December 2015 · 2016. 1. 26. · The Internet % of Buyers. who used an Agent . NAR . FSBOs Must Be Ready to Negotiate. Here is a list of some of the people with . whom you must be

DECEMBER 2015

Foot Traffic

NAR 12/2015

indicator of future sales

Chart1

January 2015

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

Series 1

59.3

51

61

61

59

68.8

69

72.4

53.7

57.1

Sheet1

Series 1

January 201559.3

February51

March61

April61

May59

June68.8

July69

August72.4

September53.7

October57.1

NAR 11/2015

2015 Inventory Levels Compared to last year

HOUSINGSUPPLY

Chart1

Jan

Feb

March

April

May

June

July

August

Sept

Oct

%

-0.50%

-0.50%

2%

-0.90%

0.40%

-4.7%

-1.7%

-3.1%

-0.005

-0.005

0.02

-0.009

0.018

0.004

-0.047

-0.017

-0.031

-0.045

Sheet1

%

Jan-0.5%

Feb-0.5%

March2.0%

April-0.9%

May1.8%

June0.4%

July-4.7%

August-1.7%

Sept-3.1%

Oct-4.5%

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 12/2015

2015

Chart1

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Series 1

4.9

4.6

4.7

4.6

5.2

5.1

5

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.8

Sheet1

Series 1

Jan4.6

Feb4.7

Mar4.6

Apr5.2

May5.1

Jun5.0

Jul4.8

Aug5.1

Sep4.8

Oct4.8

Percentage of Distressed Property

Sales

35%

6%9%

NAR 12/2015

January 2012 - Today

Chart1

Jan 2012

0.34

0.29

0.28

0.25

0.25

0.24

0.22

0.24

0.24

0.22

0.24

Jan 2013

0.25

0.21

0.18

0.18

0.15

0.15

0.12

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

Jan 2014

0.16

0.14

0.15

0.11

0.11

0.09

0.08

0.1

0.09

0.09

0.11

Jan 2015

0.11

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.08

0.07

0.07

0.07

October

Series 1

0.35

0.23

0.15

0.11

0.06

Sheet1

Series 1

Jan 201235%

34%

29%

28%

25%

25%

24%

22%

24%

24%

22%

24%

Jan 201323%

25%

21%

18%

18%

15%

15%

12%

14%

14%

14%

14%

Jan 201415%

16%

14%

15%

11%

11%

9%

8%

10%

9%

9%

11%

Jan 201511%

11%

10%

10%

10%

8%

7%

7%

7%

October6%

FHFA

Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Price by Region

FHFA

Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Price by State

FHFA

Quarter-Over-Quarter Percent Change in Price by State

Inventories of homes available for sale remain lean...The imbalance between housing demand and supply continues to boost prices.We expect house price appreciation to average 5.4 percent in 2015 and to moderate a bit to 4.3 percent in 2016, still well above long-run house price growth.

Freddie Mac

CoreLogic 12/2015

Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price by State

Re-Up your listings that are

about to Expire

List EVERY expired listing in January

30%

60%

75%90%

10%The percentage of

potential buyers who will look for property

+15%

-10%

+10%

Market Value

-15%

Impact of price on visibility

NAR from Move Sales, Inc.

eGuides Available

The supply of listings increases substantially after the new year (including new construction) which lowers the demand for your house.

The #1 reason to not wait until spring…

Number of annual single-family starts…

Builder Magazine

Chart1

Early 2000s

2006

2009

Today

Projected 2016

Series 1

1.3M

1.7M

350K

740K

1M+

1.2M

1300000

1700000

350000

740000

1000000

Sheet1

Series 1

Early 2000s1,300,000

20061,700,000

2009350,000

Today740,000

Projected 20161,000,000

Projected 20171,200,000

To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

Inventory Levels the first five months of

2015

NAR

Chart1

January

February

March

April

May

Series 1

1860000

1900000

2010000

2220000

2280000

Sheet1

Series 1

January1,860,000

February1,900,000

March2,010,000

April2,220,000

May2,280,000


Have one of these every morning for breakfast…

Stefan Swanepoel

www.dangerreport.com

Great Resource

The percentage of homes selling as a FSBO hasdecreased to 8%, the lowest number recorded since 1981.

FSBOs as a Percentage of all Home Sales

Chart1

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Series 1

19

17

15

18

16

13

14

14

13

12

12

13

11

9

10

9

9

9

8

Sheet1

Series 1Series 2Series 3

1991192.42

1993174.42

1995151.83

1997182.85

199916

200113

200314

200414

200513

200612

200712

200813

200911

20109

201110

20129

20139

20149

20158

By FSBO By AGENT

Typical Sold PriceFSBO vs. Agent

Chart1

FSBOs where buyer knew seller

All FSBOs

Homes Sold by an Agent

Series 1

$152K

$210K

$249K

151900

210000

249000

Sheet1

Series 1

FSBOs where buyer knew seller$151,900

All FSBOs$210,000

Homes Sold by an Agent$249,000


Where Buyers Find the Home They Purchase Over the Last 11 Yearsby percentage

Newspapers

Yard Signs

The Internet

Chart1

200420042004

200520052005

200620062006

200720072007

200820082008

200920092009

201020102010

201120112011

201220122012

201320132013

201420142014

201520152015

Internet

Yard Sign

Newspaper

16

16

5

24

15

5

24

15

5

29

14

3

32

15

3

36

12

3

37

11

2

40

11

2

42

10

1

43

9

1

43

9

1

44

9

1

Sheet1

InternetYard SignNewspaper

200416165

200524155

200624155

200729143

200832153

200936123

201037112

201140112

201242101

20134391

20144391

20154491


% of Buyerswho used an Agent

NAR

Chart1

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Buyers

0.75

0.77

0.77

0.77

0.79

0.81

0.77

0.83

0.89

0.89

0.88

0.88

0.88

Sheet1

BuyersSellers

200375%83%

200477%82%

200577%85%

200677%84%

200779%85%

200881%84%

200977%85%

201083%88%

201189%87%

201289%88%

201388%88%

201488%

201588%


FSBOs Must Be Ready to NegotiateHere is a list of some of the people with whom you must be prepared to negotiate:

• The buyer • The buyer’s agent • The buyer’s attorney • The home inspection company • The termite company • The buyer’s lender • The appraiser • The title company • The town or municipality • The buyer’s buyer • Your bank (in the case of a short sale)

from May 2011 until Today

HPSI

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index(HPSI)

The HPSI distills results from Fannie Mae’s consumer-focused National Housing Survey into a single, monthly, predictive indicator.

Fannie Mae

Chart1

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Series 1

60

62.5

60.3

61

60

59.3

60.2

61.2

61.7

63.5

66.2

66.3

66.2

68.2

69.3

68.5

69.5

68

71.8

72.3

71.7

72.8

73.5

73.7

74.2

77.3

82.2

79.3

77.7

78.3

78.3

72.5

72.8

72.7

76.5

75

77.7

82.7

81.5

79.8

79

75.5

80.2

82.5

81

81.3

82.8

81.5

81.7

82.3

84.3

84.7

81.3

80.8

83.8

83.2

Sheet1

Series 1Series 2

Mar-1160.012

Apr-1162.512

May-1160.312

Jun-1161.021

Jul-1160.028

Aug-1159.3

Sep-1160.2

Oct-1161.2

Nov-1161.7

Dec-1163.5

Jan-1266.2

Feb-1266.3

Mar-1266.2

Apr-1268.2

May-1269.3

Jun-1268.5

Jul-1269.5

Aug-1268.0

Sep-1271.8

Oct-1272.3

Nov-1271.7

Dec-1272.8

Jan-1373.5

Feb-1373.7

Mar-1374.2

Apr-1377.3

May-1382.2

Jun-1379.3

Jul-1377.7

Aug-1378.3

Sep-1378.3

Oct-1372.5

Nov-1372.8

Dec-1372.7

Jan-1476.5

Feb-1475.0

Mar-1477.7

Apr-1482.7

May-1481.5

Jun-1479.8

Jul-1479.0

Aug-1475.5

Sep-1480.2

Oct-1482.5

Nov-1481.0

Dec-1481.3

Jan-1582.8

Feb-1581.5

Mar-1581.7

Apr-1582.3

May-1584.3

Jun-1584.7

Jul-1581.3

Aug-1580.8

Sep-1583.8

Oct-1583.2


Quicken Loans

Appraiser home value opinions compared to homeowner estimates

2015

Chart1

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

%

1.43

0.18

-0.13

-0.4

-0.69

-1.15

-1.4

-2.33

-2.65

-2

Sheet1

%

January1.43

February0.18

March-0.13

April-0.4

May-0.69

June-1.15

July-1.4

August-2.33

September-2.65

October-2


…according to the First-Time Buyer Mortgage Share Index by AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk

56% of all buyers were first time buyers this monthAEI’s International Center on Housing Risk

First Time Home Buyers

AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk

Number of primary owner-occupied, first-time buyerpurchase mortgages

21% Increase

Chart1

October 2014

October 2015

Series 1

119K

144K

119000

144000

Sheet1

Series 1

October 2014119,000

October 2015144,000


Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association

Mortgage Credit Availability

Chart1

April 2013

108.9

109.8

112.3

111.5

110.7

111.5

110.2

110.9

Jan 2014

113.5

114

113.8

115.1

115.8

116.4

116.1

116.1

113.4

114.6

115.7

Jan 2015

118.6

121.4

122

122.6

122

125.5

126.1

126.5

October

Series 1

108.6

113

117.8

128.4

Sheet1

Series 1

April 2013108.6

108.9

109.8

112.3

111.5

110.7

111.5

110.2

110.9

Jan 2014113

113.5

114

113.8

115.1

115.8

116.4

116.1

116.1

113.4

114.6

115.7

Jan 2015117.8

118.6

121.4

122

122.6

122

125.5

126.1

126.5

October128.4

FICO Score Requirements begin to inch downward

All closed loans as per Ellie Mae

2015

Chart1

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

Series 1

731

732

731

729

730

727

725

724

723

722

Sheet1

Series 1Series 2Series 3

January7312.42

February7324.42

March7311.83

April7292.85

May730

June727

July725

August724

September723

October722

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages

Freddie Mac Actual Rates

January 2013 – December 2015

Freddie Mac 12/2015

Chart1

41277

41284

41291

41298

41305

41312

41319

41326

41333

41340

41347

41354

41361

41368

41375

41382

41389

41396

41403

41410

41417

41424

41431

41438

41445

41452

41459

41466

41473

41480

41487

41494

41501

41508

41515

41522

41529

41536

41543

41550

41557

41564

41571

41578

41585

41592

41599

41606

41613

41620

41627

41634

41641

41648

41655

41662

41669

41676

41683

41690

41697

41704

41711

41718

41725

41732

41739

41746

41753

41760

41767

41774

41781

41788

41795

41802

41809

41816

41823

41830

41837

41844

41851

41858

41865

41872

41879

41886

41893

41900

41907

41914

41921

41928

41935

41942

41949

41956

41963

41970

41977

41984

41991

41998

42005

42012

42019

42026

42033

42040

42047

42054

42061

42068

42075

42082

42089

42096

42103

42110

42117

42124

42131

42138

42145

42152

42159

42166

42173

42180

42187

42194

42201

42208

42215

42222

42229

42236

42243

42250

42257

42264

42271

42278

42285

42292

42299

42306

42313

42320

42327

42334

Series 1

3.34

3.4

3.38

3.42

3.53

3.53

3.53

3.56

3.51

3.52

3.63

3.53

3.57

3.54

3.43

3.41

3.4

3.35

3.42

3.51

3.59

3.81

3.91

3.98

3.93

4.46

4.29

4.51

4.37

4.31

4.39

4.4

4.4

4.58

4.51

4.57

4.57

4.5

4.32

4.22

4.23

4.28

4.13

4.1

4.16

4.35

4.22

4.29

4.46

4.42

4.47

4.48

4.53

4.51

4.41

4.39

4.32

4.23

4.28

4.33

4.37

4.28

4.37

4.32

4.4

4.41

4.34

4.27

4.33

4.29

4.21

4.2

4.14

4.12

4.14

4.2

4.17

4.14

4.12

4.15

4.13

4.13

4.12

4.14

4.12

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.12

4.23

4.2

4.19

4.12

3.97

3.92

3.98

4.02

4.01

3.99

3.97

3.89

3.93

3.8

3.83

3.87

3.73

3.66

3.63

3.66

3.59

3.69

3.76

3.8

3.75

3.86

3.78

3.69

3.7

3.66

3.67

3.65

3.68

3.8

3.85

3.84

3.87

3.87

4.04

4

4.02

4.08

4.04

4.09

4.04

3.98

3.91

3.94

3.93

3.84

3.89

3.9

3.91

3.86

3.85

3.76

3.82

3.79

3.76

3.87

3.98

3.97

3.95

Sheet1

Series 1

1/3/133.34

1/10/133.4

1/17/133.38

1/24/133.42

1/31/133.53

2/7/133.53

2/14/133.53

2/21/133.56

2/28/133.51

3/7/133.52

3/14/133.63

3/21/133.53

3/28/133.57

4/4/133.54

4/11/133.43

4/18/133.41

4/25/133.4

5/2/133.35

5/9/133.42

5/16/133.51

5/23/133.59

5/30/133.81

6/6/133.91

6/13/133.98

6/20/133.93

6/27/134.46

7/4/134.29

7/11/134.51

7/18/134.37

7/25/134.31

8/1/134.39

8/8/134.4

8/15/134.4

8/22/134.58

8/29/134.51

9/5/134.57

9/12/134.57

9/19/134.5

9/26/134.32

10/3/134.22

10/10/134.23

10/17/134.28

10/24/134.13

10/31/134.1

11/7/134.16

11/14/134.35

11/21/134.22

11/28/134.29

12/5/134.46

12/12/134.42

12/19/134.47

12/26/134.48

1/2/144.53

1/9/144.51

1/16/144.41

1/23/144.39

1/30/144.32

2/6/144.23

2/13/144.28

2/20/144.33

2/27/144.37

3/6/144.28

3/13/144.37

3/20/144.32

3/27/144.4

4/3/144.41

4/10/144.34

4/17/144.27

4/24/144.33

5/1/144.29

5/8/144.21

5/15/144.2

5/22/144.14

5/29/144.12

6/5/144.14

6/12/144.2

6/19/144.17

6/26/144.14

7/3/144.12

7/10/144.15

7/17/144.13

7/24/144.13

7/31/144.12

8/7/144.14

8/14/144.12

8/21/144.1

8/28/144.1

9/4/144.1

9/11/144.12

9/18/144.23

9/25/144.2

10/2/144.19

10/9/144.12

10/16/143.97

10/23/143.92

10/30/143.98

11/6/144.02

11/13/144.01

11/20/143.99

11/27/143.97

12/4/143.89

12/11/143.93

12/18/143.8

12/25/143.83

1/1/153.87

1/8/153.73

1/15/153.66

1/22/153.63

1/29/153.66

2/5/153.59

2/12/153.69

2/19/153.76

2/26/153.8

3/5/153.75

3/12/153.86

3/19/153.78

3/26/153.69

4/2/153.7

4/9/153.66

4/16/153.67

4/23/153.65

4/30/153.68

5/7/153.8

5/14/153.85

5/21/153.84

5/28/153.87

6/4/153.87

6/11/154.04

6/18/154

6/25/154.02

7/2/154.08

7/9/154.04

7/16/154.09

7/23/154.04

7/30/153.98

8/6/153.91

8/13/153.94

8/20/153.93

8/27/153.84

9/3/153.89

9/10/153.9

9/17/153.91

9/24/153.86

10/1/153.85

10/8/153.76

10/15/153.82

10/22/153.79

10/29/153.76

11/5/153.87

11/12/153.98

11/19/153.97

11/26/153.95

Freddie Mac 12/2015

Freddie Mac Rates April – December 2015

30 Year MortgagesFixed Rate

Chart1

42096

42103

42110

42117

42124

42131

42138

42145

42152

42159

42166

42173

42180

42187

42194

42201

42208

42215

42222

42229

42236

42243

42250

42257

42264

42271

42278

42285

42292

42299

42306

42313

42320

42327

42334

Series 1

3.7

3.66

3.67

3.65

3.68

3.8

3.85

3.84

3.87

3.87

4.04

4

4.02

4.08

4.04

4.09

4.04

3.98

3.91

3.94

3.93

3.84

3.89

3.9

3.91

3.86

3.85

3.76

3.82

3.79

3.76

3.87

3.98

3.97

3.95

Sheet1

Series 1

4/2/153.7

4/9/153.66

4/16/153.67

4/23/153.65

4/30/153.68

5/7/153.8

5/14/153.85

5/21/153.84

5/28/153.87

6/4/153.87

6/11/154.04

6/18/154

6/25/154.02

7/2/154.08

7/9/154.04

7/16/154.09

7/23/154.04

7/30/153.98

8/6/153.91

8/13/153.94

8/20/153.93

8/27/153.84

9/3/153.89

9/10/153.9

9/17/153.91

9/24/153.86

10/1/153.85

10/8/153.76

10/15/153.82

10/22/153.79

10/29/153.76

11/5/153.87

11/12/153.98

11/19/153.97

11/26/153.95

Quarter Fannie MaeFreddie

Mac MBA NARAverage

of all four

2016 1Q 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.05%

2016 2Q 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.23%

2016 3Q 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.4%

2016 4Q 4.1 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.6%

Mortgage Rate Projections

12/2015

Where Are They Going Next Year?

2016 Q1

2016 Q2

2016 Q3

2016 Q4

Where Have They Been This Year?

Freddie Mac

Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate

2016 Q1

Chart1

2015 3Q

2015 4Q

2016 1Q

2016 2Q

Series 1

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

Sheet1

Series 1

2015 3Q4

2015 4Q4.2

2016 1Q4.4

2016 2Q4.6

Chart1

42005

42012

42019

42026

42033

42040

42047

42054

42061

42068

42075

42082

42089

42096

42103

42110

42117

42124

42131

42138

42145

42152

42159

42166

42173

42180

42187

42194

42201

42208

42215

42222

42229

42236

42243

42250

42257

42264

42271

42278

42285

42292

42299

42306

42313

42320

42327

42334

Series 1

3.87

3.73

3.66

3.63

3.66

3.59

3.69

3.76

3.8

3.75

3.86

3.78

3.69

3.7

3.66

3.67

3.65

3.68

3.8

3.85

3.84

3.87

3.87

4.04

4

4.08

4.08

4.04

4.09

4.04

3.98

3.91

3.94

3.93

3.84

3.89

3.9

3.91

3.86

3.85

3.76

3.82

3.79

3.76

3.87

3.98

3.97

3.95

Sheet1

Series 1

1/1/153.87

1/8/153.73

1/15/153.66

1/22/153.63

1/29/153.66

2/5/153.59

2/12/153.69

2/19/153.76

2/26/153.8

3/5/153.75

3/12/153.86

3/19/153.78

3/26/153.69

4/2/153.7

4/9/153.66

4/16/153.67

4/23/153.65

4/30/153.68

5/7/153.8

5/14/153.85

5/21/153.84

5/28/153.87

6/4/153.87

6/11/154.04

6/18/154

6/25/154.08

7/2/154.08

7/9/154.04

7/16/154.09

7/23/154.04

7/30/153.98

8/6/153.91

8/13/153.94

8/20/153.93

8/27/153.84

9/3/153.89

9/10/153.9

9/17/153.91

9/24/153.86

10/1/153.85

10/8/153.76

10/15/153.82

10/22/153.79

10/29/153.76

11/5/153.87

11/12/153.98

11/19/153.97

11/26/153.95

Home Prices

S&P Case Shiller 12/2015

Year-Over-Year

PRICECHANGES

Case Shiller

Chart1

June 2012

0.011

0.02

0.036

0.043

0.055

0.068

January 2013

0.093

0.102

0.121

0.122

0.121

0.124

0.128

0.133

0.136

0.137

0.136

January 2014

0.129

0.124

0.108

0.093

0.081

0.067

0.056

0.048

0.045

0.043

0.044

Jan 2015

0.05

0.05

0.049

0.049

0.05

0.05

0.047

September

Year-over-Year Change in Prices

0.006

0.081

0.132

0.046

0.055

Sheet1


June 20120.6%

1.1%

2.0%

3.6%

4.3%

5.5%

6.8%

January 20138.1%

9.3%

10.2%

12.1%

12.2%

12.1%

12.4%

12.8%

13.3%

13.6%

13.7%

13.6%

January 201413.2%

12.9%

12.4%

10.8%

9.3%

8.1%

6.7%

5.6%

4.8%

4.5%

4.3%

4.4%

Jan 20154.6%

5.0%

5.0%

4.9%

4.9%

5.0%

5.0%

4.7%

September5.5%

S&P Case Shiller 12/2015

Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES20 City Composite

Case Shiller

Chart1

Jan 2014

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 2015

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep


4.8%

4.3%

4.5%

4.6%

5.0%

4.7%

5.5%

0.132

0.129

0.124

0.108

0.093

0.081

0.067

0.056

0.048

0.045

0.043

0.044

0.046

0.05

0.05

0.049

0.049

0.05

0.05

0.047

0.055

Sheet1


Jan 201413.2%

Feb12.9%

Mar12.4%

Apr10.8%

May9.3%

Jun8.1%

Jul6.7%

Aug5.6%

Sep4.8%

Oct4.5%

Nov4.3%

Dec4.4%

Jan 20154.6%

Feb5.0%

Mar5.0%

Apr4.9%

May4.9%

Jun5.0%

Jul5.0%

Aug4.7%

Sep5.5%

Y-O-Y by region

EXISTING Home Prices

NAR 12/2015

Chart1

U.S.

South

West

Northeast

Midwest

Series 1

5.8%

6.2%

8%

1.3%

5.7%

0.058

0.062

0.08

0.013

0.057

Sheet1

Series 1

U.S.5.8%

South6.2%

West8.0%West0.064

Northeast1.3%Midwest0.13

Midwest5.7%South0.036


EXISTINGHome Sales

Since January 2012

NAR 12/2015

Chart1

Jan 2012

4520000

4460000

4530000

4590000

4410000

4600000

4840000

4780000

4830000

4960000

4900000

Jan 2013

4950000

4940000

4970000

5140000

5060000

5390000

5390000

5290000

5120000

4820000

4870000

Jan 2014

4600000

4590000

4660000

4910000

5030000

5140000

5050000

5180000

5250000

4930000

5070000

Jan 2015

4880000

5210000

5090000

5320000

5480000

5580000

5300000

5550000

October

Series 1

4510000

4940000

4620000

4820000

5360000

Sheet1

Series 1

Jan 20124,510,000

4,520,000

4,460,000

4,530,000

4,590,000

4,410,000

4,600,000

4,840,000

4,780,000

4,830,000

4,960,000

4,900,000

Jan 20134,940,000

4,950,000

4,940,000

4,970,000

5,140,000

5,060,000

5,390,000

5,390,000

5,290,000

5,120,000

4,820,000

4,870,000

Jan 20144,620,000

4,600,000

4,590,000

4,660,000

4,910,000

5,030,000

5,140,000

5,050,000

5,180,000

5,250,000

4,930,000

5,070,000

Jan 20154,820,000

4,880,000

5,210,000

5,090,000

5,320,000

5,480,000

5,580,000

5,300,000

5,550,000

October5,360,000

EXISTINGHome Sales

Since January 2014

NAR 12/2015

Chart1

Jan 2014

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 2015

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

October

Series 1

4620000

4600000

4590000

4660000

4910000

5030000

5140000

5050000

5180000

5250000

4930000

5070000

4820000

4890000

5190000

5090000

5320000

5480000

5580000

5300000

5550000

5360000

Sheet1

Series 1

Jan 20144,620,000

Feb4,600,000

Mar4,590,000

Apr4,660,000

May4,910,000

Jun5,030,000

July5,140,000

Aug5,050,000

Sept5,180,000

Oct5,250,000

Nov4,930,000

Dec5,070,000

Jan 20154,820,000

Feb4,890,000

Mar5,190,000

Apr5,090,000

May5,320,000

Jun5,480,000

Jul5,580,000

Aug5,300,000

Sep5,550,000

October5,360,000

Y-O-Y by regionEXISTING Home Sales

NAR 11/2015

Chart1

U.S.

Northeast

South

Midwest

West

Series 1

8.6%

.5%

8.3%

2.7%

0.039

0.086

0.005

0.083

0.027

Sheet1

Series 1

U.S.3.9%

Northeast8.6%

South0.5%West0.064

Midwest8.3%Midwest0.13

West2.7%South0.036


% Change in Sales from last yearby Price Range

NAR 12/2015

Chart1

$0-100K

$100-250K

$250-500K

$500-750K

$750K-1M

$1M+

%

.8%

12.8%

11.1%

12.9%

2.1%

-0.091

0.008

0.128

0.111

0.129

0.021

Sheet1

%

$0-100K-9.1%

$100-250K0.8%

$250-500K12.8%

$500-750K11.1%

$750K-1M12.9%

$1M+2.1%


New Home Sales% of sales by price range

Chart1

Under $150K

$150-$199K

$200-$299K

$300-$399K

$400-$499K

$500-$749K

Over $750K

Column1

0.05

0.15

0.34

0.21

0.1

0.08

0.07

Sheet1

Column1

Under $150K5%

$150-$199K15%

$200-$299K34%

$300-$399K21%

$400-$499K10%

$500-$749K8%

Over $750K7%

New Home Sales Annualizedin thousands

Chart1

Jun-14

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-15

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Column1

408

403

454

459

472

449

495

521

545

485

508

513

466

522

552

468

495

Sheet1

Column1

Jun-14408

Jul403

Aug454

Sep459

Oct472

Nov449

Dec495

Jan-15521

Feb545

Mar485

Apr508

May513

Jun466

Jul522

Aug552

Sept468

Oct495

100 = Historically Healthy Level

PENDING Home Salessince 2012

NAR 12/2015

Chart1

January 2012

96.6345105627

98.82151027

95.5249637759

100.1966054194

100.0200268269

102.6317368513

101.8134295223

102.8090451717

103.7771729578

103.3187353492

101.3

January 2013

104.1

105.7

105.2

111.3

110.9

109.4

107.6

102.7

101.5

101.2

94.9

January 2014

94.2

97.4

97.8

101.9

101.8

103.2

103

103.8

103.8

104

102.5

January 2015

107.4

108.7

111.6

112.6

110.4

110.9

109.3

107.5

107.7

Series 1

96.6859743435

105.2

94.7

103.7

Sheet1

Series 1

January 201296.7

96.6

98.8

95.5

100.2

100.0

102.6

101.8

102.8

103.8

103.3

101.3

January 2013105.2

104.1

105.7

105.2

111.3

110.9

109.4

107.6

102.7

101.5

101.2

94.9

January 201494.7

94.2

97.4

97.8

101.9

101.8

103.2

103.0

103.8

103.8

104.0

102.5

January 2015103.7

107.4

108.7

111.6

112.6

110.4

110.9

109.3

107.5

107.7

100 = Historically Healthy Level

PENDINGHome Sales

since 2014

NAR 12/2015

Chart1

January 2014

94.2

97.4

97.8

101.9

101.8

103.2

103

103.8

103.8

104

102.5

January 2015

107.4

108.7

111.6

112.6

110.4

110.9

109.3

107.5

October

Series 1

94.7

103.7

107.7

Sheet1

Series 1

January 201494.7

94.2

97.4

97.8

101.9

101.8

103.2

103.0

103.8

103.8

104.0

102.5

January 2015103.7

107.4

108.7

111.6

112.6

110.4

110.9

109.3

107.5

October107.7

PENDING Home SalesYear-over-Year by region

-.3%

NAR 12/2015

Chart1

U.S.

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

Series 1

3.9

6.8%

3.3%

10.4%

0.039

0.068

0.033

-0.003

0.104

Sheet1

Series 1

U.S.3.9%

Northeast6.8%

Midwest3.3%

South-0.3%

West10.4%


13

Year-over-Year Inventory Levels

NAR 12/2015

Chart1

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

%

-0.24

-0.208

-0.168

-0.14

-0.13

-0.076

-0.05

-0.062

0.018

0.009

0.05

0.016

0.073

0.053

0.032

0.065

0.06

0.055

0.058

0.045

0.06

0.052

0.05

-0.005

-0.005

-0.005

0.02

-0.009

0.018

0.004

-0.047

-0.017

-0.031

-0.045

Sheet1

%

Jan-24%

Feb-20.8%

Mar-16.8%

Apr-14%

May-13%

June-7.6%

July-5%

Aug-6.2%

Sept1.8%

Oct0.9%

Nov5.0%

Dec1.6%

Jan7.3%

Feb5.3%

Mar3.2%

Apr6.5%

May6%

Jun5.5%

Jul5.8%

Aug4.5%

Sep6%

Oct5.2%

Nov5%

Dec-0.50%

Jan-0.50%

Feb-0.50%

Mar2%

Apr-0.90%

May1.80%

Jun0.40%

Jul-4.70%

Aug-1.70%

Sep-3.10%

Oct-4.50%


2011 - Today

NAR 12/2015

Chart1

January 2011

8.6

8.3

9

9.1

9.2

9.5

8.4

8.3

7.7

7

6.2

January 2012

6.4

6.2

6.5

6.4

6.5

6.4

6

5.6

5.4

4.8

4.4

January 2013

4.7

4.6

5.2

5

5.1

5.1

4.9

5

4.9

5.1

4.6

January 2014

5

5.2

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.3

5.1

5.1

4.4

January 2015

4.7

4.6

5.2

5.1

5

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.8

Series 1

7.5

6

4.3

4.9

4.6

Sheet1

Series 1

January 20117.5

8.6

8.3

9.0

9.1

9.2

9.5

8.4

8.3

7.7

7.0

6.2

January 20126.0

6.4

6.2

6.5

6.4

6.5

6.4

6.0

5.6

5.4

4.8

4.4

January 20134.3

4.7

4.6

5.2

5.0

5.1

5.1

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.1

4.6

January 20144.9

5.0

5.2

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.3

5.1

5.1

4.4

January 20154.6

4.7

4.6

5.2

5.1

5.0

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.8

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALElast 2 years

NAR 12/2015

Chart1

Nov

Dec

Jan '14

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-15

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Series 1

5.1

4.6

4.9

5

5.2

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.3

5.1

5.1

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.6

5.2

5.1

5

4.9

5.1

4.8

4.8

Sheet1

Series 1

Nov5.1

Dec4.6

Jan '144.9

Feb5.0

Mar5.2

Apr5.7

May5.5

Jun5.5

Jul5.5

Aug5.5

Sep5.3

Oct5.1

Nov5.1

Dec4.4

Jan-154.6

Feb4.7

Mar4.6

Apr5.2

May5.1

Jun5.0

July4.9

Aug5.1

Sep4.8

Oct4.8


NAR 12/2015

last 12 months

Chart1

Nov

Dec

Jan-15

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Series 1

5.1

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.6

5.2

5.1

5

4.9

5.1

4.8

4.8

Sheet1

Series 1

Nov5.1

Dec4.4

Jan-154.6

Feb4.7

Mar4.6

Apr5.2

May5.1

Jun5.0

Jul4.9

Aug5.1

Sep4.8

Oct4.8

New Home Inventory months supply

Chart1

June 2014

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

January 2015

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Column1

5.8

6.1

5.4

5.5

5.3

5.6

5.1

4.8

4.5

5.1

4.9

4.9

5.5

4.9

4.7

5.8

5.5

Sheet1

Column1

June 20145.8

Jul6.1

Aug5.4

Sep5.5

Oct5.3

Nov5.6

Dec5.1

January 20154.8

Feb4.5

Mar5.1

Apr4.9

May4.9

Jun5.5

Jul4.9

Aug4.7

Sep5.8

Oct5.5

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

4-7Foot Traffic, Housing Supply, 2015 Inventory, Distressed Property Sales

http://www.realtor.org

9-11FHFA Year-Over-Year, Regional & State, Quarter-Over-Quarter

http://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-Price-Index-(HPI).aspx

12 Freddie Mac Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/nov_2015_public_outlook.pdf

13 CoreLogic Forecasted Price http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx#

16 Impact of Price on Visibility http://infocentral.blogs.realtor.org/2015/03/12/graphics-for-home-sellers/#sf7996259

19 Single Family Housing Starts http://www.builderonline.com/money/economics/home-production-to-surpass-1-million-next-year-12-million-in-2017-says-nahb_o

20 Inventory Levels 2015 http://www.realtor.org/topics/existing-home-sales

23-24 D.A.N.G.E.R. Report http://www.dangerreport.com

25, 26-29

2015 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers, FSBO: Sales, Price, Where Buyers Find Their Home, % who use an Agent

http://www.realtor.org/reports/highlights-from-the-2015-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers

32 Fannie Mae HPSI http://fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/corporate-news/2015/6297.html

33 Gap in Appraisal Values http://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2015/10/13/overvalued-eighth-straight-month/

34-351st Time Home Buyers:% of all buyers, # of mortgages

http://www.housingrisk.org/http://www.housingrisk.org/the-nars-faulty-facts-regarding-first-time-buyer-activity-lead-to-faulty-conclusions/

36 Mortgage Credit Availability http://www.mba.org/ResearchandForecasts/MCAI.htm

http://www.realtor.org/http://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-Price-Index-(HPI).aspxhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/nov_2015_public_outlook.pdfhttp://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspxhttp://infocentral.blogs.realtor.org/2015/03/12/graphics-for-home-sellers/#sf7996259http://www.builderonline.com/money/economics/home-production-to-surpass-1-million-next-year-12-million-in-2017-says-nahb_ohttp://www.realtor.org/topics/existing-home-saleshttp://www.dangerreport.com/http://www.realtor.org/reports/highlights-from-the-2015-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellershttp://fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/corporate-news/2015/6297.htmlhttp://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2015/10/13/overvalued-eighth-straight-month/http://www.housingrisk.org/http://www.housingrisk.org/the-nars-faulty-facts-regarding-first-time-buyer-activity-lead-to-faulty-conclusions/http://www.mba.org/ResearchandForecasts/MCAI.htm

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

37 2015 FICO Scores http://elliemae.com/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_OCTOBER2015.pdf

38-39 30-Year Fixed Rate http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

40 Mortgage Rate Projections

https://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/Mtg%20Finance%20Forecast%20Nov%202015.pdfhttp://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2015/embargoes/phs-11-12-forecast/forecast-10-2015-us-economic-outlook-11-13-2015.pdfhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/nov_2015_public_outlook.pdfhttp://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_111915.pdf

41 Freddie Mac Projections http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/ehforecast.html

43-44 Case Shiller Graphs http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller

45, 47-50 Existing Home Prices, Existing Home Sales, % Change in Sales by Price http://www.realtor.org

51-52, 60 New Home Sales by Price & Annualized, Inventory http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

53-59 Pending Home Sales, Year-Over-Year Inventory, Months Inventory http://www.realtor.org

http://elliemae.com/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_OCTOBER2015.pdfhttp://www.freddiemac.com/pmmshttps://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/Mtg%20Finance%20Forecast%20Nov%202015.pdfhttp://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2015/embargoes/phs-11-12-forecast/forecast-10-2015-us-economic-outlook-11-13-2015.pdfhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/nov_2015_public_outlook.pdfhttp://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_111915.pdfhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/ehforecast.htmlhttp://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shillerhttp://www.realtor.org/http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdfhttp://www.realtor.org/

Have the market information in visual form and at your fingertips…

Nobu Hata NAR's Director of Member Engagement

Provide customers with downloadable handouts: 25 steps to buy a home, 25 steps to sell a home...Offer handouts in multiple languages too.

The Buyers’ Guide

The Buyers’ Guide

• Print the guides and hand them out at Open Houses

• Or use them as an email follow up after an Open House

• Give a copy to homeowners while promoting Open Houses

• Email the guides out to your database

• Promote it on social media

The Sellers’ Guide

• Drop off the sellers guide (or email it) as a pre-listing package

• Give a copy to homeowners while prospecting FSBOs & Expireds

• Email the guides out to your database

• Promote it on social media

The Sellers’ Guide

DECEMBER 2015

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