DEFENSE REVIEW AND STATUS OF DEFENSE REFORM

Maj. Zoltan HORVATHStaff Officer, J-5, HUMOD, DS

February 2005February 2005

The changing security The changing security environment environment - NATO enlargement;- NATO enlargement;

- 11 September.- 11 September. Defense and security interestDefense and security interestss

abroadabroad Shortfalls, surplus and obsolete Shortfalls, surplus and obsolete

capabilities in the defense capabilities in the defense sectorsector

The The formerformer force structure force structure wawas s financiallyfinancially unaffordableunaffordable

Financial shortfalls in the area Financial shortfalls in the area of maintenance and of maintenance and modernizationmodernization

Defense ReviewDefense Review

„To qualitatively contribute to the Euro-Atlantic peace and security”

To balance the new security challenges and available resources

To deliver a properly costed 10 year plan

To develop realistic, affordable, military capabilities

To transform to voluntary based, fully professional armed forces

Reasons Mission

Objectives

AssumptionsAssumptions

Threats:Threats:• No large-scale conventional threat to NATO and Hungary No large-scale conventional threat to NATO and Hungary

within the foreseeable futurewithin the foreseeable future Potential threatsPotential threats

• Regional instability: Balkans, MediterraneanRegional instability: Balkans, Mediterranean• TerrorismTerrorism• Proliferation of WMD, delivery meansProliferation of WMD, delivery means

Risks Risks • Illegal and mass migration, organized crime, drug-trafficking, Illegal and mass migration, organized crime, drug-trafficking,

environmental and other risksenvironmental and other risks

The ten-step processThe ten-step process of the of the ReviewReview

Allocate resources and finalize Master Plan10

Decide on priorities9

Identify options8

Develop credible and robust costing7

Identify the full implications6

Identify Required Military Capabilities5

Agree Planning Assumptions4

Agree Military Missions and Tasks3

Agree Defense Objectives2

Agree Foreign and Security Policy objectives1

1.1. NATO Article 5 NATO Article 5 OperationsOperations

1.1. 1.1. Home defenseHome defense1.2. Common defense, assisting other member state1.2. Common defense, assisting other member state

1.3. Common defense, against strategic attack on NATO1.3. Common defense, against strategic attack on NATO

2.2. Border securityBorder security3.3. Host Nation SupportHost Nation Support

4.4.Participation in international Participation in international crisis management, peace crisis management, peace operationsoperations

4.1. Peace support operations (military observer missions)4.1. Peace support operations (military observer missions)4.2. Peacekeeping operations4.2. Peacekeeping operations4.3. Peace enforcement operations4.3. Peace enforcement operations

5.5. Participation in international crisis management, other international operations.Participation in international crisis management, other international operations.6.6. Other non-warOther non-war--figfighhting operations e.g. ting operations e.g. Fighting against terrorismFighting against terrorism7.7. Bilateral, multilateral co-operationBilateral, multilateral co-operation8.8. International treaties, arms controlInternational treaties, arms control9. 9. Humanitarian assistanceHumanitarian assistance10.10. Information collection, processing and securityInformation collection, processing and security

11.11. Assistance for civil authoritiesAssistance for civil authorities

11.1. Disaster relief11.1. Disaster relief11.2. Explosive Ordnance Disposal11.2. Explosive Ordnance Disposal11.3. Search and Rescue11.3. Search and Rescue11.4. State of Emergency tasks11.4. State of Emergency tasks

12.12. Air PolicingAir Policing / Air Defense / Air Defense13.13. Frequency ManagementFrequency Management1414. . ProtocolProtocol

Tasks of the Hungarian Defense Tasks of the Hungarian Defense ForcesForces

Force development Force development considerationsconsiderations

Collective security requirementCollective security requirement Retain military capabilities justified by the level of ambition.Retain military capabilities justified by the level of ambition. Operations in Allied (International) Coalition – expeditionary forces.Operations in Allied (International) Coalition – expeditionary forces. Modular, multifunctional, flexibleModular, multifunctional, flexible units units.. Increase number of deployable combat elements.Increase number of deployable combat elements. Enhance combat support and combat service support capabilities.Enhance combat support and combat service support capabilities. Focus on Alliance shortfalls (bridging, MP, water purification).Focus on Alliance shortfalls (bridging, MP, water purification). Focus on „Niche” capabilities (medical, CIMIC, NBC, SOF).Focus on „Niche” capabilities (medical, CIMIC, NBC, SOF). Replace old, obsolete WP equipment with NATO compatible systems.Replace old, obsolete WP equipment with NATO compatible systems. Corps level support artillery, EW, AIFVs eliminated, MBTs downsized.Corps level support artillery, EW, AIFVs eliminated, MBTs downsized. Transformation, modernization, transition to voluntary based, fully Transformation, modernization, transition to voluntary based, fully

professional armed forces.professional armed forces.

Level of ambitionLevel of ambition(as a result of Defense Review)(as a result of Defense Review)

Capability Gaps

NRF Concept

PCC Areas

Role Sharing

Multinational Efforts

OperationsOperationsabroadabroad

One brigade,

no rotation, one shot

NATO Article 5, EU operations, deploymentwith all CS and CSS elements

Two battalion size forces, max 1600 persons, A-B-C rotation

Four transport helos

Four Gripens for Air-to-

Ground tasks

SpecializationSpecialization One shotno rotation

MP battalion

Water purification

coyBridgingbattalion

„Niche capabilities”(Med, CIMIC,

CBNR, SOF, HUMINT,

PSYOPS)

Air policing

The long term approach of the HDF The long term approach of the HDF transformation transformation

2004-20132004-2013PHASE I

2004 - 2006

PHASE II

2007 - 2010

PHASE III

2011 - 2013

1st period

2004.03.01-

2004.08.31.

2nd period

2004.05.01-

2004.10.31.

3rd period

2004.07.01-

2005.02.28.

4 th period

2005.03.01-

2005.08.31.

5 th period

2005.09.01-

2006.02.28.

Legal Sector Human Sector

Budget and Finance sector Military Sector

Technical Modernization,Acquisition

Cost-balanced 10-year Plan

Characteristics of phasesCharacteristics of phases

THE FIRST PHASETHE FIRST PHASE2004-20062004-2006

VOLUNTARY BASEDVOLUNTARY BASED, PROFESSIONAL FORCE, PROFESSIONAL FORCE To establish a new structure, and new dislocation;To establish a new structure, and new dislocation; To decrease the number of the garrisons and facilities;To decrease the number of the garrisons and facilities; To establish the framework of the manning ratios;To establish the framework of the manning ratios; To start to equip NATO command and assigned units with state of arts To start to equip NATO command and assigned units with state of arts

military hardware in order to reach their full operational capability;military hardware in order to reach their full operational capability; To withdraw the obsolete, surplus assets from service, To withdraw the obsolete, surplus assets from service, To improve the working and living conditions.To improve the working and living conditions.

Characteristics of phasesCharacteristics of phases

Training and preparednessTraining and preparedness

To fully equip NATO command and assigned units with state of arts military To fully equip NATO command and assigned units with state of arts military hardware in order to reach their full operational capability.hardware in order to reach their full operational capability.The military units meet the Allied and National requirements in accordance The military units meet the Allied and National requirements in accordance with their readiness category.with their readiness category.

The goal of achievements The goal of achievements To stabilize manning level and the ratio within itTo stabilize manning level and the ratio within it..To reach average level of the Alliance in fields of: operational capability, To reach average level of the Alliance in fields of: operational capability, preparedness, preparedness, and and military hardware. military hardware.

THE SECOND PHASE

2007-2010

THE THIRD PHASE

2008-2013

AchievementsAchievements in 2004 in 2004 Structural changes – downsizing the forceStructural changes – downsizing the force TThe number of personnel he number of personnel has been rhas been reduceeduced (32 000 in peacetime)d (32 000 in peacetime) Quality of training has been improved – NCOs, contracted soldiersQuality of training has been improved – NCOs, contracted soldiers Acquisitions:Acquisitions:

• CIS assets, NBC protection assets, water purification equipmentCIS assets, NBC protection assets, water purification equipment• Vehicle program Vehicle program

Disposal/withdrawal of surplus military hardwareDisposal/withdrawal of surplus military hardware Infrastructural investmentsInfrastructural investments

• Garrison reconstructionsGarrison reconstructions• Housing improvements of personnelHousing improvements of personnel• NATINEADS facilitiesNATINEADS facilities

The last conscript soldier left the The last conscript soldier left the military servicemilitary service on November 03, ’04 on November 03, ’04!!

• 42 Billion HUF defense budget cut in 2004• Defense Review budgetary forecast for 2005 1.76 %, for 2006 and onwards 1.81% GDP share (Governmental resolution, communicated to the Alliance)• New (2004) forecast for 2005 1.27%, for 2006 1,24 % ... 2009 and onwards 1,41 GDP share• Shortfall is approx 1.17 Billion HUF (4.8 Million €) for ten years, an average 24.7 %

New Budgetary conditionsNew Budgetary conditions

Note: Billion HUF at 2004 prices level

Reasons: increasing national budget deficit,

inflation decreasing efforts

Consequence:new plan with new priorities

Managing the problemManaging the problem CConsequencesonsequences

• Impact on the Level of AmbitionImpact on the Level of Ambition• Impact on capabilities, force structureImpact on capabilities, force structure• Impact on NATO declared forces (FGs)Impact on NATO declared forces (FGs)• Drastic saving policy is neededDrastic saving policy is needed

ConclusionConclusion: : Need to review the Level of Ambition, Scenarios, Need to review the Level of Ambition, Scenarios, Concurrency, Capabilities to achieve, Force Proposals (Force Concurrency, Capabilities to achieve, Force Proposals (Force Goals), Prague Capability Commitment Goals), Prague Capability Commitment

(Done, DPQ correction prepared for Governmental approval)(Done, DPQ correction prepared for Governmental approval) PrioritiesPriorities

• NATO/EU declared forces, NATO/EU declared forces, ((NRFNRF/EU Battle Group)/EU Battle Group), PSOs, modernization , PSOs, modernization Balancing the resource-planBalancing the resource-plan:: „Review the Review”, rolling the „Review the Review”, rolling the

ten year plan, free up and reallocate resourcesten year plan, free up and reallocate resources• Cut personal costsCut personal costs• Reprioritize procurement programsReprioritize procurement programs• Cut infrastructure operational-maintenance and development fundsCut infrastructure operational-maintenance and development funds• Cut training Cut training costscosts• Further rationalize general operational-maintenance costsFurther rationalize general operational-maintenance costs• Reduce national development programs, international costsReduce national development programs, international costs• Review and reduce the force structure Review and reduce the force structure

OperationsOperationsabroadabroad

Specialization

For six month

Fifteen cspt helos

Four Gripens for Air-to-Ground tasks

MP trained inf battalion

Water purification coy

(- one platoon)

Bridgingbattalioncompany

One HRF BDE including CS/CSS

for six month

Two (1.5) battalion-sized deployment, max 1200 persons, A-B-C rotation

1000 persons until 2010

„Niche capabilities”

(Med, CIMIC, CBRN, SOF)

+

EITHEREITHER

OROR

One bn-sized deployment

Correction in the Correction in the Level of Level of AmbitionAmbition

ANDAND?

Two Medevac helos

Concurrency option from 201412001200 persons for enduring operations, or

max 6500 persons for six months

+ HUMINT, PSYOPS; SOF from 2010, DECON coy 2010

Twelve attack helos ?No modernization

orΣ 1200

The The new new force force structurestructure

The The new new force force structurestructureLand ForcesLand Forces

2 infantry brigades, of which one with CS, CSS elements (PD)

SOF battalion (from 2010) (D)

Reconnaissance battalion (D)

Engineer brigade, bridging and water purification capabilities included (PD)

NBC battalion (D) Tank battalion (2010)(ND) Logistic regiment (PD) Basic training centre (ND) Manouvre Training Centre

(ND)

Land ForcesLand Forces 2 infantry brigades, of

which one with CS, CSS elements (PD)

SOF battalion (from 2010) (D)

Reconnaissance battalion (D)

Engineer brigade, bridging and water purification capabilities included (PD)

NBC battalion (D) Tank battalion (2010)(ND) Logistic regiment (PD) Basic training centre (ND) Manouvre Training Centre

(ND)

Air ForceAir Force Air Base (MOB), all fix-

winged assets, GRIPEN (D) (MiG-29 until 2009) transport, training aircraft

Air Base (MOB) reserve Helicopter Base, Mi-24,

(ND) Mi-8/17 (PD), support and logistic elements

Ground Based Air Defense Brigade (SA-6+MISTRAL) C2, support and logistic elements (PD)

Air Surveillance Regiment (ND)

-CRC / AOC/ (ND)

-SOF (ND) Support battalion (2007)

(ND)

Air ForceAir Force Air Base (MOB), all fix-

winged assets, GRIPEN (D) (MiG-29 until 2009) transport, training aircraft

Air Base (MOB) reserve Helicopter Base, Mi-24,

(ND) Mi-8/17 (PD), support and logistic elements

Ground Based Air Defense Brigade (SA-6+MISTRAL) C2, support and logistic elements (PD)

Air Surveillance Regiment (ND)

-CRC / AOC/ (ND)

-SOF (ND) Support battalion (2007)

(ND)

Logistics• Central Logistic Base (ND)• Dangerous Materiel Supply

Group (ND)• Support Regiment (PD)• Explosive Ordnance Disposal

and Flotilla Regiment (D)• Movement Coordination

Centre• Printing Office (ND)• METEO Service (ND)• Mapping Service (ND)• CIMIC and PSYOPS Center

(D)• Equipment Surplus Storage

Facility (ND)

Logistics• Central Logistic Base (ND)• Dangerous Materiel Supply

Group (ND)• Support Regiment (PD)• Explosive Ordnance Disposal

and Flotilla Regiment (D)• Movement Coordination

Centre• Printing Office (ND)• METEO Service (ND)• Mapping Service (ND)• CIMIC and PSYOPS Center

(D)• Equipment Surplus Storage

Facility (ND)

Modular, multifunctional, flexibleIncrease number of deployable elements

Enhanced combat support (CS), combat service support (CSS)

??

D – deployable, PD – partially deployable, ND – non-deployable

??

Balancing measuresBalancing measures Review the force structure, further cut non-deployable elementsReview the force structure, further cut non-deployable elements::

• eliminate tank battalion in 2007, reestablish one light infantry battalioneliminate tank battalion in 2007, reestablish one light infantry battalion• close Taszár Air Base by 1 July 2005close Taszár Air Base by 1 July 2005• withdraw withdraw SA-6SA-6 GBAD from service GBAD from service • transfer Kecskemét Military Hospital to local authorities, retain Military transfer Kecskemét Military Hospital to local authorities, retain Military

Aviation Medical Research CenterAviation Medical Research Center• eliminate Central Aviation Repair Facility by 2008eliminate Central Aviation Repair Facility by 2008• overview JLC support battalion tasks and structureoverview JLC support battalion tasks and structure• transfer the Military Prison to the Ministry of Justicetransfer the Military Prison to the Ministry of Justice• overview signal requirements, streamline signal unitsoverview signal requirements, streamline signal units• close/hibernate war headquartersclose/hibernate war headquarters• overview brigade, battalion staff-structures, maintenance units, air overview brigade, battalion staff-structures, maintenance units, air

basesbases

New New characteristics of forcecharacteristics of force

PersonnelPersonnel20062006 20082008 20142014

UnitsUnits 25 00025 000 2233 000000 2233 550000

Integrated Integrated MoD and MoD and backgroundbackground

4 0004 000 4 0004 000 3 5003 500

ΣΣ 29 00029 000 27 00027 000 27 00027 000

III III

III6 months 6 months

6 months

FOCFOC

Deployed or deployable

IOCIOC

All volunteer, professional forces – new life in the barracksAll volunteer, professional forces – new life in the barracks New New ratioratio of personnel (officer/NCO, rank) of personnel (officer/NCO, rank) New career model – evaluation, competition, retain qualified personnelNew career model – evaluation, competition, retain qualified personnel New training conceptNew training concept Improved basic and advanced training, hire special skilled personnel Improved basic and advanced training, hire special skilled personnel from the labor marketfrom the labor market Contracting soldiers – basis for NCO corpsContracting soldiers – basis for NCO corps OutsourcingOutsourcing Improve living and working conditions, new garrison model – Improve living and working conditions, new garrison model – reconstruction programreconstruction program

What we might win?What we might win? By 2006, 6 well-manned, equipped, deployable, flexible, trained infantry By 2006, 6 well-manned, equipped, deployable, flexible, trained infantry

battalionsbattalions Modern fighters, 3D radars, modernized transport helicoptersModern fighters, 3D radars, modernized transport helicopters Specialization (water purification, bridging, military police capability)Specialization (water purification, bridging, military police capability) Meet important Allied requirements (NRF, FP-2004, PCCMeet important Allied requirements (NRF, FP-2004, PCC, EU, EU ) ) Further modernization (organizational, equipment)Further modernization (organizational, equipment)

Extended, enhanced fire powerExtended, enhanced fire power Improved deployabilityImproved deployability NATO sustainability requirementsNATO sustainability requirements

In line with NATO operational standardsIn line with NATO operational standards Based on existing capabilitiesBased on existing capabilities Decrease effects on personnel caused by relocations to another garrisonDecrease effects on personnel caused by relocations to another garrison Effective recruiting systemEffective recruiting system Balanced resource planBalanced resource plan in every year in every year

200002500030000

4000045000

35000

50000

6000065000

55000

7000075000800008500090000 Accession

Process Strategic Review

Defense Review

1998

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2002

2003

2004

H U N G A R I A N D E F E N S E F O R C E

1998

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2004

STRATEGIC CONCEPT

No general (nucl.) threat New security challenges Coop with former adversaries

Transformation – constant review Transformation – constant review processprocess

NEW STRATEGIC CONCEPT

Effective mil. capabilities

DCI (5 areas)

CRO

ISTAMBUL

PRAGUE

NFS, NCS, NRFPCC (4 areas)terrorism

Usability-availability, deployability

CAPABILITY TRANSFORMATIONNear-Term Operational Education

Near-Term Operational Education

New ratio of personnel

Deployability,Usability

New training concept

Specialized capabilities

All volunteer, professional

forces

Force modernization

„„To qualitatively contribute to the To qualitatively contribute to the Euro-Atlantic peace and security”Euro-Atlantic peace and security”

ThankThank youyou for your attention!for your attention!