DEFINE: Project PresentationPresentation at the Electromobility+ Launching Seminar

Michael Miess Stefan Schmelzer

Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Vienna

September 13, 2012

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 1 / 15

Structure of PresentationIntroductionGeneral Scope of the Project

Evaluation FrameworkConsortium and Work Plan

IHSDIWTUWOEIEAACASETimeline of Work Packages

DisseminationAcademic AudiencePolicy Makers and Stakeholders

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 2 / 15

Evaluation FrameworkAnalysing an anticipated change in the mobility paradigm:

From a fossil fuel-based individual transportation system

to one relying on electromobility, public transport and in-betweensolutions.

Assessing the full economic costs for Austria, Germany and Polandtaking account of

the provision of electric energy,

the impact on electricity grids, and

environmental impacts and externalities such as GHG emissions.

At the core of the evaluation framework are a hybrid CGE model and twoelectricity market models.

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 3 / 15

Evaluation FrameworkAnalysing an anticipated change in the mobility paradigm:

From a fossil fuel-based individual transportation system

to one relying on electromobility, public transport and in-betweensolutions.

Assessing the full economic costs for Austria, Germany and Poland

taking account of

the provision of electric energy,

the impact on electricity grids, and

environmental impacts and externalities such as GHG emissions.

At the core of the evaluation framework are a hybrid CGE model and twoelectricity market models.

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 3 / 15

Evaluation FrameworkAnalysing an anticipated change in the mobility paradigm:

From a fossil fuel-based individual transportation system

to one relying on electromobility, public transport and in-betweensolutions.

Assessing the full economic costs for Austria, Germany and Polandtaking account of

the provision of electric energy,

the impact on electricity grids, and

environmental impacts and externalities such as GHG emissions.

At the core of the evaluation framework are a hybrid CGE model and twoelectricity market models.

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 3 / 15

Evaluation FrameworkAnalysing an anticipated change in the mobility paradigm:

From a fossil fuel-based individual transportation system

to one relying on electromobility, public transport and in-betweensolutions.

Assessing the full economic costs for Austria, Germany and Polandtaking account of

the provision of electric energy,

the impact on electricity grids, and

environmental impacts and externalities such as GHG emissions.

At the core of the evaluation framework are a hybrid CGE model and twoelectricity market models.

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 3 / 15

DEFINE Consortium - Partners1 Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Vienna (Coordinator)

2 Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), Warsaw

3 German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Berlin

4 Institute for Applied Ecology (OEI), Berlin

5 Vienna University of Technology (TUW), Vienna

6 Environment Agency Austria (EEA), Vienna

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 4 / 15

IHS, Vienna (Coordinator)

Computable General Equilibrium Model:The hybrid structure allows for the analysis of overall economic relationshipstogether with a higher detail in the technologies for electricity production:

Model output: GDP (12 economic sectors), consumption (public andprivate), prices, wages, foreign trade, etc.

Technologies: coal, oil, gas, water, wind, solar, biomass.

Extensions planned in DEFINE:

Detailed traffic sector (incl. electric mobility and household behaviour).

Repercussions of higher demand for electricity on the economy.

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 5 / 15

IHS, Vienna (Coordinator)

Computable General Equilibrium Model:The hybrid structure allows for the analysis of overall economic relationshipstogether with a higher detail in the technologies for electricity production:

Model output: GDP (12 economic sectors), consumption (public andprivate), prices, wages, foreign trade, etc.

Technologies: coal, oil, gas, water, wind, solar, biomass.

Extensions planned in DEFINE:

Detailed traffic sector (incl. electric mobility and household behaviour).

Repercussions of higher demand for electricity on the economy.

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 5 / 15

IHS, Vienna (Coordinator)

Evaluating EV demand and transport mode choice (CGE model input):

Representative household survey for Austria (1500-2000 respondents).

Stated and revealed preferences for vehicle purchase and transportmode choices (two distinct choice experiments).

Output from estimated mixed multinomial logit models:

Behavioural parameters (elasticities) for the CGE-model.

Vehicle demand: expected market shares of electric, alternative orconventional vehicles (various scenarios).

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 6 / 15

IHS, Vienna (Coordinator)

Evaluating EV demand and transport mode choice (CGE model input):

Representative household survey for Austria (1500-2000 respondents).

Stated and revealed preferences for vehicle purchase and transportmode choices (two distinct choice experiments).

Output from estimated mixed multinomial logit models:

Behavioural parameters (elasticities) for the CGE-model.

Vehicle demand: expected market shares of electric, alternative orconventional vehicles (various scenarios).

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 6 / 15

DIW, Berlin

Unit commitment power plant model for German power market:

Determines the cost-minimizing dispatch, CO2 emissions and marketprices.

Reflects thermal power plants, combined heat and power restrictions,variable feed-in of renewables, storage facilities, and demand-sidemanagement.

Extensions planned in DEFINE:

Additional demand, storage capacity or demand-side potentials relatedto future electric vehicle fleets will be incorporated.

Coupling of the unit commitment model with existing European tradeand investment modules in order to reflect power flows acrosscountries.

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 7 / 15

DIW, Berlin

Unit commitment power plant model for German power market:

Determines the cost-minimizing dispatch, CO2 emissions and marketprices.

Reflects thermal power plants, combined heat and power restrictions,variable feed-in of renewables, storage facilities, and demand-sidemanagement.

Extensions planned in DEFINE:

Additional demand, storage capacity or demand-side potentials relatedto future electric vehicle fleets will be incorporated.

Coupling of the unit commitment model with existing European tradeand investment modules in order to reflect power flows acrosscountries.

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 7 / 15

TUW, Vienna

Electricity market and electricity grid modelling for Austria:Various existing models are adapted to analyse the following issues forDEFINE:

Hourly unit commitment optimization and electric capacityexpansion planning.

Generation of EV load profiles, developing charging strategies.

Effects of V2G/G2V use cases on the low voltage grid: energydemand control, battery characteristics.

Overall effect of e-mobility on electricity market prices.

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 8 / 15

OEI, Berlin

Scenario Development for Germany: electromobility and its impacton transport and energy sector up to 2030

Emission Reduction Potential of Electric Mobility for Germany:contribution of EVs to emission reductions in Germany

Suggested Modelling Approach (Source: OEI, 2012)

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 9 / 15

OEI, Berlin

Scenario Development for Germany: electromobility and its impacton transport and energy sector up to 2030

Emission Reduction Potential of Electric Mobility for Germany:contribution of EVs to emission reductions in Germany

Suggested Modelling Approach (Source: OEI, 2012)

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 9 / 15

EAA, Vienna

Scenario Development for Austria: electromobility and its impact ontransport and energy sector up to 2030

Emission Reduction Potential of Electric Mobility for Austria:contribution of EVs to emission reductions in Austria

The Globemi Model as Input for EAA Model (Source: EAA, 2012)

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 10 / 15

CASE, Warsaw

Analysis of Household Demand for Mobility and Low CarbonVehicles: household data survey and microestimation for Poland.

Quantification of Environmental Benefits: ExternE methodology isused to quantify the external costs of electricity generation and electricvehicle use (including e.g. health, building materials, biodiversity loss).

The Impact Pathway Approach (Source: CASE, 2012)

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 11 / 15

CASE, Warsaw

Analysis of Household Demand for Mobility and Low CarbonVehicles: household data survey and microestimation for Poland.

Quantification of Environmental Benefits: ExternE methodology isused to quantify the external costs of electricity generation and electricvehicle use (including e.g. health, building materials, biodiversity loss).

The Impact Pathway Approach (Source: CASE, 2012)

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 11 / 15

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WP2: Elaborations on the Electricity Market Model DIW, ESEA

WP1: Elaborations on the General Equilibrium Model IHS, DIW, CASE,

ESEA

WP4: Scenario Building for Transport & Energy OEI, UBA,

DIW, IHS, ESEA

WP6: Completion of the General Equilibrium Model & Application

IHS, DIW, CASE, ESEA, UBA

WP5: Emission Reduction Potential of Electric Mobility

UBA, OEI, IHS

WP3: Survey and Estimation of Consumer Patterns and Elasticities

IHS

WP7: Completion of The Electricity Market Model & Application DIW, ESEA, IHS

WP8: Analysis of Household Demand and Data Provision CASE, DIW, IHS

WP12: Coordination, Project Management and Reporting ALL

WP11: Dissemination ALL M8

M1

Legend

Milestones:

M1 – General equilibrium core model

M2 – Technological details on the power grids and

the electricity sector

M3 - Elasticities and micro data

M4 – E-mobility scenarios for energy and transport

M5 – Complete general equilibrium model with

simulation tools

M6 - Complete electricity market model with

simulation tools

M7 – Prepared data for Poland

M8 – Final dissemination report

Workshops:

WS1: Kickoff

WS2: Technical modelling workshop 1

WS3: Scenario building and data implementation

WS4: Technical modelling workshop 2

WS5: Preliminary information for stakeholders

WP9: Quantification of Environmental Benefits CASE, IHS

WP10: Example Application: Poland

CASE, DIW, IHS

M2

M3

M7

M6

M5

M4

May

2012Oct. 2012 Jan. 2013 April 2013 July 2013 Oct. 2013 Jan. 2014 April 2014 July 2014 Oct. 2014

WS1 WS2 WS3 WS4 WS5

Dissemination to Academic AudienceThe academic audience is reached for by

Publication of working papers,

Submission of papers to peer-reviewed journals,

Attendance of members of the DEFINE project at relevant conferences,and by

Inviting experts to the DEFINE dissemination events.

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 13 / 15

Dissemination to Policy Makers and Stakeholders

The non-academic audience (policy makers and stakeholders) is reached forby

The publication of policy briefs, bringing a short, comprehensiblesummary of the results of studies conducted with the to-be-developedevaluation framework,

A more detailed policy guideline, describing a feasible and sensible“Path to Electromobility” taking account of the scientific outcomes ofDEFINE in a manner suitable for policy purposes, and

Invitation to the DEFINE dissemination events.

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 14 / 15

Thank you for yourattention!

Michael Miess Stefan SchmelzerPhone: +43-1-59991-138Fax: +43 1 59991-555e-mails: miess@ihs.ac.at, schmelzer@ihs.ac.at

Stumpergasse 56 / A-1060 Vienna

Michael Miess, Stefan Schmelzer DEFINE: Project Presentation September 13, 2012 15 / 15