Upload
adam-bates
View
222
Download
2
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
December 7, 2012
Transmission Needs AnalysisScenario 5/7 Update
2
Agenda
• Review Scenario Characteristics– Review Incremental Resources– Review Base Case Upgrades– Economic Analysis
• Key Lessons (S5/S7)
• LTSA Previews
2
3
Scenario Characteristics
Scenario 5: Drought– Characterized by extended drought– Summer capabilities of existing water-consuming resources de-
rated– New water-consuming resources sited primarily in the East– Water costs are assigned to water-intensive resources– Increased peak load
Scenario 7: BAU – Hi Natural Gas– Characterized by a high natural gas price ($9.55 by 2016,
$13.70 by 2022)– Resources retire in 2018 and 2022 for competitive reasons
3
4
Resource Build: Scenario 5
4
5
Scenario 5 Resources
5
6
Base Case Thermal Reliability Upgrades – Scenario 5 (2022)
• Water availability and higher LMP’s drive thermal/gas expansion units to areas East/South of Dallas and North of Houston.
• New resources East and South of the Dallas Metro area caused base-case overloads
• New resources North of Houston created increased congestion and overloads on the 345 kV imports North – Houston.
Lines
Voltage (kV) Miles Cost ($M)
345 163 457
138 375 451
Transformers Voltage (kV) MVA Cost ($M)
345/138 18808 285
Total Cost ($M) 1193
7
Scenario 5: Base Case Reliability Upgrades
7
*Note: Houston imports were upgraded in preparation of the base case, though “backed out” in reliability analysis. The upgrade of the existing North to Houston imports is likely unfeasible.
8
Scenario 5: AC Stability Limitations
8
Drought
Scenario 5
Incremental Reactive support (MVAR) Limit (MW)
Year of Violation
Austin - 3839 2028
Dallas - 18890 2022
Houston 3400 8827 2024
San Antonio - 3033 2028
LRGV - 2512 2021*
Panhandle* - - -
*Assumes no incremental gas units are built in the LRGV
9
Scenario 5: Most congested elements
9
Most Congested Elements in S5:
•Twin Oak-Jack Creek, Jack Creek-Gibbons Creek, Gibbons Creek-Singleton, Jewett-Singleton (north of Houston region)
•Hill Country-Skyline (San Antonio region)
•Dallas interface congestion
10
Scenario 5: Economic Analysis
10
Options Studied capital cost (2022$M)
Reliability benefit(2022$M)
Capital Cost Adjusted for Reliability Benefit (2022$M)
1/6 of adjusted Capital Cost (2022$M)
Production Cost Savings (2022$M)
Meet ERCOT Economic Criteria ?
Limestone-Singleton 163.6 9.7 153.9 25.6 26.1 YesWatermill-Bigbrown 208.2 153.0 55.2 9.2 0.6 No
Bigbrown-Venus 223.1 0.0 223.1 37.2 0.2 NoLakeCreek-Navaro 104.1 9.7 94.4 15.7 0.3 No
Lake Creek-Watermill 297.4 19.5 278.0 46.3 1.3 NoClear Spring-Hill Country 104.1 0.0 104.1 17.4 3.1 No
Hays-Kendall 41.8 0.0 41.8 7.0 4.0 NoSandow-Garfield 133.8 9.7 124.1 20.7 5.1 No
11
Scenario 5: Key Lessons
• Water availability and higher LMPs draw new resources East / Southeast of Dallas and North / Northwest of Houston
• Increased peak loads increase stress on the 138kV systems in and around Houston / Dallas
• Base case overloads are more prevalent on existing urban import paths
• Heavy congestion North – Houston supports economic transmission expansion for expanded import capacity into Houston
11
12
Scenario 7: Resource Build
12
13
Scenario 7: Resources / Retirements
13
14
Scenario 7: Base Case Thermal Reliability Upgrades
Large amount of wind generation at Panhandle area, load forecasted for 2022 and other incremental resources assumed in the scenario result in:• Major 345 kV line upgrades in Panhandle area to accommodate large amount of wind generation,• Some 345 kV line upgrades around Houston area and other transmission upgrades needed for urban areas primarily driven by load serving issue
Lines
Voltage (kV) Miles Cost ($M)
345 563 1052
138 400 438
Transformers Voltage (kV) MVA Cost ($M)
345/138 19437 247
Total Cost ($M) 1737
15
Scenario 7: AC Stability Limitations
15
* Need for analysis in Scenario 7 because of massive build-out of wind in the Panhandle region
Hi Nat Gas
Scenario 7
Incremental Reactive support(MVAR) Limit (MW)
Year of Violation
Austin - 4579beyond 2032
Dallas 600 19914 2025
Houston 1800 9267 2028
San Antonio - 3803 2031
LRGV - 2512 2021
Panhandle* - 6015 n/a
16
Scenario 7: Base Case Reliability Upgrades
16
17
Scenario 7: Most congested elements
17
Most Congested Elements in S7:
•Panhandle interface limit
•Singleton-Zenith and other 345 kV lines around Singleton area (north of Houston region)
•Parker-Benbrook 345 kV line (west of DFW region)
18
Scenario 7: Economic Analysis
18
19
Scenario 7: Economic Analysis
19
Options Studied Capital cost (2022 $ M)Reliability benefit
(2022 $ M)
Adjusted capital cost (Capital Cost-Reliability
Benefit,2022 $ M)
1/6 of Adjusted Capital Cost (2022
$ M)
Production Cost Savings ($ Million,
Base - Option)Meet Economic Criteria ?
Bowman-Benbrook $ 435.0 $ (188.9) $ 623.9 $ 104.0 $ 15 No
Clear Crossing-Benbrook $ 531.6 $ (145.3) $ 676.9 $ 112.8 $ 30 No
Parker-Benbrook $ 80.5 $ (145.3) $ 225.8 $ 37.6 $ 37 Yes
Wolf Hollow-Benbrook $ 162.6 $ (145.3) $ 307.8 $ 51.3 $ 28 NoFayette-O'Brien $ 241.7 $ (52.33) $ 294.0 $ 49.0 $ 37 No
TNP One-Salem-Zenith $ 444.6 $ (73.15) $ 517.8 $ 86.3 $ 232 Yes Limestone-Gibbons Creek-Zenith $ 391.4 $ (20.87) $ 412.3 $ 68.7 $ 274 Yes
Brown-Zenith $ 860.3 $ 25.99 $ 834.3 $ 139.0 $ 236 Yes Lufkin-Jordan $ 439.1 $ 13.72 $ 425.4 $ 70.9 $ 190 Yes
Navarro-Zenith $ 597.8 $ (57.6) $ 655.5 $ 109.2 $ 208 Yes Cagnon-Pawnee $ 241.7 $ 23.12 $ 218.5 $ 36.4 $ 4 No
Kendall-Hill Country-Haysen $ 338.3 $ 60.03 $ 278.3 $ 46.4 $ 26 No Brown-Hill Country $ 507.5 $ 4.57 $ 502.9 $ 83.8 $ 125 Yes
Bakersfield-Rio Bravo $ 978.7 $ 27.40 $ 951.3 $ 158.5 $ 94 No Cottonwood-Clear Crossing, Tesla-
Graham 500 kV $ 970.7 $ 15.82 $ 954.9 $ 159.1 $ 117 No
20
Scenario 7: Key Lessons
• An increase in NG price favors renewable expansion
• Favorable wind profiles drive interconnected wind on the CREZ system beyond full-build out design capability
• Stability limitations for increasing transfers from the Panhandle to load require further study, new infrastructure
• Increased congestion (due to urban retirements) supports economic transmission expansion for imports into Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio
20
21
Questions?
21
LTS Preview / Summary Data
23
Renewable Resource Integration
23
Retirement BAU -New Wind Drought Hi Nat Gas Environmental
24
Upgrade Summaries
24
2022 Scenario 1 - BAU Scenario 2 - Retirements Scenario 3 – BAU / Updated Wind
Scenario 5a - Drought Scenario 7 – Hi Nat Gas
Lines Voltage (kV) Miles Cost ($M) Miles Cost ($M) Miles Cost ($M) Miles Cost ($M) Miles Cost ($M)
345 376 853
411 1,102 97 173 163 457 563 1052
138 360 339
376 464
204 187 375 451 400 438
Transformers Voltage (kV) MVA Cost ($M) MVA Cost ($M) MVA Cost ($M) MVA Cost ($M) MVA Cost ($M)
345/138 10363 213
15000 235
11521 173 18808 285 19437 247
Total Cost ($M) 1406 1802 533 1193 1737
25
Upgrade Summaries
1 – BAU 2 - Retirement 3- BAU / New Wind 5a –Drought 7 - Hi Nat Gas