Decision and policy analysis May 2010

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the PoorWWW.ciat.cgiar.org

Decision and Policy Analysis Program

Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor

Note the looming climate change

cloud


Contents – BUSINESS plan

• Our objectives and vision• Our outcomes, and some selected highlights• Progress over past 12 months with respect to

Business Plan:– Team– Infrastructure– Indicators

• Exciting new initiatives


Our visionWe strongly believe in the power of information

for making better decisions about agricultural and natural resource investments, from the

farm- to the global- level.

Numbers. Maps. Graphs. Insights.

Better public and private policies


Our modus operandi

Thematically diverse, united by spatial, economic and institutional analysis

Converting data to information to policy and decision insights

Demand-driven by other CIAT programs and partners needs in Latin America

Eco-efficiency as a guiding principle


Our objectives and some selected highlights

• To maximize the impact and returns on investment of agricultural research and development through ex ante and ex post impact assessment

• To contribute to improved management of critical ecosystem services through pro-poor payment schemes for water and carbon in Latin America

• To fully understand the likely impacts of climate change on agricultural systems, livelihoods and critical ecosystem services, and identify best-bet adaptation strategies from local to global level

• To ensure that public and private sector policies provide the opportunity for smallholder farmers to profit from emerging market opportunities


• Impact culture– Impact assessment

workshops

• Assessing impact– CIAT/FLAR partnership

(rice/LAC)– PABRA initiative

(beans/Africa)– CIAT databases

(institutional)

EX POST IMPACT ASSESSMENT


• Ex-post Impact Assessment of CIAT/FLAR partnership.– Regional study in LAC (15 countries)– Last 15 years evaluation (1995-2010)– Assess economic benefits and public-private alliance

importance.– FLAR-CIAT initiative– Expected outcomes are one master thesis, between two

and three peer review journals (comparative advantages among LAC countries, economic impact assessment, institutional relations among public-private sector).

– Budget: 10,000 USD

Ongoing Work


• Defining Impact of Improved Varieties for Beans.– Regional study in Sub Saharan Africa (10 countries,

main bean producers)– Last 10 years evaluation (1999-2010)– Assess economic benefits and PABRA intervention– CGIAR initiative, Gates funded– Expected outcomes are several peer review journals

and a chapter book for the CGIAR (economic impact assessment).

– Budget: 168,000 USD

Ongoing Work


EX POST IMPACT ASSESSMENT

• Strategic alliances– Standing Panel for

Impact Assessment– International Initiative

for Impact Evaluation– Impact Evaluation

Network – Local and International

Universities


• Trial site information • Add, edit, search & query information• Trial planning & analysis tools


Seed Systems in Africa: spatial impact assessment

• Mapped the location of seed outlets of improved drought-tolerant bean varieties in Kenya

• Identified areas where the population demanding bean seeds are not covered

• Developed and applied heuristics for improving spatial coverage

• Investigated communication between producers, input merchants, seed suppliers and researchers



Ecosystem services


Benefit sharing mechanisms• Or, payment schemes for ES• Connecting economies


Reasons for Failures in PES• High failure rate of PES, though

Latin America has been a test-bed

• Unreal expectations for PES• Lack of equity in benefit sharing• Poor or inappropriate

governance structures• High potential to create conflict,

rather than resolve it if implemented poorly

Numbers as a basis for dialogueSocial, natural and economic


Modelling protocol

INVESTINVEST

ENTRADASENTRADAS

FIESTAFIESTA

Tabla de Coeficientes

Tabla de Coeficientes

Simulación INVESTSimulación INVEST

Producción de AguaProducción de Agua Sedimentos LiberadosSedimentos Liberados

Análisis de Impactos en caudales y sedimentos

Escenarios Cambio Uso

Escenarios Cambio Uso

Selección Áreas Priorizadas

Selección Áreas Priorizadas Caudales y SedimentosCaudales y Sedimentos

Generación GRIDS

Generación GRIDS

MEDMED Uso / SueloUso / Suelo Tipos de SueloTipos de Suelo

SubcuencaSubcuenca HRUsHRUs

Red HídricaRed Hídrica

Simulación SWATSimulación SWAT

Escenario ActualCaudal y Sedimentos

Escenario ActualCaudal y Sedimentos

SWATSWAT

Calibración y Validación

Caracterización por Uso / suelo /

pendienteCalcular

parámetrosCalcular

parámetros

MEDMEDNubesNubes VegetaciónVegetaciónClimaClima

Simulación

Flujo Neblina

Simulación

Flujo Neblina

Escenario ActualCaudal

Escenario ActualCaudal


Multiple modelling approaches

Fiesta Invest Swat

Cantidad de agua(mm)

5045

2


Definition of priority sites for interventions and quantification of benefits

Swat Invest


Moving from case to case…Cuenca Embalse Rio GrandeII


Near-real time monitoring of habitat change in Latin America


Objectives of

• Provide near-real time monitoring of habitat change (<3 month turn-around)

• Continental – global coverage (forests AND non-forests)

• Regularity in updates


PARASID Colombia

• Direct usage for developing negotiation position of Colombia in Copenhagen

• September 2009 Colombia were going to COP15 with a figure of 100,000Ha/year deforestation

• Terra-i analysis identified MINIMUM 180,000Ha/year, most likely 250-300,000Ha/year

• Discussions underway for to become a 1st tier monitoring tool for National Parks


Deteccion Acumulada en Hectareas

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

0.90

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

1/14/2004 5/28/2005 10/10/2006 2/22/2008 7/6/2009

Tiempo

Hec

tare

as 0.96

Promedio

Prom + Desv

Prom - Desv

Detecciones

• 76% coverage of country• Approx. 250,000Ha/year average• 90% increase in deforestation

rate 2004 - 2009


http://www.terra-i.org/



Climate change and agricultural livelihoods


BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2CCCMA-CGCM3.1

T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G

GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES

MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3



Decision making despite uncertainty


Breeding priorities for a 2030 world

• During 2010 we further developed the Ecocrop approach (CIAT modified version)

• Moved from expert-based model to an empirically calibrated model

• Developed a protocol for identifying priority constraints under current and future climatic conditions

• Beans, cassava, banana and potato analysed and in press in Crop Adaptation book


Cassava

Beans



Also…

• Lao Adaptation Road map• Colombian climate change road map

– Sectoral analysis for Min. of Environment, UNDP– Lead to the drafting of a CONPES policy document– Now planning to go into sub-sectoral detail

• Many country- or crop- based case studies for range of partners


Where we are moving…

• Pulling it together:– Ecosystem services

• Biodiversity• Water• Carbon

– Agriculture and livestock– Livelihoods C

LIM

AT

E

CH

AN

GE

What governance, institutions and policies are required to manage these multiple land-use demands?


Science for impact: Linking Farmers to Markets

New business models for sustained trading relationships


2009 Activities Linking Farmers to Markets

• Successful hand-off of Central American Learning Alliance facilitation to CATIE; fully funded by partners.

• Development of a collaborative research project on the role of ICTs for smallholder inclusion in value chains underway.

• Implementation of the CUP project (private sector funding) on the Learning Alliance network (P. Laderach).

• Grounding Climate change in Central America proposal built on the Learning Alliance network (P. Laderach).



• Initiatives implemented in Africa (Gates) and LAC (Sustainable Food Lab)

• Methods and tools fully developed and in field testing• Engagement with major private sector companies including

ASDA Walmart, Sysco, Hershey’s, Kraft and Mars• Publications: FAO book chapter, Oxfam policy brief• 20 case studies documented in LAC, Africa and Asia• Second round of training and field manuals and publications

under way (2010 target)



• IFAD small grant – How can IFAD better partner systematically with the private sector in LAC to build more sustainable and inclusive supply chains (Guatemala / DR)

• Ford Foundation -- Assess the effect of public expenditure on supply chains in Colombia as a mechanism for the inclusion of the poor (under development)


THE TEAM


The Oldies

James Garcia Simon Cook Carlos Nagles Glenn Hyman Robert Andrade Mark Lundy

Simone Staiger Jorge Cardona Ana Milena Louis Reymondin Enna Diaz Lilian P. Torres

Jhon Jairo Hurtado Carolina González Silvia H. castaño Leader: Andy Jarvis Jhon OcampoAnton Eitzineger


The Youth

Daniel Jimenez Mike Salazar

Osana Bonilla F.

Ovidio Rivera

Juan Carlos AndradePeter Laderach

Natalia Uribe Nora CastañedaElizabeth Barona Katherin Tehelen

Lea Jehin

Mario Muñoz

Julián RamirezHector Tobón Martin Ayling Emmanuel Zapata


And the positively under-age

Vanesa Herrera Daniel Amariles

Audberto Quiroga

Victor A. LizcanoAngelica Ma. Henao

Carolina Argote D.

Oriana C. Ovalle Yuli Medina

Jeferson Valencia Jairo Guerrrero Miguel Idrobo

Carlos Navarro Carlos A. Ramirez

Antonio Pantoja David Rodriguez


Blade

Arreglo de disco

Arreglo de disco

Alternate servers

Array disk


New positions• Postdoc level climate change specialist, to support modeling

approaches, part core funded – Research fellow position starting June

• Postdoc level site specific agriculture specialist to support projects in pipeline should they be approved – Starting June

• High level agricultural economist to take a lead on ex post impact assessment, core funded – Lower level postdoc recruited in conjunction with IFPRI

• Mid-level economist support staff to examine climate change impacts on livelihoods, part funded by core - Final selection process

• Second senior staff to support markets research pending approval of projects in pipeline – Funding for public policy postdoc, no candidate

• Hopes for recruiting a resource economist in June


Our indicators• At least two peer reviewed, high quality ex post impact studies of

CIAT’s research products – FLAR and African Beans• At least 4 policy briefs in CIAT’s policy brief series – Behind

schedule, but we’ll catch up• Minimum 15 peer reviewed journal articles on topics that fit with

the thematic focus – 30% complete• Influencing at least 2 major policy decisions at the national, regional

or global scale in both private- and public- sectors – Working on it• Provide spatial datasets to at least 30,000 users globally - Achieved• Reaching at least 50,000 farmers with the products of our research

– Depends how you measure it• Training at least 80 key individuals each year in research approaches

– 60% completion


Topography data3 countries in world NOT accessed in last year



Our financial indicators

The general fund-raising goals of the program are to:

• Generate US$1.5m of special project funds per

year to maintain current staffing – 80% complete• Bring in US$150k of self generated income per

year through sale of data and technical services – 65% complete

• Meet institutional cost recovery targets, and indeed exceed them – 40% complete


New initiatives• Vulnerable populations as a target beneficiary of CIAT research products through increased resilience,

enhanced nutrition and greater capacity to commercialise products (proposal sent to USAID for pilot funding, significant opportunities exist in Colombia through USAID)

• Development of site-specific agriculture concepts and approaches to support enhanced agricultural productivity in both CIAT commodities and other crops, specifically in Colombia (proposal sent to ASOHOFRUCOL for fruits, plus significant demand from stakeholders in other crops)

• Understanding the economics and technological demand from intensification in the Amazon (through new CIM expert and the AI-SWEP)

• Adaptation road maps for multiple countries and regions (proposals for BID, plus national level governments)

• Ambitious new monitoring tools for examining natural resource degradation and crop distribution in near real time using MODIS satellite data (semi-funded currently by TNC, large opportunities in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Brazil for follow-up projects)


Impact

Climate Change

Ecosystem Services


Agricultura especifica por sitio compartiendo experiencias (AESCE)

aplicada a la producción de frutales en Colombia.

Cadenas productivas

(mango, aguacate, citricos, plátano)


The Concept• Production systems are highly heterogeneous• We need massive amounts of data to understand them,

in order to act and provide recommendations• Every farm is essentially an experimental station• Every crop cycle, management practice is an event

(trial, n)• Farmer’s learn and adapt from an n + 1 + 1 …..• Learning from collective knowledge far more powerful

(n of 1,000s)• But, all ‘trials’ go uncompiled – we learn, but not

enough


Hypothesis

If it were possible to compile the information on what the farmer did and characterize the conditions of a large number of these experiments it would be possible to deduce optimum practices for specific conditions


The Opportunity• Existence of “glocal” datasets on environment and

socio-economies – these are global in extent, and local in relevance which can characterize any on-farm experiment that takes place

• Capture and delivery mechanisms for information through ICTs – mobile phones, internet– Move information, up, down, across, round and about

• An organizing world – revolution in rural organizations around supply chains– Bottom-up revolution in farmer organisation


Naranja

Antioquia produce más naranjacon la mitad de las hectáreas cultivadas en Tolima Oportunidad

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Antioq

uia

Tolim

a

Cesar

Cundin

amar

ca

Magd

alena

Bolíva

r

Risara

lda

Córdo

ba

Norte

San

tande

r

Cauca

Atlánt

ico

Sucre

Boyac

á

La Gua

jira

Vichad

a

Caque

tá

Amazo

nas

Caldas

Santa

nder

Has

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

To

ns

Area Producción

Departamento Área (Has)

Producción (Tons)

Rendimiento(Kg/ha)

Antioquia 1,163 35,796 30,035

Tolima 2,413 20,818 8,625

Cesar 1,884 20,567 11,023

Cundinamarca 1,440 14,185 9,939

Magdalena 483 9,064 18,772

Bolívar 353 6,113 7,453

Risaralda 156 5,577 10,213

Córdoba 262 5,207 18,836

Fuente MADR (promedio 2002- 2008)



Grounding Climate Change in Central America: Blending science and community

knowledge to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies

• Improved climate change projections for Central America• Methods that allow local communities to access climate

change models to develop local participatory adaptation, mitigation and risk-management strategies with a gender focus;

• Feedback loops to gather, assess and share community-level climate observations horizontally for farmer to farmer extension

• Economic impact and multi-criteria analysis• Public and private policy incidence strategies


Grounding Climate Change in Central America: Blending science and community knowledge to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies


Open Issues

• Expansion into other regions? Can we manage that?

• How much growth? What program size can we sustain?

• The need for real public policy experts, but difficulties in finding individuals

Documents

Decision and policy analysis May 2010