Decision Making in Groups

Outline

I. Problems in Decision Making Failure to share information Risky shift/polarization

II. Video: GroupThink

Are Group Decisions Always Good? Of course not.

Why do groups sometimes fail?

Information Sharing Problems in Groups

Fail to pool unshared information effectively Tendency to oversample shared information

This tendency is exacerbated in tasks without ‘correct’ decisions

Leaders can prompt members to revealed unshared information

Group Exercise

Using the scale above, indicate your agreement with the following statement (write your name on your paper):

The final exam in this course should be an essay exam rather than multiple choice/short answer.

1 105

Completely Disagree

Completely Agree

Groups: Moderating or Polarizing? Common belief:

Groups exert a moderating effect on their members

Groups more moderate decision makers than individuals

But then… In the early 1960s researchers questioned this

assumption

Risky Shift Research Choice Dilemmas Questionnaire (CDQ)

12 life-situation problems involving a central person with a choice between more or less risky courses of action.

The participant's task is to choose the lowest likelihood of success he or she would demand before recommending the risky alternative.

SS complete the CDQ alone, after discussing it with a group, and again alone

Risky Shift Research Comparing individual responses to group

responses: SS generally advocated riskier decisions in

groups! This change carried over to later individual

choices

This is the RISKY SHIFT

Risky Shift Research

Researchers found risky shifts on many attitudes, beliefs, values, judgements and perceptions.

Some researchers found a different kind of shift: Shift toward caution

Risky shift is part of a larger process!

Group Polarization Discussion leads to group polarization:

Judgments made after group discussion will be more extreme in the same direction as the average of individual judgments prior to discussion.

The direction of the polarization depends on the group members’ original viewpoints.

Thus, before we can predict how the discussion will polarize the group, we must know the initial opinions of the members.

Group Polarization

Risk Caution

Cautious Shift Risky Shift

5 91

73

A B E FC & D

Why? Why do we shift our judgments to match

the position that our group initially values?

Two theoretical explanations: Persuasive arguments theory Social comparison theory

Persuasive Arguments Theory After discussion, we can generate more

arguments favoring the more valued alternative.

With the CDQ, arguments favoring risk rather than caution are more plentiful.

Social Comparison Theory During group discussion people actively

compare themselves with others

When they discover that some members of the group have stronger attitudes than they do, they begin endorsing more extreme positions.

Groupthink Illusion of invulnerability Assumptions of morality Realisations Stereotyping Self-censorship Illusions of unanimity Mind-guarding Direct pressure

Illusion of invulnerability Assumptions of morality Realisations Stereotyping Self-censorship Illusions of unanimity Mind-guarding Direct pressure

…mode of thinking in a cohesive, insulated, high success, prestige group with strong minded, powerful leader (with Praetorian Guard). Desire for unanimity overrides motivation to evaluate alternatives properly.

…mode of thinking in a cohesive, insulated, high success, prestige group with strong minded, powerful leader (with Praetorian Guard). Desire for unanimity overrides motivation to evaluate alternatives properly.

Consequences

discussion curtailed, limited alternatives

limits on information seeking and re-evaluation of facts

outsiders less credible so fail to import expert advice

weak contingency planning

Video: Groupthink