight Index

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Equal Weight Index: +28.6%

S&P 1500: +81.2%

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Page 3 of 6 B.I.G. Tips Report 9/25/17 BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

Standard Index Eql Wgt Index

AAN Aaron's 39.03 2,760.47 0.36% 72.49 91.13 85.31 0.11

ASNA Ascena Retail 2.10 409.58 0.05% -78.74 -60.09 -65.92 0.00

BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond 22.51 3,224.38 0.42% -39.45 -20.81 -26.63 0.04

BBY Best Buy 53.90 16,126.05 2.13% 86.52 105.17 99.34 0.07

BGFV Big 5 Sporting 7.35 160.76 0.02% -41.27 -22.62 -28.45 0.02

BIG Big Lots 49.51 2,101.81 0.28% -5.70 12.94 7.12 0.07

BKE The Buckle 15.95 779.07 0.10% -48.17 -29.53 -35.35 0.02

BKS Barnes & Noble 7.25 526.56 0.07% -36.26 -17.62 -23.44 0.14

BNED Barnes & Noble Ed 6.28 292.13 0.04% -41.27 -22.63 -28.45 0.06

BURL Burlington Stores 89.78 6,192.31 0.82% 8.42 27.07 21.24 0.12

CAB Cabela's 61.47 4,237.10 0.56% 5.10 23.75 17.92 0.14

CAL Caleres 29.62 1,272.65 0.17% -7.17 11.47 5.65 -0.02

CONN Conn's 22.80 711.52 0.09% 168.14 186.79 180.96 0.07

COST Costco Wholesale 161.29 70,740.72 9.32% -1.37 17.28 11.45 0.17

CVS CVS Caremark 79.63 80,949.05 10.67% -20.40 -1.75 -7.58 0.16

DDS Dillard's 57.53 1,669.61 0.22% -16.88 1.77 -4.06 0.00

DG Dollar General 77.66 21,221.29 2.80% -16.45 2.20 -3.63 0.10

DKS Dick's Sporting 26.87 2,938.67 0.39% -55.54 -36.89 -42.72 0.05

DLTR Dollar Tree 84.62 20,041.80 2.64% -21.85 -3.20 -9.03 0.16

DSW DSW 20.50 1,647.16 0.22% -25.79 -7.15 -12.97 0.01

FINL Finish Line 9.73 391.09 0.05% -57.98 -39.33 -45.16 0.03

FIVE Five Below 50.37 2,780.41 0.37% 4.86 23.50 17.68 0.10

FL Foot Locker 33.60 4,166.32 0.55% -51.99 -33.34 -39.17 0.07

FRAN Francesca's 7.01 257.51 0.03% -48.16 -29.51 -35.34 0.12

FRED Fred's 6.81 259.31 0.03% -53.54 -34.90 -40.72 0.07

GCO Genesco 25.70 511.92 0.07% -68.05 -49.41 -55.23 0.02

GME Gamestop 20.01 2,027.16 0.27% -32.26 -13.62 -19.44 0.14

GNC GNC Holdings 9.25 633.33 0.08% -53.94 -35.29 -41.12 0.10

HIBB Hibbett Sports 13.65 280.37 0.04% -71.61 -52.96 -58.79 0.04

HSNI HSN 39.20 2,053.60 0.27% -19.40 -0.75 -6.58 0.08

HVT Haverty Furniture 24.40 519.35 0.07% 20.94 39.58 33.76 0.11

IMKTA Ingles Markets 24.50 496.36 0.07% -33.49 -14.85 -20.67 0.01

JCP J.C. Penney 4.01 1,246.07 0.16% -64.55 -45.91 -51.73 -0.06

JWN Nordstrom 46.88 7,793.32 1.03% -15.69 2.96 -2.87 0.04

KIRK Kirkland's 10.61 169.88 0.02% -29.96 -11.31 -17.14 0.10

KR Kroger 20.15 17,923.87 2.36% -30.07 -11.42 -17.25 0.07

KSS Kohl's 46.07 7,766.47 1.02% -15.25 3.39 -2.43 -0.07

M Macy's 21.53 6,557.15 0.86% -49.10 -30.45 -36.28 -0.01

MIK Michaels 21.24 3,844.15 0.51% -24.62 -5.97 -11.80 0.11

ODP Office Depot 4.37 2,265.44 0.30% 17.14 35.78 29.96 0.05

OLLI Ollie's Bargain 45.80 2,812.68 0.37% 58.21 76.86 71.03 0.05

PSMT PriceSmart 87.60 2,662.82 0.35% -2.65 15.99 10.17 0.17

RAD Rite Aid 2.39 2,517.37 0.33% -70.78 -52.13 -57.96 0.10

ROST Ross Stores 60.89 23,478.70 3.09% -8.61 10.03 4.21 0.15

SBH Sally Beauty 18.95 2,489.53 0.33% -36.07 -17.43 -23.25 -0.04

SCVL Shoe Carnival 21.14 359.80 0.05% -42.42 -23.78 -29.60 0.08

SFM Sporuts 18.75 2,542.07 0.34% 4.91 23.55 17.72 0.06

SFS Smart & Final 7.30 540.35 0.07% -43.00 -24.35 -30.18 0.05

SHLD Sears Holdings 7.11 763.94 0.10% -43.68 -25.04 -30.86 0.03

SMRT Stein Mart 1.28 61.34 0.01% -87.09 -68.45 -74.27 -0.02

SSI Stage Stores 1.91 52.70 0.01% -70.33 -51.68 -57.51 0.04

SVU Supervalu 21.27 815.86 0.11% -41.78 -23.14 -28.96 -0.09

TGT Target 58.99 32,222.21 4.25% -19.66 -1.02 -6.84 0.00

TJX TJ Maxx 72.45 46,098.07 6.08% -10.01 8.63 2.81 0.16

TLRD Tailored Brands 13.56 667.09 0.09% -28.48 -9.83 -15.66 -0.03

TUES Tuesday Morning 2.40 108.35 0.01% -76.67 -58.02 -63.85 0.18

ULTA Ulta Beauty 219.17 13,463.75 1.77% -13.04 5.61 -0.22 0.15

VSI Vitamin Shoppe 5.35 127.28 0.02% -79.15 -60.51 -66.33 0.09

WBA Walgreen 78.41 83,906.27 11.06% -1.46 17.18 11.36 0.23

WMK Weis Markets 42.61 1,146.14 0.15% -13.15 5.49 -0.33 0.06

WMT Wal-Mart 79.53 237,572.15 31.31% 10.18 28.82 23.00 0.09

WSM Williams-Sonoma 46.78 3,981.15 0.52% -18.33 0.32 -5.51 0.11

ZUMZ Zumiez 16.45 415.04 0.05% -30.51 -11.86 -17.69 -0.03

AMZN Amazon 955.10 153,955.05 n/a 27.09 45.73 39.91 n/a

Bespoke "Death By Amazon" Indices Components

Vs Bespoke "Death By Amazon"

Performance (%)

1 Year Return

Correlation

to AMZN

Current

Weight

Market Cap

(mln $)PriceNameTicker

Page 4 of 6 B.I.G. Tips Report 9/25/17 BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

In our Chart of the Day dated 8/22/17 (link), we introduced a new version of our Death By Amazon

indices: the Amazon Survivors Indices. The new indices are meant to capture retail stocks that we

believe stand a good chance of withstanding pressure from Amazon: those with their own brands,

markets where Amazon is not as much of a competitive threat such as auto-related products, or spe-

cialty stores that aren’t categories where Amazon can compete effectively. Below we show the re-

turns versus those of the S&P 1500 since index inception. On page 5, we show index statistics; we

also show the equal-weight version of the index, which has outperformed the market cap weighted

index quite significantly. We also note that while Amazon has outperformed the “Amazon Survivors”

index quite significantly over the past year or so, since mid-summer, the “Amazon Survivors” index

has started to pick up steam. On page 6 we include a full list of index members.

Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Market Cap Index: Cumulative Returns (%)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Index: -6.2%

S&P 1500: +15.1%

Page 5 of 6 B.I.G. Tips Report 9/25/17 BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

Inception 2/6/2012 Inception 2/6/2012

Weighting Market Cap Weighting Equal

Equity Type Equity Type

Constituents 46 Constituents 46

Avg Market Cap $9.7 bn as of 9/25/17 Avg Market Cap $9.7 bn as of 9/25/17

Sector Consumer Discretionary Sector Consumer Discretionary

Industry Group Retail Industry Group Retail

Attributes AttributesSpecialty retail, retail secure

from Amazon competition,

own-brand retail

Specialty retail, retail secure

from Amazon competition,

own-brand retail

Standard Equal Weight

Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small

Cap, Micro Cap

Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small

Cap, Micro Cap

Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Equal Weight Index: Cumulative Returns (%)

Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Equal Weight Index: AMZN Relative Performance (%)

-20

-10

0

10

20

Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Equal Weight Index: +2.5%

S&P 1500: +15.1%

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Page 6 of 6 B.I.G. Tips Report 9/25/17 BespokePremium.com

For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

Standard Index Eql Wgt Index

AAP Advance Auto Parts 95.59 7,060.52 0.78% -39.59 -35.03 -43.89 0.05

ABG Asbury Automotive 59.60 1,241.79 0.14% -3.24 1.32 -7.54 0.02

AEO American Eagle 13.85 2,452.13 0.27% -40.93 -36.37 -45.24 0.03

AN AutoNation 47.36 4,756.80 0.53% -11.17 -6.61 -15.47 0.04

ANF Abercrombie & Fitch 14.26 970.92 0.11% -58.27 -53.71 -62.58 -0.06

AZO AutoZone 574.03 16,090.46 1.78% -34.83 -30.27 -39.13 0.00

CASY Casey's General Stores 107.89 4,088.72 0.45% -22.64 -18.08 -26.94 0.03

CATO Cato 13.01 330.96 0.04% -59.42 -54.86 -63.72 -0.10

CHS Chico's 8.22 1,054.74 0.12% -34.02 -29.46 -38.32 -0.08

CORE Core-Mark 29.94 1,386.91 0.15% -40.65 -36.09 -44.96 0.07

CWH Camping World 38.43 3,431.83 0.38% 77.62 76.56 72.90 -0.03

ETSY Etsy 17.11 2,023.38 0.22% 11.15 15.71 6.85 0.32

EXPR Express 6.65 524.03 0.06% -65.62 -61.06 -69.92 0.00

FTD FTD 13.08 360.29 0.04% -47.40 -42.84 -51.70 0.14

GES Guess? 16.06 1,337.27 0.15% -22.27 -17.71 -26.58 -0.02

GPC Genuine Parts 87.98 12,918.19 1.43% -19.78 -15.22 -24.09 0.02

GPI Group 1 Automotive 69.34 1,446.10 0.16% -4.93 -0.37 -9.23 -0.02

GPS Gap 28.36 11,121.62 1.23% -15.86 -11.29 -20.16 -0.04

GRPN Groupon 4.56 2,535.40 0.28% -27.22 -22.65 -31.52 0.19

HD Home Depot 159.97 188,575.45 20.82% 10.76 15.32 6.45 0.06

HZO MarineMax 16.20 425.39 0.05% -22.15 -17.59 -26.46 0.08

KMX CarMax 74.19 13,495.44 1.49% 8.57 13.13 4.27 0.06

LAD Lithia Motors 116.44 2,913.67 0.32% 27.94 32.50 23.63 0.04

LB L Brands 39.65 11,254.51 1.24% -53.20 -48.64 -57.51 -0.07

LKQ LKQ 34.91 10,782.34 1.19% -4.35 0.21 -8.66 0.15

LL Lumber Liquidators 36.95 1,049.90 0.12% 118.16 122.72 113.85 0.11

LOW Lowe's 78.23 65,150.90 7.19% -2.67 1.90 -6.97 0.07

MNRO Monro 52.35 1,713.11 0.19% -20.55 -15.99 -24.85 -0.01

MUSA Murphy USA 68.00 2,451.53 0.27% -9.64 -5.08 -13.95 0.14

ORLY O'Reilly Automotive 209.59 18,447.42 2.04% -30.90 -26.34 -35.20 -0.06

PAG Penske Automotive 46.15 3,969.84 0.44% -6.70 -2.13 -11.00 0.02

PETS PetMed Express 35.33 727.95 0.08% 99.06 103.62 94.76 0.12

PLCE Children's Place 113.30 1,998.60 0.22% 18.82 23.38 14.52 0.03

POOL Pool 107.68 4,438.93 0.49% 5.07 9.63 0.76 0.07

RCII Rent-A-Center 10.80 575.66 0.06% -6.13 -1.57 -10.43 0.00

RH Restoration Hardware 72.22 1,527.61 0.17% 43.68 48.24 39.38 0.05

SAH Sonic Automotive 19.85 870.65 0.10% -1.00 3.57 -5.30 0.01

SCSS Select Comfort 29.65 1,217.61 0.13% 12.52 17.08 8.21 0.01

SFLY Shutterfly 47.45 1,583.22 0.17% -10.29 -5.73 -14.59 0.12

SIG Signet Jewelers 64.39 3,893.07 0.43% -43.03 -38.46 -47.33 -0.08

TIF Tiffany 87.84 10,937.15 1.21% 29.46 34.02 25.16 0.09

TRIP TripAdvisor 44.37 6,155.76 0.68% -34.24 -29.68 -38.54 0.23

TSCO Tractor Supply 61.12 7,743.66 0.86% -35.72 -31.16 -40.02 -0.02

TTS Tile Shop 14.80 768.47 0.08% -12.74 -8.17 -17.04 0.08

URBN Urban Outfitters 22.87 2,511.85 0.28% -48.22 -43.66 -52.53 -0.06

W Wayfair 74.59 6,502.35 0.72% 75.22 79.78 70.91 0.16

AMZN Amazon 955.10 458,810.48 n/a 26.87 31.43 22.57 n/a

Bespoke "Amazon Survivors" Indices Components

Vs Bespoke "Amazon Survivors"

Performance (%)

1 Year Return

Correlation

to AMZN

Current

Weight

Market Cap

(mm $)PriceNameTicker